First of all, Ukraine should obviously appear eager to go along with whatever Trump proposes and try to make Putin take the blame for the war not stopping. The latter may not be very hard since he won't agree to leave Sudzha under Ukrainian occupation for years. Putin may not even want to pause the war, period, because he's ideologically committed to ending Ukrainian nationhood, delusional about Russian speaking Ukrainians (supposedly yearning to be under his rule) and really angry at Ukraine for defying him. He also believes he can outlast the West and perhaps even that Trump will be willing to offer more concessions. Putin is probably misinformed by his entourage about both the Russian economy and the war progress, and he's likely ignorant about strategy to the point where he thinks he's winning because the lines on the map move in the desired direction.
But if it all fails and Trump basically gives Ukraine an ultimatum, I believe that Ukraine should then announce that it 1) will not stop fighting until all Russian forces either withdraw from all internationally recognized Ukrainian territory or at least announce a withdrawal on a short timeline, and 2) will not sign ANY agreements with Russia (including gas transit) before gaining full membership in the EU and NATO. I would suggest October 28 for such a statement - aka Ohi Day in Greece.
I think that is right Andrew. Ukraine needs to seem cooperative with Trump (and is doing that well now). If Trump feels slighted he might even make the US a Russian ally.
However, in the end, Ukraine needs to decide on its own interests (as do European states). They cant let themselves believe that Trump cares about these interests at all--because he doesnt.
I'm hopeful that Trump is more likely to feel slighted by Putin not accepting a deal (and depriving him of a political achievement as a peace maker) than by anything Zelensky says. I think Zelensky is more skilled personally than Putin who has made a number of misjudgements of foreign leaders and is still blinded by his desire to create the USSR Mk 2.
I'm not as hopeful. Putin is an authoritarian strongman and Putin loves those, and Trump also blames Zelenski already for assisting the Biden administration so he's predisposed to distrust him.
Ukraine has a very skilled foreign correspondence team and Zelenski is charismatic and good at getting others on his side, so all hope isn't lost. It's just that everyone in Trump's inner circle hates Ukraine so Trump is more likely to dismiss everything Zelenski says out of hand while hanging on to what Putin says.
Hmm. I don't fully agree. I suspect that most of Trump's enterage are not heavily invested in the Ukraine/Russian conflict in the way they are about other issues - anti-immigrant, anti-DEI, anti-perceived left wing ideas, anti -Trans for example. I can't help thinking that their original skepticism of Ukraine more reflected an opposition to Biden's support for them (pity it wasn't stronger and more long lasting). I think Trump's tweets have shown that he doesn't feel a feared for attachment to Putin and would happily sacrifice him if he thought it was to his (Trump's) advantage.
I think European states will get behind Ukraine (out of their own interests) if Ukraine eventually responds to Putin's demands in Greek: 'ohi' and 'molon labe' (that's all the Greek you really need to know to do diplomacy with aggressors, although the Spartan response of "If" to King Philip may also come in handy sometimes).
I expect Ukraine to physically destroy the gas terminals connecting to Russia, making it practically impossible to resume gas transit, therefore making it impossible for Western Europeans to demand that any more.
Oh, it's clear Ukraine's alrady bombing compressor stations in Russia leading to Turkstream. Ukraine's saying "Go ahead, ship Russian gas via Turkiye, go for it" but they're blowing up the Russian-side assets which lead to Turkstream at the same time.
I would expect the stations in Russia leading to Nordstream to be bombed well before anyone suggests reactivating Nordstream. I would expect the ones leading through Ukraine to be bombed even earlier (I am not sure anyone is paying attention to them right now)
Trump seems to be able to shape-shift (in people's imaginations) partly because of the sheer volume of outrageous ramblings he puts out. It is hard to remember it all and unhealthy to try.
A few months after the 2022 invasion Trump predicted Russia would conquer all of UKR. He said it in a triumphal way, at best emphasizing that he was smarter than the experts, at worst because he found a Russian conquest desirable.
