The Historical Exceptionalism of US Escalation Policy and the War in Ukraine
Why is the US so much more frightened than the USSR and China During the Korean and Vietnam Wars?
One of the many reasons Ive found theories such as Offensive Realism to be almost entirely useless, is that they downplay differences in regimes/leadership and assume that states have the same basic drives (maximizing their relative power in a competitive world). Actually, what Ive studied over the years has led me to believe that different leaders and governments produce wildly different policies, depending on how the individuals at the top of the policy making apparatuses perceive the world. Far from being driven by a similar desire for power maximization, different leaderships see the world very differently, with their own aggressions and their own fears.
Certainly the reaction of the Biden Administration to the war in Ukraine was far from pre-ordained by a US desire for power maximization (indeed I would argue that they are in fact pursuing a policy that will lead more likely to US power minimization). And a Trump administration would be even worse, as its leadership would see the world very differently again.
Maybe the most obvious example of how leaderships matter is to look at the evident fear of “escalation” that is driving the Biden Administration. Looked at in comparison to recent history it is exceptional, extreme, and has so far been disastrous. The best way to see that is to compare it to what the USSR and the PRC were willing to do for their allies during the Korean and Vietnam Wars, to reveal just how exceptionally wrong headed the Biden Administration is being and how it is self-deterring to an almost unprecedented degree.
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