Europe: Some Good News And Some Bad

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Hi All,

I want to start this piece by referring you to an excellent column that Minna published on her own substack last night. Some good news if you are a believer that Europe needs to start looking after itself and taking strategic responsibility for its own future. It is, btw, a perfect launch pad for our Substack live today.

You might not be surprised that I am not so optimistic (not necessarily about this step—which is a good thing, more on that below). I still see European states being painfully slow to act in their own interests—particularly in helping Ukraine weather what is going to be a Summer of intense bombardment. The real problem that I see is that what European states are doing now might be great in the future, but they are facing a strategic crisis right now and are not (and have not) done enough to prepare for it.

However, lets put the gloom at the end of the column and start with the positive stuff.

The Good News

Europe is (slowly but surely) beginning to imagine a future where it does not need to rely on the USA to be the big brother/protector. You will notice the hedging words “beginning to imagine”, because I do not believe Europe is there yet, and many states would quickly and happily revert to strategic subordination to the USA if Trump changed his tune and acted like a good Atlanticist. That being said, the moves by the French and British governments yesterday are an important first few steps.

First, the British and French announced the establishment of a separate military headquarters to help funnel military aid to Ukraine—without much/any US contributions. It could be the start of a real “coalition of the willing” which would start aiding Ukraine on European terms not US—and which could provide more aid more quickly. If you want to read more, here is the official UK statement on the new headquarters, which explicitly uses the phrase “coalition of the willing”.

A good move by Macron and Starmer—if they follow up.

The other thing that France and Britain did, during the just ended visit of French President Macron to the UK, is announce that going forward they will “coordinate” their nuclear deterrent forces. There was a great deal of fanfare about this (I spoke to German television about it if you want to see more).

This certainly could represent an important milestone. If this really means that France and Britain will act together to try and extend their (very small) nuclear umbrellas over Europe while developing future systems and, crucially, coming up with a command structure that can assure other European states—that is a big deal indeed.

This is the kind of step, however, that can be quickly made irrelevant—and I think the UK is the real weak partner. The British still remain committed to the (non-existent) “special relationship” and will pivot quickly back to the US if they are given any incentive to do so. I am thinking of writing a piece discussing how the “special relationship” has become a cargo cult of sorts for the UK, holding the country back—but more on that later.

Actually, to me the most important good news is that in making these moves, the Europeans are showing that they understand that they have more leverage over the USA than they understood previously. The US is nervous about losing influence over Europe and Europe going its own way in defense (and not buying billions and billions of US made products). In fact the Trump administration all of a sudden seemed nervous about the Franco-British attempts to move on without them, and for the first time in a while, asked to take part in these discussions. According to one story.

For the first time, however, US representatives were part of the coalition talks – including Ukraine special envoy Keith Kellogg and US Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal – after previous editions of the talks had been widely shunned by the Trump administration.

Europeans understanding that they have this leverage is crucial to Europe’s future. It must break the shackles of US intellectual control as much as anything else—stop looking at itself as some child, and realize that it can (not will) be a power in its own right.

So good news—if there is real follow up.

Bad News—We Are Witnessing The Bitter Cost Of Failure.

If you have not noticed, Ukrainian cities are getting pummelled now on a nightly basis. Russian air attacks, based around hundreds of Shaheds with a large number of cruise and ballistic missiles mixed in, are now the norm. On Wednesday night, for instance, the Russian fired about 400 Shaheds and 30 missiles at Ukraine (mostly Kyiv)—and a number got through the defensive screen and did real damage. This came a day after the Russians launched their largest attack of the war, with more than 700 shaheds and around 15 missiles.

This is now a normal night in Ukraine—and was entirely predictable.

And it was entirely predictable. Russian military production seems to have increasingly concentrated on long-range weaponry (as opposed to military vehicles of which it is running short). There was widespread knowledge in the second half of 2024 that Russian shahed and missile production was set to rise sharply. Heck, in mid-2023 there were widespread reports that Russia was planning to mass produce shaheds. At the same time it was shown that if Russia can continue to find a way around sanctions (which is has—partly because the Trump administration continues not to bring any new ones online) these numbers were set to grow as well.

The only way for Ukraine to deal with this entirely foreseen situations would have been proactive attempts to both attack the launch (and building) infrastructure in Russia (shooting the archer not trying to intercept the arrow) and beefing up Ukrainian air defense. However, Ukraine’s partners have let it down badly and for the Europeans this was particularly inexcusable. They had both the ability to help more and to use their leverage to try and get the US to do more—but they did not. This situation will continue, regardless of what Europe does now, for the rest of the Summer and into the Fall.

So yes, Europe is showing some positive signs now, but we are also witnessing a summer shaped by earlier European failures. Unfortunately, it is the Ukrainians that will pay the price.