Last fall he declared Ukraine destroyed, gone. Again, his tone was not sorrowful, more like boasting. The declaration from the art-of-the-deal great negotiator hurt UKR's bargaining position in future negotiations.
Why are intelligent ppl still able to rest hopes in Trump as a peace maker? He has less than zero interests in UKR's future. He's not even a neutral arbiter. The American public will forget a betrayal of UKR as quickly as Afghanistan receded from public consciousness. The Republicans can and will blame failures on Biden and it won't matter. Trump has room to be Trump.
I am skeptical that Europe will wake up in 2025. As long as there is any excuse to postpone pain the excuse will be exercised. But I agree with the logic that they will come around.
Agree on all of your points. With Trump it’s all theatre. My only hope is that Ukraine can slowly turn the tide perhaps with more European aid so that Trump sees no immanent win for Russia and decides to stick with his original instinct of backing the winner. It’s a long shot but hope springs eternal.
I don't think your wish is a long shot. In fact it is the most likely outcome as I see it. Which is to say about 20% likely with many other seen and unseen possibilities.
Many thanks for this realistic update. What you say about Trump is increasingly visible in his statements, to wit : " he wants to gain credit for stopping the fighting, declare he is a peace-maker and go home". If he can put pressure in Putin to come to the negotiating table, that will be something positive and if Putin insists , as he will, on keeping the land he has conquered so far, what about the part of Russia that Ukraine has conquered and is still holding on to ? Such complications may be beyond Trump, but not beyond his advisors one hopes, nor of course beyond Ukraine that will, if negotiations do actually start, rightly insist on gaining something in return for withdrawing from Kursk. And if Putin refuses to negotiate, then the Ukrainians will simply go on fighting and Trump will look stupid, not something he will take lightly.
As for the Europeans, they must be given more time. Some leaders, as you reported from Davos, still seem to think that Putin will be happy to bank what he has conquered, sell this to his people as a great victory and agree to a cease fire. But the closer countries are to Russia, the more clairvoyant they now are about Putin's real motives.
And there can be no doubt that while the world's media is focused on Trump's every tweet and whether Elon Musk gave a Nazi salute, some serious discussions are going on behind closed doors among some Europeans about their ongoing support for Ukraine and their possible future role in any moves towards securing peace. Pistorius and Cornu (said to be very close to Macron) met this week in Paris to focus on such matters. Although Germany has yet to get a new government , it is not at all unlikely that Pistorius would be reappointed defence minister in a new CDU-SPD coalition. And backed by a more hawkish Chancellor than Scholz. The new EU foreign affairs chief, Kai Kallas, has definitely no illusions abut Putin, nor do the countries around her country of origin, Estonia. Let's not despair that all these discussions will eventually
come together and that once European leaders have become clearer about Trump's real intentions, they will make the necessary moves within some kind of coalition, with or without him.
European leaders need more time? They’ve had 3 years, with the specter of a Trump return as an extra catalyst. If we are being blunt, those years were paid for with Ukrainian blood.
Yes, Musk did a Nazi salute. The first time he apparently felt awkward and it came out strange. Then he turned around and did it again, clear as day.
Not wishing to defend the “ European” positon particularly, but just trying to point out that the political dynamics are more complicated than in the US.
And not fair at all to lay the blame for spilt Ukrainian blood on the Europeans. They have collectively supplied as much aid and support as the US over the past three years and if the Biden administration had wanted the Ukrainians to defeat Putin, it could have provided them with much more than the just the minimum to survive and keep fighting.
Phillips, thanks for another useful update and I agree with what you believe Trump is likely to do. Yes, Ukraine will try to remain onside for as long as possible but a ceasefire along the current line of contact, is not in their interest. They will reject it but will likely string out their decision for as long as possible and you are right the US cannot enforce a settlement if the Ukranians continue fighting.
