Phillips, I wish I could say you are too gloomy, but you are not. What is happening every night is a product of the malignant orange cancer in the US aligning itself with Russian narratives giving Putin a blank check to do this. And Europe has had more than 3 years to contingency plan for such an event and it slept.
I do not know if it is true, but has Ukraine really stepped back from attacking oil and gas infrastructure at US request? If so, a major strategic error in that is the only source of capital to keep the economy going! And Europe has to do even more to stop the shadow fleet.
I read Minna’s column and I agree these are major positive steps forward, and at least they are being made, albeit 3 years later than needed. What seems to be lacking is a long terms strategic vision of what we want the world to look like. Instead we muddle through from crisis to crisis.
We cannot forget the repeated way Biden also held out on Ukraine when it came to necessary weaponry! The war could have been over or a fair peace negotiated if Biden had given Zelensky what he was pleading for, especially when it comes to long range artillery and also fighter planes.
I saw it reported a day or two ago that Germany still hasn't decided whether to give Ukraine Taurus and 'in any case, it will take Ukraine 6 months to learn how to use it'.
I can't believe that's true, but what's more worrying is that we've been through this so many times before and Germany must be aware of the parallels if this is still its line.
“'in any case, it will take Ukraine 6 months to learn how to use it'”
Thanks, Jonathan, for the report on the use of this excuse.
In regard to the excuse itself, I call bullshit. Surely there are some people in Germany who know how to use the Taurus and who have the courage and (assuming that they are paid very well in accordance to the risk, including appropriate commitments from the German state to their families in case they don’t return alive) willingness to go to Ukraine and train the Ukrainians on the job to the extent that they even need such training. I see no reason why the Russian supplies via the Kerch bridge couldn’t be ended permanently within days of the Taurus missiles arriving in Ukraine, whenever that is. (The relevant air defence assets protecting the bridge would be destroyed first of course, but in view of how relatively easily Israel was able to destroy top Russian air defence tech in Iran, surely Germany is able to provide whatever support Ukraine might need to achieve something similar.)
What Germany is afraid of is that such escalation of the support —to the level of “whatever support Ukraine might need” that I’m calling for— is that this would be visible to Russia, and Russia would probably consider it an act of war by Germany against Russia, and maybe Russia would somehow escalate their own acts of war against Germany in return.
Even if I’m currently not living in Germany, I’m German and I feel fear in regard to this situation and I say that’s ok to feel fear, but when facing bullies like Putin and Trump such fear must not be what determines our actions.
I really don't think Russia would consider it an act of war. Russia may be saying that they would, but if anyone working for the German government believes the threat, I think they should be fired.
(Which is not to criticise 'normal' people for being afraid, not least because they're taking a lead from their leaders.)
Russia didn't declare war on the UK or France when Stormshadows were sent. I understand Taurus is more powerful... but come off it.... Russia isn't going to declare war over it!
Exactly right about Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles. They have inflicted great damage on Russian assets. Putin will not declare war on Germany over the use of Taurus missiles. (he might go beserk over extensive damage to Kerch)
It drives me crazy that Russia uses thousands of N Korean soldiers and now apparently will deploy Laotian troops to assist in demining operations and Ukraine gets no outside troops to even provide relief of their forces in Western Ukraine because of fear of Putin.
My understanding of “Russia” (by which in this context I mean: the current government of Russia together with their military and intelligence apparatus) is that they see themselves as being at war with NATO in a manner that consists of military actions in Ukraine and non-military actions (i.e. hostile actions calibrated to not trigger article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty) directly against NATO countries. Russia hasn’t “declared war”, but nevertheless committed many actions directly against NATO countries that I consider acts of war even if they are not “armed attacks” in the article 5 sense.
Couldn't agree more about the special relationship. A real millstone around Britain's neck, preventing us from identifying and pursuing our own vital interests. But it's very ingrained, and rhe common language and so much shared history and culture make it very difficult to move away from. At least Trump is helping in that respect.
If you love somebody, set them free. Sure, but what if you enjoy holding them down?
PS! I know we should not listen to what He says, but apparently He has agreed to sell weapons to Ukraine via NATO, and will make a BIG statement about Russia on Monday. Yes, let's see.
