Weekend Update #140: The US Cuts Ukraine Off: If Only Comrade Stalin Knew!
Putin Humiliates Trump In Response; Are Advances Set To Get Smaller?
Hello All,
This was the week that the Trump Administration (and that includes Trump himself) did what it always has wanted to do—and not only refuse to provide more aid for Ukraine, but to take back aid that was already allocated and in the process of being delivered. The amazing thing was not that this decision was taken—its that people tried to find a way to say Trump did not know and really did not support this. Its the old, “If Only Comrade Stalin Knew” claim brought to 2025 America.
For those who do not know this phrase, it was supposedly regularly uttered in the 1930s USSR by those who had been arrested and taken to the Gulag, or whose lives were ruined, as they somehow convinced themselves that their misery was not down to the great Stalin—but instead was the work of some of his evil henchmen such as Genrich Yagoda or Nikolai Yezhov. It was nonsense of course—government policy in the USSR was Stalin’s responsibility, but he rather seemed to like these kinds of ideas, and often stayed quiet during the worst moments of Stalinist oppression so that people might think he did not know what was going on. This allowed him to execute both Yagoda and Yezhov when he wanted to pivot away from one set of policies.
That the USA in 2025 has been reduced to such misplaced Stalinist hopes is one of the more depressing aspects of where we are. It seems like some people are so desperate to separate Trump from the excesses of his administration—that they are attacking his underlings and blaming them for decisions that could only be made because Trump is president.
Other than this fascinating/depressing “If Only Comrade Donald Knew” moment, the war itself is developing in a pattern that holds the chance of becoming the story of the summer. The Russians struggling for only tiny advances as the land war becomes increasingly difficult, while the strategic air war between both sides becomes more intense.
Sadly, Comrade Donald is doing his best to aid Russia in its air war against Ukraine.
The US Cuts Ukraine Off: If Only Comrade Stalin Knew!
Some of the US aid, or so I have been told by Ukrainians I trust, was only a few minutes from the Polish-Ukrainian border. It was just about to cross into Ukraine, where it was desperately needed especially for air defense. And then the US swooped in early this week and stopped it in its tracks. Even though this aid for Ukraine had been approved by Congress and President Biden and already allocated and transported to Europe, the Trump administration decided that it was not going to be delivered, but instead would head back to the USA (where it was not needed—more on that below). “Daddy” was swooping in for the kill.
And what important aid it was. Amongst the weapons snatched away from Ukraine at the last moment, were key parts of the Ukrainians layered air defense network “including Patriot missiles, the AIM-7 Sparrow air-to-air missile and shorter-range Stinger missiles”.
Combined these systems have taken a heavy toll on attacking Russian air assets, including the most advanced cruise and ballistic missiles. If you wanted to take away aid and hurt Ukraine the most at this difficult time, this is precisely what you would do. Moreover, this was a decision that has no real strategic rationale for the USA. Internal sources in the Pentagon immediately leaked the fact to NBC news that there was no need for the halt and that “providing continued assistance to Ukraine would not drain U.S. supplies below a required threshold needed to ensure military readiness.”
Yes, the decision started in the Pentagon, and that led some to say that Trump might not have been involved and did not approve. In an extreme act of displacement, lots of anger was directed as Undersecretary State of Defense Elbridge Colby. Look, I’m no fan of Colby, he and I have even feuded on twitter, but blaming Colby is real shooting the messenger stuff Btw, supposedly Trump does not like Colby that much, regardless of the latter’s attempts to ingratiate himself. It was said that Colby was very unimpressive in his interview for a job with Trump after the election, which is why he was was lower down the Pentagon totem pole than he had hoped.
Colby and Defense Secretary Hegseth, who also had to ok the decision, would only have tried this without Trump’s explicit approval if they believe the president would support the decision regardless (and so far they seem to have been right). How do we know this? Well, the Pentagon had a few months earlier, in February, done something similar, and that time had to give way. Trump acolytes would only do it again if they were confident in the president’s response.
Note: We still do not know that Trump did not explicitly ok this decision verbally—perhaps he did.
And this time, the White House came out and instantly supported the decision as well. As was stated in an official communique: “Anna Kelly, a White House spokesperson, also has noted this decision was made to put America’s interests first following a DOD review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries around the globe.”
The most amazing thing about those who tried to separate Trump from this decision is that the president himself has admitted during the course of the week that these systems are vital and Ukraine desperately needs them. His exact quote was:
“They (the Ukrainians) do want to have the antimissile missiles, OK, as they call them, the Patriots…And we’re going to see if we can make some available. We need them, too. We’re supplying them to Israel, and they’re very effective, 100% effective. Hard to believe how effective. They do want that more than any other thing.”
Trump knows exactly what is happening and is doing what he always does when he makes a decision but does not want to take full responsibility—he plays for time but lets the decision bed in. He could as president countermand the order at any time, but he has not. He is throwing out sweet words but taking no concrete steps. Indeed, he seems to actually enjoy tormenting the Ukrainians and showing his power by saying that he is aware how much they want his help—while stringing them on.