The points you have raised regarding Ukranian stock piles is a very valid one but I would suggest that given their experience at the beginning of last year, and the supplies they have received since, a large % will have been put aside for this year. Furthermore, Pres Z indicated that during 2024 Ukraine provded 35-40% of its need from their incountry DIB and throughout 2025 this will only increase as European investment in their DIB has also increased. I would be very surprised if Ukraine does not have sufficient material to see out 2025 and again you are right if they latch onto a ceasefire that just stops the fighting that will be an indicator. However, I don't think that is the case.
As for continued European support, I said my peice yesterday but if Trump only presents a ceasefire along the current line of contact, I do believe that will stiffen European resolve who will continue to support Ukraine at an elevated level. I hope.
As an aside it has been reported that in the UK that two regiments and a training unit are in the process of recieving brand spanking new Ajax armoured vehicles to replace their current Warrior armoured vehicles. Now the UK has been very opaque when it comes to the detailed material that they have supplied so I would not be at all surprised if we do not see training and deployment of Warrior to Ukraine in the near future. Warrior is the UK equivalent of the US Bradley. Watch and see.
Finally, the turd in the punch bowl is that little snippet you suggested of the US supporting Russia in a fit of pique because Ukraine does not kiss Trump's ring. That really would put the cat amongst the pigeons and would further stiffen the resolve of Europe (except Hungary and Slovakia) and would completely upend the security architecture in Europe. With Trump that is a very real possibility but even though the GOP sycophants are in a cult of personality, I do think that would be a step too far for alot of R's. Seeing that one through to a conclusion would likely see US politics mired by 24/7 continuous infighting amongst R's and their plans for the next 4 years would fall by the wayside.
Agree Alan, lots of people already did the math on received aid vs. Ukrainian losses of material during the war. There should be enough militairy equipment for 2025. When and how to use it is another question though.
Looks like Ukraine will get a boost from Israel ( confiscated equipment from Hamas, Lebanon, Syria). I believe we have insufficient detail to understand the volume.
I’m inclined to take a more optimistic view for Ukraine. I don’t think Putin is likely to accept the most likely offer – a semi- permanent cease fire in place with Ukraine not ceding legal sovereignty of occupied lands to Russia. My feeling is that Ukraine is no longer up to achieving the reclamation of its territory militarily and Trump has said Zelensky wants a deal and I don’t think Zelensky would have budged on Ukrainian sovereignty.
I believe Trump when he says Putin doesn’t want a deal. A ceasefire at the present lines could be politically ruinous to him. At very least he'd have little to show for the cost of the war and he’d have to deal with a lot of demobilized soldiers with unhappy memories of their treatment in the Russia army. The economic adjustment from a war economy to a peace time economy would also present issues.
If Putin holds out Trump is likely to try harder economic coercion. He would feel he would look weak if he didn’t and he seems to like the idea of economic coercion in general. From America’s standpoint an economic ‘war’ with Russia is low cost economically. He also knows it would have little domestic blow back because the Democrats wouldn’t complain and fondness for Russia in the US is modest. Trumps tweets show that he wants the credit for securing a peace deal and he’s not too attached to Putin to inflict pain on Russia – something I worried about 2 weeks ago. The question is how long Putin’s political support and Russia’s economy can last another year of economic burden and pain.
I found too many pitfalls following "Trump Speak" on social media. But, if we were to translate his current utterances, it would be something to the effect: he has a concept of a plan for a deal he might make. And, whatever the deal, know that he will take care of Russia who has given him a lot of money over the years. Sad. I know.
Thank you Phillips. You can’t trust Trump on anything, and he’s not a friend of Ukraine. We can only be sorry Biden didn’t do more. What are Europeans waiting for?
I don't think we should wait for the United States or for Europe to step up. The political system of the US is broken, unmoored from norms and completely unresponsive to reason.
