The Ukrainians should delicately warn saner people around Trump that if he negotiates a deal with Putin without their participation and then just announces it, he risks embarrassment and even humiliation, as well as looking weak. Since the Ukrainians will have to respectfully decline any deal that does not meet their minimum requirements, especially in terms of security guarantees. Over the past 11 years they have experienced a lot of Putin's attempts to swallow Ukraine piece by piece, stop and go aggression, constant ceasefire violations and finally a full scale invasion. So they just know what won't work. Furthermore, Trump himself will take a huge risk if he forces a bad deal on Ukraine, since in a couple years Putin will restart the war and make Trump look very weak and a dupe, with live TV images of helicopters taking off from the roof of the US embassy in Kyiv.
Ukraine turning down Trump would be much easier if Europe stepped up. My fear is that many European states put pressure on Ukraine to take a crappy (and temporary) cease fire deal so that they can get back to business with Russia.
Yes, I expect that. Sometimes you just have to plunge ahead and hope others follow. I already once used the example of general Miloradovich leading some Russian troops in the Alps. They stopped and hesitated in front of a big ice slide, with the French troops standing near the bottom. So Miloradovich yelled "Watch your general being captured by the French" and jumped down. His soldiers followed. That approach did not always work for him though. A quarter century later he (St. Petersburg General-Governor at the time) was berating the troops brought out by the Decembrists onto the Senate Square during their uprising for going out against the Tsar (most enlisted men had no idea what they were doing and just followed officers' orders). One of the Decembrist leaders shot him.
Really on the Germans and Hungarians would do that. The rest of Europe likely not. But the Germans are the problem within Europe and with some lick this month that will change.
It will, unless it's in a very bad shape. Accepting it will basically rest all hopes of Ukraine's survival on 1) Putin not being ready to restart the war before 2029, and a Democrat 2) winning in 2028 and 3) sending US troops to Eastern Ukraine soon after inauguration. I don't see how Ukraine can repel another invasion if Russia has a few years to rebuild its armed forces and make other preparations.
I certainly would not put much faith in the Democratic Party and even more certainly would not trust them to do something as bold and courageous as sending US troops to face Russia. Trump is a symptom of the political rot in the US, not the cause.
I don't put any faith with them. I was rather making a point that if Ukraine ceases fire now, its ONLY hope of survival will be miraculous boldness of Democrats. Right now the correlation of forces seems to be turning in Ukraine favor, albeit slowly. But after a few years of shaky "peace" it will dramatically change to the point Ukraine will have virtually no hope of repelling a new Russian invasion.
Exactly. While the war is on, Ukrainian men can't leave the country, and Russia can't bring additional ships into the Black Sea, accumulate huge numbers of missiles and drones (for a massive attack completely overwhelming Ukrainian defenses), replenish equipment and ammunition stocks, thoroughly train a large number of troops (let alone create large trained reserves) etc. etc. etc.
I am not sure how deep British support for Ukraine is. It will continue, but unless people come to see Putin as a threat to them I don't see it being ramped up. The unknown is whether this would happen if Ukraine visibly started to collapse and Russia surge forward. It would, of course, make the EU look pathetically weak and irrelevant.
Andrew, well said and if the US media were not so captured and oligarchic itself, they would see Ukraine is already embarrassing Trump with reality on the ground.
Thanks for the link to that article, Andrew. The only thing I'd quibble with is that it was Ivan III who claimed a fake patrimony to southern Rus', in 1480. This may seem minor but the reason the claim was and continues to be outrageous is that Muscovy had been completely cut off from southern Rus' for 243 years during the harsh Mongol occupation. Long before that, most of the Ukrainian lands--as well as the lands of what is now Belarus'--had had their earliest contacts with Poland and Lithuania. All of which explains why there is about a 70% mutual intelligibility between the Polish and Ukrainian languages, which is proof that Russians and Ukrainians are not "brothers." The languages and cultures are much too different.
I often took a commuter train from my suburb into Moscow. And the last station before passing under Beltway (which also served as Moscow city limit) had a name derived from old Russian word for custom duty, since that's where they used to collect custom duties on the border of Muscovy. All Russian territory to the east of that point all the way to the Pacific Ocean was conquered by force. And it is STILL treated as a conquered territory: back around 1980 everybody in Moscow had a phone, while in my administrative districts starting just several miles outside the Beltway the telephonization rate was 2.8% (whenever I missed school due to cold or flu, I had the choice of just three or four classmates to call and ask about homework assignments). Incidentally, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrsky was born in the adjacent district.
While I wouldn't wanna bet on Trump's lifespan, Vance is most certainly worse. Trump has the mentality of a toddler. Vance is capable of implementing a plan, and typically without alienating his own allies while doing so
That's why I find him scarier. BTW I have a common acquaintance with him (Vance once got published, under a penname, in a blog that I was a regular contributor to).
Many thanks for this latest update and particularly, the scandalous messaging coming out of the Trump administration. To be fair to “The Economist”, the rest of the article you quote was more nuanced than the title suggests and in general its reporting is pretty fair. Interestingly, some years ago “The Economist” had a cover showing a photo of Berlusconi (in many ways a precursor of Trump) with the title “unfit to govern Italy” ! How long will it be before it has a cover with a photo of Trump and the title “unfit to govern America”! One lives in hope!