The fact that he is talking about future help for Ukraine’s anti-air efforts while refusing to resend aid that was actually at the border is typical. He is aware that Ukraine is under real-pressure in the air, has supported the decision to weaken Ukraine further in this area, and is throwing chaff into the air by talking about helping Ukraine in the future.
If he really wanted to help Ukraine—he would stary by doing two things. The first would be to send the aid that was destined for Ukraine in the first place and the second is to sell Ukraine what it needs now. That he is refusing to do either of these things shows his true intentions.
So yes—Comrade Donald knows. And as long as the policy remains in place, he strongly supports it. I know that many of his favored voices, such as the New York Post and Wall Street Journal, have been pleading with him to change policy—but so far he is not. This is a pretty convincing sign that he does not want to.
Putin Humiliates Trump In Response
What made the decision so perverse is that it was enforced just a few days before Trump and Putin were set to discuss whether the Russians were interested in negotiating a ceasefire in the war. The call duly happened on Thursday, and Putin clearly more emboldened by the fact that the Trump administration was shafting Ukraine (once again) seemed to laugh in the face of the US president. Trump was forced to publicly admit right after the call that “I didn’t make any progress with him (Putin) at all,”.
Its hard to imagine anything greater than the stupidity of saying you want to negotiate a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, and then turning around and weaken Ukraine enormously while emboldening Russia. Its so stupid, one almost has to assume its intentional.
It was soon even worse for Trump. Not only did Putin reject his request for some concrete movements for a ceasefire, the Russian dictator then had his forces launch their largest air attack of the war on Ukrainian cities including Kyiv—the exact kind of attack that the US was encouraging with its arms freeze on Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian military, the attack on Thursday night/Friday morning involved 540 drones and 11 missiles.
These kinds of mass attacks are becoming the norm—and will almost certainly grow as Russian manufacture of UAVs and Missiles continue to grow. As it is, attacks of this size are almost impossible to fully intercept, and in this case a significant number of the attacking Russian systems made it through Ukrainian air defense. The result was a series of fires and craters around the Ukrainian capital.
Trump, naturally, cried his crocodile tears about Putin humiliating him. He claimed on Friday that he was “very disappointed” with Putin’s response—which is a comment dripping with insincerity. His government provided support for the Russian attack by freezing aid to Ukraine, aid he could unfreeze at any time. Not only is Putin humiliating him—Trump is encouraging the humiliation. Stop listening to what he says—only look at what he does.
As Ukrainian air defense weakens, they will only get worse; courtesy of the USA it should always be added.
Are Advances Set To Get Smaller?
The ground advances of Russian forces continue to be painfully small and even seem to be decreasing. A few weeks ago we heard about the great Russian Sumy offensive—well that has not moved forward in more than 3 weeks, the only change being a small Ukrainian advance.
In the larger perspective, the battle line is really not changing in a material way. The Ukrainians still control Pokrovsk (which was pronounced doomed last August) as well as parts of Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and other towns which were said to be strategic targets of the Russians (though really are not strategic).
To put the Russian advances in context, here is the present map around Chasiv Yar (which was supposed to fall to the Russians in May 2024)
You can see how close to Bakhmut (from which the Ukrainians withdrew in March 2023), Chasiv Yar happens to be (11.8 kilometres is 7.3 miles). This has been a major Russian area of operations for more than two years—and this is where we are.
The thing to note is that advances might get even more difficult (I will write a piece on that soon) in the coming months. Logistics are getting pushed further and further back from the front line—so that attacking forces are going to have to struggle even to reach the line of contact.
It points to why the strategic air war is in many ways the dynamic area of the war (and could be decisive). The land war is what it is—and neither side has the ability to drastically change it. If this war is to be won or lost, it will probably be because one side asserts itself in the ranged war. Europe will have to make up for the fact that the US is now serving Russian interests in this area.
Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.
Oppose Trump and MAGA. Speak out against him every chance I get. Having said the above, Europe absolutely has to step up!
Maybe it is too soon to know, but Merz seems to be impressive. Germany needs to help provide more air defense and collaborate with Ukraine in developing European versions of Patriots. France and the UK too!
Why have factories not already been built in Europe? Conscriptions not already started ? It has been 31/2 years!
Unless I'm forgetting something, over the last three years Russia has not captured any Ukrainian city with a pre-2022 population of 80,000 or higher, and has not captured any city with a pre-2022 population of 40,000 or higher over the last two years. Can anyone explain to me in simple words what is it that Russia is doing there? Yes, I've heard of motorcycle charges. Half a league onward. Drone to right of them, drone to left of them, drone in front them... Their's not to reason why, and all that. But as Marshal Bosquet said, "C'est magnifique, mais ce n'est pas la guerre."