If people are looking for Europe to become more independent of the US I don't think we need to worry about the likely truth that Europeans would rush back into US junior partner/dependent status if Trump ‘changed his tune and behaved like a good Atlanticist”. I might see him change his tune (lying is one of his core competencies) but acting like a good Atlanticist? Safe as houses he won’t.
What the Europeans need is a bit of Canadian “elbows up” that Mark Carney has brought to the fore. If the Quebecois can all the sudden be one “Canadian patriots” this should be a no brainer for Europe.
Thanks Philips. Some good news at least. But it’s tragic that my friends in Ukraine will bear the frightening consequences of the lack of planning. And still the western media is full of the Trump will he, won’t he nonsense!!
Two points amplifying your concerns, with which I very much agree:
1) Russia's economy cannot shift back to peacetime mode without Putin losing power, the GDP collapse would be horrific. IF (still a big if) Russia forces Ukraine to submit, they will turn on other nations quickly.
2) I've been thinking about drones in the context of a debt spiral (when the interest rate charged on national debt is higher than national growth rate) - a drone death spiral occurs when the growth rate of the enemy's drone production/acquisition exceeds the growth rate of the defender's air defense production/acquisition.
Indeed on point 2--which is why just sitting back in air defense is not a viable strategy--it has to involve ranged attacks into Russia to lessen the threat.
Jake Sullivan's (Biden's) decision to not allow Ukraine to target Russian military assets outside of Ukraine will reverberate for a long time. A point you have been making for years.
Letting drones out of Pandora's box was a huge error.
The surprise of the Nato summit was in a certain sense the bombing by Trump of Iran. He showed by doing this what he and the us military are capable of on the one hand, but also who is the boss, and the major European powers followed the US in this, not daring to criticize Netanyahu's moves, forcing Trump to bomb.
So the European major powers showed more obedience to Trump then stepping up their own act.
There are good signs as you rightly put it, but they are still very weak
Not sure the Europeans forced the US to bomb--that was a trump mistake thinking he would have an easy victory. However, i agree that there has been far too much European obedience.
Sorry, I wasn't clear. I think it is Netanyahu who forced the Trump hand to bomb Iran. The mayor European powers following afterwards, afraid to criticize in any way.
I dont want to raise false hope, but it looks like the USA might sell some weapons to NATO which can be send to Ukraine. Lets see how that evolves
"We're sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for those weapons, 100%. So what we’re doing is the weapons that are going out are going to NATO, and then NATO is going to be giving those weapons (to Ukraine), and NATO is paying for those weapons," Trump said (NBC).
I agree. I am a hopeless optimist, however I have learnt from you to keep my hopes low. From this perspective I can imagine a situation where the US administration sells weapons out of self interest since they are worried about Europe not buying their equipment as you have pointed out
Indeed--the US has no obligation to defend Europe. Personally I believe it is in US interest to be linked to Europe--but that is not the view of others!
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), russia’s massive drone strikes target Ukrainian morale more than its military assets. There's no military goal in these massive strikes but Moscow now prioritizes psychological pressure over battlefield gain. ISW notes that this tactic "intends to overwhelm air defenses and emotionally exhaust Ukraine’s population." The UN reported that June was the highest month for civilian casualties since the start of the war in 2022. Lil' putin is hoping to subjugate Ukraine through terror from the skies but Ukrainians understand: It is better to live, fight and die as a free Ukrainian than live as a russian slave.
"shooting the archer not trying to intercept the arrow"
I was listening to a UK defense expert address the issue of future Russian threats to Europe. He pointed out that it takes 2 to 3 interceptors to down every incoming missile. Given Russia's projected missile inventory, the notion of missile shields is foolish. THe UK and Europe need to dramatically increase their own long range strike capability. Russia will have to be deterred, not blocked, and Europe is dangerously behind schedule in this goal.
It seems like Ukraine's tragic situation is the wake-up call. How did they not see it coming? I guess they pinned hopes on a negotiated settlement. Biden made terrible choices drawing this war out.