The narrative that attempts to make Zelensky look “illegitimate” is an instance of such monstrous hypocrisy, that it should be called out not only here but in every serious media in the US and elsewhere. I eagerly await such an article in the NYT, the Washington Post or the FT!
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians,
as you point out, are doggedly pursuing their ranged campaign to great effect. And has anyone noticed that the North Korean troops have been “temporarily” withdrawn from the front line in Kursk Oblast ? It seems that everything that could have gone wrong with this deployment has gone wrong and one wonders what heated messages are now being exchanged between Pyongyang and Moscow. The Russians are reduced once again to bombarding sleeping civilians and destroying (with NK missiles) the cultural heritage of Odesa.
And whatever Russian advances are taking place in the Donbas, the overwhelming evidence coming from Ukrainian soldiers deployed there is that there is no question of giving up the fight. Maybe they know something that the media do not !
All that is true Philip. However that headline was ridiculous, and I even had a number of very people contact me asking if Ukraine was about to collapse. So headlines matter.
Ukrainians are going to keep fighting, definitely.
The problem is that Trump has no easy way to force Ukraine into a deal. Biden shipped plenty of weapons at the end, so cutting off supplies won't have any effect for months, and the US is increasingly less important here. Ukraine;s economy is stronger than Russia's and EU money will keep them afloat for a long time without any help from the US.
More importantly, as Trump is now finding out, Putin is the one who can;t settle for the kind of deal Rubio seems to have in mind: ceasefire on existing lines in Ukraine, but no legal recognition of Russian conquests. That's true even with sweeteners like a withdrawal from Kursk and no NATO membership. Trump can't really oppose security guarantees for Ukraine since the deal has to last four years (more if he is thinking about his third term).
From Putin's POV such a deal, relative to 2022, would leave him with a handful of ruined towns in return for catastrophic military and economic losses, including the abandonment of Sevastopol which was the big strategic gain from 2014. He'd be certain to end up falling from a window or having an unexplained heart attack.
The best option for Trump, surprisingly, is to give Ukraine enough support to turn those tiny Russian gains into losses. For Putin that would change the calculus - a terrible now versus a catastrophic one in the futre.
Agree with much of this John. I just cant see Trump giving Ukraine the aid that it would need. If anything, its less aid going forward, and even more restraints on the use of US equipment for ranged strike.
I can't see him doing it either, but the result is he ends up with egg on his face - no enforceable deal and no Russian victory. At this point, ending US military support won't be enough for Putin to win. And, once support is ended, no real reason for Ukraine to pay attention to restraints on the use of what they already have.
Of course California is a blue state and that fire was retribution from God for DEI. If that’s how he approaches a US state, what possible support can he be expected to give Ukraine. He will just spin anything that happens there as a great success to his Red voting audience in the US, the only ones he cares for. He did also just fire everyone involved in the federal investigations against him. Retribution, state take over - this is what we’re seeing in just days. To Trump Ukraine is an inconvenience getting in the way of business with Russia which has always been so profitable for him personally and for those around him. All I am reading lately is how surprised everyone is that he did announce tariffs, and surprised at everything else he has done. Europe and Ukraine cannot afford to be surprised. Must assume and prepare for the worst from the USA. But the Silver lining is that this could be Europe’s finest hour, if we can all wake up and step up with Ukraine to help defeat a weakened Empire.
It's already been abandoned as a naval base, which is what I had in mind. The Black Sea Fleet has moved out of Ukrainian misslle range. And the tourist industry is pretty much dead also.
The bigger elephant in the room is the takeover of the federal bureaucracy by acolytes of Musk, Trump, and Project 2025. The speed with which the government is being Orban-/Erdoğan/etc-ized is pretty darn scary. For example, critical infrastructure like the computer systems of the Treasury and OPM are being subverted, while all non-aligned IGs have been fired. Oversight, even if the legislative wanted to exert it, has been fundamentally hampered.
The acolytes are moving at light-speed because the have internalized that they only have 2 years before the next meaningful set of elections and if they do not succeed likely more oversight thereafter. But if they get their way, the politics in this country are unlikely to recover for decades, just like Turkey or Hungary. In this context, I fear not only for the US but also the rest of the world.
Russia was allowed to survive its attack on Ukraine by the USA and the EU by not imposing sanctions that would have crippled the economy. Energy/gas/oil flowed westward until last year, while machine tools and other supplies flowed eastward. Yes, the EU and the US was helping Ukraine on the one hand but never enough to make a decisive victory possible. Was the aim to nudge Russia to collapse from within, just like the Soviet Union?
I agree with Prof. O'Brien that the die has been cast re: Trump support for a "solution" that he can tout. No doubt, the State department is furiously negotiating something at the moment. The real question is to what extent Europe will go along or if they will step up their support while the US retreats into its isolationist bubble.
The Ukrainians have pretty much demolished the Black Sea fleet and they are now demolishing the Russian ability to refine oil. This will have a bigger impact on the Russian extractive economy than present sanctions on gas/oil exports. If these massive drone strikes keep coming, there may be no reason for the Ukrainians to negotiate peace - the Russians cannot defend their air space and the UKR can just keep sending the hurt.
