Oppose Trump and MAGA. Speak out against him every chance I get. Having said the above, Europe absolutely has to step up!
Maybe it is too soon to know, but Merz seems to be impressive. Germany needs to help provide more air defense and collaborate with Ukraine in developing European versions of Patriots. France and the UK too!
Why have factories not already been built in Europe? Conscriptions not already started ? It has been 31/2 years!
“Why have factories not already been built in Europe? Conscriptions not already started? It has been 31/2 years!”
Most European politicians and the media are still busy maintaining the illusion that the war in Ukraine is far away and that what is going on in the US is merely some kind of politics that we don’t need to be concerned with so much.
I abhor Donald Trump. I wish he would send Ukraine the weapons that the courageous people need and deserve.
Nonetheless, a part of me believes that as pathetic as Trump and MAGA are (and they are), this Trump level of venality and irresponsibility is what it takes to impose the necessity of taking responsibility for your own defense upon Europe.
On another site, the context of the Russian war against Ukraine, the issue of Europe increasing its financial investment in Europe’s own defense arose. Instead of a rational conversation about the issue, a European commentator switched the topic in caustic language to the ‘purpose and history of NATO (‘prevent nuclear war during the Cold War) and railed against the US for having large defense budgets, as if that had any relevance to Putin’s motivations for the invasion of Ukraine and restoring imperial Russia.
It does not!
Europeans react to US requests for Europeans to pay more for their defense as if we are still in the aftermath of WW II.
We are not.
We need the return of the spirit of the French Resistance to step up and support Ukraine.
Unless I'm forgetting something, over the last three years Russia has not captured any Ukrainian city with a pre-2022 population of 80,000 or higher, and has not captured any city with a pre-2022 population of 40,000 or higher over the last two years. Can anyone explain to me in simple words what is it that Russia is doing there? Yes, I've heard of motorcycle charges. Half a league onward. Drone to right of them, drone to left of them, drone in front them... Their's not to reason why, and all that. But as Marshal Bosquet said, "C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas la guerre."
“Special military operation”: A military operation that is so special that it does not make sense unless looked at through the twisted perspective of Russian propaganda.
“It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.”
Zbigniew Brzeziński, in his book “Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power”. Ukrainians, having lived under occupation by the Tsars, the Soviets and the russians understand: It is better to live, fight and die as a free Ukrainian than live as a russian slave.
Yes, that's why I don't believe in a "compromise" or whatever they call it. Truly independent and sovereign Ukrainian state on 80% of Ukrainian territory is no more acceptable to Putin than the one on 100%. So he won't accept one fifth of Ukraine as a consolation prize for "losing" the rest of it. He'll always insist on other terms restricting the sovereignty and preserving his ability to attack again later, and the Ukrainians will never agree to that. All this talk about a ceasefire is only meant to humor Trump.
Furthermore, Russian imperialism is not good for the ordinary Russians as it has only drained tremendous resources for centuries without any tangible benefit for them. The end of the imperial dream will be good for them in the long run. Portugal and Spain were the first European countries to start empires and the last ones to lose them just half a century ago. And over the last 50 years of being just nation states instead of empires they have experienced tremendous growth in prosperity. Although the Russians now have an additional problem: it's a lot easier to acquire a reputation for barbarism than to lose it.
Mick Ryan thinks Russia’s use of motorcycles for largely unsupported assault purposes is “an evolutionary dead end”. As part of combined arms he seems to think it makes sense.
The US under the orange narcissist is a treasonous lot and helping kill Ukrainians for Trump’s damaged self and profit motive is beyond words. And that is even before we see what is happening domestically with concentration camps being built.
But as you note, on the line of contact Russia is being bled white for no meaningful gains. As noted by Lawrence Freedman this morning, Putin has already lost as he has been unable to reach his political objectives.
But in the meantime more lives will be lost needlessly and the US will wear this shame for the next generation or more.
The tragedy with the current situation to which you allude begs expansion in full.
From a military operational perspective Russia cannot advance without taking horrific losses. Drones make such advances fraught with peril.
From a human perspective, Putin and Trump seem to be fine allowing Russian armed forces to kill/maim/dishome Ukrainian civilians AS A TACTIC to force Ukrainian submission.
This is the worst of WW2 happening before our eyes.
That Ukraine has maintained its focus on attacking only Russian military targets is impressive (and quite useful diplomatically), but for how long?
