Ukraine: The View from Europe

Some good, some not so good, and does Germany hold the key?

Hello Everyone,

Note: I wrote this over the last few days while in Brussels—before finding out about the mass missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure last night. These were the kinds of things (perversely) that the optimists were thinking will make it impossible in the end for the doves (or the Germans more precisely) to abandon Ukraine. One of the great motivating factors for those who wanted to help Ukraine to win, was precisely that—that Europe cannot base its future on allowing any kind of victory to a power that does this. It really would mean the end of Europe as people have come to understand it after almost 80 years.

Just sending this as I’ve been in Brussels for a week (just left). One thing I was able to do while there was canvas views widely about the role of European states and the EU in supporting Ukraine. The answers I received showed a range of opinions, which I thought I would share with you. If you boil it down though—the decisive factor in determining Europe’s response was the SDP government of Chancellor Scholz. Hardly anyone thought they were up to the job of leading Europe in this dangerous time. In the best case scenarios, the Germans would reluctantly be dragged along by their more pro-Ukrainian partners. In the worst, they might try to compel a peace deal on Ukraine that could split Europe in two.

I cant and wont mention any specific individuals with whom I talked. However, I can assure you that these impressions come from a wide range of discussions including with members of the diplomatic community (ambassadors/attaches), people associated with the EU commission, from the think-tank world and from academia. Considering the wide range of people consulted, I thought it would be most helpful to divide their thinking into three categories—the optimists, the pessimists, and the fears/hopes for Germany. I also write a few words at the end about an entirely unscientific discussion with students about whether they would fight for Europe—I found their responses fascinating.

The Optimists