Election Update 2: The Democratic Convention was (probably) a Success

Though we can't judge its impact until after Labor Day

Hello All,

Well the story of the week—indeed of the campaign so far, was about the Democratic Convention which just ended a few hours ago with the acceptance speech of Kamala Harris (more about that later). That speech actually started quite slowly I thought—though picked up as it went on, and once she started talking about Trump, it had impact. Someone in particular noticed that and went ballistic.

First, Please Put Conventions in the Right Perspective

This speech capped off what seemed a very successful few days—however hold your horses before getting too excited. Most conventions feel successful and then end up having a short-term afterglow at best. Its because of what they are—a four day commercial for the party hosting them, with a parade of major figures, excited delegates, mostly accommodating media, celebrities etc, almost all of whom agree on what they are doing. Conventions allow the parties to package themselves in the best possible ways and they are also overwhelmingly watched by those who are sympathetic to the party. During the Republican Convention, for instance, Fox had monster ratings and during the Democratic Convention it was the same for MSNBC.

Kamala Harris accepting the Democratic Nomination

So conventions are by nature the kinds of things that go well and make those who already support a candidate or party feel better about where they stand. That being said, there are signs that the traditional convention bounce is becoming considerably less pronounced in this moment of deep partisan divide. Looking at this interesting chart, we can see how convention bounces have generally declined over the last 40 years.