Weekend Update #113: This War is Truly Global

Four global events in one week. Also the Samuel Charap Peace Plan

Hi All,

This week, as much as any, highlighted the global nature of this war. From the Baltics, to North Korea, to Azerbaijan, to Syria, this war is playing out with important results in a many disparate areas across the world. Its worth pointing them out as the war’s growing global imprint will almost certainly play a major role in its ultimate outcome.

Why did the Finns seize this floating piece of junk?

Also, I released a piece about the latest Charap peace plan yesterday—I talk about that at the end.

If you haven’t noticed, Russia is at War with Europe

This week maybe the strangest story happened in the Baltic Sea and showed how the war, and I do mean “war” has been spreading. The Finns and Estonians noticed Wednesday (Christmas Day) that the Estlink 2 power line that connects the two states and which runs along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, was being attacked. Some ship seemed to be dragging its anchor along the seabed near the power line—to snag it and then break it.

Its was actually the second major attack on a European infrastructure in the Baltic in just over a month. Here is a useful BBC map with what has recently been attacked.

And these attacks are only just some of the attacks that the Russian state has been waging against Europe. There have been sabotage attempts against delivery airlines and attempted arson against European weapons production.

These attacks are, if you did not know, acts of war. It;s just that because they cant be seen or filmed (easily) that many are trying to act like they are not a big deal. However, they are no different in reality from the Russians launching a missile to blow up a power distribution system (which the Russians are doing constantly in Ukraine).

In other words, Russia is doing to Europe exactly what it is doing to Ukraine.

In the next few days after this Christmas Day attack, we received more information about the attack against Estlink 2. It was most likely done by a member of the Russian “shadow fleet”, a tanker named Eagle S. In a great departure from earlier extreme European weakness in the face of Russian acts of war, the Finns moved quickly to seize the vessel (picture at the top of the page) and force it into a Finnish port—where it now sits.

What then came out showed how this was part of a larger plan to attack Europe. The Eagle S is an old, unsafe tanker, an environmental disaster waiting to happen. It is also registered in the Cook Islands, and for some reason, was kitted out with some of the most advanced sensors and recording equipment to be found anywhere. It also seems to have had foreign or even Russian military officers serving on it—though this is still to be confirmed.

So the Eagle S seems to have been a spy-sabotage vessel who was actually committing an act of war against a piece of vital energy logistics. For the Baltic states, getting access to energy from Finland is crucial to their independence. Otherwise, they have to rely on energy from Russia, which Putin can use to try and control them.

The only heartening thing from this event is that finally a European state has stood up proudly against these acts of war. In seizing the vessel, the Finns have set a precedent that hopefully other European states will follow.

It would be better if Europe as a whole outsourced its security policy to Finland. If they don’t, its likely these Russian acts of war will be increasingly ramped up. Europe has been warned (countless times), the question now is whether it is capable of taking notice.

North Korean Casualties Seem Extreme—And Mean Something

Almost half the way around the world from Europe, the war is coming home to North Korea—of course not in the way that we might understand it. We are getting reports from Ukraine and Washington about the North Koreans suffering losses in a few days that will either see the first NK force wiped out as a combat force, or lead to even more NK forces coming to fight for Russia. Moreover, there is the benefits that NK will get from this commitment on Russia’s behalf.

Here is how White House spokesman John Kirby described what the US is seeing.

Okay, so what I wanted to talk a little bit about was the situation in and around Kursk. We now assess that North Korean forces are conducting massed — massed, dismounted assaults against Ukrainian positions in Kursk. And these human wave tactics that we’re seeing haven’t really been all that effective. In fact, we assess that they’ve resulted in heavy casualties for these North Korean forces. Our estimate is that, to date, they have suffered more than 1,000 killed or wounded in this particular fighting in just the past week of them fighting on the front lines. So, 1,000 in just the past week.

It is clear that Russian and North Korean military leaders are treating these troops as expendable and ordering them on hopeless assaults against Ukrainian defenses. These North Korean soldiers appear to be highly indoctrinated, pushing attacks even when it is clear that those attacks are futile.

We also have reports of North Korean soldiers taking their own lives rather than surrendering to Ukrainian forces, likely out of fear of reprisal against their families in North Korea in the event that they’re captured.

So losing 1,000 a week from a force of 10,000-12,000 is clearly not sustainable (thus the force will disappear or have to be reinforced). Also, the stories of NK committing suicide rather than being captured shows that the troops themselves know that they are expendable. There was a report that one North Korean soldier was captured by Ukraine, but supposedly he died not long afterwards from his wounds.

Now the big story here is not about these troops being killed or even killing themselves (as horrible as that is). There wont be any uprising or political repercussions for the NK leadership. The big story is what is NK getting for its willingness to give Putin everything that they can (including millions of shells as well as its soldiers and ballistic missiles).

There is definite evidence that Russia is sending NK large supplies of oil—though the bigger question is what kind of military technology the Russians are supplying as well. We don’t know for sure, but the odds favor some kind of significant transfer. Recent missile tests in North Korea have shown some surprising improvements in a very short period of time—as this Chatham House report makes clear.

