Elections are want to be a fig leaf for legitimacy of installing a pro-Kremlin government in Kyiv without having to fight anymore for Putin while also engaging in the usual disinformation campaigns. It is just another way to carve up Ukraine without being so explicit about the carve up. But again, the US and Russia forget that Ukraine and Europe have agency as well and after Munich are not likely to just play along.
Money they have, Phillips. A well trained and equipped military not so much. But the ability to foment doubt and suspicion is very powerful as we are experiencing now.
They managed to win 2016 election for Trump. And the first round in Romania last year. They may have tipped Brexit too. For crying out loud, at some point Nigel Farage was actually getting a paycheck from the Kremlin.
You are a relentless conspiracy theorist - there is no evidence for any of your assertions. The latest Romania fiasco was caused by money spent by a major Romanian party trying their version of Clinton's 'Pied Piper' strategy. Russiagate was nonsense (see Mueller finding nothing at all) and the Brexit claims were shown to be nonsense by the UK's Informatiopn Comissioner amongst others.
So because Muller didn't find anything (what actually is not true!) about russiagate, then Russia did not intervene in Romania. That's MAGA-logic (means up-is-down).
Mueller did NOT find nothing at all there was plenty there if you actually read it. You are just repeating the spin Barr put on it which the media failed to correct
He found nothing of any substance. Serious what have I missed here? The FBI were bugging Trumps entire campaign and came up with zilch. It's a fairy tale.
Besides, why would Ukraine stop fighting when they have the advantage of interior lines, innovation, and can bleed Russia white as they have been doing? Oh, and help hasten the collapse of the Russian economy as well.
Excellent points. The elections as a key part of the peace plan appeared to have come out of nowhere and it is incredible how Russian talking points just seem to be cut and pasted into US statements these days. Stating that the US held elections (or even Canada) during wars is facile. These countries were not under direct attack at the time. You can't compare the two. But, that is in line with the MO of this government: lie to create the reality that you want to portray. Another item out of the Kremlin playbook. Note that these statements are always made to friendly news outlets like Newsmax which are there to amplify, not to challenge.
I can think of at least two reasons Putin wants an election in Ukraine, and he's fine with it being right after the ceasefire (my understanding that that's what Kellogg meant).
1) With all the chaos (even right after the ceasefire) and massive Russian interference (including exploiting the Ukrainian's bitterness over Western betrayal), there's a significant chance that just like Georgia after the 2008 invasion, Ukraine will elect a government that's friendlier to Russia.
2) To have an election, Ukraine will have to end martial law, even without waiting to see how well the ceasefire holds, whether the promised aid and peacekeepers materialize etc. That will mean reopening the borders, among other things. And that will in turn mean mass exodus of Ukrainian men, both potential future conscripts and actual deserting soldiers (or perhaps those switched from active duty into reserves), fleeing the country in fear of the resumption of war (many of them already have wives and children in Europe). That will weaken Ukraine tremendously. And if the election does not go Putin's way, Putin will start making noises about stolen election and will refuse to conduct negotiations about permanent peace (to replace the ceasefire) with the "illegitimate" government, or will at least make some demands. That may prevent Ukraine from getting US aid conditioned on its participation in the negotiations, and in any case will keep Ukrainians afraid of a new invasion and will reduce available manpower even more.
Of course, there may be some other reasons. E.g. Putin will insist that nobody within the borders of the fours regions formally annexed by Russia should vote, which would exclude millions of voters who have experienced the worst of Russian bombings (due to their proximity to the front). Of course, Ukraine will refuse, but Putin will then be able to call the result illegitimate.
Frankly, this should surprise no one. Trump is so obviously a Russian "useful idiot" that nothing he...or his equally distasteful mouthpieces... say, can be viewed as worth taking seriously. In three weeks his regime has destroyed the balance of power in the world and turned the US hegemon into a laughingstock...albeit a dangerous one. At this point it is anyone's guess as to how this will all turn out. As long as Ukraine gets adequate support from Europe she will survive, even if in a truncated form. As for the US, it is on a downward spiral with no end in sight.