The ways to deal with missiles and all other kinds of flying explosives are (1) deterrence [which has not yet been seriously attempted in regard to Russia’s imperialistic ideas concerning Ukraine] and (2) destroying as many as possible as early as possible. Blowing up missile factories, trucks or trains transporting them, depots, and launch systems etc are good ways to reduce Ukraine’s torment precisely because the cost for Russia to replace what is destroyed is greater than the cost of destroying it.
And the same would apply in any future war that Russia might undertake in the context of seeking to realize the vision of a renewed “Eurasia” empire, which in the vision of the author of a popular-in-Russia geopolitics textbook would extend “from Dublin to Vladivostok”.
A ship does not sail on yesterday's wind. More and more it's becoming clear what Trump is about to do: turn the USA into a fascist, isolationist country that has left Ukraine in the cold and most probably won't defend Taiwan either. Back in juli 2024 Trump stated in Bloomberg Businessweek: “I mean, how stupid are we? They took all of our chip business. They’re immensely wealthy.” What he wants is for Taiwan to pay the US for protection. “I don’t think we’re any different from an insurance policy. Why? Why are we doing this?” he asks." So, Trump probably will treat Taiwan the same as Ukraine. Another ten years of Trump politics and the international position of the USA will be damaged permanently. We are seeing the decline of a global economic empire. What strikes is the total lack of action in the USA against a de facto fascist regime. Where is the civil disobedience? It's the same as in 1930s Germany: the silent majority of the people is fine, as long as it's always other people that are deported. First they came for the "criminal illegal aliens"....
King” protests in the USA, including those on the same Saturday of Trump’s birthday military parade. Trump’s parade numbers were pitiful. The “No King” protest numbers were huge, even in Red states. Protests against the ICE mass arrests of immigrants have also been significant.
Trump's sending aid to Ukraine again. I think he decided Putin's a loser who doesn't have any money to pay him. Releasing stuff which is already physically located in Europe, apparently.
Dear Professor O’Brien, it drives me bug f—k crazy when you and many other national security commentators refer to the UK and French nuclear deterrent forces as tiny or small implying as insignificant. For too long, much of the Atlantic Alliance security community doesn’t understand the power of nuclear weapons. A single SSBN launching its arsenal can destroy European Russia. A single squadron of DCA fighter bombers armed with two nuclear weapons can destroy the VSK airfields in European Russia with low collateral damage. I note the B-61-12 has a low yield earth penetrating option. For far too long, much of the NATO security community has treated nuclear weapons as conventional weapons the critique of Robert Jervis where more is better. Therefore I believe this recent decision on nuclear weapon collaboration by London and Paris is brilliant and long overdue. Once again Putin has miscalculated including his mismanagement of his relations with the highly volatile President Trump.
With respect, a series of American presidents, policy choices, and poor strategic decisions over the past quarter century have brought America to its current deplorable (yes, that word) situation of being run by a criminal lunatic and a gang interested only in loot and performative cruelty as ethno-nationalists. Britain and France are politically weak, internally divided, and much smaller in relative economic importance than they used to be in the world even a couple of decades ago. Will their nuclear umbrella provide Ukraine shelter from Russian blackmail? Perhaps, if it's not just another public posture without substance. If it's any consolation to the Western democracies in decline, Russia is in ever-worse shape as its murderous tyrant sinks deeper in blood and slides to bankruptcy and overthrow.
Phillips, I wish I could say you are too gloomy, but you are not. What is happening every night is a product of the malignant orange cancer in the US aligning itself with Russian narratives giving Putin a blank check to do this. And Europe has had more than 3 years to contingency plan for such an event and it slept.
I do not know if it is true, but has Ukraine really stepped back from attacking oil and gas infrastructure at US request? If so, a major strategic error in that is the only source of capital to keep the economy going! And Europe has to do even more to stop the shadow fleet.
I read Minna’s column and I agree these are major positive steps forward, and at least they are being made, albeit 3 years later than needed. What seems to be lacking is a long terms strategic vision of what we want the world to look like. Instead we muddle through from crisis to crisis.
We think alike Paul--I hope we are wrong!
Phillips, I want to be wrong going forward!! But we are reporting the data points from past experience, and extrapolating it forward.
We cannot forget the repeated way Biden also held out on Ukraine when it came to necessary weaponry! The war could have been over or a fair peace negotiated if Biden had given Zelensky what he was pleading for, especially when it comes to long range artillery and also fighter planes.