First, to destroy refineries and other sources of export cash. But they could also target switch yards that control the flow of power throughout Russia. But all this relies on two important factors - good information / intel, and some degree of secrecy. And that is where the UKR may be cooked with the US administration joining the Russian team.
The US has been an absolutely vital ally re: sharing intel with the Ukrainians in real time re: troop movements, massing, targets. Without the continued support of information flowing to the Ukrainians, it will be far more difficult to conduct successful strikes with what little stocks the UKR army has. There is also the obvious issue of artillery shells, Himars rockets, etc. to replenish extant stocks.
But given the current administration, it also entirely likely that the locations of presently-secret manufacturing plants, air bases, stockpiles, etc. in UKR will be disclosed to Russia as part of "negotiations". So even if the EU steps up its support of the UKR, the US can exert ridiculous pressure on UKR to make a peace treaty on unhappy terms simply by giving the Russians targeting info, relieving sanctions, etc. *
The Russians are literally inches away from militarily / economically collapsing and yet we now have a administration in place that will support them UNLESS the Russians commit the cardinal sin of not properly adulating Trump when the time comes for a "peace" treaty. And this is our only glimmer of hope, i.e. the presently-small crack between the egos / goals for Putin/Trump. If Putin ignores Trumps peace plan or worse makes fun of him, then perhaps we may see more quiet support of the UKR by the Trump administration.
*(and that seems tenuous given that the CDU will likely have to rely on the support of the AfD to form the next German government, Le Pens continued rise in France, Farage not being carried out of town on a rail, tarred and feathered, etc.)
I think the most shocking change is the conversion of the FBI into an actual sort of Stasi.
I can't believe I am saying this. It's not alarmism, it's happening. Jim Jordan's staff and other zealots have reportedly set up shop in FBI headquarters. Kash Patel is nuts and brutal.
The republicans nurtured paranoid fantasies about the past FBI director & staff (who in reality were broadly very conservative. They pampered and shielded Trump to the limits of their ability.) Now Republicans use false accusations to build an actual instrument of political oppression. Propaganda really, really works. Republicans - including the well informed ones - now sincerely believe that the past FBI was a deep state liberal tool.
The FBI agents with balance and integrity are being fired. We're in a dictatorship.
Agree Constantin, Trump and Musk have crossed the Rubicon. It's pretty scary what the impact will be of one weekend of data mining in the US government. It's unheard of, social media profiles will be connected with social, financial, medical and political information from the government, quickly analysed by AI. And all this knowledge will be in private hands. Trump and Musk are forming a Thought Police, and it's happening right here and now. This will result in chaos for the USA, and Trump thrives in chaos. In this world of Trump and Musk, Ukraine war is a bystander, the main focus will indeed be a US isolationist bubble. This also means for Ukraine that probably nothing gets decided in 2025 and the war of attrition will continue.
Maya Angelou famously said "when someone shows you who they are, believe them..." Trump showed us who he was when he tried to extort Zylenski during his first term along with his constant demonstrations of love for Putin. The point Ukraine is at now is really what has been inevitable since Biden decided to run for reelection with the aid and consent of the Democratic Party establishment. That disaster enabled Trump's electoral win and now the world has to adapt. With Europe's active assistance, I believe Ukraine can still fight Russia and win, but will Europe step up? Will Trump start pressuring Europe to abandon Ukraine as an assist to Putin? These are, I think, the relevant questions now.
Mr. Rubio pulls out that hoary old trick of throwing up a bs world salad containing supposedly Ukrainian war goals (goals that Ukraine never actually articulated) that were put forward by dishonest "people" (which people are those? You, I guess, among others) to fool the American people to giving over their decommissioned war equipment and replacing it with new equipment from US based defence companies. So those "people" (i.e. you) are not simply wrong, but dishonest, possibly evil. So much for any initial hopes for Mr. Rubio.
I am particularly furious about the demand/expectation that Ukraine should hold elections following any ‘ceasefire’ and the ‘ceasefire’ should be consequent upon holding those elections, as it is such a transparent ploy. People are beginning to repeat the mantra because of course, who could object to democratic elections? I’ve had a bit of a to and fro with Kevin Rothrock, the American based Managing Editor of Meduza in English (Mastodon) because he started to run this emerging line that other countries have had elections while at war, including the UK. Except our elections followed the unconditional surrender of Germany and we hadn’t in the end been subject to invasion and partial occupation. Nor did we have to face the massive external interference that would almost certainly ensue in Ukraine.
It is an argument purely designed to undermine Zelensky and has to be resisted until Ukraine is in a fit state to hold the free and fair elections it deserves
There's more to it. Holding an election will constitutionally require ending martial law. And that in turn means that all Ukrainian men who don't want to be mobilized in the near future will be free to leave the country. So Putin will just announce that if Let's Join Russia Party does not win, he'll restart the war the day after the election. Lots of men will flee immediately.
"This is exactly what Putin has called for; bilateral US-Russian talks (great powers and all that) in which the two work out a deal that is forced on Ukraine. Putin desperately wants Ukraine to be relegated to a bystander in its own future—and right now Trump seems to be saying that it is."