I would say more a dangerous force than a laughingstock. I think we have to pay Trump the compliment of believing he is deadly serious in his plans to weaken democracy in Europe.
Trump does not have the kind of mind that can give serious consideration to several possible policies. Instead, he swallows whole whatever his current favored influencer has on offer. Clearly, Putin fed him 90 mins of the most brilliant strategic thinking marbled with generous dabs of respectful flattery.
Peace! Peace! Peace! Trump truly believes he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.
Just wait until XI has his 90 minutes alone with Trump. Groan...
Supposedly he wants that Nobel. However I think he craves power even more and, like you Kathleen, Im very worried about what he does with China and how that impacts US allies in the Pacific.
I've seen a clip where he vehemently claimed he deserves the Nobel. I don't think he can possibly imagine how revolted the average Norwegian is by his antics. I know he will give up Taiwan. I can't see anything that would stop him. He'll give anything to a dictator who asks nicely.
I just had a hopeful thought. I think that Rubio is our best guarantee that Taiwan will not be abandoned. Just speculating that Rubio plans to go along with anything trump wants except for abandoning Taiwan. Perhaps he is keeping his powder dry and his influence intact until that moment.
Kathleen, unfortunately keeping their powder dry for big events means they wont exercise that even when it is detrimental to the US because they are frightened of a primary. Essentially they are cowards and will not stand up to Trump.
I'm talking about Rubio who is no longer a senator and does not face any primaries. People managed to talk trump out of things in his first term, and maybe it will still be possible this time around.
What I don’t get about the likelihood of Trump giving up Taiwan (which I agree with) is that the US are reliant on Taiwan for their semiconductor supplies. They would need to move semiconductor manufacturing back to the US and that takes time.
"They would need to move semiconductor manufacturing back to the US"
Only if you're worried about national security. Trump clearly isn't. How much would his support for China's takeover of Taiwan cost the CCP? Probably a lot less than trying to take the country by force.
If Trump starts rebuilding Gaza for the Palestinians to live there and secures a peace plan where Russia at least leaves all the territory occupied after feb 24 three years ago, then he maybe could get the Nobel. I know my fellow Norwegian citizens well enough to promise you this is the minimum.
I am starting to believe that Trump has a "vision" of a new world order.
Domination of the world between the US, China and Russia.
Would not be surprised if the US would stand back over Taiwan with a deal for plundering the economy.
This appeared in the Daily Telegraph an hour ago:
Revealed: Trump’s confidential plan to put Ukraine in a stranglehold
Panic in Kyiv as US president demands higher share of GDP than Germany’s First World War reparations
Trump and Zelensky
Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country.
The terms of the contract that landed at Volodymyr Zelensky’s office a week ago amount to the US economic colonisation of Ukraine, in legal perpetuity. It implies a burden of reparations that cannot possibly be achieved. The document has caused consternation and panic in Kyiv.
The Telegraph has obtained a draft of the pre-decisional contract, marked “Privileged & Confidential’ and dated Feb 7 2025. It states that the US and Ukraine should form a joint investment fund to ensure that “hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine”.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Related Topics
US economy, Russia-Ukraine war, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Donald Trump, Ukraine
17 February 2025 4:00pm GMT
1513
Trump and Zelensky
Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country.
The terms of the contract that landed at Volodymyr Zelensky’s office a week ago amount to the US economic colonisation of Ukraine, in legal perpetuity. It implies a burden of reparations that cannot possibly be achieved. The document has caused consternation and panic in Kyiv.
The Telegraph has obtained a draft of the pre-decisional contract, marked “Privileged & Confidential’ and dated Feb 7 2025. It states that the US and Ukraine should form a joint investment fund to ensure that “hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine”.
The agreement covers the “economic value associated with resources of Ukraine”, including “mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports, other infrastructure (as agreed)”, leaving it unclear what else might be encompassed. “This agreement shall be governed by New York law, without regard to conflict of laws principles,” it states.
