Good luck with your new project. To find what happened in the past wars may be difficult, but understanding why they were allowed to occur at all might be impossible. For a supposedly intelligent species, we are very slow to learn.
PS Please do not allow yourself to stress on posting here. I think I can safely claim for all that you have already exceeded our expectations. If you explain the Ukrainian war history as well as you explain the situation here and in your books, then all will benefit.
Thanks G. Yes, getting rest is important for everyone. I really like interacting on this board, so its not an issue normally. Just last week was rather busy!
Thank you for this update; I appreciate you sharing your insights, especially with regards to how the Ukrainians see their efforts. My frustration with the US, already extreme, has now reached a fevered pitch. Honestly, I’m surprised I haven’t been blacklisted from Whitehouse.gov, given how many messages I post there.
I look forward to reading your “capsule” as well as all the others; sounds like a fascinating read.
Good idea! I just sent this (very quickly written):
Please Mr. President,
Ukrainians are in a desperate fight for their survival. We must give them more support and the ability to use provided long range weapons to strike within Russia.
Ukraine's offensive into Russia's Kursk region shows that Russian red lines are all bluster. Ukrainians understand this. They are willing to take the risk and be the tip of the spear to fight Russian imperialism in Europe. We need to have as much courage as Ukrainians do.
We are not doing as much as we could. We are not providing as many aircraft and tanks as we could. We have been very slow to provide long range fires. I don't understand this hesitancy. It strikes me as feckless and irresolute.
Mr. President, we need to be strong. Please do everything you can to support Ukraine's existential fight for its survival.
The narrative direct from Ukrainians is very powerful because it is so personal. I feel like I am hearing it first hand almost. It helps put me in their shoes and appreciate their frustration with the west as well as their determination and guts.
Phillips, decisions are made by appeals to emotions, the emotions from people experiencing the reality. In its way, what you have written is more powerful than any strategic analysis. It feels immediate. It packs an emotional punch. It will move passive supporters to act now. You have given these people a voice which shows that they are like us. So prompts the question: How would we feel in their situation, given the peace meal support we have provided.
This is material for WSJ, Kamala and BIden and all doubters.
Really pleased that you have been invited to take part in the Ukrainian Global History Project, Phillips.
I remember watching the launch video in London with Timothy Snyder and his collaborative historians, and I spoke about in on the Mriya Report as being really significant.
Russia has been trying to steal Ukraines history for hundreds of years, either by appropriating the history for its own historical narrative or preventing Ukrainians from learning and talking about their history.
Look forward to hearing more about your war capsule.
As for the war effort, I can well imagine how frustrated Ukrainians are with their ‘western partners’: with friends like us, who needs enemies. Except they have the world’s worst neighbours in Russia. I thought that the US and UK were finally going to do the right thing with respect to approval to use western long range fires to destroy the targets they were designed to destroy, Russian targets in Russia, but alas, the doves seem to have gained the ascendancy in Washington and Berlin again.
As Starmer is alas not a Churchill, or even a Johnston, so I despair at his tendency to dither and delay.
Ukraine have already realised that they will have to build the systems that they need to do the job themselves. Rather than us giving them the tools to finish the job, it’s sadly more a case of us giving them our best wishes and thoughts and prayers.
Hi G--one of the key parts of the project is to create a Ukrainian history outside of the Russian shadow--and stretch it out the world at large. Its very ambitious--and needs to be done.
Informative update, Phillips! There is no substitute for getting a feel from those in the ground in all walks of life. Congratulations on being part of the Ukrainian history initiative. As somebody who studied “Russian History” as an undergraduate the first third was about Kievan Rus…not exactly Russian at all as we know it, and Muscovy as a backwater until its “rise”
As for the situation on the ground, I do not expect Germany to ever provide meaningful long range fires to Ukraine as they are still fixated economically with being tied to Russia. As for the US, the sooner Jake Sullivan goes the better and Harris, if she walks the talk, will be far better at delivering for Ukraine than Biden has.
Hi Paul--thanks for that. I agree, sometimes you need to go there. And sadly, I agree with you about Germany. for the US, rumors are floating around that Blinken is getting tough on Russia
I hope you are right about that premise(VP Harris being far quicker to provide what’s needed), my prayers continue to be she is elected because former President Trump will be a huge step in the wrong direction for everyone), I am hopeful that the UK will push ahead with allowing the Storm Shadows to be used further into Russia.