Probably there is such a phrase in every dictatorship. In Nazi Germany it was: Wenn das der Führer wüsste…some (like David Irving) claiming until today that Hitler did not intend to murder the jews.
Why do you assume that they’re not already on the way? If that is happening, I’d expect it to be announced not by mere words, but in a rather more dramatic way by means of explosions that destroy the Kerch bridge.
“Note: We still do not know that Trump did not explicitly ok this decision verbally—perhaps he did.”
Even if he did, he and the rest of his government might (if that turns out to be politically expedient) choose to lie about it. Trump saying something is not positively correlated with him having reason to believe it to be true.
May the new industrial partnership between the UK and Ukraine to increase information and expertise sharing on drone-based air defence step into the Fast Lane and start to help Ukraine move ahead in countering the air onslaught now the American off-ramp is behind us!
War has always been an incentive to develop more lethal arms, i.e. the tank in WWI and the atomic bomb in WWII. So it doesn't come as a surprise to see AI drones rule a grey zone at the front, making militairy maneuvering and logistics very complex. The next logical step would be drone swarms that render traditional air defense useless. We haven't seen the full capabilities of drone wars yet. It certainly won't be any pretty and despite the ethical objections and moral consequences, the bizarre scenario of movies like Terminator will become reality.
Is it not obvious that the military assistance to Ukraine has been stopped in order to force the Ukrainians to be more accommodating to Putin's conditions for a ceasefire, so that Trump can claim he has delivered "peace"?
"Comrade Donald" is too mild, perhaps "Comrade Caligula". Given the impact of Trump Always Chickens Out on ill duce's fragile ego -- arguably, he TACO'd out of his "two weeks" TACO play re Iran -- may I suggest: Donald Is Putin's Poodle. Appropriately, DIPP also stands for Dynamic Inflatable Penile Prosthesis. (Seriously)
"Europe will have to make up for the fact that the US is now serving Russian interests in this area."
Have they not already recognized this and come to the appropriate conclusions? Isn't this why the Germans, in particular, are ramping up production of weapons and ammunition, including Rheinmetall's joint ventures with Ukraine via an MoU for closer strategic cooperation? By now Trump is an "open book"...albeit one that keeps rewriting itself. While hoping for the best, everyone, including Ukraine, is planning for the worst. Unfortunately for all concerned, it's usually the "worst".
As to this latest fiasco vis a vis the halted supplies to Ukraine along with the Pentagon denial that shortages of missiles "...would not drain U.S. supplies below a required threshold needed to ensure military readiness.” there seems to be any number of well sourced articles that suggest otherwise. As this report from "Responsible Statecraft" highlights, the basic premise is that missile production of high-end interceptors like Patriot (not the only one per this article) is lagging far behind necessary levels if a conflict with a peer, such as China, should arise. I am not saying that there are none available to send to Ukraine, but the numbers that would be necessary to provide adequate, extended defense don't seem to be there and I think that there are some planning officers in the Pentagon who are very concerned with the supply and replacement issues.
This being the case, the need for Europe to step up its supply of medium range systems such as IRIS-T, is all the more crucial for Ukraine. It may be that Germany will be the ultimate replacement for the U.S. and Merz and Pistorius seem to understand the deeper dangers that even a Russian "stalemate" in the war will present to Germany and Europe, at large, in the near future.
“I am not saying that there are none available to send to Ukraine, but the numbers that would be necessary to provide adequate, extended defense don't seem to be there and I think that there are some planning officers in the Pentagon who are very concerned with the supply and replacement issues.”
Ok, fair point, but here is another fair point: winning in Ukraine makes the need for Patriots and other weapons less likely to be needed in the Pacific, as a Chinese diplomat just recently alluded to (Russia must win to divert the US from being able to fully engage in the Pacific.
Of course, Western Europe needs to step it even faster and free the US to deter China and let us all win together in all places.
"winning in Ukraine makes the need for Patriots and other weapons less likely to be needed in the Pacific, as a Chinese diplomat just recently alluded to (Russia must win to divert the US from being able to fully engage in the Pacific."
This is exactly the point, Henry. Which is why the advocates for a pivot to China while ignoring Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine were/are so wrong. Russia can't be wished away, as its role is integral to China's goals.
I also read that comment by the Chinese diplomat, and was taken aback by its honesty. But anyone who's been paying attention would have already known that.