A follow up thought occurred to me. We say that Trump is a terrible negotiator because he is giving Putin everything even before negotiations start. But, what if that is actually the point? What if in Trump's simple mafioso mind, he wants Putin to "owe him one"? He does Putin a solid and Putin will have to do one back. Now, whether Putin sees it that way or would honour any such implicit commitment is a separate issue. We have to remind ourselves that Trump frames the world based on his experiences (usually unsuccessful) in New York real estate, not in international relations. We should be consulting real estate developers to get inside his mindset.
How about Viktor Yanukovych, can he run again. Yes without a doubt they want to replace Zelenskyy with a Russian puppet. War over control of Ukraine restored. AND TRUMP IS PERFECTLY WILLING TO ASSIST! Un-flippin-believable.
Surely, Yanukovych and Medvechuk would not be eligible to run in a Ukrainian election. They are war criminals, traitors for aiding and abetting the enemy. Any of their envoys or acolytes should be ineligible too. Also, Putin is not above ‘eliminating’ the opposition of a pro-Russian candidates.
"Indeed, its a little rich to require Ukraine to have a vote, when Putin rules as a dictator whose rule is continued because of completely bogus elections."
Would it be worth Zelensky saying "Sure... we'll hold our elections the same day the OSCE run an election in Russia as their current president is in his 5th term despite their constitution only allowing two..."
And perhaps "If we're going to hold an election we may as well run a referendum in Sudzha on the same day to see if the entirety of Kursk Oblast wants to join Ukraine. As it's not currently Ukrainian territory we won't use our election law - we'll run the elections in the same way Russia held elections on our occupied lands."
Much of the playbook for interfering with US elections was developed by the Russian-affiliated parties in eastern Ukraine, over many years. I once witnessed a PoR rally and was amazed at how American it seemed in its planning. That was the Paul Manafort effect. The last election in Ukraine was carried out largely without the pressures that occurred in earlier elections - and I have often wondered if that democratic choice was what led Russia to invade its neighbour.
Europe needs to treat Trump's USA as a potentially hostile nation in the context of the Ukraine war and European security generally. Trump sees everything through the lense of a zero sum game. If Europe and Ukraine loses he wins. "I told them in 2016 they didn't listen would not have happened if the 2020 results had not been faked". Additionally Europe needs a change of mindset. It should move from "what do we need to do to make sure Putin does not win in Ukraine" to "what do we need to do to make sure we defeat Putin in Europe including Ukraine". Yes make sure Ukraine is supported as it is our frontline but the scale of the change needed is much bigger than that alone. For example, we need to think about what capabilities are needed to threaten Kaliningrad and Belarus and close the Baltic Sea, deploy them and make it clear to Putin he will lose these things if he persists with his aggression. The carrot and the stick is not an attractive approach but it works better when there is a stick.
Phillips, your analysis yesterday and today were spot on. Thanks.
European leaders meeting in France today is I believe, albeit rather late, Europe waking up to the threat of US capitulation to Russia. I've seen posts today and yesterday suggesting that there is a deliberate purpose to this capitulation and I'm sure history will formulate its verdict in time. However, even now the US fails to recognise that Ukraine and Europe have agency and by excluding them in such an aggretious manner, will not make them receptive to any agreement between the US and Russia. The best security guarantee that Ukraine has at the moment is their field army currently deployed and fighting across the line of contact.
The US will not supply anymore material to Ukraine and Europe now knows that the US cannot be relied upon should Russia turn its attention to NATO. I'm hoping that what is being discussed today in France is how Europe minus the US shapes the future security architecture.
Phillips, yesterday you were critical of Starmer and I get that, but I'm sure he views his role at the moment as a bridge between Europe and the US. My concern is that acting as a bridge goes on for too long when it is clear that the UK will have to make a choice and side with Europe. I'm sure he's concerned about how close the UK is integrated with US security systems but it is fast approaching that the US is no longer reliable even with the UK's "special relationship". My view is that this relationship is gone and the UK needs to forge its path with Europe whilst Trump is in the WH.
This is coming to a head and I am convinced Ukraine, Europe and the UK will remain united and it will be the US which becomes isolated. The US can grab its ankles for Russia, but without Ukraine and Europe agreeing, that peace plan is heading for the f***it bucket. I'm sure Trump will threaten all sorts of tariffs but he was going to do it anyway and Europe, I'm sure has factored that in.
