Around the time of the shootdown, several Moscow airports were briefly closed. Far from the first time. As Ukraine expands the use (and reach) of drones and indigenous missiles, flying to Russia will become riskier.
Then why would air traffic control not inform the aircraft and redirect it to an alternate airport? It was a scheduled lfight. apparently. ATC must have known the airport was closed.
Russia is a mess. Chechnya is even more so. Kadyrov is about the only man in Russia Putin is actually afraid of. Kadyrov was mad about a recent drone attack on Grozny, so protecting the city from further attacks was very important - hence trigger-happy air defense. But diverting flights from Grozny probably would not please Kadyrov either, as it would still be an admission that Ukrainian attacks were having an effect.
Speaking of shadow tankers, Ukraine should start hinting that only massive Western support keeps it from going after them in order to deprive Russia of revenue. And if military aid stops, those tankers will start burning and sinking with no regard for environmental consequences. After all, American submarines torpedoing Japanese tankers did not care about resulting oil spills.
Well, I think Trump would actually side with Putin if Ukraine sank one of these tankers, so Im not sure its worth the bluff. I know from whence you are coming, however,
It is not only Ukraine, but all the Baltic states and Nordic countries could also join in as Finland has done. But the British and French navies could also do some of this work
Unlike Ukraine, they can't attack them. My point is that Ukraine has some leverage over the West. They can threaten not to accept a bad ceasefire but keep fighting - and fight dirty (including in the literal sense of causing environmental disasters).
Ukraine's government is explicitly opposed to environmental disasters and will do its best to avoid them.
Worth noting, however, that Ukraine just targeted the pumping stations on the oil pipelines from Russia through Belarus to Western Europe. (This does not make a particularly large mess, it's extremely localized to the area of the pumping station, which is not pristine ecologically anyway.)
If countries like Slovakia want to buy oil from Russia, Ukraine is letting them know they won't find it easy to get it. I suspect the Russia-Turkey pipelines will be hit too. Azerbaijan will probably close the route through there after their plane was shot down. Russia already can't run ships through the Dardanelles and Bosporus.
If Finland effectively closes the Baltic route by searching every tanker which runs through from top to bottom, and the routes to Turkey and Azerbaijan are cut, that would in practical terms limit Russia's oil export options to three: via China, Murmansk, or Vladivostok. And China doesn't need the oil since their electric car adoption is going so fast their oil demand is dropping.
There's already a tanker which wandered from Murmansk around through the Atlantic and the Mediterranean and Indian Oceans trying to find a place which will buy Russian oil. (I can't find the report right now.) I think Russian oil sales are going straight down.
Russia actually can and does run ships through Turkish straits with the exception of warships heading into the Black Sea but not permanently based there.
Readers who think that Baltic states cannot attack them should note that some Baltic states have submarines. Attention is drawn to that historical oddity, non-national pirate submarines in the Mediterranean during the Spanish civil war, ca. 1938.
Would it be necessary to sink them? What would be the issues with seizing them, under a "Letter of Marque" issued by the UA government, as suggested here?
If the shadow fleet can bust sanctions on Russian oil, I am sure there must be a way to sell the seized cargo and leave the ship empty. Or even better, sell the ship also for scrap metal thus reducing the size of the shadow fleet.
The advantage would be that the oil would reach the world markets so there should be no impact on price or security of supply. Therefore everybody could just do nothing. The russian naval fleet is in no position to prevent the seizure of ships in their shadow tanker fleet. Of course the effect would be less money to finance the Russian war machine.
When was the last Japemese oil tanker sunk by an American submarine? Was it also what we call supertanker that we have now? There were many oil tankers hit by German, UK and America during WWII but we don't hear about any oil spills from them. Could that be because due to the exposlion the oil normally caugt fire?
BTW you need to realise the diffence in size of a 1944 size tanker and those of today.
Phillips, a “world at war” it is and has been. You have left out the obvious cyber attacks that continue on power, gas, telecom, and water infrastructure across the EU, US, and Canada. These attacks have been felt mostly in telecommunications so far, but that are ever present. I hear about this on a regular and updated basis.
You are right in how weak Russia appears now. Look at MH 17 shoot down in 2014 and compare that to this event. Totally different stances by Putin. And this is just another in a string of losses for Putin and his key allies. Iran is dealing with major energy rationing problems during a cold winter, Syria’s loss. And let’s not forget that Turkey has been a major winner right on Putin’s doorstep and the outreach to the Azeris, as you have pointed out, Phillips, is a string indication of that realization.
Oh, the next big fight will be over gas transit through Ukraine to Slovakia, Hungary, and the rest of the EU. Ukraine has every right to shut that down as the contracts expire. But even more so, could allow the gas to flow and charge very high IT rates if they choose to do so. It hurts what Gazprom can receive either way, and if then puts the onus on Gazprom to cut off gas, not Ukraine.
But what of Putin as an ally? He let Assad be overrun! Is he helping Tehran with its energy problem? No! He cannot and has his own issues with Ukraine hitting his oil and gas infrastructure. We worry about our standing as allies within the west, but Putin has simply disposed of his in their time of need.
There's apparently a video going viral on Chinese social media calling for China to invade Russia and take over the Far East (which was lost to the Russian Empire in one of the "unequal treaties"). I don't think the Chinese government was expecting this so the censors probably don't have it on their list of things to censor yet.