"Yes but Taurus would make us part of the war so zat is why ve vill not do it" - Chancellor Scholz
"I will give the Taurus!" - Chancellor Merz a few months ago
"..." - Chancellor Merz today
Indeed--Taurus to strike launch facilities would have helped
I saw it reported a day or two ago that Germany still hasn't decided whether to give Ukraine Taurus and 'in any case, it will take Ukraine 6 months to learn how to use it'.
I can't believe that's true, but what's more worrying is that we've been through this so many times before and Germany must be aware of the parallels if this is still its line.
So far they have decided not to give them--until they appear, that seems to be the case.
“'in any case, it will take Ukraine 6 months to learn how to use it'”
Thanks, Jonathan, for the report on the use of this excuse.
In regard to the excuse itself, I call bullshit. Surely there are some people in Germany who know how to use the Taurus and who have the courage and (assuming that they are paid very well in accordance to the risk, including appropriate commitments from the German state to their families in case they don’t return alive) willingness to go to Ukraine and train the Ukrainians on the job to the extent that they even need such training. I see no reason why the Russian supplies via the Kerch bridge couldn’t be ended permanently within days of the Taurus missiles arriving in Ukraine, whenever that is. (The relevant air defence assets protecting the bridge would be destroyed first of course, but in view of how relatively easily Israel was able to destroy top Russian air defence tech in Iran, surely Germany is able to provide whatever support Ukraine might need to achieve something similar.)
What Germany is afraid of is that such escalation of the support —to the level of “whatever support Ukraine might need” that I’m calling for— is that this would be visible to Russia, and Russia would probably consider it an act of war by Germany against Russia, and maybe Russia would somehow escalate their own acts of war against Germany in return.
Even if I’m currently not living in Germany, I’m German and I feel fear in regard to this situation and I say that’s ok to feel fear, but when facing bullies like Putin and Trump such fear must not be what determines our actions.
I really don't think Russia would consider it an act of war. Russia may be saying that they would, but if anyone working for the German government believes the threat, I think they should be fired.
(Which is not to criticise 'normal' people for being afraid, not least because they're taking a lead from their leaders.)
Russia didn't declare war on the UK or France when Stormshadows were sent. I understand Taurus is more powerful... but come off it.... Russia isn't going to declare war over it!
Apart from that point though, I agree with you.
Exactly right about Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles. They have inflicted great damage on Russian assets. Putin will not declare war on Germany over the use of Taurus missiles. (he might go beserk over extensive damage to Kerch)
It drives me crazy that Russia uses thousands of N Korean soldiers and now apparently will deploy Laotian troops to assist in demining operations and Ukraine gets no outside troops to even provide relief of their forces in Western Ukraine because of fear of Putin.
My understanding of “Russia” (by which in this context I mean: the current government of Russia together with their military and intelligence apparatus) is that they see themselves as being at war with NATO in a manner that consists of military actions in Ukraine and non-military actions (i.e. hostile actions calibrated to not trigger article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty) directly against NATO countries. Russia hasn’t “declared war”, but nevertheless committed many actions directly against NATO countries that I consider acts of war even if they are not “armed attacks” in the article 5 sense.
I think you're right. I just don't think Germany providing Taurus would change anything with regards what Russia is willing (or not) to do.
The Russians were already planning to assassinate the Rheinmetall chief. More than that I don't think they'll dare to do.
Even so, I did expect better from the Germans, given they should understand the lessons from Sudetenland better than anybody.
As Cassian says in the Star Wars series about the early development of the Rebel
Alliance, Andor, of course he’s afraid, but that doesn’t mean he’s losing his nerve. Highly recommend this Disney Plus series! Quite inspiring!
Couldn't agree more about the special relationship. A real millstone around Britain's neck, preventing us from identifying and pursuing our own vital interests. But it's very ingrained, and rhe common language and so much shared history and culture make it very difficult to move away from. At least Trump is helping in that respect.
Its definitely a strong idea in the British government--dont think its going to change soon
If you love somebody, set them free. Sure, but what if you enjoy holding them down?