These peace talks are going nowhere and I suspect are more Trump laying the ground work to lift sanctions and return to business as usual. However, if the UK and Europe maintain their solidarity and keep sanctions on, any US company doing business in Russia will not be able to do it in the UK and Europe without finacial penalties. A real problem for the US.
Anyway, let us see how Europe and the UK formulate their response.
I'm afraid if Europe doesn't step up now, it never will. The handwriting is on the wall and if it's not read, it can only be because there has been a decision to willfully ignore it. So I'm keeping hope alive...hoping that this meeting today will actually come to be seen as the decisive turning point.
David, like you I believe that Ukraine's future is in the hands of their European supporters. Let us hope they are up to the task. They need to do their duty and not grab their ankles. 🤔
I'm curious the reason Musk and Vance are supporting the AfD actually is on the behalf of Russia. If AfD should land in any kind of position that enables them to secure power for either the SPD or the CSU/CDU, I'm afraid everything will be lost for Ukraine.
On the contrary, if Merz cuts a definite win and Ukraine gets a lot of Taurus missiles, there could be some hope...
Elections are want to be a fig leaf for legitimacy of installing a pro-Kremlin government in Kyiv without having to fight anymore for Putin while also engaging in the usual disinformation campaigns. It is just another way to carve up Ukraine without being so explicit about the carve up. But again, the US and Russia forget that Ukraine and Europe have agency as well and after Munich are not likely to just play along.
Or at least instability. The amount of money and effort that the kremlin would use to corrupt those elections would be staggering
Money they have, Phillips. A well trained and equipped military not so much. But the ability to foment doubt and suspicion is very powerful as we are experiencing now.
They managed to win 2016 election for Trump. And the first round in Romania last year. They may have tipped Brexit too. For crying out loud, at some point Nigel Farage was actually getting a paycheck from the Kremlin.
You are preaching to the choir! Don’t forget supporting AfD in Germany as well as the far right in Slovakia and Orban in Hungary.
I skipped AfD for brevity :-)
You are a relentless conspiracy theorist - there is no evidence for any of your assertions. The latest Romania fiasco was caused by money spent by a major Romanian party trying their version of Clinton's 'Pied Piper' strategy. Russiagate was nonsense (see Mueller finding nothing at all) and the Brexit claims were shown to be nonsense by the UK's Informatiopn Comissioner amongst others.
So because Muller didn't find anything (what actually is not true!) about russiagate, then Russia did not intervene in Romania. That's MAGA-logic (means up-is-down).
There you go again.
Yep - and I will keep doing so every time you trot out the conspiracist drivel.
For Russiagate read this:
https://www.cjr.org/special_report/trumped-up-press-versus-president-part-1.php
Mueller did NOT find nothing at all there was plenty there if you actually read it. You are just repeating the spin Barr put on it which the media failed to correct
He found nothing of any substance. Serious what have I missed here? The FBI were bugging Trumps entire campaign and came up with zilch. It's a fairy tale.
Besides, why would Ukraine stop fighting when they have the advantage of interior lines, innovation, and can bleed Russia white as they have been doing? Oh, and help hasten the collapse of the Russian economy as well.
Indeed
Excellent points. The elections as a key part of the peace plan appeared to have come out of nowhere and it is incredible how Russian talking points just seem to be cut and pasted into US statements these days. Stating that the US held elections (or even Canada) during wars is facile. These countries were not under direct attack at the time. You can't compare the two. But, that is in line with the MO of this government: lie to create the reality that you want to portray. Another item out of the Kremlin playbook. Note that these statements are always made to friendly news outlets like Newsmax which are there to amplify, not to challenge.
Cant disagree with that Orest.
I can think of at least two reasons Putin wants an election in Ukraine, and he's fine with it being right after the ceasefire (my understanding that that's what Kellogg meant).
1) With all the chaos (even right after the ceasefire) and massive Russian interference (including exploiting the Ukrainian's bitterness over Western betrayal), there's a significant chance that just like Georgia after the 2008 invasion, Ukraine will elect a government that's friendlier to Russia.