But anyway it's gonna be very hard for the Chinese government to help Russia, or for that matter to invade Taiwan, when the current mood of the Chinese ultranationalists (who would be most likely to support either action) is "We should invade Russia!".
The gas transit for Russia through Ukraine ends in 2 days. Ukraine is currently blowing up the oil pipelines which go from Russia to Belarus in order to disable alternate land transportation routes for Russian hydrocarbons.
Gazprom is currently refusing to reroute the gas through Turkiye (who would allow it), but I kind of suspect Gazprom will fold because they want to keep Russia's puppet Fico in power in Slovakia...
...but of course the Russia-to-Turkiye route runs through occupied Ukraine, so it makes a great military target for Ukraine.
And as predicted, Ukraine has shut off gas transit of Russian gas as of this morning. According to Reuters it will cost Gazprom $5 billion a year. The hit to Ukraine from lost revenues is small by comparison.
I wondered for years, and shook my head, why nobody in Europe is speaking out that Russia is clearly committing systematically different ACTS OF WAR against European and NATO countries. Thank you, Phillips, for speaking this out!
The total disregard of known facts, and lack of strength and strategic understanding from Europe and NATO leadership, is sobering and laughable. Instead of deterring Putin's fascist Russia with strong reactions, European and NATO countries are playing ostrich politics with the head buried deep into the ground.
Such cowardice and idiocy is just emboldening the Putin Mafia clan to follow that path further down, risking our all security.
I think it's actually a sense of extreme arrogance, as well as insular thinking, on the part of Western European leaders. They don't believe that Russia would ever really be able to hurt *them* so they don't take Putin's assaults on what they consider "lesser" countries seriously. I've seen this behaviour in the US often enough to recognize it.
Don I don’t know that it’s shameful and gutless. Each country first must protect its citizens from falling debris. Ukraine shooting down a Russian missile near the border with Poland resulted in 2 Polish deaths as an example.
What I do think is gutless and more so shameful is that we (America) are not protecting Ukrainian non-combatants deliberately targeted by Russian missile and drone attacks on their hospitals, apartments, energy and transportation infrastructure. Defending children, women, elderly and infirm is not an act of aggression, but is the humane use of the American arsenal.
Given the problems that ships leaving St. Petersburg are have dragging their anchors, when do the Finns and Estonians start requiring all ships going into and out of St. Petersburg be inspected and given a Finn or Estonian pilot till they clear the Baltic? A blockade is an act of war, but it seems we are already there.
The Nordics and Baltics are experiencing the Russian threat more intensely than the rest of Europe. Hopefully, these countries can politically lead Europe towards a more robust and independent security posture. The US is infected with Putin sympathizers/enablers.
Great comments and lots of room for thought. Thanks. This is certainly Europe's war. What a bad time for Europe's major countries to live in a state of constitutional anarchy.
As you pointed out, it is also certainly a global war or at least a worldwide struggling competition that is not, for the most part, being fought on physical battlefields. Economic systems are being weaponized, and technical systems that tie everything together are showing their weaknesses to attack.
Both China and North Korea are taking notes. Once I get over my panic, I realize this is a fascinating period. It makes me wonder how historians will look back on these times. Is Russia acting ruthlessly or out of desperation?
I think historians will look back on US and European leadership (to this point) and be very damning. The Biden administration blew it--and Europe has been unable to look after itself.
Dr. O’Brien I know you believe Biden “blew” it and you are probably correct. At the same time a lot has gone right with the strategy and tactics the Biden Admin has followed.
Ukraine exists today, because of American and NATO aid. America has replaced Russia as a major supplier of energy. NATO has grown larger and much, much stronger. The bleeding of Russian capital has helped with the free world’s recent success in Syria.
What I would like to see from this Substack is the recognition that Ukraine is no longer a democracy, no longer has a free-press, does not have equal representation of eastern and western Ukrainians in its civil and military leadership, still has massive corruption, nepotism, and lack of opportunity for all citizens. Massively successful Ukrainians have been dismissed by Zelenskyy from positions of power as he does not want a team of rivals or any dissent in his society or his cabinet.
He dresses like a military dictator in training and acts like a military dictator in training. One example, he dismissed Oleksandr Kamyshin with zero specific justification. This is a person you lionized previously. In your podcast you said people get tired(Zelenskyy needs a rest), or he may have an interesting new position. Head of Ukraine’s Chess Federation didn’t seem like the job the country needs him to focus on.
Why is the US obligated to prop up a dictator? We are failing the Ukrainian citizens, I agree 100%, but so is Zelenskyy and his political party.
Zelensky is certainly not a dictator. The Ukrainian Constitution has some odd provisions including a prohibition on elections during wartime. They have a VERY free press, much more open than the US had during WWII.
If you want to understand Zelensky, watch his 3-season TV series. It's pretty clear what he is. The closest historical comparison might be de Gaulle. His party is basically Gaullist.
Actually I think that's an exact comparison. This is the first Gaullist party I can think of in a country other than France; but it's a very exact parallel.
A nationalized press is not a very free press. A political leader denying travel for parliament is the act of a dictator. A political leader dissolving other political parties is a dictator. An odd provision as you call it is easily changed, the Ukrainians are nothing if not resourceful, ingenious, problem-solvers. Firing people with higher national trust scores like Zaluzhny is the act of a dictator. Zelensky is not DeGaulle, he’s his own person. One that has without just cause greatly reduced civil freedoms in his country during a time when strengthening civil freedoms would strengthen his country. I personally believe Zelensky’s words when he said he would be a one term president. He doesn’t plan to leave office, and is using every tool he has to ensure he remains unopposed.