One doesn't have to be a genius to see it coming. Even middle brows and unibrows could see for years that Trump & Putin would cut a deal. They are fellow sharks divvying up the feeding grounds.
How does Europe view Trump's idiotic 25% tariffs against its close partners? How will Europe react to Trump's cynical backroom dealing with Putin? Europe is getting hit over the head with a sledge hammer; is it enough for them to accept that America is now a frenemy?
I am confident that Ukraine will fight on irregardless of any "dictat" from Trump. I have read reports (hopefully accurate) that Ukraine has been hoarding supplies sufficient to continue fighting for the next year. Trump will have his "tiny hands" full for the foreseeable future with his trade wars and domestic upheavals. He will soon tire of dealing with the Ukraine question , especially when it becomes clear that his grandiose pronouncements are falling on deaf ears in Kviv. As long as the Nordic and Baltic countries, together with Poland and the UK, stand firm, then Ukraine stands a chance of outlasting the Putin regime, even if they have to grudging give ground. Trump and his minions bracing up Putin's Russia as a world power does not make it so in today's reality. They are barely a regional power, as we speak, and by the end of this year will be a husk of what they once were. We, in the West, need to "keep the faith" with Ukraine.
Trump/the Trump Admin negotiating a deal without all the interested parties is par for the course. See his Afghanistan negotiations only with the Taliban.
Is there scope for Zelensky to call Trump's bluff?
Announce that he'll be delighted to hold elections - so long as the US provides physical security for the polling stations in Pokrovske and election monitors to ensure that those Ukrainian citizens in Bakhmut, Donetsk, etc. are free and fair? Or, if the US thinks it's too risky to deploy personnel to these places, they'll postpone the election until the war is won.
The most important news I've heard is mere rumor, but the rumor is that Kim Jong Un is displeased with seeing his troops slaughtered in "meat assaults", and will not be sending any more North Korean troops no matter what Putin offers.
Next question is at what point he decides he's not being paid enough to be worth his time, and stops sending materiel. North Korea is the last lifeline Putin's army has.
I'm not sure how much strategic bombing it takes before Russia's logistics becomes impossible, but it is being destroyed. I don't think even Trump can bail Russia out at this point. This is Russian collapse.
Transnistria effectively folded and gave in to Moldova this week. The Baltics disconnect from the Russian power grid in a week or two. That eliminates any motivations Ukraine had to keep the electricity or gas working in Russia. Ukraine has already been destroying infrastructure for Russian NG exports via the Baltic and via the Black Sea, quite successfully.
Trump can hurt Ukraine, just as he has hurt the US and will continue to hurt the US, but he can't save Russia. He can only destroy.
That’s a really good point - attacking the Russian electrical grid was a no go as long as EU partners relied on it. I wondered why the UKR refrained from blowing up substations and other hard-to-replace gear considering how well they presumably knew the Russian grid infrastructure.
That may also explain the Russian undersea sabotage in the Baltic, ie cutting the electrical cables to prevent the adjacent electrical grids from supporting Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Which in turn makes them reliant on Russian exports.
Trump would love to see Russia take Ukraine back. NONE of the people who work for him, like Marco Rubio, are going to fight him. The Republicans are gutless and spineless. We have to keep speaking up.
After reviewing six dimensions of Putin's war, this article by Hans Petter Midttun (https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/01/09/i-am-confident-russia-will-lose-this-year-heres-why/) made the point that he might be winning in just one, i.e. cognitive space. But it may be enough for him to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, simply by persuading us to stop our support to the supposedly losing side: "Russia is heading for a strategic defeat unless it succeeds in the Western cognitive space, injecting the false narrative that Ukraine is losing. Russia’s present offensive might be a last desperate push to strengthen the notion."
The Ukrainians should delicately warn saner people around Trump that if he negotiates a deal with Putin without their participation and then just announces it, he risks embarrassment and even humiliation, as well as looking weak. Since the Ukrainians will have to respectfully decline any deal that does not meet their minimum requirements, especially in terms of security guarantees. Over the past 11 years they have experienced a lot of Putin's attempts to swallow Ukraine piece by piece, stop and go aggression, constant ceasefire violations and finally a full scale invasion. So they just know what won't work. Furthermore, Trump himself will take a huge risk if he forces a bad deal on Ukraine, since in a couple years Putin will restart the war and make Trump look very weak and a dupe, with live TV images of helicopters taking off from the roof of the US embassy in Kyiv.
And if that still does not stop Trump from announcing that he agreed with Putin on the terms of Ukrainian surrender, Ukraine should just keep on fighting. This is the least bad option. Here's a good explanation of the war from a few days ago: https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5109282-the-real-reason-russia-invaded-ukraine/
Ukraine turning down Trump would be much easier if Europe stepped up. My fear is that many European states put pressure on Ukraine to take a crappy (and temporary) cease fire deal so that they can get back to business with Russia.
Thanks for that link Andrew!