China would like nothing better than continued U.S. involvement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict for a variety of reasons but the fact remains that Patriot systems are in short supply (partially due to an anemic production capacity) and will be stretched even further because the U.S. Navy wants to put them aboard its warships. It will have to be Germany's IRIS-T, in quantity, until future improvements provide a substitute for Patriot.
I kind of agree. But more Patriots will soon be made in Germany than in the US. And if Russia continues to menace Europe, those missiles will stay in Europe instead of being used to deter China.
If my memory serves me correctly there was also "If the Führer only knew" in Nazi Germany. There are ignorant, gullible people everywhere, the low hanging fruit for the tyrants' propagandists.
I think it's way past time for Ukrainian missiles, now that their stock of heavy homemade cruise missiles is increasing, and long-range UAVs as well, to pepper Moscow, especially the Kremlin itself. And nothing would upset the Muscovites more than if Ukraine bombards and effectively closes the ring road, stopping Russian road traffic from entering or leaving their work place and their homes.
That would be dramatic, but the real plum, of course, would be aerial attacks on St. Petersburg, Putin's favorite place and the jewel of Russia. Knock out a few bridges over the Nevsky and see what happens. Anything and everything can be justified on military grounds.
Oppose Trump and MAGA. Speak out against him every chance I get. Having said the above, Europe absolutely has to step up!
Maybe it is too soon to know, but Merz seems to be impressive. Germany needs to help provide more air defense and collaborate with Ukraine in developing European versions of Patriots. France and the UK too!
Why have factories not already been built in Europe? Conscriptions not already started ? It has been 31/2 years!
Merz has said that from now on, German military aid to Ukraine will be on essentially a need to know basis.
Well, of course. For several reasons. How much of what, and when, and where? Keep Russia guessing.
Public disclosures and an informed pubic - and an informed enemy - vs strategic silence. Not a difficult call, eh?
“Why have factories not already been built in Europe? Conscriptions not already started? It has been 31/2 years!”
Most European politicians and the media are still busy maintaining the illusion that the war in Ukraine is far away and that what is going on in the US is merely some kind of politics that we don’t need to be concerned with so much.
I abhor Donald Trump. I wish he would send Ukraine the weapons that the courageous people need and deserve.
Nonetheless, a part of me believes that as pathetic as Trump and MAGA are (and they are), this Trump level of venality and irresponsibility is what it takes to impose the necessity of taking responsibility for your own defense upon Europe.
On another site, the context of the Russian war against Ukraine, the issue of Europe increasing its financial investment in Europe’s own defense arose. Instead of a rational conversation about the issue, a European commentator switched the topic in caustic language to the ‘purpose and history of NATO (‘prevent nuclear war during the Cold War) and railed against the US for having large defense budgets, as if that had any relevance to Putin’s motivations for the invasion of Ukraine and restoring imperial Russia.
It does not!
Europeans react to US requests for Europeans to pay more for their defense as if we are still in the aftermath of WW II.
We are not.
We need the return of the spirit of the French Resistance to step up and support Ukraine.
Unless I'm forgetting something, over the last three years Russia has not captured any Ukrainian city with a pre-2022 population of 80,000 or higher, and has not captured any city with a pre-2022 population of 40,000 or higher over the last two years. Can anyone explain to me in simple words what is it that Russia is doing there? Yes, I've heard of motorcycle charges. Half a league onward. Drone to right of them, drone to left of them, drone in front them... Their's not to reason why, and all that. But as Marshal Bosquet said, "C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas la guerre."
“Special military operation”: A military operation that is so special that it does not make sense unless looked at through the twisted perspective of Russian propaganda.
“It cannot be stressed enough that without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine suborned and then subordinated, Russia automatically becomes an empire.”
Zbigniew Brzeziński, in his book “Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power”. Ukrainians, having lived under occupation by the Tsars, the Soviets and the russians understand: It is better to live, fight and die as a free Ukrainian than live as a russian slave.
Slava Ukraini!
Geroyam slava.
Yes, that's why I don't believe in a "compromise" or whatever they call it. Truly independent and sovereign Ukrainian state on 80% of Ukrainian territory is no more acceptable to Putin than the one on 100%. So he won't accept one fifth of Ukraine as a consolation prize for "losing" the rest of it. He'll always insist on other terms restricting the sovereignty and preserving his ability to attack again later, and the Ukrainians will never agree to that. All this talk about a ceasefire is only meant to humor Trump.
