Sitemap - 2024 - Phillips’s Newsletter

2024 Year in Review (Part 2)

Weekend Update #112: Ukraine Strikes a Senior Russian Officer (Again).

We Should Be in the French Moment

2024 Year in Review: Part 1

Weekend Update #111--Trump And "Abandoning" Ukraine—Be Careful What You Say

Would Europe Be Better Off Without NATO?

Trump Whispering and Ukraine

Episode 24. False Narratives, Conscription, Ranged Fire

Weekend Update #110: Ukraine and the Degradation of Russian Power

What Europe Can do in a Worst-Case Scenario

War Games and Nuclear Weapons: A Modest Proposal

Weeked Update #109: Ukrainian Land for NATO?

Latest Piece Out in the Atlantic: Biden's Catastrophe

Lets All Blame Ukraine: The Whitewash Gets Nasty

What Europe is Missing.

Weekend Update #108: Ukrainian Ranged Strike is Authorized--But so far is Limited.

A Senior Republican Speaks : 2

US Authorizes (limited) Long-Range Strike

Weekend Update #107: Some Leaders Wants to Tell Ukraine What Peace Means for Ukraine

Episode 23: Trump is Back and What it might Mean

What if the USA is about to Become an Ally of Putin?

The Great Whitewash is Starting

Weekend Update #106: The World Has Changed, the Battlefield Not so Much

Trump and Ukraine: Best Case/Worst Case

The USA is Trump's Now, Europe Must Get Ready

Weekend Update #105: Vote for Harris because She is Best for the USA, not because She is Best for Ukraine (though She is Best for Ukraine)

Episode 22. The Front Line, The Ukrainian Victory Plan, North Korean Troops Arrive

Election Update #12: Is the Democratic Enthusiasm Advantage Already Showing Up?

Are North Korean Troops Fighting for Russia a Sign of "Desperation"?

Weekend Update #104: Georgia Shows Why Ukraine Must Win

Election Update #11: The race hasn't "narrowed"

Military Metrics and the Russian 2024 Offensive

Weekend Update #103: North Korea shows itself to be a Great Ally

Election Update #10 Harris Bounces Back

Zelensky's Five Point Plan is Asking for Ukraine to be Treated like a Normal, Sovereign European State

Europe/Germany Has Failed (Because Ukraine Did Better Than Expected)

Weekend Update #102: Bad News and Good News

Election Update #9: No, Trump is Not Leading Now

The Short War Illusion: The Real US Achilles Heel

Weekend Update #101: Biden throws in the Towel

Tonight's Discussion Post: Military Assessment or Anything Else

Election Update #8: An Election Where Nothing is Happening--And that is Exceptional

Doctrine and Nuclear Weapons: Massive Retaliation and Vladimir Putin

Weekend Update #100: Rather Hard to Believe TBH

Election Update #7: Trump seems to Have Forgotten that you Can Motivate the Other Side

The Precipice of Failure--US Foreign Policy and Ukraine

Weekend Update #99, Certain Debates Should be Over

Election Update #6: Black Nazis for Harris

Three Scenarios for Ukraine--Just Dont Call them "Peace" Deals

Weekend Update #98: A Week in Ukraine

Election Update #5: In Any Other Era the Election Would be Over

The King of Battle for the USA, but not a Game-Changer for Ukraine?

Weekend Update #97: Putin's Narrative is Supported, Zelensky's is Contradicted

Episode 21: Donbas and Kursk

Election Update #4: Any model that is anything other than 50-50 is silly

"Strategic" is More than Lines on a Map

Weekend Update #96: The Abuse of the Word “Strategic”

Election Update #3: The Good News and the Bad News

We Now Know the Last Red Line

Weekend Update #95: The Discussion of Kursk Versus Pokrovsk Makes Little Strategic Sense

Special Episode: Interview with Shaun Pinner: Part 2

Special Episode: Interview with Shaun Pinner: Part 1

Election Update 2: The Democratic Convention was (probably) a Success

Was Franklin Roosevelt the Best Grand Strategist?

We Need to Rethink Our Assumptions About Nuclear Weapons Use

Weekend Update #94: The Kursk Offensive Initial Goals

Election Update 1: The Most Important Week in this Election is About to Start

The Kursk Offensive: One Week In

The Strategists: An Excerpt

Weekend Update #93: The Kursk Offensive Continues

Episode 20: The Ukrainian Kursk Offensive

The Ukrainian Kursk Offensive

Harris Has Upended the Race by Bringing the Democratic Base Home

The Strategists: FDR and Stalin as War-Leaders

Weekend Update #92: Ukraine Strikes Deep

Three Terrible Weeks for Trump

This is Donald Trump's Actual "Peace" Plan for Ukraine

Weekend Update #91

The First Stage of Ukraine's Plan for Crimea Seems Almost Done

The Strategists

What Would President Kamala Harris Do for Ukraine?

Biden Has Withdrawn from the Race

Weekend Update #90: Strategic Update for Ukraine and Russia

Episode 19: A Battlefield Roundup and Ukrainian Strategy Going Forward

The Trump Shooting is not Changing the Polls

JD Vance and Ukraine: We can say now what Trump wants--and its not good.

The Assassination Attempt Will Probably Not Make Trump More Likely to Be Elected

Weekend Update #89: Trump is Shot--Does it Mean Anything for the War?

An Even Worse Letter About Ukraine

Can We Finally Let Ukraine Fight The War it Needs to Win?

Ukraine and the Six Tribes of Europe are now set until until late 2025

Weekend Update #88: Ukraine and NATO

Episode 18: Ukraine and NATO: The Situation at the Front

A Plan for the Democrats to Choose a New Nominee:

The Hubris of Politicians

Weekend Update #87: The Russian Micro-Advance Strategy and How Ukraine might Take Advantage.