They sure will. But Ukrainians are under no obligation to give up their nationhood for convenience of some European businesses.
entirely agree--and some CEE states might actually step up more in such a case. Could lead to a profound division in Europe
Yes, I expect that. Sometimes you just have to plunge ahead and hope others follow. I already once used the example of general Miloradovich leading some Russian troops in the Alps. They stopped and hesitated in front of a big ice slide, with the French troops standing near the bottom. So Miloradovich yelled "Watch your general being captured by the French" and jumped down. His soldiers followed. That approach did not always work for him though. A quarter century later he (St. Petersburg General-Governor at the time) was berating the troops brought out by the Decembrists onto the Senate Square during their uprising for going out against the Tsar (most enlisted men had no idea what they were doing and just followed officers' orders). One of the Decembrist leaders shot him.
One could hope that the speed with which Trump is pissing off alies will focus minds ...
one hopes
Really on the Germans and Hungarians would do that. The rest of Europe likely not. But the Germans are the problem within Europe and with some lick this month that will change.
I certainly do hope that Ukraine turns down a Trump deal.
lots of moving parts at play that will determine this Kathleen.
It will, unless it's in a very bad shape. Accepting it will basically rest all hopes of Ukraine's survival on 1) Putin not being ready to restart the war before 2029, and a Democrat 2) winning in 2028 and 3) sending US troops to Eastern Ukraine soon after inauguration. I don't see how Ukraine can repel another invasion if Russia has a few years to rebuild its armed forces and make other preparations.
I certainly would not put much faith in the Democratic Party and even more certainly would not trust them to do something as bold and courageous as sending US troops to face Russia. Trump is a symptom of the political rot in the US, not the cause.
I don't put any faith with them. I was rather making a point that if Ukraine ceases fire now, its ONLY hope of survival will be miraculous boldness of Democrats. Right now the correlation of forces seems to be turning in Ukraine favor, albeit slowly. But after a few years of shaky "peace" it will dramatically change to the point Ukraine will have virtually no hope of repelling a new Russian invasion.
It would be miraculous, I agree.
The important thing is to keep that from happening. That is why continuing to fight is the least bad option.
Exactly. While the war is on, Ukrainian men can't leave the country, and Russia can't bring additional ships into the Black Sea, accumulate huge numbers of missiles and drones (for a massive attack completely overwhelming Ukrainian defenses), replenish equipment and ammunition stocks, thoroughly train a large number of troops (let alone create large trained reserves) etc. etc. etc.
Or Europe initiating a robust supporting effort?
If they accept Trump's "deal", no supporting effort will save Ukraine.
"Trump himself will take a huge risk if he forces a bad deal on Ukraine"
Not really. Most Americans don't care about Europe and certainly don't accept blame.
The Republican/State media machine will spin a story of Ukrainian stubborn self-destruction.
Europe is on their own, stop waiting for Trump.
I am not sure how deep British support for Ukraine is. It will continue, but unless people come to see Putin as a threat to them I don't see it being ramped up. The unknown is whether this would happen if Ukraine visibly started to collapse and Russia surge forward. It would, of course, make the EU look pathetically weak and irrelevant.
Well, that's the best argument Ukrainians can make. It's worth making it before telling Trump where to shove his deal.
Andrew, well said and if the US media were not so captured and oligarchic itself, they would see Ukraine is already embarrassing Trump with reality on the ground.
Thanks for the link to that article, Andrew. The only thing I'd quibble with is that it was Ivan III who claimed a fake patrimony to southern Rus', in 1480. This may seem minor but the reason the claim was and continues to be outrageous is that Muscovy had been completely cut off from southern Rus' for 243 years during the harsh Mongol occupation. Long before that, most of the Ukrainian lands--as well as the lands of what is now Belarus'--had had their earliest contacts with Poland and Lithuania. All of which explains why there is about a 70% mutual intelligibility between the Polish and Ukrainian languages, which is proof that Russians and Ukrainians are not "brothers." The languages and cultures are much too different.
I often took a commuter train from my suburb into Moscow. And the last station before passing under Beltway (which also served as Moscow city limit) had a name derived from old Russian word for custom duty, since that's where they used to collect custom duties on the border of Muscovy. All Russian territory to the east of that point all the way to the Pacific Ocean was conquered by force. And it is STILL treated as a conquered territory: back around 1980 everybody in Moscow had a phone, while in my administrative districts starting just several miles outside the Beltway the telephonization rate was 2.8% (whenever I missed school due to cold or flu, I had the choice of just three or four classmates to call and ask about homework assignments). Incidentally, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrsky was born in the adjacent district.
Trump might well be dead by then.
Unlikely. And Vance is even worse.
While I wouldn't wanna bet on Trump's lifespan, Vance is most certainly worse. Trump has the mentality of a toddler. Vance is capable of implementing a plan, and typically without alienating his own allies while doing so
That's why I find him scarier. BTW I have a common acquaintance with him (Vance once got published, under a penname, in a blog that I was a regular contributor to).
Great link. Thanks Andrew. Excellent description of Muscovite larceny.
Thanks for the link. Andrew. Good piece
Many thanks for this latest update and particularly, the scandalous messaging coming out of the Trump administration. To be fair to “The Economist”, the rest of the article you quote was more nuanced than the title suggests and in general its reporting is pretty fair. Interestingly, some years ago “The Economist” had a cover showing a photo of Berlusconi (in many ways a precursor of Trump) with the title “unfit to govern Italy” ! How long will it be before it has a cover with a photo of Trump and the title “unfit to govern America”! One lives in hope!
