The Crimea Campaign: Boiling the Russian Frog

A Primer to What is Happening in Crimea

Hello All,

Have you head the phrase “to boil a frog”? Its around a lot these days and is based on the idea that if you place a frog in a pot of lukewarm water and slowly heat it up, that the frog won’t realise what’s happening until its too late and it gets boiled to death.

Its a myth by the way. Frog’s aren’t that stupid and if possible they will hop out of the pot.

However the phrase does represent something that we are seeing in Crimea, though in this case the Russians are not being lulled into submission by slowly heating water. They know very much what is happening—however they cant (unlike the frog) simply jump put of the pot. Crimea is the foundational factor for their invasion of Ukraine in the first place—the whole strategic and political goal for all this misery, destruction and committing of war crimes.

So what we are seeing is the completely witting boiling of the Russian frog, who simply won’t/can’t leave Crimea. Its become one of the focal points of the war and its importance will continue to grow—for precisely the reason that the Russians must try to hold it regardless. It has formed the basis of the rather extraordinary campaign of the last few months (which has been built on years of previous engagements). To try and make sense of what we are seeing and where things might be heading, I thought I would put together this Crimea primer for you—my subscribers.