Midweek Update #23: Can He Keep It Going Through The Election?
The State Of The US Military Is Pretty Distressing
Hello All,
Well, things are plodding along with Trump’s War, and in the end they will continue to do so based on a calculation that only Trump can make. This war long ago lost all strategic purpose for the USA. The Iranian regime was not overthrown (it has arguably been strengthened), US alliances in the region have been weakened, US forces have already been withdrawn from key military facilities, many of which have been so damaged that they might never be repaired.
In other words, the strategic results are pretty clear regardless of the text of any further MOU between the parties. However, that does not mean the war will end. That event will happen when Trump makes one major calculation—and so far he is not there.
Then there will be one other larger story about the state of the US military, which is worrying. A combination of great arrogance in its abilities and lately incompetence and corruption in how it has been run, has left the US military in the worst shape in its post-1945 existence. Considering the massive amounts of money that have been spent on it, the US military is arguably in its worst state ever. Sailors on the USS Abraham Lincoln for instance, seem to be paying the price for the incompetence and strategic failure of the US government (see below).
Can He Keep It Going Through The Election?
This is now quite a fascinating question that needs to be debated. I have been of the view, as regular readers will know, that Trump will have to find someway to extricate himself from the war he started, before the US midterm elections on November 3, 2026. My reasoning was that the war was so unpopular and the longer it goes on the longer gas prices remain high (and inflation overall remains higher), so that for political sake he would need to get out before the vote.
That was the whole premise of this piece written back in April—that Trump would need to do something to try and mitigate the effect of the war on the upcoming elections.
Well, it seems now that he might be willing to push the blockade for longer than I anticipated, even up until or through the midterms. There are now fewer than three months until the vote, and because of how ineptly the Trump administration has handled itself to this time, it seems the Iranians are the ones who believe that time is on their side. The US, with its extraordinary mixture of extreme bombast and open desperation, seems to have convinced the Iranians that they can wait and get the terms they want—even with the blockade going on.
The signs of that this week were pretty clear. Trump, having earlier tried to control himself a returned to bombast and nonexistent victory claims. He said at one point that the Iranians will now be expected to provide compensation payments to the USA, and repeated this threat to “keep” the control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iranians, otoh, using both official and unofficial channels, let it be known that they were happy to wait. And thus it will go on until Trump makes the calculation that accepting a deal that makes it very hard to claim victory (which is where we are at) is better than having a vote while the war is going on.
This is the rub. He thought earlier that he could get some kind of deal that would allow him to tell the American people that he had won—some kind of new nuclear statement or a clear Iranian commitment not to charge “tolls” on the Strait (these really are now the two issues that seem to be taking all his attention).
Recently, reports are that he no longer even cares about getting a nuclear deal, viewing that as unlikely, so he would settle for a deal on the Strait of Hormuz. However, clearly he cannot get anything close to what he needs to declare victory even in this one area, so would rather run the risk of keeping the war going than accept that reality. In other words—Iran is giving him nothing at all.
In some ways that is the exact same situation that he has been in since March—once it was clear that the quick victory he had assured himself was going to happen. I was amused to see the host of articles in the press this week about how Trump was desperate to get out of the war, but that Iran would not let him.
I wrote exactly that on April 1—with all the same reasons being given now in the press.
The one change since March is that Trump seems willing to press on closer until the election without a deal than seemed likely at the time—not that his basic position on wanting out has changed (he desperately wants out). That is fascinating. The change seems to be that he believes that if there is no fighting (more on that below) but that the blockade keeps going, he will not politically suffer any more than he has—that he can keep the price of gas from rising too much, that his base will support him no matter what.
Which is why the White House narrative pivoted hard this week to try and argue that Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz was, really, no big deal. Secretary of the Treasury Bessent claimed that workarounds are being implemented. The administration also started talking about 8-9 million barrels a day getting through the Strait.
Note: the reality has to be far far below this. Before the war about 130-140 tankers transited the Strait daily, now we are seeing fewer than 10.
Of course, one thing that Trump has going for him is that the oil markets have internalized his months of statements that a deal was imminent, and while the price is rising, it is below what people would have expected at this time. If the markets conclude, however, that he really will keep this going through the election, that will be another story.
So it is fascinating. Iran has decided to give Trump nothing with which he can politically claim victory and right now that is keeping this war going—maybe through the US elections (which I did not see happening).
The State Of The US Military Is Pretty Distressing
A range of stories this week made it clear that the US military is, if anything, in worse shape than people understood. The rot that has set in for a while is, if anything, accelerating. When I wrote about the “rot” in both The Atlantic and this Substack right after Trump started his war, I received some real pushback.
I think one of the basic problems is that Americans have been conditioned to hold their military in such high regard, that admitting its shortfalls is seen almost as unpatriotic (when actually it is the most patriotic thing an American can do). Blindly supporting a military while it is visibly degrading is not patriotism, it is self harm.
This week there were a few painful examples