The narrative that attempts to make Zelensky look “illegitimate” is an instance of such monstrous hypocrisy, that it should be called out not only here but in every serious media in the US and elsewhere. I eagerly await such an article in the NYT, the Washington Post or the FT!
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians,
as you point out, are doggedly pursuing their ranged campaign to great effect. And has anyone noticed that the North Korean troops have been “temporarily” withdrawn from the front line in Kursk Oblast ? It seems that everything that could have gone wrong with this deployment has gone wrong and one wonders what heated messages are now being exchanged between Pyongyang and Moscow. The Russians are reduced once again to bombarding sleeping civilians and destroying (with NK missiles) the cultural heritage of Odesa.
And whatever Russian advances are taking place in the Donbas, the overwhelming evidence coming from Ukrainian soldiers deployed there is that there is no question of giving up the fight. Maybe they know something that the media do not !
All that is true Philip. However that headline was ridiculous, and I even had a number of very people contact me asking if Ukraine was about to collapse. So headlines matter.
Ukrainians are going to keep fighting, definitely.
The problem is that Trump has no easy way to force Ukraine into a deal. Biden shipped plenty of weapons at the end, so cutting off supplies won't have any effect for months, and the US is increasingly less important here. Ukraine;s economy is stronger than Russia's and EU money will keep them afloat for a long time without any help from the US.
More importantly, as Trump is now finding out, Putin is the one who can;t settle for the kind of deal Rubio seems to have in mind: ceasefire on existing lines in Ukraine, but no legal recognition of Russian conquests. That's true even with sweeteners like a withdrawal from Kursk and no NATO membership. Trump can't really oppose security guarantees for Ukraine since the deal has to last four years (more if he is thinking about his third term).
From Putin's POV such a deal, relative to 2022, would leave him with a handful of ruined towns in return for catastrophic military and economic losses, including the abandonment of Sevastopol which was the big strategic gain from 2014. He'd be certain to end up falling from a window or having an unexplained heart attack.
The best option for Trump, surprisingly, is to give Ukraine enough support to turn those tiny Russian gains into losses. For Putin that would change the calculus - a terrible now versus a catastrophic one in the futre.
Agree with much of this John. I just cant see Trump giving Ukraine the aid that it would need. If anything, its less aid going forward, and even more restraints on the use of US equipment for ranged strike.
I can't see him doing it either, but the result is he ends up with egg on his face - no enforceable deal and no Russian victory. At this point, ending US military support won't be enough for Putin to win. And, once support is ended, no real reason for Ukraine to pay attention to restraints on the use of what they already have.
Trump is the guy who just did this at home: https://www.jefftiedrich.com/p/incompetent-imbecile-sabotages-californias
Of course California is a blue state and that fire was retribution from God for DEI. If that’s how he approaches a US state, what possible support can he be expected to give Ukraine. He will just spin anything that happens there as a great success to his Red voting audience in the US, the only ones he cares for. He did also just fire everyone involved in the federal investigations against him. Retribution, state take over - this is what we’re seeing in just days. To Trump Ukraine is an inconvenience getting in the way of business with Russia which has always been so profitable for him personally and for those around him. All I am reading lately is how surprised everyone is that he did announce tariffs, and surprised at everything else he has done. Europe and Ukraine cannot afford to be surprised. Must assume and prepare for the worst from the USA. But the Silver lining is that this could be Europe’s finest hour, if we can all wake up and step up with Ukraine to help defeat a weakened Empire.
Why abandonment of Sevastopol ?
I think he means the Russian fleet has been forced out of there.
It's already been abandoned as a naval base, which is what I had in mind. The Black Sea Fleet has moved out of Ukrainian misslle range. And the tourist industry is pretty much dead also.
But given a ceasefire on existing lines, that would all change surely ?
I wish that Roosevelt, Churchill, and Marshall would rise out of their graves and march this bunch straight down to hell.
Typos: cant possible > can't possibly
for another weak > week
I would take that any day of the week. Sadly, not going to happen. We have this deficient lot.
The bigger elephant in the room is the takeover of the federal bureaucracy by acolytes of Musk, Trump, and Project 2025. The speed with which the government is being Orban-/Erdoğan/etc-ized is pretty darn scary. For example, critical infrastructure like the computer systems of the Treasury and OPM are being subverted, while all non-aligned IGs have been fired. Oversight, even if the legislative wanted to exert it, has been fundamentally hampered.
The acolytes are moving at light-speed because the have internalized that they only have 2 years before the next meaningful set of elections and if they do not succeed likely more oversight thereafter. But if they get their way, the politics in this country are unlikely to recover for decades, just like Turkey or Hungary. In this context, I fear not only for the US but also the rest of the world.
Russia was allowed to survive its attack on Ukraine by the USA and the EU by not imposing sanctions that would have crippled the economy. Energy/gas/oil flowed westward until last year, while machine tools and other supplies flowed eastward. Yes, the EU and the US was helping Ukraine on the one hand but never enough to make a decisive victory possible. Was the aim to nudge Russia to collapse from within, just like the Soviet Union?
