Weekend Update #106: The World Has Changed, the Battlefield Not so Much

Trump is Back, Whither Europe?, The State of the War

Hello All,

Well, it happened and he’s back. Donald Trump won the US presidency (convincingly) and will take back the reins of power on January 20, 2025—though to be honest he is taking them back already. What this means for Ukraine is deeply uncertain and worrying, to say the least. Of course the key thing to keep in mind is that the US cannot dictate the end of the war—the US is not that powerful. It can step aside, but that in and of itself is not decisive—if Europe in particular doesn’t want it to be so. Russia is not winning on the battlefield, it continues the same very high cost (and growing) attacks for tiny advances. Oh and Russia unleashed a new terror weapon this week, Shaheds with thermobaric warheads, whose purpose is to burn humans to death. Here is a Ukrainian apartment building burning after being hit by one.

Trump is Back

In some ways its felt like he never left, as he’s been so ubiquitous in US lives over the last 4 years (and yes, I am an American for those of you who doubt it—a dual national now as I’ve made the UK my home for a while). Yet, its very different to have him a constant presence in the news and have him and those around him making policy. But that’s exactly where we are, as Trump won a very convincing victory in the election (Arizona was finally called last night)

He took every one of the states that were considered swing states and won the popular vote outright for the first time. If he was at all going to be worried about being a minority president—that is not a consideration any more. The United States government is his (the Republicans have also taken control of the Senate and kept control of the House).

The question is what this means for Ukraine. So far we have glimpses, and people I talk to discuss say it could go either way for Ukraine (I put together a piece on that this week).

However these are mostly guesses. As always its good to look at what we have seen. The first signs are, shall we say, more worrying for reassuring.

First, just a few hours Trump came out and said that the two most-prominent pro-Ukraine voices left in the Republican Party, Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley.

Haley was probably never going to get a big job as she criticized Trump so much during the campaign (ultimately unforgivable in Trump-land). However Pompeo had been working very hard to work his way back into a new Trump administration. He had been praising Trump and supposedly lobbying him to be as supportive of Ukraine and NATO as possible. He even published an article about that this summer.

But he’s out. This means there are only a small number of even partly pro-Ukraine voices that could be in important government posts. The one still not yet dismissed for Defense Secretary that you hear something about is Rep. Mike Rogers. Senator Tom Cotton was another, but supposedly he’s no longer in the mix.

The best chance for Ukraine is that some pro-Ukrainian voices are listened to by Trump. So far, that seems more unlikely that likely. Indeed, the pro-Russian voices seem to be in control. For instance, the most powerful person around Trump so far seems to be Elon Musk. Musk was actually on the call when Trump called Zelensky.

That is not reassuring. Musk seems to be part of a group that is very pro-Russian in outlook. One of his former business partners, for instance, David Sacks, has been a vocal pro-Putin supporter since the invasion, and Sacks was arguing very publicly against Pompeo getting any job in the incoming administration. Sacks indeed, just a few hours before Trump removed Pompeo from consideration, attacked Pompeo for being too pro-Ukraine.

The rest of those around Trump also are not giving positive signs. Maybe the most ominous (more on that below) was JD Vance threatening all of Europe with abandoning NATO if Europe is mean to Elon Musk. At the same time he let Russia off the hook for funding Ukrainian reconstruction.

The more this continues, the worse it will be for Ukraine. If Trump really is going to listen to Vance, Musk (and Don Jr), he will have put together a chorus that has regularly tried to argue for a pro-Russian position. That means, probably a pretty swift move to freeze the conflict on the present lines, and a cessation of aid to Ukraine. There were some reports that Trump might be ok with continuing aid to Ukraine if Ukraine agrees to cede territory to Russia (and gives up hope of NATO membership).

Btw, if you are interested, I put together a best/worst case scenario for Ukraine and Trump.

So while we still don’t know what Trump will do with US policy towards Ukraine, and its important not to jump too much to conclusions, the signs are not exactly positive. All hope for the USA doing the right thing (for it and for Ukraine) is not lost. But its not hanging by a very strong thread.