What definition or traits of Gaullism are you using to describe Zelensky?
Good information, Phillips. Although it's debatable just how much fight was left in Assad's army, which contributed to the rapid conquest of Syria by HTS. It is important to make note that the almost complete destruction of the Hezbollah organization by Israel most certainly helped the rebels in Syria. There were no reinforcements to help Assad from Hezbollah. Which happened several times in the past for that dictator.
That is all true--but Assad's forces were not in the slightest damaged--and had Russia been there in force, they could have provided strong airpower to attack HTS.
As I see it, Assad's army was essentially an Alawite army. Its senior officers were dominated by that faction. I expect they have plenty of fight and weaponry left to protect their heartland in the mountains and mediterranean coast in the NW.
I'm glad that Russia appears to be abandoning their naval base in Tartus. I thought the Russians might seek to keep control of that base in cooperation with the Alawites. :Looks like the Alawites have conceded that the central government will keep their access to the sea. Good outcome!
Turns out the Alawites were sick of Assad too. They felt he'd betrayed them. This was a bit of a surprise to most of the rest of Syria, but it became clear around the time the new government took over Damascus, when the Alawite areas overthrow the local Assad supporters simultaneously and tore down all the statues of Assad.
Vast portions of Assad's army just switched sides.
Thanks, I started reading your newsletter for your insightful and history-grounded analysis but I'm coming to appreciate how much significant information you dig out. E.g., the Azeri statement.
- Russias apparent weakness seemed to be a moment of opportunity. The Biden response was underwhelming, a minor change in policy regarding the use of US weaponry
3. 'The most interesting news from the Russo-Ukraine War perspective was that the Ukrainians were starting large shipments of grain to Syria.'
yes, Biden's too-little-far-too-late approval of long-range weaponry in Kursk was barely a baby step.
It is instructive to note that Trump responded angrily to Biden's tiny decision. He was posting about World War 3 last week.
The Republicans who convinced themselves that Trump is a secret Putin bulwark are so full of it. Trump is fully onboard with Putin's interests. Even if Putin were to invade more of Europe Trump would just spin it away and his Republican minions would fall in line.
"Reflexive control" works better on thoughtless people who react by instinct, rather than logical people who think things through.
Biden isn't very thoughtful. But Trump is COMPLETELY unthinking, and just reacts emotionally all the time, so he's the perfect target for reflexive control.
Except that I think Putin has misread Trump, because Trump is a narcissist, so his psychology is abnormal. Trump's going to require Putin to lick his boots (metaphorically), and if Putin tries to make Trump lick Putin's boots instead. it won't go well for Putin.
Thanks, Phillips, for all the great insight you provide to us. I hope the Finnish action against the Russian spy/sabotage ship is a wakeup call for Europe. Also, thanks to your readers comments and insight as well. I hope a major war can be avoided but also see this as the West's opportunity to put that Russian bear back in its cage. Slava Ukraine
Many thanks for this update. It does indeed seem clear that Russia is waging war against the West on all fronts. Interesting that you should focus on Finland. The Finns know a thing or two about losing territory to Russian expansionism - territory they have never recovered - and are giving a great example of how to react to Russian aggression. After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, they lost no time joining NATO and have now reacted firmly and promptly once again to an act of aggression against their infrastructure by a Russian ship. Hopefully, such an attitude will encourage other Europeans to follow their lead
However, if Russia is “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”, to quote Churchill in 1939, North Korea is the same ten times over. In the absence of free media inside the country there is very little first-hand knowledge about what is really going there, but since 2004 there has been an online paper published in Seoul and said to be written by defectors from NK called the Daily NK (www.dailynk.com/english/). One report this week confirms that NK soldiers fighting for Putin have no illusions about their fate (“no one expected to return”) but have sworn allegiance to their “dear leader” and will indeed go so far as to commit suicide rather than be taken prisoner, as Kirby has suggested. Maybe they all have a suicide pill in their kit with strict instructions to swallow it when taken, which would explain why the only NK soldiers taken prisoner by the Ukrainians so far have all “died” before they could be interrogated. In any case, the footage on social media showing hapless soldiers being picked off by Ukrainian drones is a testament to their lack of preparation and the cynical way they are being used as cannon fodder. But in addition, this is what a "Chung”, said to have personal experience of the NK military, writes about the attitude of the NK leadership: “North Korea doesn’t want a single soldier coming back alive from the battlefield. The leadership will think that returning soldiers aren’t helpful for maintaining the regime since they may tell others the truth about what they experienced, which would stir up negativity about the regime”
Such an attitude would certainly be consistent with the fact that dictatorships that attempt to seal themselves off from the rest of the world eventually come to grief as their population is gradually exposed to leaked foreign media and find out the harsh truth of what their regime is up to. And NK is arguably the most hermetic dictatorship in the world. For the moment, Kim still seems very much in control but who knows what kinds of demons the dispatch of troops to Russia has unleashed ?
Definitely a developing story that will merit further attention in 2025.
I really dont know enough about NK to say--would like to think the collapse of the system is possible, but it seems to have totally cowed the population.