I think we need to go to the citizens of the free world and tell them why they need to help Ukraine make the stand for freedom., tell them that if Ukraine falls, we will be in a much wider war within a few years, that through wider war, the risks of nuclear war are elevated. And even if it doesn't get to nuclear war, wider war means that global warming will not be addressed and we'll be facing endless catastrophes.
In any event, that is what I will do. Maybe if enough people will do the same, our pathetic political "leaders" will follow suit.
Fwiw, Marco Rubio has set out much more articulately than Trump the conflict-freezing concept. And he must believe that he knows what's in Trump's mind. Plus there is all the European noise about what a peacekeeping/ peace enforcement force might look like. (Hardly worth examining the details of this because it's militarily so ludicrous).
If there are grounds for feeling optimistic, they are that, if Putin is forced to the negotiating table, his army may just melt away (the 1918 Armistice scenario).
85% of American pundits and pols want the conflict-freezing outcome. Further, they think they are the practical adults in the room.
When the discussion of security guarantees comes up there seem to be zero proposals that might actually get implemented. Even the weak ideas fall apart. I don't think they could even agree to details on a sensors fig leaf.
If there is a deal - I doubt it - it will be a cut-and-run by Ukraine's least committed allies. Followed by mutual preparations for the next war.
I had to laugh during the Ukraine Breakfast discussion in Davos when the Fox Business News panelist (Gasparini?) displayed full Russian reflexive control when he said Putin would never accept NATO peacekeeping forces. I thought who cares what Putin thinks. He can bring in his N Korean allies to fight but Ukraine’s allies mustn’t send troops to comply with Putin’s wishes. It seems all of Trump’s inner circle (Tucker Carlson, Don Jr, Gabbard) are whispering in Trump’s ear to not upset Putin. Trump’s inner circle are a huge obstacle to a fair US foreign policy vis a vis Russia-Ukraine war.
It’s very frustrating for me that Zelenskyy wants to be in NATO and he provides zero transparency on the state of deaths/casualties that his country has suffered. He has an incredibly old military, who are forced to fight far too long with out rotation, he fires a wunderkind of industrial and technical production, moves a soviet fighting style general into the top spot, says on Lex Friedman podcast he slaps the wrists of those continuing corruption but wants to be in the EU. He has violated free speech and freedom of political diversity.
All that said I do believe conservative US voters are easy targets of Russian influence campaigns. They want to limit government spending, are biased toward isolationism, they just came out of an elections cycle where they were bombarded with how bad the other guys are and America needed to do the opposite of democrats. They don’t understand how important NATO is, because Trump tells them it’s a bad deal for America. Also, the Russians are damn good at their job of injecting doubt into Americans minds, causing fights between our people, and misinforming them on the history and reality of Ukraine as an independent people.
I believe that many important American conservatives understand that China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are the biggest threat to America’s version of capitalism and democracy. Let’s give them some credit that they will be successful in influencing Trump. Let’s also give Biden some credit for arming Ukraine to fight well into 2025, albeit at a lesser capacity than I would like.
Here, Niall Ferguson eviscerates a German audience member who suggested using Chinese peacekeeping troops to guarantee security after a ceasefire. In Davos.
First of all, Ukraine should obviously appear eager to go along with whatever Trump proposes and try to make Putin take the blame for the war not stopping. The latter may not be very hard since he won't agree to leave Sudzha under Ukrainian occupation for years. Putin may not even want to pause the war, period, because he's ideologically committed to ending Ukrainian nationhood, delusional about Russian speaking Ukrainians (supposedly yearning to be under his rule) and really angry at Ukraine for defying him. He also believes he can outlast the West and perhaps even that Trump will be willing to offer more concessions. Putin is probably misinformed by his entourage about both the Russian economy and the war progress, and he's likely ignorant about strategy to the point where he thinks he's winning because the lines on the map move in the desired direction.
But if it all fails and Trump basically gives Ukraine an ultimatum, I believe that Ukraine should then announce that it 1) will not stop fighting until all Russian forces either withdraw from all internationally recognized Ukrainian territory or at least announce a withdrawal on a short timeline, and 2) will not sign ANY agreements with Russia (including gas transit) before gaining full membership in the EU and NATO. I would suggest October 28 for such a statement - aka Ohi Day in Greece.