I agree with Prof. O'Brien that the die has been cast re: Trump support for a "solution" that he can tout. No doubt, the State department is furiously negotiating something at the moment. The real question is to what extent Europe will go along or if they will step up their support while the US retreats into its isolationist bubble.
The Ukrainians have pretty much demolished the Black Sea fleet and they are now demolishing the Russian ability to refine oil. This will have a bigger impact on the Russian extractive economy than present sanctions on gas/oil exports. If these massive drone strikes keep coming, there may be no reason for the Ukrainians to negotiate peace - the Russians cannot defend their air space and the UKR can just keep sending the hurt.
First, to destroy refineries and other sources of export cash. But they could also target switch yards that control the flow of power throughout Russia. But all this relies on two important factors - good information / intel, and some degree of secrecy. And that is where the UKR may be cooked with the US administration joining the Russian team.
The US has been an absolutely vital ally re: sharing intel with the Ukrainians in real time re: troop movements, massing, targets. Without the continued support of information flowing to the Ukrainians, it will be far more difficult to conduct successful strikes with what little stocks the UKR army has. There is also the obvious issue of artillery shells, Himars rockets, etc. to replenish extant stocks.
But given the current administration, it also entirely likely that the locations of presently-secret manufacturing plants, air bases, stockpiles, etc. in UKR will be disclosed to Russia as part of "negotiations". So even if the EU steps up its support of the UKR, the US can exert ridiculous pressure on UKR to make a peace treaty on unhappy terms simply by giving the Russians targeting info, relieving sanctions, etc. *
The Russians are literally inches away from militarily / economically collapsing and yet we now have a administration in place that will support them UNLESS the Russians commit the cardinal sin of not properly adulating Trump when the time comes for a "peace" treaty. And this is our only glimmer of hope, i.e. the presently-small crack between the egos / goals for Putin/Trump. If Putin ignores Trumps peace plan or worse makes fun of him, then perhaps we may see more quiet support of the UKR by the Trump administration.
*(and that seems tenuous given that the CDU will likely have to rely on the support of the AfD to form the next German government, Le Pens continued rise in France, Farage not being carried out of town on a rail, tarred and feathered, etc.)
I think the most shocking change is the conversion of the FBI into an actual sort of Stasi.
I can't believe I am saying this. It's not alarmism, it's happening. Jim Jordan's staff and other zealots have reportedly set up shop in FBI headquarters. Kash Patel is nuts and brutal.
The republicans nurtured paranoid fantasies about the past FBI director & staff (who in reality were broadly very conservative. They pampered and shielded Trump to the limits of their ability.) Now Republicans use false accusations to build an actual instrument of political oppression. Propaganda really, really works. Republicans - including the well informed ones - now sincerely believe that the past FBI was a deep state liberal tool.
The FBI agents with balance and integrity are being fired. We're in a dictatorship.
Agree Constantin, Trump and Musk have crossed the Rubicon. It's pretty scary what the impact will be of one weekend of data mining in the US government. It's unheard of, social media profiles will be connected with social, financial, medical and political information from the government, quickly analysed by AI. And all this knowledge will be in private hands. Trump and Musk are forming a Thought Police, and it's happening right here and now. This will result in chaos for the USA, and Trump thrives in chaos. In this world of Trump and Musk, Ukraine war is a bystander, the main focus will indeed be a US isolationist bubble. This also means for Ukraine that probably nothing gets decided in 2025 and the war of attrition will continue.
> That war would have not started if I was president.
So what does he or anyone else suggest might have happened ? Arming Ukraine adequately?
And how would that square with Trump's present likely appeasement plan (letting Russia keep what it has stolen) ?
> Trump has never questioned Putin’s electoral mandate or called for another free Russian election.
"Another" one ??
Its all BS Punksta, he just loves to convince himself of fantasies in which he is great.
Maya Angelou famously said "when someone shows you who they are, believe them..." Trump showed us who he was when he tried to extort Zylenski during his first term along with his constant demonstrations of love for Putin. The point Ukraine is at now is really what has been inevitable since Biden decided to run for reelection with the aid and consent of the Democratic Party establishment. That disaster enabled Trump's electoral win and now the world has to adapt. With Europe's active assistance, I believe Ukraine can still fight Russia and win, but will Europe step up? Will Trump start pressuring Europe to abandon Ukraine as an assist to Putin? These are, I think, the relevant questions now.
Mr. Rubio pulls out that hoary old trick of throwing up a bs world salad containing supposedly Ukrainian war goals (goals that Ukraine never actually articulated) that were put forward by dishonest "people" (which people are those? You, I guess, among others) to fool the American people to giving over their decommissioned war equipment and replacing it with new equipment from US based defence companies. So those "people" (i.e. you) are not simply wrong, but dishonest, possibly evil. So much for any initial hopes for Mr. Rubio.