That sounds right. A couple of years ago, the North Korean dictator threw a hissy fit about Kpop and started sentencing people to decades in prison for hearing it (and the death penalty for distributing it), and does his best to jam radio signals from across the border. He's terrified of people in North Korea hearing ANYTHING about the outside world.
He can't actually stop them from getting some information, though. They can tell that there's more electricity across the border because they can literally see the lights.
And there are men who transport stuff back and forth legally to Russia and China... and more who smuggle. The country can't survive without them, and they bring information in.
But Kim will NOT want any soldiers coming back. That goes for the generals too. The generals he sent are intended to die. They were probably the generals who he thought might be a threat to his power.
BTW, this "ban Kpop" approach is completely doomed, but it takes a while. It could buy Kim 1 decade or 2 decades or no time at all, depending on how much the internal North Korean economy collapses.
There's actually a subtle mistake in the way North Korea does things. The only people allowed abroad are the most "model", "loyal", "rule-following", reliable people -- this is to discourage defections. The problem is that this can accidentally select for principled people, who can defect in the most spectacular way. They don't really have an alternative though, because if they instead select clearly unprincipled people, they may just defect for money.
Could you please clarify for us where ATACMs are allowed to be used Phillips. Only against Russian forces attempting to liberate Kursk - ie not anywhere else in Russia? And how about elsewhere in occupied Ukraine ?
And how does this relate to the strike on Oryol Oblast reported in today's ISW?
Its never been clearly stated--but it seems that they can only be used against targets that the Biden administration believes are clearly linked to the Russian effort to retake Kursk. Even then, there are very few left.
Any speculation about the sinking of the Ursa Major in the Med? Was it really bound for Vladivostok or were those cranes being shipped to the rogue state in Eastern Libya to set up a new base for the Russian navy?
Does anyone know about the status of the tanker that broke a cable in November. The last I heard the Danes were sort of diddling around for a couple of weeks. Then it disappeared from the news
Yes, as the article notes: "China has allowed representatives from Germany, Sweden, Finland and Denmark to board a Chinese bulk carrier at the center of an investigation into Baltic Sea cable breaches, the Danish foreign minister said on Thursday.
The Yi Peng 3 vessel is wanted in Sweden for questioning over a breach of two undersea fiber-optic cables in November and has been stationary in waters nearby for a month while diplomats in Stockholm and Beijing discussed the matter."
Serious affair, but I couldn't help but laugh at the "vessel" being "wanted in Sweden for questioning." If only vessels could talk ....
After Phillips’ analysis, I wanted to see and hear him on Ukraine. From this YouTube conversation with Robert Wright, I’d say he’s a very unpleasant character: smug, weaselish, evasive. Uriah Heep with an advanced degree…Just my opinion (admittedly reinforced by decades of disliking Rand Corp), but judge for yourself:
The shoot down may have serious medium term consequences for Russia. Some Azeri, Kazakh and Dubai airlines cancelled or reduced flights to Russian cities. If that persists and especially spreads, Russia is in trouble. This did not get much attention two months ago, but I think it is really important: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/short-planes-russia-asks-central-asian-airlines-run-domestic-flights-2024-10-23/ One airline that was specifically asked to help with domestic flights in Russia happens to be one of those that just suspended flights to Russia: https://www.barrons.com/news/several-airlines-cancel-flights-to-russia-after-azerbaijan-airlines-crash-dd9f66d4 "Kazakhstan's Qazaq Air has suspended its flights to Russia's Urals city of Yekaterinburg until the end of January."
This will put even more pressure on Russian air transport already hit hard by sanctions. Sure, some Russians can start taking the train instead, but Russian railroads aren't in great shape either: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-wartime-economic-woes-slow-040000559.html
Excellent point. Many countries are already reluctant to fly to Russia--trigger happy incompetents in charge of air defenses cant help.
Around the time of the shootdown, several Moscow airports were briefly closed. Far from the first time. As Ukraine expands the use (and reach) of drones and indigenous missiles, flying to Russia will become riskier.
Has there been an explanation for that yet? I assumed it was nervousness about a Ukrainian attack--but never saw confirmation.
I haven't paid much attention. Who knows, there may have been some stray drones.
That was the working assumption in Europe (Spain) where I was when the attack happened. But heard nothing since.
Then why would air traffic control not inform the aircraft and redirect it to an alternate airport? It was a scheduled lfight. apparently. ATC must have known the airport was closed.
Russia is a mess. Chechnya is even more so. Kadyrov is about the only man in Russia Putin is actually afraid of. Kadyrov was mad about a recent drone attack on Grozny, so protecting the city from further attacks was very important - hence trigger-happy air defense. But diverting flights from Grozny probably would not please Kadyrov either, as it would still be an admission that Ukrainian attacks were having an effect.
Thank you Andrew.
Speaking of shadow tankers, Ukraine should start hinting that only massive Western support keeps it from going after them in order to deprive Russia of revenue. And if military aid stops, those tankers will start burning and sinking with no regard for environmental consequences. After all, American submarines torpedoing Japanese tankers did not care about resulting oil spills.
Well, I think Trump would actually side with Putin if Ukraine sank one of these tankers, so Im not sure its worth the bluff. I know from whence you are coming, however,
It is not only Ukraine, but all the Baltic states and Nordic countries could also join in as Finland has done. But the British and French navies could also do some of this work
Unlike Ukraine, they can't attack them. My point is that Ukraine has some leverage over the West. They can threaten not to accept a bad ceasefire but keep fighting - and fight dirty (including in the literal sense of causing environmental disasters).