I think that is right Andrew. Ukraine needs to seem cooperative with Trump (and is doing that well now). If Trump feels slighted he might even make the US a Russian ally.
However, in the end, Ukraine needs to decide on its own interests (as do European states). They cant let themselves believe that Trump cares about these interests at all--because he doesnt.
I'm hopeful that Trump is more likely to feel slighted by Putin not accepting a deal (and depriving him of a political achievement as a peace maker) than by anything Zelensky says. I think Zelensky is more skilled personally than Putin who has made a number of misjudgements of foreign leaders and is still blinded by his desire to create the USSR Mk 2.
I'm not as hopeful. Putin is an authoritarian strongman and Putin loves those, and Trump also blames Zelenski already for assisting the Biden administration so he's predisposed to distrust him.
Ukraine has a very skilled foreign correspondence team and Zelenski is charismatic and good at getting others on his side, so all hope isn't lost. It's just that everyone in Trump's inner circle hates Ukraine so Trump is more likely to dismiss everything Zelenski says out of hand while hanging on to what Putin says.
Hmm. I don't fully agree. I suspect that most of Trump's enterage are not heavily invested in the Ukraine/Russian conflict in the way they are about other issues - anti-immigrant, anti-DEI, anti-perceived left wing ideas, anti -Trans for example. I can't help thinking that their original skepticism of Ukraine more reflected an opposition to Biden's support for them (pity it wasn't stronger and more long lasting). I think Trump's tweets have shown that he doesn't feel a feared for attachment to Putin and would happily sacrifice him if he thought it was to his (Trump's) advantage.
I would love to be wrong about this, but the signs haven't been encouraging taken together. I guess we'll see.
I think European states will get behind Ukraine (out of their own interests) if Ukraine eventually responds to Putin's demands in Greek: 'ohi' and 'molon labe' (that's all the Greek you really need to know to do diplomacy with aggressors, although the Spartan response of "If" to King Philip may also come in handy sometimes).
I expect Ukraine to physically destroy the gas terminals connecting to Russia, making it practically impossible to resume gas transit, therefore making it impossible for Western Europeans to demand that any more.
One of the four NS/NS2 pipelines is still intact. So they can activate Nord Stream 2 and pump gas directly to Germany.
Oh, it's clear Ukraine's alrady bombing compressor stations in Russia leading to Turkstream. Ukraine's saying "Go ahead, ship Russian gas via Turkiye, go for it" but they're blowing up the Russian-side assets which lead to Turkstream at the same time.
I would expect the stations in Russia leading to Nordstream to be bombed well before anyone suggests reactivating Nordstream. I would expect the ones leading through Ukraine to be bombed even earlier (I am not sure anyone is paying attention to them right now)
Blow the compressor station in Russia and then they can't.
I hope so.
Brilliant as always, Phil. Thanks for helping to shape the thinking and for always calling out the BS from the "doomers". Ben
Thanks Ben--glad you found it useful!
And Stalin killed more Russian citizens* in peacetime than Hitler did in wartime.
* Including 4 million Ukrainians in the collectivisation holocaust.
The odds of Trump knowing that are, shall we say, small.
He still thinks Hitler's generals were very loyal.
Trump would probably refer to the Holodomor as fake history or as Hologram instead.🤦♂️
> "I think, Russia is kinda in big trouble
Sigh .. the inane waffle-word 'kinda' infects speech absolutely everywhere now.
Cant disagree with that....
Thanks for the writeup Phillips - I guess we should all take a more bird's eye view on Trump's plan for Ukraine – providing he actually has one!
Stefan Korshak made some very good points this morning on that - https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/january-25-day-1066-mad-medvedev
Thanks for the link Alexandre--will take a look.
