Trump and Ukraine: Best Case/Worst Case

What is he thinking?

Hi All,

Since the election (indeed since long before) I’ve been hearing/discussing with Republicans that I know well (and trust) about what Trump might do with Ukraine when he comes to power. Its a fascinating game, particularly because Trump himself is so mercurial. He can change his mind instantly if he thinks he will benefit from a change, or even if he has a strong emotional reaction. And tbh, talking with Republicans who have some access to his thinking (such as below) they actually report him changing him mind on major questions such as Ukraine on a daily, sometimes it seems hourly basis.

A Senior Republican Speaks About the GOP and Ukraine

I thought it would be worth assembling what people are saying the best case and worst cases would be for Ukraine once Trump becomes president. As you know, I like to look at what Trump actually says about Ukraine, because he has been quite revealing and even consistent with some of his claims. I also think its very important that those around him such as Musk, Vance, Carlson et al are, shall we say, not very well disposed to Ukraine and seem quite keen to please Putin. There are some pro-Ukraine voices such as Mike Pompeo, and a number of important Senators, but they are not quite as much on the inside.

Its also worth while laying out some basic conditions under how the best and worst cases can be constructed. These are not fantasy cases where Trump will decide to love Ukraine or wipe it from the map. There are certain fundamentals that are operating here in both cases. First, Trump does not like Zelensky in particular and Ukraine in general. He accepts much of the Russian narrative about Ukraine being a threat if it was in NATO, and believes that the Ukrainian government was not helpful in the Hunter Biden laptop case. Neither of these basic conditions will change.

Also, Trump is well-disposed to Putin, and has been for a long time. Their contacts go back decades. In many ways he trusts Putin more than he trusts many Americans, and its unlikely that he will break with Putin in any dramatic way (unless Putin embarrasses him—see below).