The Short War Illusion: The Real US Achilles Heel

Industrial Production and a War in the Indo-Pacific

Hi All,

A little diversion this week, partly motivated by my reading of an excellent and important article in Foreign Affairs written by Seth Jones, and combining it with what was revealed in the study of the analytical failures that I just published with Eliot Cohen. Its a reflection on what is one of the most common mis-perceptions about war, and why its its repeated again it will put the USA in an extremely difficult position vis a vis China in the Indo-Pacific. Its a combination of what should be called the short-war delusion with the present state of the US defense industrial base. Together they are setting the stage for a strategic disaster.

A new Chinese aircraft carrier under construction.

The Short War Illusion

One of the greatest mistakes anyone can make when thinking about a future war is that it will be decided quickly. And yet for all of that, it is a mistake that is repeated constantly. There was, for instance, the popular refrain heard at the start of World War I that the war “will be over before Christmas”. This short, decisive war thinking was, of course, a delusion—and almost always is. Its one of the reasons it was so distressing to see a new version of the short way delusion regularly and confidently being stated before the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

In that short-war vision, predictions were made about minutes, days, and weeks. Here are just some of those—which were included in the report.