Weekend Update #108: Ukrainian Ranged Strike is Authorized--But so far is Limited.

People Losing Their Heads about Putin's Threats Again. Land-Mines and the Stupidity of the way Ukraine has been Aided.

Hi All,

Well, this was the week that too many people (once again) lost their heads about Russian nuclear threats. It started (finally) with the announcement that the US has approved the use of US-supplied weapons for long-range strike against military targets in Russia. The Russian response with the use of a conventionally armed IRBM, was Putin’s attempt to convince Ukraine’s partners that he really, really might go nuclear—and many people seemed to believe him. Its definitely the major story of the week.

Before that, however, I wanted to say that when I woke up this morning and logged on here, I discovered that I had now more than 50,000 active subscribers. Its sort of hard to get my head around that figure. It makes this substack one of the largest anywhere.

Even more amazing is that subscribers have come from almost every country in the world.

The global reach is really something I never expected. There are more than 1000 subscribers from India, almost 500 from Nigeria, and approaching 1000 coming from South America. There are only fewer than 10 countries with no subscribers—which is a little mind-blowing.

Ps, if anyone has a friend in Greenland—tell them so sign up!

So thank you all for signing up. It keeps me going knowing how much people value these pieces.

Ukrainian Ranged Strike is Authorized--But so far is Limited.

This week started with the announcement last Sunday that Ukraine can now start using US weapons for long-range strike against Russian military targets in Russia.

US Authorizes (limited) Long-Range Strike

This decision has been far too long in the making and is still a very limited one in a number of regards. The length its taken is the story of the Biden administration’s policy on Ukraine in a nutshell. They have regularly either limited or completely denied Ukraine the ability to fight the war in the smartest and most effective way. It means that when they do finally relent in some areas the decision is far too late to have the strategic effect it could have had earlier.

The other limits seem pretty clear. First, Ukraine has only a very limited supply of ATACMS from what we can tell. Unless there is a rush delivery of a large stock, which so far does not seem to be the case, Ukraine will be able to use only a relatively small number in this campaign. The same goes with the European systems that can now be used. Clearly the Storm Shadows/Scalps (after some confusion) can also be used against military targets in Russia (or at least those supporting the fighting in Kursk—see below). However, Ukrainian stocks of these cruise missiles are supposedly quite restricted as they have been firing them regularly for a year and a half.

If the number of systems available for Ukraine are limited, it also seems that the geographic targeting possibilities might be as well. There has been some disagreement in reporting on this question, with some earlier reports saying that Ukraine was only authorized to attack targets in Kursk oblast and other denying these restrictions. The first attacks, however, tend to favor the idea that there are quite strict limits on what can be targeted (as well as confirming the idea that Ukraine has only limited stocks of such weapons that they can use in these operations).

So far since the announcement there seem to have been only two ranged attacks into Russia with either ATACMS or Storm Shadows/Scalps that can be confirmed (and one more that might be). All if not in Kursk oblast exactly, are all against targets that support Russian operations in Kursk. These are:

1. an ATACMS attack on a Russian depot in Bryansk (to the north of Kursk but almost certainly supporting the Russians attack there)

   

2. a Storm Shadow/Scalp attack on what seems to have been a Russian/North Command and Control center in Kursk.

3. Reported attacks yesterday (Friday/Saturday night) against more targets in Kursk. However these attacks might just have been UAVs, so we need more confirmation.

So we have a small number of attacks all for targets involved with the fighting in Kursk. The targets make a great deal of sense and show that Ukraine has the understanding about how to try and degrade Russian logistics. However, they are all aimed at Kursk so far. A real test of whether this last limit is in place will be if attacks are not broadened in the next few days. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Ukraine wants to attack targets in Rostov (which could be supporting Russian operations in a wider area, not just Kursk). So lets see.

So, these restrictions seem very much to indicate that Ukraine can only make ranged attacks (for now) to try and help their campaign to hold onto what they control in Kursk. This would be completely typical of how the Biden administration has tried to micro-manage the war. Its a sign of why, ultimately, this war is the shit-show its become. Ukraine is not being helped to win, as always its being belatedly steered in some overly restricted way to try and achieve a very limited objective.

And time is running out. Its now less than 2 months until Donald Trump becomes president, and even these limited attacks can be ended. So unless we see a change soon—a big ramp up in Ukrainian attacks and a geographical extension of the target list, we are looking at a very limited extension of Ukrainian capabilities.

People Losing Their Heads about Putin's Threats Again

One of the weird disconnects of the reporting of the war for a while, which was really highlighted this week, is the idea, put across on the one hand that ranged strikes wont be a real game-changer, but on the other hand they are so threatening to Putin that he might escalate to nuclear war in retaliation if Ukraine is allowed to make them with western weapons (even though he uses Iranian and North Korean weapons for ranged strike all the time).

