The Precipice of Failure--US Foreign Policy and Ukraine

The one hope is that Harris is different

Hello All,

Postscript: Just after this, President Biden gave his final address to the UN general assembly, and its pretty clear he has entirely abandoned the idea that Ukraine winning the war. He said he wanted to help Ukraine to achieve a “just peace”—which is very different indeed, and allows for a major loss of Ukrainian territory. Here is a quote from an article about the speech:

"You cannot grow weary," he said. "You cannot look away. We will not let up on our support for Ukraine, not until Ukraine wins a just and durable peace."

Greetings from Washington DC. Ive been here for a few days and in a few hours will be launching a report I’ve co-written with Prof Eliot Cohen, on the failures of the pre-February 24, 2022 analysis of the Russian and Ukrainian militaries. Its also a remarkable time to be here, as President Zelensky is in the USA and is discussing his victory plan with the administration—one that seems to be built around providing Ukraine with a real long-range strike capability against Russian forces (the kind of long-range strike that Russia has always had against Ukraine).

Depressingly, everything you hear in Washington (from people who know far more than I), is that the administration is almost entirely united in opposition to giving Ukraine this capacity. With supposedly the sole exception of Antony Blinken and the State Department, every other major figure—Def Secretary Austin, NS Advisor Sullivan, and it must always be understood, President Biden, remains opposed. If this basic situation does not change, the USA will end up rejecting the Ukrainian victory plan in the next few days—with what I would say would be terrible results.