Ukraine's government is explicitly opposed to environmental disasters and will do its best to avoid them.
Worth noting, however, that Ukraine just targeted the pumping stations on the oil pipelines from Russia through Belarus to Western Europe. (This does not make a particularly large mess, it's extremely localized to the area of the pumping station, which is not pristine ecologically anyway.)
If countries like Slovakia want to buy oil from Russia, Ukraine is letting them know they won't find it easy to get it. I suspect the Russia-Turkey pipelines will be hit too. Azerbaijan will probably close the route through there after their plane was shot down. Russia already can't run ships through the Dardanelles and Bosporus.
If Finland effectively closes the Baltic route by searching every tanker which runs through from top to bottom, and the routes to Turkey and Azerbaijan are cut, that would in practical terms limit Russia's oil export options to three: via China, Murmansk, or Vladivostok. And China doesn't need the oil since their electric car adoption is going so fast their oil demand is dropping.
There's already a tanker which wandered from Murmansk around through the Atlantic and the Mediterranean and Indian Oceans trying to find a place which will buy Russian oil. (I can't find the report right now.) I think Russian oil sales are going straight down.
Russia actually can and does run ships through Turkish straits with the exception of warships heading into the Black Sea but not permanently based there.
Readers who think that Baltic states cannot attack them should note that some Baltic states have submarines. Attention is drawn to that historical oddity, non-national pirate submarines in the Mediterranean during the Spanish civil war, ca. 1938.
I mean legally, not physically. Attacking a tanker is an act of war. Ukraine is in a war already, NATO countries around the Baltic Sea aren't.
Would it be necessary to sink them? What would be the issues with seizing them, under a "Letter of Marque" issued by the UA government, as suggested here?
https://patrickfox.substack.com/p/lets-fck-with-vlad-part-4?utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
If Somali pirates can do it, I am sure other enterprising individuals could be found if they are properly motivated.
NATO, EU & Co could condemn it and do nothing - they are experts in this domain at this point...
But what would they do with them afterwards? Besides, it's a lot easier just to sabotage a ship (apparently they did that with Ursa Major).
If the shadow fleet can bust sanctions on Russian oil, I am sure there must be a way to sell the seized cargo and leave the ship empty. Or even better, sell the ship also for scrap metal thus reducing the size of the shadow fleet.
The advantage would be that the oil would reach the world markets so there should be no impact on price or security of supply. Therefore everybody could just do nothing. The russian naval fleet is in no position to prevent the seizure of ships in their shadow tanker fleet. Of course the effect would be less money to finance the Russian war machine.
Sounds good. But still it is much easier to sabotage ships, especially if it's just disabling rather than sinking them.
When was the last Japemese oil tanker sunk by an American submarine? Was it also what we call supertanker that we have now? There were many oil tankers hit by German, UK and America during WWII but we don't hear about any oil spills from them. Could that be because due to the exposlion the oil normally caugt fire?
BTW you need to realise the diffence in size of a 1944 size tanker and those of today.
Russia does not have supertankers.
Phillips, a “world at war” it is and has been. You have left out the obvious cyber attacks that continue on power, gas, telecom, and water infrastructure across the EU, US, and Canada. These attacks have been felt mostly in telecommunications so far, but that are ever present. I hear about this on a regular and updated basis.
You are right in how weak Russia appears now. Look at MH 17 shoot down in 2014 and compare that to this event. Totally different stances by Putin. And this is just another in a string of losses for Putin and his key allies. Iran is dealing with major energy rationing problems during a cold winter, Syria’s loss. And let’s not forget that Turkey has been a major winner right on Putin’s doorstep and the outreach to the Azeris, as you have pointed out, Phillips, is a string indication of that realization.
Oh, the next big fight will be over gas transit through Ukraine to Slovakia, Hungary, and the rest of the EU. Ukraine has every right to shut that down as the contracts expire. But even more so, could allow the gas to flow and charge very high IT rates if they choose to do so. It hurts what Gazprom can receive either way, and if then puts the onus on Gazprom to cut off gas, not Ukraine.
But what of Putin as an ally? He let Assad be overrun! Is he helping Tehran with its energy problem? No! He cannot and has his own issues with Ukraine hitting his oil and gas infrastructure. We worry about our standing as allies within the west, but Putin has simply disposed of his in their time of need.
Entirely right Paul--it has been a world-spanning war. I was just discussing things from the past week in this substack, but the point is well taken.
There's apparently a video going viral on Chinese social media calling for China to invade Russia and take over the Far East (which was lost to the Russian Empire in one of the "unequal treaties"). I don't think the Chinese government was expecting this so the censors probably don't have it on their list of things to censor yet.
But anyway it's gonna be very hard for the Chinese government to help Russia, or for that matter to invade Taiwan, when the current mood of the Chinese ultranationalists (who would be most likely to support either action) is "We should invade Russia!".
The gas transit for Russia through Ukraine ends in 2 days. Ukraine is currently blowing up the oil pipelines which go from Russia to Belarus in order to disable alternate land transportation routes for Russian hydrocarbons.