Not knowing your Candidates until the Convention is Positively American

The Real Meaning of the"America First" Peace Plan

War and Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific: Dont Forget the Neutral Powers

Weekend Update 86: The Last 6 Months Show Why Ukraine Can Win the War

Episode 17: Mykola Meets With Ukrainian Intelligence

The Crimea Campaign: Boiling the Russian Frog

War and Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific: Allies Could Determine a Great Deal

Weekend Update 85: Putin's "Peace" Deal

The Economic War Escalates

War and Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific: Part 1

New Series on the USA and War/ Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific

Weekend Update #84: Europeans Crossing the Strategic Rubicon

Ukraine "Could" Have Won the War in 2022.

Ukraine Could Have Won the War in 2022

Episode 16: The Biden Administration Allows Ukraine to Attack Into Russia (Finally)

Weekend Update 83: The Kharkiv Offensive is a Russian Strategic Failure for Now

We (Might) Have Done It

Thoughts About a US-China Pacific War

Weekend Update #82: Crossing Two Red Lines at Once

Wall Street Journal Op/Ed is Out

Episode 15: The Russian Kharkiv Offensive

War Games and Nuclear Weapons

Weekend Update 81: Much of the portrayed Russian success is based on prediction

Ukraine is doing something very interesting in Crimea and the Black Sea

US Escalation Policy Enables Russian Escalation

Russian Political Reshuffle and the Profound Idiocy of War

Weekend Update 80: Russia is Pressing Lots, Breaking Through Nowhere

Air Power and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine: The Repeat of a Major Mistake

Numbers of Soldiers Does Not Win Wars

Weekend Update 79: The Lines are Stabilizing

Episode 14:The Situation on the Front Line

Breakthroughs Without Exploitations

Europe Needs Its Own Nuclear Deterrent: Part 3

Weekend Update 78: Two Races: Russians trying to advance before ammunition gets to Ukraine

The Administration Seems to Have Learned a Very Hard Lesson About War

Finally it Looks like ATACMS Will be Sent to Ukraine

A Senior Republican Speaks About the GOP and Ukraine

Weekend Update #77: Ukraine Aid Passes the House!

Episode 13: US Aid is (finally) about to be approved.

Europe Needs its Own Nuclear Deterrent: Part 2

Europe Needs to Look to Its Own Nuclear Deterrent: Part 1

Weekend Update #76: A Tale of Two Raids: Ukraine Has No Nuclear Weapons So Must Suffer

How to Lose a War: Lessons from the Pentagon

The United States: Powerful and Weak at the Same Time

Weekend Update #75: The Russian Campaign to Kill Kharkiv

A Choice Between Weakness and Evil

Ukraine Attacks Russian Shahed Manufacturing in Tartarstan

Weekend Update #74: Ukraine is Holding with a Major Ammunition Shortfall

Episode 12: Ukraine's Strategic Air War--which the US wants to stop

Part 2: Strategic Bombing Update: Are We Seeing 'Bomber' Harris versus Carl Spaatz?

Strategic Bombing Update: Are We Seeing 'Bomber' Harris versus Carl Spaatz?

The Nuclear War that Never Was

Weekend Update #73: Strategic Airpower Becomes the Focus of the War

Ukraine: The View from Europe

Can either side actually advance faster than a human can walk?

Weekend Update #72: The Weimar Triangle

Episode 11: Europe Seems to be Waking Up

Ukraine is Waging a Strategic Air Campaign Against Russian Oil Production

We Need a New Language to Discuss Air Power

Weekend Update #71: Was this the Week Reflexive Control Broke?

This Should be the UK's Moment to Lead

Nuclear Weapons--The Good News and the Bad News

Weekend Update #70: Reflexive Control and Putin's Nuclear Threats

Episode 10: Situation on the Battlefield with Ukraine on the defensive

European Troops in Ukraine--Dont Rule it Out

Direct Messages Now on Substack!

With Sweden Joining NATO, the USA has Won the Strategic War of the 20th and 21st Centuries

Weekend Update #69. Ukraine Does Better in South Carolina than Expected

Two Different Languages

US Opinion is Solid on Aiding Ukraine, But Where is the Aid?

Weekend Update #68. Ukrainians Withdraw from Avdiivka

Episode 9: Changes in Ukrainian Command,

The 2024 elections: Glass Half Empty or Half Full?

Ukrainians sink another valuable Russian warship

A Thank You to Subscribers

The Democrats Need to Make a Bold Move--Now

Weekend Update #67: Command Change

General Oleksandr Syrskyi

How Ukraine Can Win: Kamyshin Speaks

What Europe Must Do Now in 10 Steps

Weekend Update #66: Its always been about Ukraine--Not the Border, Not Spending Cuts

Episode 8: Command Crisis, the state of the war, Americans telling Ukraine what to do

Supreme Command: Its not a Celebrity Contest

AI and Victory in the Ukraine War

Weekend Update #65 Crunch time gets Crunchier

AI and the Future of War (even in Ukraine)

AI is starting to Rule the Battlefield

Weekend Update #64: Crunch Time in Washington

Episode 7: How is Active Defense working for Ukraine

Why can Ukraine win? Because its military is (at least) 3 times as efficient

Ukrainians have shot down two valuable Russian aircraft

Weekend Update #63: 3 months of Russian Avdiivka Assaults

Is it time now for Europe to go its own way?

The Historical Exceptionalism of US Escalation Policy and the War in Ukraine

Weekend Update #62, The Return of Strategic Bombing

Episode 6: What are Russians and Ukrainians attacking? Ukrainian Strategy, Reporting on the war

Why would I write that WSJ article?