Trump and Putin: Aligning over Ukrainian Elections
An Example of Them Working Together--and Reasons Why
Hi All,
I’ve received some interesting responses to my weekend update arguing that Trump and Putin are aligning on Ukraine (and on Europe). That piece (link below) seemed too strong to some, who did not like or accept the fact that Trump and Putin could actually be cooperating in the way suggested.
To try and illustrate how they could be aligning, I thought I would provide an example of one of the more fascinating examples of what seems clearly like message-coordination, or more accurately the Trump administration adopting the Putin position word for word. That example is the increasingly strident US calls for Ukraine to have an election very soon. Also, I will keep this piece free for everyone, as it builds on the weekend update, and I think the point it makes supports that in the best possible way.
Before Trump Was Elected—A Non-Issue
Prior to Trump’s election in November 2024, there had been a great deal of talks of different Trump peace plans for Ukraine. Settling the war was one of his key foreign policy pledges, and there ended up being many ideas floated around by those close to Trump. In particular we had different “peace” plans or ideas floated by Keith Kellogg (now Ukraine special envoy) and JD Vance (now VP) as well various mutterings by Trump himself.
What is interesting is that in none of them was Ukraine having an election a major issue—indeed its hard to even find it being mentioned.
Lets start with Kellogg’s plan (co-authored with Fred Fleitz) and released by the America First Policy Institute in April 2024. Here is a link to the whole proposal.
Its a relatively lengthy piece, thousands of words, with footnotes. It was easily the most-detailed peace plan released by anyone close to Trump before the election, and covered so many points that I actually wrote a substack about it.
What you will find at no point in the piece is a call for, or even a mention of a Ukrainian election as part of the process (I did a word search—”election” shows up once in the whole text, in the title of a cited piece which discusses elections in Poland and Slovakia). Same with “vote”—nothing about Ukraine having to have one. So—no calls or thoughts of an election from Kellogg.
The same seems to be the case for JD Vance. Now Vance did not have one definite “peace” plan before the election, but was easily one of the most critical voices in the Republican Party towards Ukraine and Zelensky. Indeed, he had so many criticisms that different sources ran pieces on all of them. Vance has basically looked for any excuse to go after Zelensky in particular, even spreading the baseless, Kremlin-inspired lie that Zelensky had bought a yacht with US aid money. I wrote piece which discussed this and other Vance positions on Ukraine.
During the campaign, Vance was more explicit on his ideas on how to end the war—again putting across a plan that would have given Putin basically everything the Russian dictator could have wanted—with one exception. There was no talk of making Ukraine have an election as part of the peace process.
Nor does it seem did Trump say anything about Ukraine having an election. Now Trump never put forward a concrete plan to end the war (except to say he could do it in 24 hours). Yet, even when Trump went on his most anti-Ukraine rants (like he did in this September piece) he never mentioned forcing an election on Ukraine.
So Trump, Vance and Kellogg—the three people who said the most about Ukraine in 2024 from the inside—seemed to think Ukrainian elections were unimportant enough to mention. It was a non-issue.
That was very different than the Russian position. Since Ukrainian elections have been postponed due to the war (which is entirely legal in Ukraine under martial law) the Russian government has called Zelensky illegitimate and pushed for a vote (for a number of reasons I will describe below). In fact, Putin had made a point of personally stressing this. He has always said he could only sign a peace deal after a Ukrainian election, for instance during this visit to China in May 2024. His exact words were:
"If it comes to signing documents, we should sign those documents in such a crucial area with the legitimate authorities,"
So its been a big deal for Russia while being non-existent for the Trump camp.
And then everything changed after the election.
After the Election—A Central Issue
Contacts between Trump and Putin seemed to start almost immediately after Trump was elected. No one knows how often the two of them spoke, or their intermediaries, but it is important to see what has changed since they started changing ideas.
When it comes to the Trump “peace” plan to end the fighting, the amazing thing is how the non-issue of elections in Ukraine have now become vital. The first one to call for this—fascinatingly—was Kellogg. The person who wrote the most detailed peace plan before the US election (which had no mention of needing a Ukrainian vote) now became all hot and bothered that Ukraine had not had a vote. Starting around 1 February he began pressing the case publicly.
"Most democratic nations have elections in their time of war. I think it is important they do so," Mr Kellogg told the Reuters news agency.
He added: "I think it is good for democracy. That's the beauty of a solid democracy, you have more than one person potentially running."