Furthermore, Russian imperialism is not good for the ordinary Russians as it has only drained tremendous resources for centuries without any tangible benefit for them. The end of the imperial dream will be good for them in the long run. Portugal and Spain were the first European countries to start empires and the last ones to lose them just half a century ago. And over the last 50 years of being just nation states instead of empires they have experienced tremendous growth in prosperity. Although the Russians now have an additional problem: it's a lot easier to acquire a reputation for barbarism than to lose it.
Ukraine has also formed it's own motorbike units and for good reasons. I suggest you read Front Intelligence's article here on Substack:
"21st-Century Dragoons: Dissecting Russia’s Motorcycle Assault Tactics"
https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/21st-century-dragoons-dissecting
Mick Ryan thinks Russia’s use of motorcycles for largely unsupported assault purposes is “an evolutionary dead end”. As part of combined arms he seems to think it makes sense.
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/not-all-adaptation-is-good
The US under the orange narcissist is a treasonous lot and helping kill Ukrainians for Trump’s damaged self and profit motive is beyond words. And that is even before we see what is happening domestically with concentration camps being built.
But as you note, on the line of contact Russia is being bled white for no meaningful gains. As noted by Lawrence Freedman this morning, Putin has already lost as he has been unable to reach his political objectives.
But in the meantime more lives will be lost needlessly and the US will wear this shame for the next generation or more.
The tragedy with the current situation to which you allude begs expansion in full.
From a military operational perspective Russia cannot advance without taking horrific losses. Drones make such advances fraught with peril.
From a human perspective, Putin and Trump seem to be fine allowing Russian armed forces to kill/maim/dishome Ukrainian civilians AS A TACTIC to force Ukrainian submission.
This is the worst of WW2 happening before our eyes.
That Ukraine has maintained its focus on attacking only Russian military targets is impressive (and quite useful diplomatically), but for how long?
And what then?
What an avoidable horrorshow.
“That Ukraine has maintained its focus on attacking only Russian military targets is impressive (and quite useful diplomatically), but for how long? “
Until the Putin loses his ability to supply his invading and occupying Army. And that day is coming sooner rather than later.
Probably there is such a phrase in every dictatorship. In Nazi Germany it was: Wenn das der Führer wüsste…some (like David Irving) claiming until today that Hitler did not intend to murder the jews.
Ach! So habe ich auch gedacht
Why don't Merz give Kyiv some Taurus-missiles? Are they afraid of disclosing the technology?
Why do you assume that they’re not already on the way? If that is happening, I’d expect it to be announced not by mere words, but in a rather more dramatic way by means of explosions that destroy the Kerch bridge.
“Note: We still do not know that Trump did not explicitly ok this decision verbally—perhaps he did.”
Even if he did, he and the rest of his government might (if that turns out to be politically expedient) choose to lie about it. Trump saying something is not positively correlated with him having reason to believe it to be true.
May the new industrial partnership between the UK and Ukraine to increase information and expertise sharing on drone-based air defence step into the Fast Lane and start to help Ukraine move ahead in countering the air onslaught now the American off-ramp is behind us!
War has always been an incentive to develop more lethal arms, i.e. the tank in WWI and the atomic bomb in WWII. So it doesn't come as a surprise to see AI drones rule a grey zone at the front, making militairy maneuvering and logistics very complex. The next logical step would be drone swarms that render traditional air defense useless. We haven't seen the full capabilities of drone wars yet. It certainly won't be any pretty and despite the ethical objections and moral consequences, the bizarre scenario of movies like Terminator will become reality.
The fantasy of the ultimate weapon is as old as technology itself, and we seem doomed to remain in its thrall.
If the capabilities of LLMs are any indication then effective countermeasures to "AI" weapons will quickly proliferate.
Is it not obvious that the military assistance to Ukraine has been stopped in order to force the Ukrainians to be more accommodating to Putin's conditions for a ceasefire, so that Trump can claim he has delivered "peace"?
We will keep advocating for Ukraine. Period.