Gazprom is currently refusing to reroute the gas through Turkiye (who would allow it), but I kind of suspect Gazprom will fold because they want to keep Russia's puppet Fico in power in Slovakia...
...but of course the Russia-to-Turkiye route runs through occupied Ukraine, so it makes a great military target for Ukraine.
And as predicted, Ukraine has shut off gas transit of Russian gas as of this morning. According to Reuters it will cost Gazprom $5 billion a year. The hit to Ukraine from lost revenues is small by comparison.
I wondered for years, and shook my head, why nobody in Europe is speaking out that Russia is clearly committing systematically different ACTS OF WAR against European and NATO countries. Thank you, Phillips, for speaking this out!
The total disregard of known facts, and lack of strength and strategic understanding from Europe and NATO leadership, is sobering and laughable. Instead of deterring Putin's fascist Russia with strong reactions, European and NATO countries are playing ostrich politics with the head buried deep into the ground.
Such cowardice and idiocy is just emboldening the Putin Mafia clan to follow that path further down, risking our all security.
I fear you are fight Andy. Putin has learned that Europe is too scared of its own shadow to defend itself.
I think it's actually a sense of extreme arrogance, as well as insular thinking, on the part of Western European leaders. They don't believe that Russia would ever really be able to hurt *them* so they don't take Putin's assaults on what they consider "lesser" countries seriously. I've seen this behaviour in the US often enough to recognize it.
Not shooting down Russian drones or missiles that enter NATO airspace is shameful and gutless. (Romania, Poland, Baltics)
https://cepa.org/article/russian-incursions-expose-natos-frail-air-defenses/
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/09/10/what-to-make-of-russian-drones-in-nato-airspace-a86312
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn09234xxn1o
Don I don’t know that it’s shameful and gutless. Each country first must protect its citizens from falling debris. Ukraine shooting down a Russian missile near the border with Poland resulted in 2 Polish deaths as an example.
What I do think is gutless and more so shameful is that we (America) are not protecting Ukrainian non-combatants deliberately targeted by Russian missile and drone attacks on their hospitals, apartments, energy and transportation infrastructure. Defending children, women, elderly and infirm is not an act of aggression, but is the humane use of the American arsenal.
I guess that may have been a US decision? (I more than agree that it should have been done long ago.)
Given the problems that ships leaving St. Petersburg are have dragging their anchors, when do the Finns and Estonians start requiring all ships going into and out of St. Petersburg be inspected and given a Finn or Estonian pilot till they clear the Baltic? A blockade is an act of war, but it seems we are already there.
They certainly might do lots more escorting
If I were Finland I'd require that immediately. Who is to stop them?
The Nordics and Baltics are experiencing the Russian threat more intensely than the rest of Europe. Hopefully, these countries can politically lead Europe towards a more robust and independent security posture. The US is infected with Putin sympathizers/enablers.
We can but hope Mark. The US and Germany wont provide the leadership--for now at least.
I’m quite worried for Germany. Did you see Musk’s latest statements in support for AfD?
Great comments and lots of room for thought. Thanks. This is certainly Europe's war. What a bad time for Europe's major countries to live in a state of constitutional anarchy.
As you pointed out, it is also certainly a global war or at least a worldwide struggling competition that is not, for the most part, being fought on physical battlefields. Economic systems are being weaponized, and technical systems that tie everything together are showing their weaknesses to attack.
Both China and North Korea are taking notes. Once I get over my panic, I realize this is a fascinating period. It makes me wonder how historians will look back on these times. Is Russia acting ruthlessly or out of desperation?
I think historians will look back on US and European leadership (to this point) and be very damning. The Biden administration blew it--and Europe has been unable to look after itself.
Dr. O’Brien I know you believe Biden “blew” it and you are probably correct. At the same time a lot has gone right with the strategy and tactics the Biden Admin has followed.
Ukraine exists today, because of American and NATO aid. America has replaced Russia as a major supplier of energy. NATO has grown larger and much, much stronger. The bleeding of Russian capital has helped with the free world’s recent success in Syria.
What I would like to see from this Substack is the recognition that Ukraine is no longer a democracy, no longer has a free-press, does not have equal representation of eastern and western Ukrainians in its civil and military leadership, still has massive corruption, nepotism, and lack of opportunity for all citizens. Massively successful Ukrainians have been dismissed by Zelenskyy from positions of power as he does not want a team of rivals or any dissent in his society or his cabinet.
He dresses like a military dictator in training and acts like a military dictator in training. One example, he dismissed Oleksandr Kamyshin with zero specific justification. This is a person you lionized previously. In your podcast you said people get tired(Zelenskyy needs a rest), or he may have an interesting new position. Head of Ukraine’s Chess Federation didn’t seem like the job the country needs him to focus on.
Why is the US obligated to prop up a dictator? We are failing the Ukrainian citizens, I agree 100%, but so is Zelenskyy and his political party.
Zelensky is certainly not a dictator. The Ukrainian Constitution has some odd provisions including a prohibition on elections during wartime. They have a VERY free press, much more open than the US had during WWII.
If you want to understand Zelensky, watch his 3-season TV series. It's pretty clear what he is. The closest historical comparison might be de Gaulle. His party is basically Gaullist.
Actually I think that's an exact comparison. This is the first Gaullist party I can think of in a country other than France; but it's a very exact parallel.