2) To have an election, Ukraine will have to end martial law, even without waiting to see how well the ceasefire holds, whether the promised aid and peacekeepers materialize etc. That will mean reopening the borders, among other things. And that will in turn mean mass exodus of Ukrainian men, both potential future conscripts and actual deserting soldiers (or perhaps those switched from active duty into reserves), fleeing the country in fear of the resumption of war (many of them already have wives and children in Europe). That will weaken Ukraine tremendously. And if the election does not go Putin's way, Putin will start making noises about stolen election and will refuse to conduct negotiations about permanent peace (to replace the ceasefire) with the "illegitimate" government, or will at least make some demands. That may prevent Ukraine from getting US aid conditioned on its participation in the negotiations, and in any case will keep Ukrainians afraid of a new invasion and will reduce available manpower even more.
Of course, there may be some other reasons. E.g. Putin will insist that nobody within the borders of the fours regions formally annexed by Russia should vote, which would exclude millions of voters who have experienced the worst of Russian bombings (due to their proximity to the front). Of course, Ukraine will refuse, but Putin will then be able to call the result illegitimate.
The relaxing of martial law point is a good one--I should have made it.
I don't even know other aspects of it, so Putin may have even more reasons to want it lifted.
Frankly, this should surprise no one. Trump is so obviously a Russian "useful idiot" that nothing he...or his equally distasteful mouthpieces... say, can be viewed as worth taking seriously. In three weeks his regime has destroyed the balance of power in the world and turned the US hegemon into a laughingstock...albeit a dangerous one. At this point it is anyone's guess as to how this will all turn out. As long as Ukraine gets adequate support from Europe she will survive, even if in a truncated form. As for the US, it is on a downward spiral with no end in sight.
I would say more a dangerous force than a laughingstock. I think we have to pay Trump the compliment of believing he is deadly serious in his plans to weaken democracy in Europe.
Trump does not have the kind of mind that can give serious consideration to several possible policies. Instead, he swallows whole whatever his current favored influencer has on offer. Clearly, Putin fed him 90 mins of the most brilliant strategic thinking marbled with generous dabs of respectful flattery.
Peace! Peace! Peace! Trump truly believes he deserves the Nobel Peace Prize.
Just wait until XI has his 90 minutes alone with Trump. Groan...
Supposedly he wants that Nobel. However I think he craves power even more and, like you Kathleen, Im very worried about what he does with China and how that impacts US allies in the Pacific.
I've seen a clip where he vehemently claimed he deserves the Nobel. I don't think he can possibly imagine how revolted the average Norwegian is by his antics. I know he will give up Taiwan. I can't see anything that would stop him. He'll give anything to a dictator who asks nicely.
and pays a little fee....
I just had a hopeful thought. I think that Rubio is our best guarantee that Taiwan will not be abandoned. Just speculating that Rubio plans to go along with anything trump wants except for abandoning Taiwan. Perhaps he is keeping his powder dry and his influence intact until that moment.
Kathleen, unfortunately keeping their powder dry for big events means they wont exercise that even when it is detrimental to the US because they are frightened of a primary. Essentially they are cowards and will not stand up to Trump.
I'm talking about Rubio who is no longer a senator and does not face any primaries. People managed to talk trump out of things in his first term, and maybe it will still be possible this time around.
What I don’t get about the likelihood of Trump giving up Taiwan (which I agree with) is that the US are reliant on Taiwan for their semiconductor supplies. They would need to move semiconductor manufacturing back to the US and that takes time.
"They would need to move semiconductor manufacturing back to the US"
Only if you're worried about national security. Trump clearly isn't. How much would his support for China's takeover of Taiwan cost the CCP? Probably a lot less than trying to take the country by force.
If Trump starts rebuilding Gaza for the Palestinians to live there and secures a peace plan where Russia at least leaves all the territory occupied after feb 24 three years ago, then he maybe could get the Nobel. I know my fellow Norwegian citizens well enough to promise you this is the minimum.
I am starting to believe that Trump has a "vision" of a new world order.
Domination of the world between the US, China and Russia.
Would not be surprised if the US would stand back over Taiwan with a deal for plundering the economy.
