Election Update #12: Is the Democratic Enthusiasm Advantage Already Showing Up?

Is this election more like 2020 or what we have seen since 2022?

Hi All,

Well, 5 days to go until the election, but actually the election is very much underway. Already there have been a huge number of votes recorded—and there are a few glimpses that the electorate resembles more that of the last two years than that which pollsters are modelling for based on 2020. It would make sense that this is happening for a number of reasons, and yet it runs against one of the cardinal elements of much of the polling these days—which is based on the idea that Trump voters have been under-represented in the past.

Ultimately the way the election is assumed to go is a duel between what we have seen since 2022, and what we saw in 2016 and 2020.

The Turnout So Far—Women are in a Large Majority, Particularly in Large Swing States.

Overall more than 55 million American voters had already voted as on 24 hours ago—and more than 65 million mail in ballots have been requested. That is down on 4 years ago, when the pandemic led to an extraordinary number of early and mail in votes, but is considerably higher than any other election before that. Here’s a graph to put what’s happening in some perspective.