We (Might) Have Done It

The Biden Administration Is Changing Again--and Why This Change Matters

Hi All,

Evening Update—well reports are now circulating that President Biden has given some kind of instruction that Ukraine can fire US systems into Russia. So the “Might” in the title looks increasingly unnecessary. That was quick (and of course far too long at the same time).

It looks like Ukraine might have won this round—more quickly than expected. Though of course it took far too long to get to this point than it should have. If the Biden administration is about to make this dramatic change in policy, a very important set of strategic and tactical benefits could soon accrue to Ukraine. I thought I would outline them for you.

The Change

The Biden Administration is doing what it always does when it changes its stance on weapons for Ukraine—starts leaking like a sieve to the Press. It is now setting the stage for a change in policy in allowing the Ukrainians to fire US-supplied weapons at targets in Russia. In particular, when named officials, such as Secretary of State Blinken in this case, attach their names to stories about policy changes, its most likely going to happen.

Indeed, maybe the best sign was that Secretary Blinken hinted publicly that a change was in the air. He said during his visit to Moldova a few hours ago that the US will “adapt and adjust as necessary” when it comes to firing into Russia. And the change seems to be happening very fast. The New York Times story on the change just published is very detailed on the subject, and even talks of a very “rapid” change in US policy.