Certainly both narratives came out this week. The idea that Ukraine would get some great advantage from the US decision was (even though Ukraine was being very bullish) downplayed by many of those outside. The Economist went out of its way in this regard.

And then Putin got very dramatic, using a Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile, and people seemed to say that this supposedly non game-changing move might result in nuclear war. What we do know from the US Department of Defense is that it was an experimental adaptation of an ICBM. Here is a quote from the Pentagon’s own story.

"I can confirm that Russia did launch an experimental intermediate range ballistic missile," said Sabrina Singh during a briefing today at the Pentagon. "This IRBM was based on Russia's RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile model. In terms of notifications to the United States, the United States was prenotified, briefly, before the launch, through nuclear risk reduction channels." 

The IRBM missile was launched at the city of Dnipro. While Singh said the missile carried a conventional warhead, she also said it's possible the missile could be fitted with other warheads as well. 

"It could be refitted to certainly carry different types of ... conventional or nuclear warheads," she said. 

The Defense Department has characterized the IRBM as "experimental" in that it's the first time a weapon of its kind has been used on the battlefield in Ukraine, Singh said. 

"This was a new type of lethal capability that was deployed on the battlefield," she said. "That's certainly [of] concern to us ... I don't have an assessment of its impacts right now, but it's something that, of course, we're concerned by." 

(Note—the difference between an IRBM (which was fired) and an ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) is range. IRBMs are shorter range.

Putin clearly wants people to believe that he is so angry about the decision of the US to allow for ranged strike that he could go nuclear. In a televised statement to the Russian people, Putin not only boasted about his shiny new weapon, he went on to state that he might use it against a NATO country if that country was shown to have supported these attacks. Here is a summary of a story on the subject.

“From that moment, as we have repeatedly emphasized earlier, the regionally provoked conflict in Ukraine took on elements of a global nature,” Putin said, adding that “using such weapons without the direct involvement of military specialists from the countries that produce these weapons is impossible.”

“We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military objects of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our objects, and in the event of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond just as decisively and in kind,” he added.

Now, this is the big BS tell. Russia cant afford to fight NATO now, and will never attack a NATO country when its struggling so to keep the war going against just Ukraine—and already suffering such high losses. However, this did not stop his biggest allies outside from Donald Trump Jr to Viktor Orban to go and repeat that we might (once again) be on the verge of WWIII.

We can only hope that in the coming days Ukraine keeps up the attacks and that we once again see the repeat of the same pattern we have seen throughout the war. First, we see warnings of worldwide destruction before Ukraine gets a new capability. Then secondly, we have dire prophecies of what will happen once the decision is announced to give Ukraine this capability. Then, lastly, once the systems is regularly used, there is a realization that Putin cant go nuclear or attack NATO because it is not in his interest (China for one).

So here we are repeating this cycle and we will hopefully get to the third stage of the pattern soon.

A few other things should also be pointed out.

Putin, through sabotage and information warfare, has already been attacking NATO countries for year. These attacks are far more effective than one experimental missile anyway. By reacting to these verbal threats of conventional or even nuclear war against NATO (which wont happen) we downplay that Russia is already waging a form of war, distressingly successful, against NATO as is.

Second, Ukraine and the state’s in the region not bought and paid for by Putin such as Hungary and Slovakia, are supporting Ukraine in its campaign for ranged attacks. If they are not worried, maybe those further away can stop losing their heads.

Land-Mines and the Stupidity of the way Ukraine has been Aided

The other announcement this week, which didn’t get nearly the attention of the ranged-strike move, was that the USA has decided to send Ukraine stores of anti-personnel land mines. This would have been inconceivable earlier in the war. There has been an international campaign against land-mines for decades, because of their obvious danger to civilians. The huge majority of states, around 160, have publicly disavowed their use. Even thought he US and Russia are not on that list, the US would have not wanted to take this step if at all possible because of the global position.

However, here we are, in a war that is approaching 3 years, and consuming equipment and soldiers in massive numbers, and the land-mine is more and more needed. Why? Because the length of war had led to adaptations which make the land-mine now something that is extremely effective.

The real problem is that vehicle led advances are almost impossible because of the ease of identifying and attacking tanks, APCs, etc. The effectiveness of combined defensive firepower (UAVs, Artillery, Hand-helds, etc) have led to the destruction of vehicles in unsustainable numbers.

Because of this, the way an army advances now is usually infantry led, often just on foot, with small numbers of soldiers rushing forward to make small gains. Its why we see such small advances all the time. In such a war, with infantry in the lead, land-mines become far more important than people were thinking before 2022, when the vision of war was tanks streaking down roads.

And its a situation we have created by helping Ukraine to fight only on the battlefield. Congratulations us.

Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.