Harris is spending a lot of time, money, and narrative going after Trump to the Eastern and Central European diaspora/descendents explaining how forcefully she will stand up to Putin and defend Ukraine and others nations in key swing states. It is a message I cannot imagine Biden sending even on his best days. That is the talk…my sense is she will walk it as well. Having visited far more often than Biden, she has a better sense.
Many thanks for this very different update to your previous posts. And congratulations for becoming involved in the UHGI project. So glad to see that Timothy Snyder is also one of its leading lights. I have found his Yale undergraduate lectures an excellent and inspiring introduction to Ukrainian history and very much look forward to seeing this project, with your participation and that of Mykola, coming to fruition.
Your observations on the course of the war as experienced by ordinary Ukrainians very much reflect those of my own contacts in Ukraine, in Kyiv and Odesa but also in a small village between Dnipro and Mykolaev: tired but resilient, firmly convinced not only that Ukraine can win this war but that it must win it, devastated and angry that so many young soldiers have sacrificed their lives and that others will be scarred for life, all in order to beat back a bloodthirsty dictator, his evil regime and his apathetic people.
And this is not the first time either that I hear misgivings about the role of Yermak, who seems to pull all the strings and is about the only senior official around Zelensky who has not moved anywhere since the start the of the full-scale invasion. Undoubtedly your work on the history of the war within the UHGI will shed more light on the reality of his influence, beneficial or otherwise.
Very much look forward to following the progress of UHGI and your future posts.
The work on UHGI will be a big part of my professional life for the next few years--Im really pleased and a little daunted by it. Im pleased that what I was hearing matches with what you are hearing--the narrative in and around Kyiv was pretty consistent.
The Ukrainian narrative at present is that they have trapped Russian troops south of the Seim. They say there are now perhaps 45,000 Russian troops in Kursk facing a fraction of that number of Ukrainian. One might guess that perhaps 6000 of those are in the pocket Ukraine has created. Russian bloggers sound anxious, but of course they don't have special insight.
Within a week, we should know whether the Kursk campaign was a good idea. It has bought time for Povrovsk. But with Zelensky saying that Ukraine is so short of equipment that it's not able to equip even one-third off its brigades-in-training, the west needs to step it up or risk failing to capitalize on an opportunity that has been created.
I hope people are writing to the President and to their congresspeople.
Will be very interesting to see what happens to that pocket south of the Seym. Though it still might take longer to make a definitive judgement on Kursk!
A very moving post, professor. Thank you! You bring into focus the heartbreaking daily reality of a people fighting a brutal war with a ruthless barbaric enemy for their very survival for years now - years!
My sense of Biden's failure to approve Ukraine's use of US long range weapons by Ukraine - or even the use of the UK's and France's Storm Shadows - comes from the stubborness related to an aging brain and a towering ego. He's simply dug in on the rightness of his cautious conservative viewpoint. Perhaps much like his failure to use the leverage he has had to reign in the Israelis from their utterly mad genocidal war in Gaza. The way he refused to withdraw from the presidential race till the bitter end. Yes half a loaf is better than nothing - much better - but when the other half is "cautiously" held back from a starving people, it is unconscionable.
Thanks again for the update and congratulations on your your mission to rewrite a part of the history of Ukraine, a meaningful and challenging task many former Soviet Union countries face. Very interesting to hear slso of the daily life in Kyiv, and the talks you had on society and politics, especially about Zelensky and Yermak. A question: were there any open discussions about when martial law should be ended and when there will be general elections again?
Interesting point. No one mentioned the need for an election right now--hard to do with 20 percent of the country occupied. Will discuss that next time I go
Richard Haas, Tom Freidman, David Ignatius, Ian Bremmer, Niall Ferguson and iconic Russia historian Stephen Kotkin all believe Putin MUST be allowed to retain control over a significant swath of Ukraine. (I'm throwing out some well-known names to illustrate that this view is broadly held and not the product of corporate media publishers.) These folks dubiously argue that such an outcome is not a "Russian Victory"; they say it saves the world from the dangers of Russian disintegration.