I'm personally not a Gaullist and there are certainly problems with Gaullism. But it's OK.
https://rsf.org/en/shrinking-press-freedom-ukraine-urgent-need-implement-roadmap-right-information
https://www.npr.org/2022/07/08/1110577439/zelenskyy-has-consolidated-ukraines-tv-outlets-and-dissolved-rival-political-par
https://freedomhouse.org/country/ukraine/freedom-world/2024
https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/10/30/ukraine-new-law-raises-religious-freedom-concerns
A nationalized press is not a very free press. A political leader denying travel for parliament is the act of a dictator. A political leader dissolving other political parties is a dictator. An odd provision as you call it is easily changed, the Ukrainians are nothing if not resourceful, ingenious, problem-solvers. Firing people with higher national trust scores like Zaluzhny is the act of a dictator. Zelensky is not DeGaulle, he’s his own person. One that has without just cause greatly reduced civil freedoms in his country during a time when strengthening civil freedoms would strengthen his country. I personally believe Zelensky’s words when he said he would be a one term president. He doesn’t plan to leave office, and is using every tool he has to ensure he remains unopposed.
What definition or traits of Gaullism are you using to describe Zelensky?
Good information, Phillips. Although it's debatable just how much fight was left in Assad's army, which contributed to the rapid conquest of Syria by HTS. It is important to make note that the almost complete destruction of the Hezbollah organization by Israel most certainly helped the rebels in Syria. There were no reinforcements to help Assad from Hezbollah. Which happened several times in the past for that dictator.
That is all true--but Assad's forces were not in the slightest damaged--and had Russia been there in force, they could have provided strong airpower to attack HTS.
As I see it, Assad's army was essentially an Alawite army. Its senior officers were dominated by that faction. I expect they have plenty of fight and weaponry left to protect their heartland in the mountains and mediterranean coast in the NW.
I'm glad that Russia appears to be abandoning their naval base in Tartus. I thought the Russians might seek to keep control of that base in cooperation with the Alawites. :Looks like the Alawites have conceded that the central government will keep their access to the sea. Good outcome!
Turns out the Alawites were sick of Assad too. They felt he'd betrayed them. This was a bit of a surprise to most of the rest of Syria, but it became clear around the time the new government took over Damascus, when the Alawite areas overthrow the local Assad supporters simultaneously and tore down all the statues of Assad.
Vast portions of Assad's army just switched sides.
Thanks, I started reading your newsletter for your insightful and history-grounded analysis but I'm coming to appreciate how much significant information you dig out. E.g., the Azeri statement.
Appreciate that Spencer--worth noting that the Azeris have been even tougher in the last few hours
Another newsletter chock-full of information - thank you
1. 'It would be better if Europe as a whole outsourced its security policy to Finland.'
https://cepa.org/article/finland-gets-russia-so-listen/
- or at least follow Finland's lead
2. 'This is, of course, bizarre. Putin is not going to use forces unless he wants them, as he knows that they could have risked a Biden response.'
'North Korea Joining Russia’s War Is a Sign of Weakness
Instead of leveraging Moscow’s faltering prospects by upping aid to Ukraine, Western leaders are paralyzed by fright.'
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/05/russia-north-korea-ukraine-war-china-biden-escalation/
- Russias apparent weakness seemed to be a moment of opportunity. The Biden response was underwhelming, a minor change in policy regarding the use of US weaponry
3. 'The most interesting news from the Russo-Ukraine War perspective was that the Ukrainians were starting large shipments of grain to Syria.'
- in contrast to #2 above, an opportunity seized
Appreciate that Ron--glad you are finding it useful. Yes, the Ukrainians have moved quickly (unlike the US and most European states)
yes, Biden's too-little-far-too-late approval of long-range weaponry in Kursk was barely a baby step.
It is instructive to note that Trump responded angrily to Biden's tiny decision. He was posting about World War 3 last week.
The Republicans who convinced themselves that Trump is a secret Putin bulwark are so full of it. Trump is fully onboard with Putin's interests. Even if Putin were to invade more of Europe Trump would just spin it away and his Republican minions would fall in line.
Trump is acting like he is more under Putin's reflexive control than Biden--no doubt.
"Reflexive control" works better on thoughtless people who react by instinct, rather than logical people who think things through.
Biden isn't very thoughtful. But Trump is COMPLETELY unthinking, and just reacts emotionally all the time, so he's the perfect target for reflexive control.
Except that I think Putin has misread Trump, because Trump is a narcissist, so his psychology is abnormal. Trump's going to require Putin to lick his boots (metaphorically), and if Putin tries to make Trump lick Putin's boots instead. it won't go well for Putin.
Thanks, Phillips, for all the great insight you provide to us. I hope the Finnish action against the Russian spy/sabotage ship is a wakeup call for Europe. Also, thanks to your readers comments and insight as well. I hope a major war can be avoided but also see this as the West's opportunity to put that Russian bear back in its cage. Slava Ukraine
The Finnish response is one of the few heartening signs from Europe lately. And the reader comments are fabulous--I learn lots.