PS! I know we should not listen to what He says, but apparently He has agreed to sell weapons to Ukraine via NATO, and will make a BIG statement about Russia on Monday. Yes, let's see.
The Sting Doctrine..
In “his” demented state, he will have forgotten about it or changed his mind by breakfast. Or he will be distracted yet again by his incontinence
If people are looking for Europe to become more independent of the US I don't think we need to worry about the likely truth that Europeans would rush back into US junior partner/dependent status if Trump ‘changed his tune and behaved like a good Atlanticist”. I might see him change his tune (lying is one of his core competencies) but acting like a good Atlanticist? Safe as houses he won’t.
Its not likely I agree--but I fear it would not take too much acting...
What the Europeans need is a bit of Canadian “elbows up” that Mark Carney has brought to the fore. If the Quebecois can all the sudden be one “Canadian patriots” this should be a no brainer for Europe.
One would hope that was the case!
Thanks Philips. Some good news at least. But it’s tragic that my friends in Ukraine will bear the frightening consequences of the lack of planning. And still the western media is full of the Trump will he, won’t he nonsense!!
I agree--and I do have difficulties getting excited about the good news, knowing what is happening in Ukraine
Two points amplifying your concerns, with which I very much agree:
1) Russia's economy cannot shift back to peacetime mode without Putin losing power, the GDP collapse would be horrific. IF (still a big if) Russia forces Ukraine to submit, they will turn on other nations quickly.
2) I've been thinking about drones in the context of a debt spiral (when the interest rate charged on national debt is higher than national growth rate) - a drone death spiral occurs when the growth rate of the enemy's drone production/acquisition exceeds the growth rate of the defender's air defense production/acquisition.
Point 2 is a terrifying thought.
Indeed on point 2--which is why just sitting back in air defense is not a viable strategy--it has to involve ranged attacks into Russia to lessen the threat.
Jake Sullivan's (Biden's) decision to not allow Ukraine to target Russian military assets outside of Ukraine will reverberate for a long time. A point you have been making for years.
Letting drones out of Pandora's box was a huge error.
The surprise of the Nato summit was in a certain sense the bombing by Trump of Iran. He showed by doing this what he and the us military are capable of on the one hand, but also who is the boss, and the major European powers followed the US in this, not daring to criticize Netanyahu's moves, forcing Trump to bomb.
So the European major powers showed more obedience to Trump then stepping up their own act.
There are good signs as you rightly put it, but they are still very weak
Not sure the Europeans forced the US to bomb--that was a trump mistake thinking he would have an easy victory. However, i agree that there has been far too much European obedience.
Sorry, I wasn't clear. I think it is Netanyahu who forced the Trump hand to bomb Iran. The mayor European powers following afterwards, afraid to criticize in any way.
I dont want to raise false hope, but it looks like the USA might sell some weapons to NATO which can be send to Ukraine. Lets see how that evolves
"We're sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for those weapons, 100%. So what we’re doing is the weapons that are going out are going to NATO, and then NATO is going to be giving those weapons (to Ukraine), and NATO is paying for those weapons," Trump said (NBC).
I actually see nothing concrete here--just rumors. Until the weapons are purchased and shipped--it means nothing.
I agree. I am a hopeless optimist, however I have learnt from you to keep my hopes low. From this perspective I can imagine a situation where the US administration sells weapons out of self interest since they are worried about Europe not buying their equipment as you have pointed out
I used to be an optimist by nature.....seems like a long time ago!
The US has a credit line. Europe?, maybe not so much. Before WW1 and WW2 there were periods of US isolation toward Europe. Here we are again.
Indeed--the US has no obligation to defend Europe. Personally I believe it is in US interest to be linked to Europe--but that is not the view of others!
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), russia’s massive drone strikes target Ukrainian morale more than its military assets. There's no military goal in these massive strikes but Moscow now prioritizes psychological pressure over battlefield gain. ISW notes that this tactic "intends to overwhelm air defenses and emotionally exhaust Ukraine’s population." The UN reported that June was the highest month for civilian casualties since the start of the war in 2022. Lil' putin is hoping to subjugate Ukraine through terror from the skies but Ukrainians understand: It is better to live, fight and die as a free Ukrainian than live as a russian slave.