That's a good substack. That's what I was thinking too.
Trump seems to be able to shape-shift (in people's imaginations) partly because of the sheer volume of outrageous ramblings he puts out. It is hard to remember it all and unhealthy to try.
A few months after the 2022 invasion Trump predicted Russia would conquer all of UKR. He said it in a triumphal way, at best emphasizing that he was smarter than the experts, at worst because he found a Russian conquest desirable.
Last fall he declared Ukraine destroyed, gone. Again, his tone was not sorrowful, more like boasting. The declaration from the art-of-the-deal great negotiator hurt UKR's bargaining position in future negotiations.
Why are intelligent ppl still able to rest hopes in Trump as a peace maker? He has less than zero interests in UKR's future. He's not even a neutral arbiter. The American public will forget a betrayal of UKR as quickly as Afghanistan receded from public consciousness. The Republicans can and will blame failures on Biden and it won't matter. Trump has room to be Trump.
I am skeptical that Europe will wake up in 2025. As long as there is any excuse to postpone pain the excuse will be exercised. But I agree with the logic that they will come around.
Agree on all of your points. With Trump it’s all theatre. My only hope is that Ukraine can slowly turn the tide perhaps with more European aid so that Trump sees no immanent win for Russia and decides to stick with his original instinct of backing the winner. It’s a long shot but hope springs eternal.
I don't think your wish is a long shot. In fact it is the most likely outcome as I see it. Which is to say about 20% likely with many other seen and unseen possibilities.
Fingers crossed Richard. Fingers crossed.
Many thanks for this realistic update. What you say about Trump is increasingly visible in his statements, to wit : " he wants to gain credit for stopping the fighting, declare he is a peace-maker and go home". If he can put pressure in Putin to come to the negotiating table, that will be something positive and if Putin insists , as he will, on keeping the land he has conquered so far, what about the part of Russia that Ukraine has conquered and is still holding on to ? Such complications may be beyond Trump, but not beyond his advisors one hopes, nor of course beyond Ukraine that will, if negotiations do actually start, rightly insist on gaining something in return for withdrawing from Kursk. And if Putin refuses to negotiate, then the Ukrainians will simply go on fighting and Trump will look stupid, not something he will take lightly.
As for the Europeans, they must be given more time. Some leaders, as you reported from Davos, still seem to think that Putin will be happy to bank what he has conquered, sell this to his people as a great victory and agree to a cease fire. But the closer countries are to Russia, the more clairvoyant they now are about Putin's real motives.
And there can be no doubt that while the world's media is focused on Trump's every tweet and whether Elon Musk gave a Nazi salute, some serious discussions are going on behind closed doors among some Europeans about their ongoing support for Ukraine and their possible future role in any moves towards securing peace. Pistorius and Cornu (said to be very close to Macron) met this week in Paris to focus on such matters. Although Germany has yet to get a new government , it is not at all unlikely that Pistorius would be reappointed defence minister in a new CDU-SPD coalition. And backed by a more hawkish Chancellor than Scholz. The new EU foreign affairs chief, Kai Kallas, has definitely no illusions abut Putin, nor do the countries around her country of origin, Estonia. Let's not despair that all these discussions will eventually
come together and that once European leaders have become clearer about Trump's real intentions, they will make the necessary moves within some kind of coalition, with or without him.
European leaders need more time? They’ve had 3 years, with the specter of a Trump return as an extra catalyst. If we are being blunt, those years were paid for with Ukrainian blood.
Yes, Musk did a Nazi salute. The first time he apparently felt awkward and it came out strange. Then he turned around and did it again, clear as day.
Not wishing to defend the “ European” positon particularly, but just trying to point out that the political dynamics are more complicated than in the US.
And not fair at all to lay the blame for spilt Ukrainian blood on the Europeans. They have collectively supplied as much aid and support as the US over the past three years and if the Biden administration had wanted the Ukrainians to defeat Putin, it could have provided them with much more than the just the minimum to survive and keep fighting.