Yet Western countries are rightly concerned by recent tests that have demonstrated a noticeable improvement in the scope and sophistication of Pyongyang’s capabilities, with North Korean missiles flying higher and remaining airborne for longer.⁴⁰ In 2022, North Korea launched over 90 ballistic and cruise missiles – more than in any other previous year.⁴¹ Two such launches were of the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on 27 March and 18 November. These missiles have an operational range of up to 15,000 kilometres and, therefore, could potentially reach the US mainland.

Washington, naturally, seems intent on downplaying the importance of all this. There was even a report that unnamed sources in Washington were claiming that sending NK troops to fight in Russia was not a big deal for Putin, but something almost forced upon him.

This is, of course, bizarre. Putin is not going to use forces unless he wants them, as he knows that they could have risked a Biden response. My guess, for what its worth, is that Putin is paying in full for what he is getting. And what that will mean is a more capable NK missile force going forward—with important regional implications in the Pacific.

Russia Shoots Down an Azerbaijani Passenger Plane

The war has made Russian anti-air forces trigger happy and operating in a fashion that seems out of control. The result of this lack of discipline (and possibly poor training, etc) was the fact that the Russians seem to have fired one of their most advanced anti-air systems (a Pantsir) at an Azerbaijani passenger jet as it approached Grozny airport on a regularly scheduled flight. Pictures of the plane later released made it clear that this was no “bird strike”, the first Russian claim, or a crash due to bad weather. The tail of the plane was peppered with signs of shrapnel that would be typical of an anti air missile (unless the Russians were arming their birds of course). Here is a picture of the crashed fuselage.

And here is a close up of the tail section in a picture released by an Azeri newspaper.

What makes the story worse (and the possible global impact even greater) for Russia was what happened after the initial error. The Russian air traffic control refused to let the stricken aircraft land in Russia and ordered it to fly over the Caspian Sea to Kazakhstan. Their hope (forlorn as it turned out) seems to have been that the plane would crash into the Caspian—making a recovery far more difficult.

As it was, the plane limped on to Kazakhstan where it crashed attempting to land. It was a real Russian screw-up from beginning to end. It reveals the relatively weak regional position Russia finds itself in. What was notable is the speed with which Putin apologized to the Azeri leadership and how he did. In the western press the Russians narrative was accepted that while Putin apologized, he did not officially take responsibility.

The Azeri official description of the call between Putin and the Azeri President, however, was far more pointed. They claim that it was made clear that the Russians were responsible for the accident, and they definitely brought up the fact that the plane was (rather strangely) ordered to fly to Kazakhstan. Here is a snippet of the Azeri statement which makes all that clear.

President Ilham Aliyev emphasized that the Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane encountered external physical and technical interference while in Russian airspace, resulting in a complete loss of control. The Azerbaijani President noted that the aircraft was redirected to Kazakhstan's city of Aktau and was able to make an emergency landing solely due to the courage and professionalism of the pilots. The head of state highlighted that the multiple holes in the aircraft's fuselage, injuries sustained by passengers and crew due to foreign particles penetrating the cabin mid-flight, and testimonies from surviving flight attendants and passengers confirm evidence of external physical and technical interference.

In other words, the Azeris were not reluctant to have it be known publicly that they believe the Russians shot the plane down and then tried to cover it up. Its worth reflecting on how Russia’s regional position is now clearly weaker than it was a few years ago (something that was driven home in Syria).

Syria and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict

The ramifications of the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria are still working themselves out (and will be for a while). Indeed, this event seems likely to trigger even more changes in the region—and it was all brought about by Russian weakness in the area due to its focus on fighting Ukraine. Its certainly made Turkey even more assertive in the area (and that filters through to the Azeri question as Turkey is Azerbaijan’s most important strategic partner).

The most interesting news from the Russo-Ukraine War perspective was that the Ukrainians were starting large shipments of grain to Syria. This should not be passed over. The new Syrian regime needs access to grain, and the Assad regime received most of its grain from Russia. The Ukrainians are trying to provide Syria with a new source of food, which would put less pressure on the Syrians to agree a continuing bases deal with the Russians.

This one grain shipment in and of itself probably wont sway things. However, if Ukraine can replace Russia as a reliable supplier of food going forward that will matter.

The Samuel Charap Peace Plan

I was originally going to have a section in this update about the proposed “Peace” plan of Samuel Charap, that was put forward in Foreign Affairs. However, the piece ended up being rather too long in and of itself—so I sent it out to subscribers.

To make sure that weekend update readers can get an idea about the piece, I left a great deal of it as free content, so you can see where it was going. You can access that here.

Its interesting to see who is already praising the plan. You might ask such people what Ukraine actually gets from it? There are only vague security guarantees and arms limitations for Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia gets everything it wants.

Its also fascinating/sobering/depressing to see how operatives like Charap. that were clearly helping the Biden Administration, are now publicly trashing their erstwhile patrons in a desperate attempt to curry favor with Trump.

A story of why the US is in the mess that it is.

Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.