Election Update #8: An Election Where Nothing is Happening--And that is Exceptional

Hi All,

This is going to be a little unorthodox update—rather historical at times. This election is turning out unlike any other for a century (I would argue since 1908—more on that below). There is campaigning, events, scandals, and really—nothing is happening. It means that we need to evaluate this election by different standards than we have done before.

Before I get into that, I would to thankthose who filled out the poll about the chat session tomorrow (Friday) evening. In the end there was a pretty clear majority in favor of using a dedicated substack post comment section. (Yes, I know it has a few hours to run, but the result wont change).

So what I will do is send out a post about the chat a few hours before 8pm UK time/3pm US East Coast time tomorrow. At that point, people can start adding questions to the chat. I will log on at the start and stay around for at least 2 hours—and we can chat about anything really. It doesnt have to be just about the CSIS Report on military assessments before the Russian full-scale invasion. We can discuss the war in general, the US elections, etc. Just no discussion of the Red Sox this year—or I’m out.

An Election Where Nothing is Happening.

I’m not saying that there is no campaigning, or passion or political fighting—of course there is lots of that. What Im saying is that in looking at this election—its astounding how the campaign is making almost no difference to what is going on. Since early August, when the population decided that Kamala Harris was indeed a creditable candidate and could take on Donald Trump—we have seen an almost rock-solid consistency in the polls. Basically, using the 538 Poll charts, Harris’s lead has oscillated in an incredibly narrow band of less than 1 percent. At her high point, Harris had a lead of 3.4% and at its low point it was 2.5%. Now its 2.8%. The flat lines between the two are rather mesmerizing.