Thoughts About a US-China Pacific War

In one area would be much more difficult for the US than WWII

Hi All,

A little digression today—and as always once I started to write the piece became longer and longer. Apologies—I was trying to make one point, and made lots.

I’ve been doing some thinking about the shape of a possible war between the US and China in the Pacific (say for instance one that broke out over the South China Sea, or Taiwan, or even a direct Japanese-Chinese conflict). Its for the book that I’m working on about War and Power. Its also something thats in the news a great deal. The Chinese just this week, for instance launched what is being called their “punishment” maneuvers around Taiwan.

Now, I’m not one to believe that this war is bound to happen. I don’t believe in inevitable wars—and think that is just an easy way to explain different political choices that did not or do not have to be made. For instance, I don’t believe that the World War I was destined to break out in 1914 (or 1912 or 1916). It happened when it did because of a series of choices by political leaders that involved calculation, miscalculation, prejudice and insight. The book will go into these kinds of choices in greater detail.

And having said that, I think the results of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on balance make a US-China war less likely. It has blown up the ridiculous short-clinical war idea that seemed to infect many people’s thinking ahead of Feb 24, 2022—when it was confidently claimed that Russia would seize Kyiv in a few days and conquer Eastern Ukraine in a matter of weeks.

Indeed what we have seen so far is the reality of war—its not quick and easy, its unpredictable, extraordinarily destructive and can last far longer than you think. In other words, going to war is almost always the bad choice.

That being said, a war in the Pacific involving the US and China is a definite possibility and as it would involve the globe’s only two full-spectrum powers of the moment, it would dwarf what we are seeing now in Ukraine.