Oh yes, I blame both.
Phillips, thanks for another useful update and I agree with what you believe Trump is likely to do. Yes, Ukraine will try to remain onside for as long as possible but a ceasefire along the current line of contact, is not in their interest. They will reject it but will likely string out their decision for as long as possible and you are right the US cannot enforce a settlement if the Ukranians continue fighting.
The points you have raised regarding Ukranian stock piles is a very valid one but I would suggest that given their experience at the beginning of last year, and the supplies they have received since, a large % will have been put aside for this year. Furthermore, Pres Z indicated that during 2024 Ukraine provded 35-40% of its need from their incountry DIB and throughout 2025 this will only increase as European investment in their DIB has also increased. I would be very surprised if Ukraine does not have sufficient material to see out 2025 and again you are right if they latch onto a ceasefire that just stops the fighting that will be an indicator. However, I don't think that is the case.
As for continued European support, I said my peice yesterday but if Trump only presents a ceasefire along the current line of contact, I do believe that will stiffen European resolve who will continue to support Ukraine at an elevated level. I hope.
As an aside it has been reported that in the UK that two regiments and a training unit are in the process of recieving brand spanking new Ajax armoured vehicles to replace their current Warrior armoured vehicles. Now the UK has been very opaque when it comes to the detailed material that they have supplied so I would not be at all surprised if we do not see training and deployment of Warrior to Ukraine in the near future. Warrior is the UK equivalent of the US Bradley. Watch and see.
https://www.forcesnews.com/services/army/it-may-be-late-its-punchy-ajax-starts-get-rolled-out-across-army?utm_source=Forces+Newsletter&utm_campaign=4addd7620f-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2025_01_21_03_42_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_-f5a6c2b73b-441019753
Finally, the turd in the punch bowl is that little snippet you suggested of the US supporting Russia in a fit of pique because Ukraine does not kiss Trump's ring. That really would put the cat amongst the pigeons and would further stiffen the resolve of Europe (except Hungary and Slovakia) and would completely upend the security architecture in Europe. With Trump that is a very real possibility but even though the GOP sycophants are in a cult of personality, I do think that would be a step too far for alot of R's. Seeing that one through to a conclusion would likely see US politics mired by 24/7 continuous infighting amongst R's and their plans for the next 4 years would fall by the wayside.
Agree Alan, lots of people already did the math on received aid vs. Ukrainian losses of material during the war. There should be enough militairy equipment for 2025. When and how to use it is another question though.
You are an optimist, Alan. I hope you’re right.
Looks like Ukraine will get a boost from Israel ( confiscated equipment from Hamas, Lebanon, Syria). I believe we have insufficient detail to understand the volume.
I’m inclined to take a more optimistic view for Ukraine. I don’t think Putin is likely to accept the most likely offer – a semi- permanent cease fire in place with Ukraine not ceding legal sovereignty of occupied lands to Russia. My feeling is that Ukraine is no longer up to achieving the reclamation of its territory militarily and Trump has said Zelensky wants a deal and I don’t think Zelensky would have budged on Ukrainian sovereignty.
I believe Trump when he says Putin doesn’t want a deal. A ceasefire at the present lines could be politically ruinous to him. At very least he'd have little to show for the cost of the war and he’d have to deal with a lot of demobilized soldiers with unhappy memories of their treatment in the Russia army. The economic adjustment from a war economy to a peace time economy would also present issues.
If Putin holds out Trump is likely to try harder economic coercion. He would feel he would look weak if he didn’t and he seems to like the idea of economic coercion in general. From America’s standpoint an economic ‘war’ with Russia is low cost economically. He also knows it would have little domestic blow back because the Democrats wouldn’t complain and fondness for Russia in the US is modest. Trumps tweets show that he wants the credit for securing a peace deal and he’s not too attached to Putin to inflict pain on Russia – something I worried about 2 weeks ago. The question is how long Putin’s political support and Russia’s economy can last another year of economic burden and pain.