Whither Europe?

Sometimes people act as if the United States can decide the outcome of the war by a wave of its magic wand. This idea holds that Trump will basically inform Ukraine what the final deal will be, and the Ukrainians will be good little boys and go of and do what they are told. This is as fallacious an idea as the Kyiv will fall in 3-days view that was put forward in the run up to the full-scale invasion.

First off, the US cant automatically control things like that. There has been a constant mistake in thinking that during this war—and the US trying to micromanage the outcome has gone terribly wrong. I wrote this piece about it in The Atlantic in July 2023.

Here is the start of that piece if you’re interested.

One of the biggest challenges that a superpower faces is figuring out what it can and cannot do. When you are a global hegemon, you might believe that you can micromanage wars, orchestrate foreign countries’ diplomatic relations and internal politics, and precisely calibrate how others perceive you. That tendency is evident in the American approach to Ukraine. Although the U.S. has provided Ukraine some strong diplomatic support and a significant amount of modern weaponry, it has done so with a catch. To avoid provoking Russia too much, it seems, the Biden administration has been very restrained in offering additional types of weaponry—and therefore additional military capabilities—to Ukraine. Until recently, the U.S. has given noticeably mixed signals about when or even whether NATO, the West’s preeminent military alliance, might accept Ukraine into its ranks.

You would think this is obvious, but its not. The US was unable to dictate the end of the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Invasion of Iraq and the 20-year fiasco in Afghanistan. Its also flailing around now in the Middle East, showing very much the limitations of what it can achieve.

Other people get a say in their own wars—and in this case the Ukrainians and (possibly) Europeans will have a say in how this war ends. Indeed, the outcome of this war is of greater importance to Ukraine specifically and Europe generally than it is to the USA, and the peoples and governments here might not simply turn around and roll over if Trump tries to dictate a specific ending.

The real question is whether Europe, faced with a clearly pro-Putin Trump (which we might see in action very soon) decides to try and replace US aid to Ukraine and help the Ukrainians to victory. The Russian army remains beatable—the reason its still there is that Ukraine has not been helped in the right way to beat it.

Therefore, Europe can still play an important role in the outcome of this war, but it really has to start standing up now. Its here, where the signals are even more contradictory than they are for Trump. There is clearly some desire to move forward now with a pan-European security arrangement that will see much of the continent (Im leaving out Hungary, Slovakia and others of course). However, as always, the rhetoric can be great—but the actions so far lag.

Rhetorically this week there were some noticeable moments where the Trump victory seems to have caused an understanding that Europe’s security really is hanging by a thread (which would hopefully have been reinforced by Vance’s threat to gut NATO to serve Elon Musk. Maybe the most striking (and a little wacky) was President Macron’s discussion that Europe must cease being herbivore and become more carnivore (or at least omnivore).

What;s interesting is that its not just about military security and the US—Macron points out the economic threat of relying on China and the societal threat of kow-towing to large high-tech firms. He’s right on all this—the question, of course is whether he will do anything.

There should be two tests soon—the first is more military aid (and fewer restrictions) for Ukraine and the second is more military spending by European states so that they can provide for their own security. These will be the tests beyond mere rhetoric, so right now don’t watch the words, watch the aid and the spending.

And watch out for the sucking up to Trump. A sure sign that European states really don’t want to face the reality of their own security predicament will be if instead of being firm on Ukraine, they start doing everything to kowtow to Trump (which sadly we are already seeing). The UK Prime minister Keir Starmer has a supposedly grovelling call with Trump where he offered the incoming a president a state visit.

In fact, the UK will probably be pivotal on this. If the UK seriously starts working with European states on security (depressingly, its mostly playing lip service to this, with things like the JEF), that will be an important tell. However, if the UK starts more trying to work with Trump and stay out of European preparations, that will be worrying.

Remember, Brexit was a success for Putin, as it seriously weakened the EU and through that unity on European security. I would expect to see more headlines like this in the coming months, not because Trump wants it, but it would further weaken Europe more.

