Sitemap - 2024 - Phillips’s Newsletter
What if the USA is about to Become an Ally of Putin?
The Great Whitewash is Starting
Weekend Update #106: The World Has Changed, the Battlefield Not so Much
Trump and Ukraine: Best Case/Worst Case
The USA is Trump's Now, Europe Must Get Ready
Episode 22. The Front Line, The Ukrainian Victory Plan, North Korean Troops Arrive
Election Update #12: Is the Democratic Enthusiasm Advantage Already Showing Up?
Are North Korean Troops Fighting for Russia a Sign of "Desperation"?
Weekend Update #104: Georgia Shows Why Ukraine Must Win
Election Update #11: The race hasn't "narrowed"
Military Metrics and the Russian 2024 Offensive
Weekend Update #103: North Korea shows itself to be a Great Ally
Election Update #10 Harris Bounces Back
Europe/Germany Has Failed (Because Ukraine Did Better Than Expected)
Weekend Update #102: Bad News and Good News
Election Update #9: No, Trump is Not Leading Now
The Short War Illusion: The Real US Achilles Heel
Weekend Update #101: Biden throws in the Towel
Tonight's Discussion Post: Military Assessment or Anything Else
Election Update #8: An Election Where Nothing is Happening--And that is Exceptional
Doctrine and Nuclear Weapons: Massive Retaliation and Vladimir Putin
Weekend Update #100: Rather Hard to Believe TBH
Election Update #7: Trump seems to Have Forgotten that you Can Motivate the Other Side
The Precipice of Failure--US Foreign Policy and Ukraine
Weekend Update #99, Certain Debates Should be Over
Election Update #6: Black Nazis for Harris
Three Scenarios for Ukraine--Just Dont Call them "Peace" Deals
Weekend Update #98: A Week in Ukraine
Election Update #5: In Any Other Era the Election Would be Over
The King of Battle for the USA, but not a Game-Changer for Ukraine?
Weekend Update #97: Putin's Narrative is Supported, Zelensky's is Contradicted
Election Update #4: Any model that is anything other than 50-50 is silly
"Strategic" is More than Lines on a Map
Weekend Update #96: The Abuse of the Word “Strategic”
Election Update #3: The Good News and the Bad News
Weekend Update #95: The Discussion of Kursk Versus Pokrovsk Makes Little Strategic Sense
Special Episode: Interview with Shaun Pinner: Part 2
Special Episode: Interview with Shaun Pinner: Part 1
Election Update 2: The Democratic Convention was (probably) a Success
Was Franklin Roosevelt the Best Grand Strategist?
We Need to Rethink Our Assumptions About Nuclear Weapons Use
Weekend Update #94: The Kursk Offensive Initial Goals
Election Update 1: The Most Important Week in this Election is About to Start
The Kursk Offensive: One Week In
Weekend Update #93: The Kursk Offensive Continues
Episode 20: The Ukrainian Kursk Offensive
Harris Has Upended the Race by Bringing the Democratic Base Home
The Strategists: FDR and Stalin as War-Leaders
Weekend Update #92: Ukraine Strikes Deep
Three Terrible Weeks for Trump
This is Donald Trump's Actual "Peace" Plan for Ukraine
The First Stage of Ukraine's Plan for Crimea Seems Almost Done
What Would President Kamala Harris Do for Ukraine?
Biden Has Withdrawn from the Race
Weekend Update #90: Strategic Update for Ukraine and Russia
Episode 19: A Battlefield Roundup and Ukrainian Strategy Going Forward
The Trump Shooting is not Changing the Polls
JD Vance and Ukraine: We can say now what Trump wants--and its not good.
The Assassination Attempt Will Probably Not Make Trump More Likely to Be Elected
Weekend Update #89: Trump is Shot--Does it Mean Anything for the War?
An Even Worse Letter About Ukraine
Can We Finally Let Ukraine Fight The War it Needs to Win?
Ukraine and the Six Tribes of Europe are now set until until late 2025
Weekend Update #88: Ukraine and NATO
Episode 18: Ukraine and NATO: The Situation at the Front
A Plan for the Democrats to Choose a New Nominee:
Weekend Update #87: The Russian Micro-Advance Strategy and How Ukraine might Take Advantage.
Not knowing your Candidates until the Convention is Positively American
The Real Meaning of the"America First" Peace Plan
War and Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific: Dont Forget the Neutral Powers
Weekend Update 86: The Last 6 Months Show Why Ukraine Can Win the War
Episode 17: Mykola Meets With Ukrainian Intelligence
The Crimea Campaign: Boiling the Russian Frog
War and Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific: Allies Could Determine a Great Deal
Weekend Update 85: Putin's "Peace" Deal
War and Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific: Part 1
New Series on the USA and War/ Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific
Weekend Update #84: Europeans Crossing the Strategic Rubicon
Ukraine "Could" Have Won the War in 2022.