I found too many pitfalls following "Trump Speak" on social media. But, if we were to translate his current utterances, it would be something to the effect: he has a concept of a plan for a deal he might make. And, whatever the deal, know that he will take care of Russia who has given him a lot of money over the years. Sad. I know.
Thank you Phillips. You can’t trust Trump on anything, and he’s not a friend of Ukraine. We can only be sorry Biden didn’t do more. What are Europeans waiting for?
I don't think we should wait for the United States or for Europe to step up. The political system of the US is broken, unmoored from norms and completely unresponsive to reason.
I think we need to go to the citizens of the free world and tell them why they need to help Ukraine make the stand for freedom., tell them that if Ukraine falls, we will be in a much wider war within a few years, that through wider war, the risks of nuclear war are elevated. And even if it doesn't get to nuclear war, wider war means that global warming will not be addressed and we'll be facing endless catastrophes.
In any event, that is what I will do. Maybe if enough people will do the same, our pathetic political "leaders" will follow suit.
Fwiw, Marco Rubio has set out much more articulately than Trump the conflict-freezing concept. And he must believe that he knows what's in Trump's mind. Plus there is all the European noise about what a peacekeeping/ peace enforcement force might look like. (Hardly worth examining the details of this because it's militarily so ludicrous).
If there are grounds for feeling optimistic, they are that, if Putin is forced to the negotiating table, his army may just melt away (the 1918 Armistice scenario).
85% of American pundits and pols want the conflict-freezing outcome. Further, they think they are the practical adults in the room.
When the discussion of security guarantees comes up there seem to be zero proposals that might actually get implemented. Even the weak ideas fall apart. I don't think they could even agree to details on a sensors fig leaf.
If there is a deal - I doubt it - it will be a cut-and-run by Ukraine's least committed allies. Followed by mutual preparations for the next war.
I had to laugh during the Ukraine Breakfast discussion in Davos when the Fox Business News panelist (Gasparini?) displayed full Russian reflexive control when he said Putin would never accept NATO peacekeeping forces. I thought who cares what Putin thinks. He can bring in his N Korean allies to fight but Ukraine’s allies mustn’t send troops to comply with Putin’s wishes. It seems all of Trump’s inner circle (Tucker Carlson, Don Jr, Gabbard) are whispering in Trump’s ear to not upset Putin. Trump’s inner circle are a huge obstacle to a fair US foreign policy vis a vis Russia-Ukraine war.
But has noone suggested that the way to bring Russia to negotiate, is to arm Ukraine better ?
It’s very frustrating for me that Zelenskyy wants to be in NATO and he provides zero transparency on the state of deaths/casualties that his country has suffered. He has an incredibly old military, who are forced to fight far too long with out rotation, he fires a wunderkind of industrial and technical production, moves a soviet fighting style general into the top spot, says on Lex Friedman podcast he slaps the wrists of those continuing corruption but wants to be in the EU. He has violated free speech and freedom of political diversity.
All that said I do believe conservative US voters are easy targets of Russian influence campaigns. They want to limit government spending, are biased toward isolationism, they just came out of an elections cycle where they were bombarded with how bad the other guys are and America needed to do the opposite of democrats. They don’t understand how important NATO is, because Trump tells them it’s a bad deal for America. Also, the Russians are damn good at their job of injecting doubt into Americans minds, causing fights between our people, and misinforming them on the history and reality of Ukraine as an independent people.
I believe that many important American conservatives understand that China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are the biggest threat to America’s version of capitalism and democracy. Let’s give them some credit that they will be successful in influencing Trump. Let’s also give Biden some credit for arming Ukraine to fight well into 2025, albeit at a lesser capacity than I would like.
Here, Niall Ferguson eviscerates a German audience member who suggested using Chinese peacekeeping troops to guarantee security after a ceasefire. In Davos.
https://x.com/nfergus/status/1882559252797280576?s=61