The State of the War

You might have forgotten in all the discussion of Trump and Europe that there is still a war raging in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom with the same conviction as always. Indeed, the Russian advances seem very limited in the last week (actually last weeks) as they are creeping forward in the Donbas, have made no appreciable advance in Kursk, and are resorting to ever more barbaric attacks on Ukrainian civilians to try and terrorize them into submission. Oh, and Russians losses are reaching extreme levels, actually above replacement levels if they continue.

In the Donbas we have been hearing for months about a deteriorating situation for Ukraine, how Pokrovsk (and before that Chasiv Yar) was about to fall, how the Russians would break out an encircle Ukrainian forces—and none of that has happened. What has happened in the last week is actually a very small amount of Russian advances.

Here is the Deep State map of the area of most Russian attacks today.

Here is the map exactly one week ago. There is a scale in the corner so you can check the changes—they are less than 5 kilometres (3 miles) anywhere.

And what has the Russian loss situation been? Well this week the Ukrainian claims of Russian losses (which have been relatively accurate according to western intelligence) passed 700,000 casualties. Here are the Ukrainian figures which were released a few hours ago.

The British for one, have confirmed that they believe that these figures are accurate. Admiral Radakin (the military head of British forces) just said this to the BBC.

Russia has suffered its worst ever month for casualties since the start of the war in Ukraine, the UK chief of defence staff has told the BBC.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said Russia’s forces suffered an average of about 1,500 dead and injured "every single day" in October, bringing its losses to 700,000 since the war began in February 2022.

Russia seems actually to be trying everything they can to advance to take as much as possible, based on the possible hope that Trump will press for them to keep it all when he comes in. Its a risk for Russia as actually this is not sustainable for them if Ukraine gets continual aid. But its been what they have been doing all year.

It also means that Russians are throwing everything they can into the Donbas. One of the reasons they need North Korean troops (which is not a great overall sign for them) is that their early October offensive to take back the Kursk salient Ukraine seized only took back a small part. Ukraine still holds a chunk of Russia not that much smaller than the Ocheretyne bulge everyone has been talking about.

And that actually is a real problem for those who want to dictate terms to Ukraine. What happens in Putin cant retake this part of Russia before talks? Its a real complicating factor for Trump and Putin (and btw, reinforces that the Kursk offensive was arguably one of the most important “strategic” successes for Ukraine this year).

In the last week, btw, there has been no change on the Deep State Map for Kursk.

Finally, in a sign that Putin is basically trying anything to hammer Ukraine in preparation for a Trump presidency, the Russians unleashed a pure-horror weapon this week. These are Iranian licensed Shahed UAVs, armed with thermobaric warheads. Here is a video that the Ukrainians released of one that had been brought down and not exploded.

Thermobaric warheads basically create intense heat and fire and are particularly dangerous to human beings. Here is a quick description.

Thermobaric munitions are those weapons that are designed to produce  enhanced temperature and pressure compared to conventional explosives and are often referred  to as fuel-air  explosives  (FAEs).  They produce a much greater  incidence of primary blast injury than  conventional explosives and  this is their main mechanism of injury

And here is a pretty useful graphic.

They are being used deliberately on apartment buildings across Ukraine, to kill and terrorize civilians. Normally you would think the USA would be appalled enough to finally let Ukraine strike military targets in Russia in response, but as of now the Biden administration is holding firm to its disastrous policy.

So we have a template for the next two months until Trump becomes President. Expect Putin to do everything possible to seize any inch of Ukraine he can (at massive cost), expect him to try and recover Kursk (also at high cost—though these might be North Koreans in the vanguard and so far its failed) and expect him to commit any crime he can if he thinks it will work to break Ukrainian spirits.

And expect the USA to be useless.

But thankfully Ukraine is not—it is taking an extreme toll on the Russians—and hoping that Europe steps up to the plate and eats a little meat.

Apologies for the long length! Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.