This appeared in the Daily Telegraph an hour ago:
Revealed: Trump’s confidential plan to put Ukraine in a stranglehold
Panic in Kyiv as US president demands higher share of GDP than Germany’s First World War reparations
Trump and Zelensky
Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country.
The terms of the contract that landed at Volodymyr Zelensky’s office a week ago amount to the US economic colonisation of Ukraine, in legal perpetuity. It implies a burden of reparations that cannot possibly be achieved. The document has caused consternation and panic in Kyiv.
The Telegraph has obtained a draft of the pre-decisional contract, marked “Privileged & Confidential’ and dated Feb 7 2025. It states that the US and Ukraine should form a joint investment fund to ensure that “hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine”.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Related Topics
US economy, Russia-Ukraine war, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Donald Trump, Ukraine
17 February 2025 4:00pm GMT
1513
Trump and Zelensky
Donald Trump’s demand for a $500bn (£400bn) “payback” from Ukraine goes far beyond US control over the country’s critical minerals. It covers everything from ports and infrastructure to oil and gas, and the larger resource base of the country.
The terms of the contract that landed at Volodymyr Zelensky’s office a week ago amount to the US economic colonisation of Ukraine, in legal perpetuity. It implies a burden of reparations that cannot possibly be achieved. The document has caused consternation and panic in Kyiv.
The Telegraph has obtained a draft of the pre-decisional contract, marked “Privileged & Confidential’ and dated Feb 7 2025. It states that the US and Ukraine should form a joint investment fund to ensure that “hostile parties to the conflict do not benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine”.
The agreement covers the “economic value associated with resources of Ukraine”, including “mineral resources, oil and gas resources, ports, other infrastructure (as agreed)”, leaving it unclear what else might be encompassed. “This agreement shall be governed by New York law, without regard to conflict of laws principles,” it states.
Fascists use the mechanisms of the democratic system of government to bring it down.
Joseph Goebbels said:
"It will always remain one of democracy's best jokes that it provided its deadly enemies with the means by which it was destroyed."
“The coming of the Third Reich” - Richard Evans
Yes--and tragically Putin has also figured this out
A follow up thought occurred to me. We say that Trump is a terrible negotiator because he is giving Putin everything even before negotiations start. But, what if that is actually the point? What if in Trump's simple mafioso mind, he wants Putin to "owe him one"? He does Putin a solid and Putin will have to do one back. Now, whether Putin sees it that way or would honour any such implicit commitment is a separate issue. We have to remind ourselves that Trump frames the world based on his experiences (usually unsuccessful) in New York real estate, not in international relations. We should be consulting real estate developers to get inside his mindset.
Agree--he wants Putin to do well. so he negotiating well from that perspective
But he's not a REAL real estate developer - he just played one on TV.
How about Viktor Yanukovych, can he run again. Yes without a doubt they want to replace Zelenskyy with a Russian puppet. War over control of Ukraine restored. AND TRUMP IS PERFECTLY WILLING TO ASSIST! Un-flippin-believable.
I have no idea about Yanukovych's eligibility. But yes, they both want Zelensky out.
Surely, Yanukovych and Medvechuk would not be eligible to run in a Ukrainian election. They are war criminals, traitors for aiding and abetting the enemy. Any of their envoys or acolytes should be ineligible too. Also, Putin is not above ‘eliminating’ the opposition of a pro-Russian candidates.
Shahed targets would be decided by election polling results.
both putin and trump want the breakup of the eu, this ia only the present arrow in their sling
they both would like that
As usual, with Trump and Putin, follow the money.
Kellogg seemed to be the most serious official on Ukraine of the Maga administration (my impression at least). He is not even invited to Saudi Arabia
Yes--that was interesting, Kellogg looks to be excluded from any real decision making.
why is this happening
"Indeed, its a little rich to require Ukraine to have a vote, when Putin rules as a dictator whose rule is continued because of completely bogus elections."
Would it be worth Zelensky saying "Sure... we'll hold our elections the same day the OSCE run an election in Russia as their current president is in his 5th term despite their constitution only allowing two..."
