Supreme Command: Its not a Celebrity Contest

Trying to put the Zaluzhny-Zelensky situation in some context

Hello All,

I’m sure many of you saw the reports that started circulating on Monday that General Zaluzhny had been relieved of his military command of the Ukrainian armed forces. It spread like wildfire across Ukraine and then outside, and forced the Ukrainian ministry of defence to issue a denial before things regained a certain equilibrium. There has been a great deal of conjecture since about just what happened (where there is smoke there is usually some fire) and what it might mean going forward.

For those who are in contact with Ukrainians, stories of the tensions between President Zelensky and General Zaluzhny had been circulating widely for a while. I have been told by more than one person that Zaluzhny was probably going to be replaced soon and that it could happen imminently. The reasons for this varied, from personality to strategic differences—and to be honest, the reason doesn’t matter a great amount if the move it going to be made.

Now what happened this week is being reported in a number of ways.One of the best stories is in the Economist.¹ One plausible story is that Zelensky met with Zaluzhny, and asked for the General’s resignation. Zaluzhny however refused to resign (which means the General was basically daring Zelensky to fire him). Almost immediately after the meeting, leaks started appearing everywhere that Zaluzhny was on his way out. At this point, the government was in a quandary, and decided to issue a statement saying that no change has been made.

And here we are. If this story is true, General Zaluzhny might be safe in his position for a while now—however if it is true, he will probably be relieved at some point in the future.

Ultimately how this will work out will come down to two men, President Zelensky and General Zaluzhny, and one imagines that they are both thinking seriously about their position.

Instead of saying anything more about this specific question, I thought I would try to put it into context by throwing out some reflections on how such a senior command situation should be understood—with a historical reflection on each. It has actually been one of the constant subjects of my career—as I’ve spent most of the last two decades researching and writing about the making of grand strategy in World War II, discussing Roosevelt, Churchill, Hitler, and how they interacted with their senior generals to make strategy. Btw, all WWII leaders fired senior commanders in the war (some did so on a serial basis—such as Hitler), and some of these firings created large controversies.

What then matters most?