Ukraine Could Have Won the War in 2022
Episode 16: The Biden Administration Allows Ukraine to Attack Into Russia (Finally)
Weekend Update 83: The Kharkiv Offensive is a Russian Strategic Failure for Now
Thoughts About a US-China Pacific War
Weekend Update #82: Crossing Two Red Lines at Once
Wall Street Journal Op/Ed is Out
Episode 15: The Russian Kharkiv Offensive
Weekend Update 81: Much of the portrayed Russian success is based on prediction
Ukraine is doing something very interesting in Crimea and the Black Sea
US Escalation Policy Enables Russian Escalation
Russian Political Reshuffle and the Profound Idiocy of War
Weekend Update 80: Russia is Pressing Lots, Breaking Through Nowhere
Air Power and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine: The Repeat of a Major Mistake
Numbers of Soldiers Does Not Win Wars
Weekend Update 79: The Lines are Stabilizing
Episode 14:The Situation on the Front Line
Breakthroughs Without Exploitations
Europe Needs Its Own Nuclear Deterrent: Part 3
Weekend Update 78: Two Races: Russians trying to advance before ammunition gets to Ukraine
The Administration Seems to Have Learned a Very Hard Lesson About War
Finally it Looks like ATACMS Will be Sent to Ukraine
A Senior Republican Speaks About the GOP and Ukraine
Weekend Update #77: Ukraine Aid Passes the House!
Episode 13: US Aid is (finally) about to be approved.
Europe Needs its Own Nuclear Deterrent: Part 2
Europe Needs to Look to Its Own Nuclear Deterrent: Part 1
Weekend Update #76: A Tale of Two Raids: Ukraine Has No Nuclear Weapons So Must Suffer
How to Lose a War: Lessons from the Pentagon
The United States: Powerful and Weak at the Same Time
Weekend Update #75: The Russian Campaign to Kill Kharkiv
A Choice Between Weakness and Evil
Ukraine Attacks Russian Shahed Manufacturing in Tartarstan
Weekend Update #74: Ukraine is Holding with a Major Ammunition Shortfall
Episode 12: Ukraine's Strategic Air War--which the US wants to stop
Part 2: Strategic Bombing Update: Are We Seeing 'Bomber' Harris versus Carl Spaatz?
Strategic Bombing Update: Are We Seeing 'Bomber' Harris versus Carl Spaatz?
The Nuclear War that Never Was
Weekend Update #73: Strategic Airpower Becomes the Focus of the War
Can either side actually advance faster than a human can walk?
Weekend Update #72: The Weimar Triangle
Episode 11: Europe Seems to be Waking Up
Ukraine is Waging a Strategic Air Campaign Against Russian Oil Production
We Need a New Language to Discuss Air Power
Weekend Update #71: Was this the Week Reflexive Control Broke?
This Should be the UK's Moment to Lead
Nuclear Weapons--The Good News and the Bad News
Weekend Update #70: Reflexive Control and Putin's Nuclear Threats
Episode 10: Situation on the Battlefield with Ukraine on the defensive
European Troops in Ukraine--Dont Rule it Out
Direct Messages Now on Substack!
With Sweden Joining NATO, the USA has Won the Strategic War of the 20th and 21st Centuries
Weekend Update #69. Ukraine Does Better in South Carolina than Expected
US Opinion is Solid on Aiding Ukraine, But Where is the Aid?
Weekend Update #68. Ukrainians Withdraw from Avdiivka
Episode 9: Changes in Ukrainian Command,
The 2024 elections: Glass Half Empty or Half Full?
Ukrainians sink another valuable Russian warship
The Democrats Need to Make a Bold Move--Now
Weekend Update #67: Command Change
How Ukraine Can Win: Kamyshin Speaks
What Europe Must Do Now in 10 Steps
Weekend Update #66: Its always been about Ukraine--Not the Border, Not Spending Cuts
Episode 8: Command Crisis, the state of the war, Americans telling Ukraine what to do
Supreme Command: Its not a Celebrity Contest
AI and Victory in the Ukraine War
Weekend Update #65 Crunch time gets Crunchier
AI and the Future of War (even in Ukraine)
AI is starting to Rule the Battlefield
Weekend Update #64: Crunch Time in Washington
Episode 7: How is Active Defense working for Ukraine
Why can Ukraine win? Because its military is (at least) 3 times as efficient
Ukrainians have shot down two valuable Russian aircraft
Weekend Update #63: 3 months of Russian Avdiivka Assaults
Is it time now for Europe to go its own way?
The Historical Exceptionalism of US Escalation Policy and the War in Ukraine
Weekend Update #62, The Return of Strategic Bombing
Episode 6: What are Russians and Ukrainians attacking? Ukrainian Strategy, Reporting on the war