Just yesterday I listened to Bill Galston of Brookings/The Bulwark make the annoying circular argument that Ukraine can't win because its supporters won't give it the means to win because it can't win. Galston said he is part of a "Ukraine Study Group" - I assume fellow think tankers - where there is little belief that it is productive for Ukraine to fight on.
The point of my rant is that it is silly to blame the publishers of corporate media for reflecting a bias that is so ingrained in expert and informed opinion.
I don't think Ukraine is doomed to Russian subjugation. Its going to be a long struggle. Putin overplayed his hand.
Excellent rant, Richard. I didn't know that Niall Ferguson is among those who think Russia should get to keep a part of Ukraine for the sake of "stability." These are among the worst-informed people about Russia. A "Ukraine Study Group" composed of people who know nothing about Ukraine or its history, and know nothing about Russian history and especially Russian historiography, all of the members of which continually act in bad faith, is typical of these people. With those criteria I could just as easily be in charge of a group of people studying and writing about inorganic chemistry.
Niall Ferguson makes the extra-annoying argument that the U.S./UKR errored by not cutting a deal shortly after the successful the 2022 Kherson counteroffensive when Putin was on his back foot. (Kotkin makes same hollow, self-serving claim.) Even if UKR could have been strong-armed into ceding territory when they were winning, why would Putin reverse his formal annexation of those territories on top of his recent humiliation?
That is so факінґ annoying and typical of these people. There is no thought for those who are left behind in the occupied areas. Whenever Samuel Charap is asked about that very subject, he avoids answering, which only shows that he's acting in bad faith. In fact they all are. And talking of 2022, Ukraine could very easily have won the war in the autumn of 2022 had Musk not cut off Starlink in the middle of a major operation.
Realists accuse us of of not being realistic, when it is they who are not realistic. They live in a fantasy world in which individuals don't matter. What I've noticed time and again about those who think Ukraine should give in to Russia's demands, is their shallowness. Yes, they all have their PhDs but they sit comfortably, most of them in the West, and tell the rest of us, in this case Ukrainians, how they think they should arrange their lives. It seems never to occur to them to ask Ukrainians what they think, or to read Ukrainian writers.
Reading eastern European history, including the writings of dissidents as well as everyday people who kept diaries, has changed me irrevocably. I am utterly contemptuous of those who see human beings as chess pieces to be wiped off a board at will.
No, no, no. Realists live in a world in which military capacities matter and in which the capabilities and physical existence of munitions and troops matter. Both these factors have been missing from the Professor's analysis and that of his commentariat - lots of talks of 'should', but less of 'can' - how many ATACMS and Storm Shadows for instance would be required for Ukrainian victory - how many Abrahms, Bradleys etc. The numbers required are likely a multiple of those that physically exist.
Dunno what’s wrong with these people; I think Niall Ferguson has become so self-regarding since his move to the U.S. that he’s a parody of his former analytical rigour. I am very surprised to read that Thomas Friedman is an Ukraine defeatist; he is so right, and so forthright, about Israel and Gaza that I’d have thought he would be too about Ukraine. Are you sure?
Tom Friedman has been deeply disappointing on Ukraine. He urged sending more weapons in first year, but his position was "Lets get this over quickly; we'll have to cut a deal so Ukraine doesn't become an endless U.S. dependent." He never complained when the weapons he urged were withheld. The last column he wrote on Ukraine, which is a full year ago in my memory, he went full Elon Musk, dignifying Russia's rightful claim to Russian speaking areas.
I too have long admired Friedman, agree or disagree. He is a good example of the inability of so many analysts to fully see the Russian threat. So many want to go back to detente, to use a cold war word. (Richard Haas is clear eyed on Russian threat, but he seems to think China will match any increased support we give to Ukraine.)
Thank you! What else should we give Putin to keep him happy? Some other Eastern European country? Anyway, Yogi Berra, as usual, got it right. “It ain’t over’ til it’s over.”
Your list includes people who have been prominent in Middle East matters and sympathise with the Israeli cause. Israel’s diplomacy has been working from the beginning - Bennet’s visit to Ukraine - to find a compromise favourable to Russia. They consider, rightly or wrongly, that the important thing is not to have Russia and Russian forces in Syria so antagonised that they start obstructing any attack Israel may make on Iran. The world is complex
Clicks? The same reason they seem to be *in the bag* for Donald Trump? I think the state of US corporate media is decline - and they know it. They lost *the right* years ago and it seems they’re aggressively pursuing pissing the rest of us off.