Since then, Kellogg has come back to the Ukrainians needing to have elections a number of times—in even more strident terms. Indeed, though Kellogg was aware that such elections are now illegal under Ukrainian law—he said that Ukraine should have them anyway. And he changed his earlier statement that “most” democratic nations have wartime elections now to “every” one had (which is laughably ignorant—look at the UK in the world wars). Here is what he said to Newsmax.
Kellogg stressed that “every democratic country has elections”, pointing out that the United States has held elections even during times of war.
“They can't right now because it's in their constitution. The Ukrainians may not be able to hold elections until hostilities cease, but at some point, they will need to. That is a sign of a healthy democracy,” Kellogg stated.
Trump also has decided that Ukraine must have a vote—when before he could not care less. Not long after he announced that he had spoken to Putin, Trump also called for Ukrainian presidential elections. And in this case he went further and actually talked down Zelensky as a re-election possibility.
“He’s going to have to do what he has to do,” Trump said of Zelenskiy needing to cede territories. “But, you know, his poll numbers aren’t particularly great, to put it mildly.”
Btw—thats not true. Even after a dip, Zelensky’s popularity ratings in Ukraine are higher than Trump’s in America.
Now the Ukrainians have smelled a rat on this. They see Trump and his people now vociferously taking a position that Putin has long had—and trying to force it on Ukraine. Indeed, its a little rich to require Ukraine to have a vote, when Putin rules as a dictator whose rule is continued because of completely bogus elections.
Why The Shift?
Why has Trump taken so much of a more pro-Kremlin stance since the election? I think its the best example of how Trump and Putin are actually aligning and are working together to achieve similar goals.
Trump’s crack about Zelensky’s poll ratings is illuminating and the best place to start. Trump and Putin both seem to want Zelensky out and at the same time to weaken Ukrainian society’s cohesion. They also want to establish a clear example of how the areas of Ukraine illegally occupied by Russia should no longer be considered Ukraine. Remember Trump has now come out and said Ukraine will have to give up this territory.
Any election campaign right now would also be almost impossible to run. For instance, what would happen to the massive Ukrainian diaspora which left the country when the war started? Even more difficult are all the Ukrainians in occupied territories, which Russia has illegally annexed. There is no way Putin would allow a Ukrainian vote in land he controls—and if that land is taken out of an election, it would establish a terrible precedent.
Moreover, an election in such a fraught conditions would allow for massive instability. The Russians have already shown an extraordinary ability to influence votes and run shadow candidates in normal elections—in a chaotic wartime one it would be a mess. Its also not clear how it could be run? Would Russia cease all attacks during it (unlikely) indeed, it would allow the Russians the ability to take advantage of Ukraine being distracted by internal campaigning to cause even more mayhem. Imagine running a campaign with masses of shaheds attacking your cities every night.
So, the Trump shift seems designed to get rid of Zelensky and weaken Ukraine. And the Ukrainians have finally seemed to understand that. I’ve been told that one of the reasons for the strong shift in the last few days, is that the Ukrainians believe that Trump is out to weaken them for Putin’s sake. Its why more and more, the Ukrainians understand that if they are to keep their democracy and freedom, it will be with the aid of Europe—and not that of the USA.
Certainly, what we can say is that in every instance since the election, when Trump has changed, its been in a way that favors Putin. The election issue might be the most striking, but its hardly alone (see the G-7 statement, the moves towards economic cooperation, the calls for Ukraine to cede territory, the attempts to keep Europeans out of the negotiations over the future of Ukraine etc). It looks very much like a coordinated campaign to me.
And all of these steps have one goal in mind—to strengthen Russia and weaken Ukraine.
Btw: I do believe that Ukraine should have an election. But it needs to be after negotiations and during a period of peace. It cant be held in a country under bombardment.
Elections are want to be a fig leaf for legitimacy of installing a pro-Kremlin government in Kyiv without having to fight anymore for Putin while also engaging in the usual disinformation campaigns. It is just another way to carve up Ukraine without being so explicit about the carve up. But again, the US and Russia forget that Ukraine and Europe have agency as well and after Munich are not likely to just play along.
Excellent points. The elections as a key part of the peace plan appeared to have come out of nowhere and it is incredible how Russian talking points just seem to be cut and pasted into US statements these days. Stating that the US held elections (or even Canada) during wars is facile. These countries were not under direct attack at the time. You can't compare the two. But, that is in line with the MO of this government: lie to create the reality that you want to portray. Another item out of the Kremlin playbook. Note that these statements are always made to friendly news outlets like Newsmax which are there to amplify, not to challenge.