Election Update #11: The race hasn't "narrowed"

Either Harris's Lead is Stable, or Trump has had a Major Surge

Hello All,

Well this update ended up being an even deeper trip down the polling rabbit hole than imagined—partly because what was occurring in the national polls didn’t make any sense to me. The last 7-10 days have shown an aggregate narrowing in the national polls, with Trump cutting Harris’s lead from close to 3 percent to 1.5 percent. I assumed that this was happening and wanted to see why. Actually, looking deeper there is no narrowing. In the end, I believe, its more an either/or situation as opposed to a compromise between the two. Either Trump is having a surge in support and favorability, or Harris is maintaining her lead with no significant narrowing .

Means are Narrowing, Medians are Solidly for Harris.

Even with the overall narrowing it must always be remembered that this race remains the most steady in US electoral history with very little swings at all compared to most . Indeed the flatness of the long-term lines in the race remain (even with the changes of the last 10 days) flat. For those that are new, I wrote a piece about that a few weeks ago.

Election Update #8: An Election Where Nothing is Happening--And that is Exceptional

However within the flatness, the polling aggregation sites I think are best have shown consistent narrowing. Harris is still leading, however her lead has dropped recently in the averages (means) of the polls.