And perhaps "If we're going to hold an election we may as well run a referendum in Sudzha on the same day to see if the entirety of Kursk Oblast wants to join Ukraine. As it's not currently Ukrainian territory we won't use our election law - we'll run the elections in the same way Russia held elections on our occupied lands."
Outstanding. 🤣
US has become mad.
Or more accurately--an enemy of freedom while Trump is president
Much of the playbook for interfering with US elections was developed by the Russian-affiliated parties in eastern Ukraine, over many years. I once witnessed a PoR rally and was amazed at how American it seemed in its planning. That was the Paul Manafort effect. The last election in Ukraine was carried out largely without the pressures that occurred in earlier elections - and I have often wondered if that democratic choice was what led Russia to invade its neighbour.
Europe needs to treat Trump's USA as a potentially hostile nation in the context of the Ukraine war and European security generally. Trump sees everything through the lense of a zero sum game. If Europe and Ukraine loses he wins. "I told them in 2016 they didn't listen would not have happened if the 2020 results had not been faked". Additionally Europe needs a change of mindset. It should move from "what do we need to do to make sure Putin does not win in Ukraine" to "what do we need to do to make sure we defeat Putin in Europe including Ukraine". Yes make sure Ukraine is supported as it is our frontline but the scale of the change needed is much bigger than that alone. For example, we need to think about what capabilities are needed to threaten Kaliningrad and Belarus and close the Baltic Sea, deploy them and make it clear to Putin he will lose these things if he persists with his aggression. The carrot and the stick is not an attractive approach but it works better when there is a stick.
Phillips, your analysis yesterday and today were spot on. Thanks.
European leaders meeting in France today is I believe, albeit rather late, Europe waking up to the threat of US capitulation to Russia. I've seen posts today and yesterday suggesting that there is a deliberate purpose to this capitulation and I'm sure history will formulate its verdict in time. However, even now the US fails to recognise that Ukraine and Europe have agency and by excluding them in such an aggretious manner, will not make them receptive to any agreement between the US and Russia. The best security guarantee that Ukraine has at the moment is their field army currently deployed and fighting across the line of contact.
The US will not supply anymore material to Ukraine and Europe now knows that the US cannot be relied upon should Russia turn its attention to NATO. I'm hoping that what is being discussed today in France is how Europe minus the US shapes the future security architecture.
Phillips, yesterday you were critical of Starmer and I get that, but I'm sure he views his role at the moment as a bridge between Europe and the US. My concern is that acting as a bridge goes on for too long when it is clear that the UK will have to make a choice and side with Europe. I'm sure he's concerned about how close the UK is integrated with US security systems but it is fast approaching that the US is no longer reliable even with the UK's "special relationship". My view is that this relationship is gone and the UK needs to forge its path with Europe whilst Trump is in the WH.
This is coming to a head and I am convinced Ukraine, Europe and the UK will remain united and it will be the US which becomes isolated. The US can grab its ankles for Russia, but without Ukraine and Europe agreeing, that peace plan is heading for the f***it bucket. I'm sure Trump will threaten all sorts of tariffs but he was going to do it anyway and Europe, I'm sure has factored that in.
These peace talks are going nowhere and I suspect are more Trump laying the ground work to lift sanctions and return to business as usual. However, if the UK and Europe maintain their solidarity and keep sanctions on, any US company doing business in Russia will not be able to do it in the UK and Europe without finacial penalties. A real problem for the US.
Anyway, let us see how Europe and the UK formulate their response.
I'm afraid if Europe doesn't step up now, it never will. The handwriting is on the wall and if it's not read, it can only be because there has been a decision to willfully ignore it. So I'm keeping hope alive...hoping that this meeting today will actually come to be seen as the decisive turning point.
David, like you I believe that Ukraine's future is in the hands of their European supporters. Let us hope they are up to the task. They need to do their duty and not grab their ankles. 🤔
I'm curious the reason Musk and Vance are supporting the AfD actually is on the behalf of Russia. If AfD should land in any kind of position that enables them to secure power for either the SPD or the CSU/CDU, I'm afraid everything will be lost for Ukraine.
On the contrary, if Merz cuts a definite win and Ukraine gets a lot of Taurus missiles, there could be some hope...