"Comrade Donald" is too mild, perhaps "Comrade Caligula". Given the impact of Trump Always Chickens Out on ill duce's fragile ego -- arguably, he TACO'd out of his "two weeks" TACO play re Iran -- may I suggest: Donald Is Putin's Poodle. Appropriately, DIPP also stands for Dynamic Inflatable Penile Prosthesis. (Seriously)
"Europe will have to make up for the fact that the US is now serving Russian interests in this area."
Have they not already recognized this and come to the appropriate conclusions? Isn't this why the Germans, in particular, are ramping up production of weapons and ammunition, including Rheinmetall's joint ventures with Ukraine via an MoU for closer strategic cooperation? By now Trump is an "open book"...albeit one that keeps rewriting itself. While hoping for the best, everyone, including Ukraine, is planning for the worst. Unfortunately for all concerned, it's usually the "worst".
As to this latest fiasco vis a vis the halted supplies to Ukraine along with the Pentagon denial that shortages of missiles "...would not drain U.S. supplies below a required threshold needed to ensure military readiness.” there seems to be any number of well sourced articles that suggest otherwise. As this report from "Responsible Statecraft" highlights, the basic premise is that missile production of high-end interceptors like Patriot (not the only one per this article) is lagging far behind necessary levels if a conflict with a peer, such as China, should arise. I am not saying that there are none available to send to Ukraine, but the numbers that would be necessary to provide adequate, extended defense don't seem to be there and I think that there are some planning officers in the Pentagon who are very concerned with the supply and replacement issues.
This being the case, the need for Europe to step up its supply of medium range systems such as IRIS-T, is all the more crucial for Ukraine. It may be that Germany will be the ultimate replacement for the U.S. and Merz and Pistorius seem to understand the deeper dangers that even a Russian "stalemate" in the war will present to Germany and Europe, at large, in the near future.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/us-stockpiles-missiles/
“I am not saying that there are none available to send to Ukraine, but the numbers that would be necessary to provide adequate, extended defense don't seem to be there and I think that there are some planning officers in the Pentagon who are very concerned with the supply and replacement issues.”
Ok, fair point, but here is another fair point: winning in Ukraine makes the need for Patriots and other weapons less likely to be needed in the Pacific, as a Chinese diplomat just recently alluded to (Russia must win to divert the US from being able to fully engage in the Pacific.
Of course, Western Europe needs to step it even faster and free the US to deter China and let us all win together in all places.
"winning in Ukraine makes the need for Patriots and other weapons less likely to be needed in the Pacific, as a Chinese diplomat just recently alluded to (Russia must win to divert the US from being able to fully engage in the Pacific."
This is exactly the point, Henry. Which is why the advocates for a pivot to China while ignoring Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine were/are so wrong. Russia can't be wished away, as its role is integral to China's goals.
I also read that comment by the Chinese diplomat, and was taken aback by its honesty. But anyone who's been paying attention would have already known that.
The larger, more important point.
China would like nothing better than continued U.S. involvement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict for a variety of reasons but the fact remains that Patriot systems are in short supply (partially due to an anemic production capacity) and will be stretched even further because the U.S. Navy wants to put them aboard its warships. It will have to be Germany's IRIS-T, in quantity, until future improvements provide a substitute for Patriot.
China wants the Russians to win in Ukraine on Russian terms even more.
Yes, the US needs to increase the military industrial base for patriots and other weapons too.
Responsible Statecraft has generally supported the Russian narratives about the war. They are Mearshimer disciples. Just a heads up.
Thanks, didn't know that but there are other articles that tell a similar story.
I kind of agree. But more Patriots will soon be made in Germany than in the US. And if Russia continues to menace Europe, those missiles will stay in Europe instead of being used to deter China.
If my memory serves me correctly there was also "If the Führer only knew" in Nazi Germany. There are ignorant, gullible people everywhere, the low hanging fruit for the tyrants' propagandists.
Edit: See Helga Kuhn's comment.
I weep.
I think it's way past time for Ukrainian missiles, now that their stock of heavy homemade cruise missiles is increasing, and long-range UAVs as well, to pepper Moscow, especially the Kremlin itself. And nothing would upset the Muscovites more than if Ukraine bombards and effectively closes the ring road, stopping Russian road traffic from entering or leaving their work place and their homes.
That would be dramatic, but the real plum, of course, would be aerial attacks on St. Petersburg, Putin's favorite place and the jewel of Russia. Knock out a few bridges over the Nevsky and see what happens. Anything and everything can be justified on military grounds.