I am particularly furious about the demand/expectation that Ukraine should hold elections following any ‘ceasefire’ and the ‘ceasefire’ should be consequent upon holding those elections, as it is such a transparent ploy. People are beginning to repeat the mantra because of course, who could object to democratic elections? I’ve had a bit of a to and fro with Kevin Rothrock, the American based Managing Editor of Meduza in English (Mastodon) because he started to run this emerging line that other countries have had elections while at war, including the UK. Except our elections followed the unconditional surrender of Germany and we hadn’t in the end been subject to invasion and partial occupation. Nor did we have to face the massive external interference that would almost certainly ensue in Ukraine.
It is an argument purely designed to undermine Zelensky and has to be resisted until Ukraine is in a fit state to hold the free and fair elections it deserves
There's more to it. Holding an election will constitutionally require ending martial law. And that in turn means that all Ukrainian men who don't want to be mobilized in the near future will be free to leave the country. So Putin will just announce that if Let's Join Russia Party does not win, he'll restart the war the day after the election. Lots of men will flee immediately.
The UK absolutely did not have elections during WWI or WWII -- quite famously cancelled elections.
The US had elections in the middle of the US Civil War, but we were really unusual that way. It was a mess, of course.
I am wondering-what are the countries that held elections while being invaded that Kevin Rothrock claims? He sounds like a cementhead.
"This is exactly what Putin has called for; bilateral US-Russian talks (great powers and all that) in which the two work out a deal that is forced on Ukraine. Putin desperately wants Ukraine to be relegated to a bystander in its own future—and right now Trump seems to be saying that it is."
One doesn't have to be a genius to see it coming. Even middle brows and unibrows could see for years that Trump & Putin would cut a deal. They are fellow sharks divvying up the feeding grounds.
How does Europe view Trump's idiotic 25% tariffs against its close partners? How will Europe react to Trump's cynical backroom dealing with Putin? Europe is getting hit over the head with a sledge hammer; is it enough for them to accept that America is now a frenemy?
Frenemy? I’d drop the ‘fr’
I am confident that Ukraine will fight on irregardless of any "dictat" from Trump. I have read reports (hopefully accurate) that Ukraine has been hoarding supplies sufficient to continue fighting for the next year. Trump will have his "tiny hands" full for the foreseeable future with his trade wars and domestic upheavals. He will soon tire of dealing with the Ukraine question , especially when it becomes clear that his grandiose pronouncements are falling on deaf ears in Kviv. As long as the Nordic and Baltic countries, together with Poland and the UK, stand firm, then Ukraine stands a chance of outlasting the Putin regime, even if they have to grudging give ground. Trump and his minions bracing up Putin's Russia as a world power does not make it so in today's reality. They are barely a regional power, as we speak, and by the end of this year will be a husk of what they once were. We, in the West, need to "keep the faith" with Ukraine.
Trump/the Trump Admin negotiating a deal without all the interested parties is par for the course. See his Afghanistan negotiations only with the Taliban.
Is there scope for Zelensky to call Trump's bluff?
Announce that he'll be delighted to hold elections - so long as the US provides physical security for the polling stations in Pokrovske and election monitors to ensure that those Ukrainian citizens in Bakhmut, Donetsk, etc. are free and fair? Or, if the US thinks it's too risky to deploy personnel to these places, they'll postpone the election until the war is won.
The most important news I've heard is mere rumor, but the rumor is that Kim Jong Un is displeased with seeing his troops slaughtered in "meat assaults", and will not be sending any more North Korean troops no matter what Putin offers.
Next question is at what point he decides he's not being paid enough to be worth his time, and stops sending materiel. North Korea is the last lifeline Putin's army has.
I'm not sure how much strategic bombing it takes before Russia's logistics becomes impossible, but it is being destroyed. I don't think even Trump can bail Russia out at this point. This is Russian collapse.
Transnistria effectively folded and gave in to Moldova this week. The Baltics disconnect from the Russian power grid in a week or two. That eliminates any motivations Ukraine had to keep the electricity or gas working in Russia. Ukraine has already been destroying infrastructure for Russian NG exports via the Baltic and via the Black Sea, quite successfully.
Trump can hurt Ukraine, just as he has hurt the US and will continue to hurt the US, but he can't save Russia. He can only destroy.
That’s a really good point - attacking the Russian electrical grid was a no go as long as EU partners relied on it. I wondered why the UKR refrained from blowing up substations and other hard-to-replace gear considering how well they presumably knew the Russian grid infrastructure.
That may also explain the Russian undersea sabotage in the Baltic, ie cutting the electrical cables to prevent the adjacent electrical grids from supporting Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Which in turn makes them reliant on Russian exports.
Thank you.
Trump would love to see Russia take Ukraine back. NONE of the people who work for him, like Marco Rubio, are going to fight him. The Republicans are gutless and spineless. We have to keep speaking up.
Another very illuminating post, thanks a lot!
After reviewing six dimensions of Putin's war, this article by Hans Petter Midttun (https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/01/09/i-am-confident-russia-will-lose-this-year-heres-why/) made the point that he might be winning in just one, i.e. cognitive space. But it may be enough for him to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, simply by persuading us to stop our support to the supposedly losing side: "Russia is heading for a strategic defeat unless it succeeds in the Western cognitive space, injecting the false narrative that Ukraine is losing. Russia’s present offensive might be a last desperate push to strengthen the notion."