Election Update #4: Any model that is anything other than 50-50 is silly

Too many swing states are far too close to say that Harris or Trump is ahead.

Hi All,

Fourth update on the US presidential election today—and there is clarity amongst the lack of clarity. The clarity is that nationally, Harris has her small but consistent national lead. Its been cemented in from before the Democratic Convention—and seems pretty solid being at least at three percent. That being said, the election in the end will come down to a small number of swing states—and anyone saying that four of them are definitely leaning one way or the other is just speaking nonsense. So I thought much of today’s update will be about those swing states—though with a discussion of where we are nationally in the post-convention race at start.

The Conventions in Retrospect

Its been two weeks since the DNC convention ended and more than a month since the GOP convention ended, and we can look back at them with a little more understanding. The lesson, as always, is that conventions themselves are rarely the crucial event that people often assume they are.