Once again, great post, Prof. O'Brien. I didn't know you were asked to join the Ukrainian History Global Initiative, though I'm not surprised. I can hardly wait for the papers/books.
"One of the benefits that Ukraine has over Russia is that it has a more nimble and adaptable economy." Yes, that and the fact that Ukraine is a nation of engineers who are very tech- and digital-savvy. I've seen several videos of both boys and girls in their teens making drones for their fathers' units.
The man with the disheveled hair is Boris Johnson.
I think AI-guided drones will not only have an impact on this war, but will end up being one of the really important innovations in the history of warfare.
Thanks very much for your poignant observations from Ukraine. It's wonderful you were able to visit and spend a little time there. What Ukrainians are going through breaks my heart. We absolutely could do so much more to help them, at very little cost to ourselves.
They are the tip of the spear fighting Russian imperialism. They are defending their families, their homes, and their way of life. They just want to be able to live normal lives, and the only way for that to happen is for Russia to lose this war and give up on any future European conquests.
Good luck with your new project. To find what happened in the past wars may be difficult, but understanding why they were allowed to occur at all might be impossible. For a supposedly intelligent species, we are very slow to learn.
PS Please do not allow yourself to stress on posting here. I think I can safely claim for all that you have already exceeded our expectations. If you explain the Ukrainian war history as well as you explain the situation here and in your books, then all will benefit.
Thanks G. Yes, getting rest is important for everyone. I really like interacting on this board, so its not an issue normally. Just last week was rather busy!
Thank you for this update; I appreciate you sharing your insights, especially with regards to how the Ukrainians see their efforts. My frustration with the US, already extreme, has now reached a fevered pitch. Honestly, I’m surprised I haven’t been blacklisted from Whitehouse.gov, given how many messages I post there.
I look forward to reading your “capsule” as well as all the others; sounds like a fascinating read.
Thanks Edward. The capsule will focus on the 20th and 21st centuries--and will be about 30k words--so will be a substantial piece,
I share you frustrations.
Good idea! I just sent this (very quickly written):
Please Mr. President,
Ukrainians are in a desperate fight for their survival. We must give them more support and the ability to use provided long range weapons to strike within Russia.
Ukraine's offensive into Russia's Kursk region shows that Russian red lines are all bluster. Ukrainians understand this. They are willing to take the risk and be the tip of the spear to fight Russian imperialism in Europe. We need to have as much courage as Ukrainians do.
We are not doing as much as we could. We are not providing as many aircraft and tanks as we could. We have been very slow to provide long range fires. I don't understand this hesitancy. It strikes me as feckless and irresolute.
Mr. President, we need to be strong. Please do everything you can to support Ukraine's existential fight for its survival.
Thank you.
Well done
Damn Paul, that’s way better than my efforts! Mind if I personalize this slightly for my next foray?
Thanks! Absolutely, use what works for you. :-)
Thanks. This update helps keep my hopes up.
The narrative direct from Ukrainians is very powerful because it is so personal. I feel like I am hearing it first hand almost. It helps put me in their shoes and appreciate their frustration with the west as well as their determination and guts.
Phillips, decisions are made by appeals to emotions, the emotions from people experiencing the reality. In its way, what you have written is more powerful than any strategic analysis. It feels immediate. It packs an emotional punch. It will move passive supporters to act now. You have given these people a voice which shows that they are like us. So prompts the question: How would we feel in their situation, given the peace meal support we have provided.
This is material for WSJ, Kamala and BIden and all doubters.
Good luck and keep going!
Best wishes,
Lawrence
Appreciate that very much Lawrence. Agree that its important to let the Ukrainians speak. What they are experiencing is extreme
Really pleased that you have been invited to take part in the Ukrainian Global History Project, Phillips.
I remember watching the launch video in London with Timothy Snyder and his collaborative historians, and I spoke about in on the Mriya Report as being really significant.
Russia has been trying to steal Ukraines history for hundreds of years, either by appropriating the history for its own historical narrative or preventing Ukrainians from learning and talking about their history.
