The First Stage of Ukraine's Plan for Crimea Seems Almost Done

Cutting off the peninsula from the sea and air

Hi All,

The ultimate fate of the future of Crimea is arguably the foundational issue of the Russo-Ukraine War. Vladimir Putin coveted Crimea for long before 2014, and illegally seizing Crimea was the first thing he did when he started his plan to diminish the Ukrainian state.

Indeed its hard to understate Crimea’s strategic importance to the Black Sea. It sticks out into the Black Sea, providing the shortest communication and air defense points to have the body of water. It also possesses an excellent naval base in Sevastopol—arguably the best located facility in the sea. Russia without Crimea is significantly limited while Ukraine without Crimea is under constant threat (as we can see).

Now, since the full-scale invasion commenced what is fascinating is how Crimea has transformed from a huge strategic asset for Russia into at least partly a major liability. Russia needs to strain itself to continually supply and protect Crimea—and that means it must offer Ukraine targets to hit—and the Ukrainians have done so repeatedly (and in some ways increasingly). Its now reached the point that the first phase of the Ukrainian plan for Crimea seems close to completion.

Phase 1: Cutting off Crimea from the Sea.