Slava Ukraini!
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/07/10/isw-moscows-drone-strategy-now-targets-morale-more-than-military-value/
"shooting the archer not trying to intercept the arrow"
I was listening to a UK defense expert address the issue of future Russian threats to Europe. He pointed out that it takes 2 to 3 interceptors to down every incoming missile. Given Russia's projected missile inventory, the notion of missile shields is foolish. THe UK and Europe need to dramatically increase their own long range strike capability. Russia will have to be deterred, not blocked, and Europe is dangerously behind schedule in this goal.
It seems like Ukraine's tragic situation is the wake-up call. How did they not see it coming? I guess they pinned hopes on a negotiated settlement. Biden made terrible choices drawing this war out.
Strongly agreed.
The ways to deal with missiles and all other kinds of flying explosives are (1) deterrence [which has not yet been seriously attempted in regard to Russia’s imperialistic ideas concerning Ukraine] and (2) destroying as many as possible as early as possible. Blowing up missile factories, trucks or trains transporting them, depots, and launch systems etc are good ways to reduce Ukraine’s torment precisely because the cost for Russia to replace what is destroyed is greater than the cost of destroying it.
And the same would apply in any future war that Russia might undertake in the context of seeking to realize the vision of a renewed “Eurasia” empire, which in the vision of the author of a popular-in-Russia geopolitics textbook would extend “from Dublin to Vladivostok”.
A ship does not sail on yesterday's wind. More and more it's becoming clear what Trump is about to do: turn the USA into a fascist, isolationist country that has left Ukraine in the cold and most probably won't defend Taiwan either. Back in juli 2024 Trump stated in Bloomberg Businessweek: “I mean, how stupid are we? They took all of our chip business. They’re immensely wealthy.” What he wants is for Taiwan to pay the US for protection. “I don’t think we’re any different from an insurance policy. Why? Why are we doing this?” he asks." So, Trump probably will treat Taiwan the same as Ukraine. Another ten years of Trump politics and the international position of the USA will be damaged permanently. We are seeing the decline of a global economic empire. What strikes is the total lack of action in the USA against a de facto fascist regime. Where is the civil disobedience? It's the same as in 1930s Germany: the silent majority of the people is fine, as long as it's always other people that are deported. First they came for the "criminal illegal aliens"....
There have been nationwide “No
King” protests in the USA, including those on the same Saturday of Trump’s birthday military parade. Trump’s parade numbers were pitiful. The “No King” protest numbers were huge, even in Red states. Protests against the ICE mass arrests of immigrants have also been significant.
Trump's sending aid to Ukraine again. I think he decided Putin's a loser who doesn't have any money to pay him. Releasing stuff which is already physically located in Europe, apparently.
Things are still dire in the US, of course.
Dear Professor O’Brien, it drives me bug f—k crazy when you and many other national security commentators refer to the UK and French nuclear deterrent forces as tiny or small implying as insignificant. For too long, much of the Atlantic Alliance security community doesn’t understand the power of nuclear weapons. A single SSBN launching its arsenal can destroy European Russia. A single squadron of DCA fighter bombers armed with two nuclear weapons can destroy the VSK airfields in European Russia with low collateral damage. I note the B-61-12 has a low yield earth penetrating option. For far too long, much of the NATO security community has treated nuclear weapons as conventional weapons the critique of Robert Jervis where more is better. Therefore I believe this recent decision on nuclear weapon collaboration by London and Paris is brilliant and long overdue. Once again Putin has miscalculated including his mismanagement of his relations with the highly volatile President Trump.
With respect, a series of American presidents, policy choices, and poor strategic decisions over the past quarter century have brought America to its current deplorable (yes, that word) situation of being run by a criminal lunatic and a gang interested only in loot and performative cruelty as ethno-nationalists. Britain and France are politically weak, internally divided, and much smaller in relative economic importance than they used to be in the world even a couple of decades ago. Will their nuclear umbrella provide Ukraine shelter from Russian blackmail? Perhaps, if it's not just another public posture without substance. If it's any consolation to the Western democracies in decline, Russia is in ever-worse shape as its murderous tyrant sinks deeper in blood and slides to bankruptcy and overthrow.