The Trump Shooting is not Changing the Polls

These Reasons Might be Why

Hi All,

Just adding a fourth poll—by Redfield and Wilton. This was a poll taken completely on July 15 (two days after the shooting). Shows now change from the previous R&W poll. Trump has a one point lead in both. So no sign anywhere of a statistically significant bump for Trump.

One more post on US politics. Btw dont worry, Im not forgetting Ukraine—Mykola and I are recording a new podcast tomorrow, and it will delve deeply into the state of the war in the weekend update (including some things on the state of the production war.

However, one more on US politics. And if I may, I would like to say that those accusing me of writing just anti-Trump and pro-Biden pieces have not looked at all at the posts I have put out on politics. I only write such things if I feel I have something useful to say. And so far when I have they seem to have been pretty accurate. Moreover one thing they have not been is optimistic about Biden’s chances. For those new to the substack (quite a few in the last week) here are some of the earlier pieces.

There was this piece in early February, which argued that Biden was showing himself to be a weak candidate and that the Democrats should consider replacing him. While I remain a determined supporter of Biden in the election if he remains on the ballot against Trump—I still believe he is a candidate with major weaknesses.

The Democrats Need to Make a Bold Move--Now

Then there was this piece a few days later which tried to show why Trump was proving more resilient than many expected. Basically the worry (which still holds to this day) is that Trump was doing considerably better with minority voters than he did in 2020. Lots of people are saying that now—but I think this was one of the first pieces on it.

The 2024 elections: Glass Half Empty or Half Full?

So no Biden optimism and Trump pessimism—far from it.

On the other hand, I thought the reaction to the Trump shooting was completely out of proportion when it came to its political impact. I didn’t see either historically or from the context of the event, why people were saying that it should help Trump a great deal in the election.

The Assassination Attempt Will Probably Not Make Trump More Likely to Be Elected

Then, in discussing the Vance for VP choice as soon as it was made, I made the point that actually he was not likely to help Trump, but actually provided the Democrats an opening.

This kind of argument is now appearing in other places. So, I would argue that these columns have been pretty good—or at least not far from the mark.

This leads to the question of what we are seeing in the polling after the shooting—and so far they seem to be supporting the position that the shooting will lead to little, if any change.