Many thanks for this update. It does indeed seem clear that Russia is waging war against the West on all fronts. Interesting that you should focus on Finland. The Finns know a thing or two about losing territory to Russian expansionism - territory they have never recovered - and are giving a great example of how to react to Russian aggression. After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, they lost no time joining NATO and have now reacted firmly and promptly once again to an act of aggression against their infrastructure by a Russian ship. Hopefully, such an attitude will encourage other Europeans to follow their lead
However, if Russia is “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”, to quote Churchill in 1939, North Korea is the same ten times over. In the absence of free media inside the country there is very little first-hand knowledge about what is really going there, but since 2004 there has been an online paper published in Seoul and said to be written by defectors from NK called the Daily NK (www.dailynk.com/english/). One report this week confirms that NK soldiers fighting for Putin have no illusions about their fate (“no one expected to return”) but have sworn allegiance to their “dear leader” and will indeed go so far as to commit suicide rather than be taken prisoner, as Kirby has suggested. Maybe they all have a suicide pill in their kit with strict instructions to swallow it when taken, which would explain why the only NK soldiers taken prisoner by the Ukrainians so far have all “died” before they could be interrogated. In any case, the footage on social media showing hapless soldiers being picked off by Ukrainian drones is a testament to their lack of preparation and the cynical way they are being used as cannon fodder. But in addition, this is what a "Chung”, said to have personal experience of the NK military, writes about the attitude of the NK leadership: “North Korea doesn’t want a single soldier coming back alive from the battlefield. The leadership will think that returning soldiers aren’t helpful for maintaining the regime since they may tell others the truth about what they experienced, which would stir up negativity about the regime”
Such an attitude would certainly be consistent with the fact that dictatorships that attempt to seal themselves off from the rest of the world eventually come to grief as their population is gradually exposed to leaked foreign media and find out the harsh truth of what their regime is up to. And NK is arguably the most hermetic dictatorship in the world. For the moment, Kim still seems very much in control but who knows what kinds of demons the dispatch of troops to Russia has unleashed ?
Definitely a developing story that will merit further attention in 2025.
I really dont know enough about NK to say--would like to think the collapse of the system is possible, but it seems to have totally cowed the population.
That sounds right. A couple of years ago, the North Korean dictator threw a hissy fit about Kpop and started sentencing people to decades in prison for hearing it (and the death penalty for distributing it), and does his best to jam radio signals from across the border. He's terrified of people in North Korea hearing ANYTHING about the outside world.
He can't actually stop them from getting some information, though. They can tell that there's more electricity across the border because they can literally see the lights.
And there are men who transport stuff back and forth legally to Russia and China... and more who smuggle. The country can't survive without them, and they bring information in.
But Kim will NOT want any soldiers coming back. That goes for the generals too. The generals he sent are intended to die. They were probably the generals who he thought might be a threat to his power.
BTW, this "ban Kpop" approach is completely doomed, but it takes a while. It could buy Kim 1 decade or 2 decades or no time at all, depending on how much the internal North Korean economy collapses.
https://www.dailynk.com/english/n-korea-pays-farm-workers-in-devalued-currency-instead-of-grain/
This is a sign that the North Korean economy is very fragile
There's actually a subtle mistake in the way North Korea does things. The only people allowed abroad are the most "model", "loyal", "rule-following", reliable people -- this is to discourage defections. The problem is that this can accidentally select for principled people, who can defect in the most spectacular way. They don't really have an alternative though, because if they instead select clearly unprincipled people, they may just defect for money.
Could you please clarify for us where ATACMs are allowed to be used Phillips. Only against Russian forces attempting to liberate Kursk - ie not anywhere else in Russia? And how about elsewhere in occupied Ukraine ?
And how does this relate to the strike on Oryol Oblast reported in today's ISW?
Its never been clearly stated--but it seems that they can only be used against targets that the Biden administration believes are clearly linked to the Russian effort to retake Kursk. Even then, there are very few left.
Any speculation about the sinking of the Ursa Major in the Med? Was it really bound for Vladivostok or were those cranes being shipped to the rogue state in Eastern Libya to set up a new base for the Russian navy?
I've not seen anything definite on this--but please share if you have good info
Thanks for highlighting that incident. I totally missed it: https://kyivindependent.com/russian-cargo-ship-ursa-major-sinks-in-mediterranean-after-explosion/
Does anyone know about the status of the tanker that broke a cable in November. The last I heard the Danes were sort of diddling around for a couple of weeks. Then it disappeared from the news
Is this the CHinese one? I think its still impounded.
Yes, as the article notes: "China has allowed representatives from Germany, Sweden, Finland and Denmark to board a Chinese bulk carrier at the center of an investigation into Baltic Sea cable breaches, the Danish foreign minister said on Thursday.
The Yi Peng 3 vessel is wanted in Sweden for questioning over a breach of two undersea fiber-optic cables in November and has been stationary in waters nearby for a month while diplomats in Stockholm and Beijing discussed the matter."
Serious affair, but I couldn't help but laugh at the "vessel" being "wanted in Sweden for questioning." If only vessels could talk ....
Missed that one too, but here's a recent update: https://www.voanews.com/a/china-lets-sweden-finland-germany-denmark-board-ship-in-cable-breach-case/7906994.html
Thanks Katie
Charap seems to be an awful human being.
After Phillips’ analysis, I wanted to see and hear him on Ukraine. From this YouTube conversation with Robert Wright, I’d say he’s a very unpleasant character: smug, weaselish, evasive. Uriah Heep with an advanced degree…Just my opinion (admittedly reinforced by decades of disliking Rand Corp), but judge for yourself:
https://youtu.be/5u1Jf1sBSjw?si=KKoWmqytBqrSJsWi
LOL - telling it like it is!