Look forward to hearing more about your war capsule.
As for the war effort, I can well imagine how frustrated Ukrainians are with their ‘western partners’: with friends like us, who needs enemies. Except they have the world’s worst neighbours in Russia. I thought that the US and UK were finally going to do the right thing with respect to approval to use western long range fires to destroy the targets they were designed to destroy, Russian targets in Russia, but alas, the doves seem to have gained the ascendancy in Washington and Berlin again.
As Starmer is alas not a Churchill, or even a Johnston, so I despair at his tendency to dither and delay.
Ukraine have already realised that they will have to build the systems that they need to do the job themselves. Rather than us giving them the tools to finish the job, it’s sadly more a case of us giving them our best wishes and thoughts and prayers.
I pray for a growth of balls in our governments.
Hi G--one of the key parts of the project is to create a Ukrainian history outside of the Russian shadow--and stretch it out the world at large. Its very ambitious--and needs to be done.
Informative update, Phillips! There is no substitute for getting a feel from those in the ground in all walks of life. Congratulations on being part of the Ukrainian history initiative. As somebody who studied “Russian History” as an undergraduate the first third was about Kievan Rus…not exactly Russian at all as we know it, and Muscovy as a backwater until its “rise”
As for the situation on the ground, I do not expect Germany to ever provide meaningful long range fires to Ukraine as they are still fixated economically with being tied to Russia. As for the US, the sooner Jake Sullivan goes the better and Harris, if she walks the talk, will be far better at delivering for Ukraine than Biden has.
Hi Paul--thanks for that. I agree, sometimes you need to go there. And sadly, I agree with you about Germany. for the US, rumors are floating around that Blinken is getting tough on Russia
I hope you are right about that premise(VP Harris being far quicker to provide what’s needed), my prayers continue to be she is elected because former President Trump will be a huge step in the wrong direction for everyone), I am hopeful that the UK will push ahead with allowing the Storm Shadows to be used further into Russia.
Harris is spending a lot of time, money, and narrative going after Trump to the Eastern and Central European diaspora/descendents explaining how forcefully she will stand up to Putin and defend Ukraine and others nations in key swing states. It is a message I cannot imagine Biden sending even on his best days. That is the talk…my sense is she will walk it as well. Having visited far more often than Biden, she has a better sense.
Many thanks for this very different update to your previous posts. And congratulations for becoming involved in the UHGI project. So glad to see that Timothy Snyder is also one of its leading lights. I have found his Yale undergraduate lectures an excellent and inspiring introduction to Ukrainian history and very much look forward to seeing this project, with your participation and that of Mykola, coming to fruition.
Your observations on the course of the war as experienced by ordinary Ukrainians very much reflect those of my own contacts in Ukraine, in Kyiv and Odesa but also in a small village between Dnipro and Mykolaev: tired but resilient, firmly convinced not only that Ukraine can win this war but that it must win it, devastated and angry that so many young soldiers have sacrificed their lives and that others will be scarred for life, all in order to beat back a bloodthirsty dictator, his evil regime and his apathetic people.
And this is not the first time either that I hear misgivings about the role of Yermak, who seems to pull all the strings and is about the only senior official around Zelensky who has not moved anywhere since the start the of the full-scale invasion. Undoubtedly your work on the history of the war within the UHGI will shed more light on the reality of his influence, beneficial or otherwise.
Very much look forward to following the progress of UHGI and your future posts.
The work on UHGI will be a big part of my professional life for the next few years--Im really pleased and a little daunted by it. Im pleased that what I was hearing matches with what you are hearing--the narrative in and around Kyiv was pretty consistent.
Keep yourself healthy mate. You've got years of productive work ahead of yourself with YES.
Thanks Michael--will do!
The Ukrainian narrative at present is that they have trapped Russian troops south of the Seim. They say there are now perhaps 45,000 Russian troops in Kursk facing a fraction of that number of Ukrainian. One might guess that perhaps 6000 of those are in the pocket Ukraine has created. Russian bloggers sound anxious, but of course they don't have special insight.
Within a week, we should know whether the Kursk campaign was a good idea. It has bought time for Povrovsk. But with Zelensky saying that Ukraine is so short of equipment that it's not able to equip even one-third off its brigades-in-training, the west needs to step it up or risk failing to capitalize on an opportunity that has been created.
