Hi All,
There are a bunch of stories circulating this week. There are two in Ukraine—the Ukrainian raid into Russia and the fallout of the damage from the attack on the Morozovsk airfield. Mykola and I should be recording a new podcast in a few hours, and we will go into both of these stories, so I thought I would hold off on them for now. Plus, I notice that many of the same people who made instant judgements about the impact of the Russian Kharkiv Offensive (supposedly a brilliant move) are making instant judgements on the Ukrainian raid (terrible move). I hate such instant judgements, so I think events need a few days to work themselves out.
On the other hand, I think we now have enough polling evidence to make a preliminary statement about why Harris has changed the polling dynamic compared to Biden and why through that she poses a particularly difficult challenge for Trump. A challenge so difficult, btw, that Trump is now openly engaging in fantasy scenarios so that he can run against Biden (and debate Biden) again. Its fascinating to see—and I’d be a little concerned were I a Trump supporter to see my candidate engaging in such strange scenario-building to get Biden back into the race.
Biden will not be back in the race—precisely because Harris has changed things so markedly, so quickly.
A Major Biden Problems—Minority Voters and Turnout/Enthusiasm