I hope people are writing to the President and to their congresspeople.
Will be very interesting to see what happens to that pocket south of the Seym. Though it still might take longer to make a definitive judgement on Kursk!
A very moving post, professor. Thank you! You bring into focus the heartbreaking daily reality of a people fighting a brutal war with a ruthless barbaric enemy for their very survival for years now - years!
My sense of Biden's failure to approve Ukraine's use of US long range weapons by Ukraine - or even the use of the UK's and France's Storm Shadows - comes from the stubborness related to an aging brain and a towering ego. He's simply dug in on the rightness of his cautious conservative viewpoint. Perhaps much like his failure to use the leverage he has had to reign in the Israelis from their utterly mad genocidal war in Gaza. The way he refused to withdraw from the presidential race till the bitter end. Yes half a loaf is better than nothing - much better - but when the other half is "cautiously" held back from a starving people, it is unconscionable.
Its a tricky question--but I think you are right that ultimately it comes down to Biden. This is his policy.
Thanks again for the update and congratulations on your your mission to rewrite a part of the history of Ukraine, a meaningful and challenging task many former Soviet Union countries face. Very interesting to hear slso of the daily life in Kyiv, and the talks you had on society and politics, especially about Zelensky and Yermak. A question: were there any open discussions about when martial law should be ended and when there will be general elections again?
Interesting point. No one mentioned the need for an election right now--hard to do with 20 percent of the country occupied. Will discuss that next time I go
Thank you. Why are newspapers like the NY Times so sure of a Russian victory? What do they have to gain?
Richard Haas, Tom Freidman, David Ignatius, Ian Bremmer, Niall Ferguson and iconic Russia historian Stephen Kotkin all believe Putin MUST be allowed to retain control over a significant swath of Ukraine. (I'm throwing out some well-known names to illustrate that this view is broadly held and not the product of corporate media publishers.) These folks dubiously argue that such an outcome is not a "Russian Victory"; they say it saves the world from the dangers of Russian disintegration.
Just yesterday I listened to Bill Galston of Brookings/The Bulwark make the annoying circular argument that Ukraine can't win because its supporters won't give it the means to win because it can't win. Galston said he is part of a "Ukraine Study Group" - I assume fellow think tankers - where there is little belief that it is productive for Ukraine to fight on.
The point of my rant is that it is silly to blame the publishers of corporate media for reflecting a bias that is so ingrained in expert and informed opinion.
I don't think Ukraine is doomed to Russian subjugation. Its going to be a long struggle. Putin overplayed his hand.
Ukraine can win---thats sure--but it cant win without the right help.
What is the right help? Does it physically exist now and if not, how long would it take the West to provide it?
Excellent rant, Richard. I didn't know that Niall Ferguson is among those who think Russia should get to keep a part of Ukraine for the sake of "stability." These are among the worst-informed people about Russia. A "Ukraine Study Group" composed of people who know nothing about Ukraine or its history, and know nothing about Russian history and especially Russian historiography, all of the members of which continually act in bad faith, is typical of these people. With those criteria I could just as easily be in charge of a group of people studying and writing about inorganic chemistry.
Niall Ferguson makes the extra-annoying argument that the U.S./UKR errored by not cutting a deal shortly after the successful the 2022 Kherson counteroffensive when Putin was on his back foot. (Kotkin makes same hollow, self-serving claim.) Even if UKR could have been strong-armed into ceding territory when they were winning, why would Putin reverse his formal annexation of those territories on top of his recent humiliation?
That is so факінґ annoying and typical of these people. There is no thought for those who are left behind in the occupied areas. Whenever Samuel Charap is asked about that very subject, he avoids answering, which only shows that he's acting in bad faith. In fact they all are. And talking of 2022, Ukraine could very easily have won the war in the autumn of 2022 had Musk not cut off Starlink in the middle of a major operation.
Realists accuse us of of not being realistic, when it is they who are not realistic. They live in a fantasy world in which individuals don't matter. What I've noticed time and again about those who think Ukraine should give in to Russia's demands, is their shallowness. Yes, they all have their PhDs but they sit comfortably, most of them in the West, and tell the rest of us, in this case Ukrainians, how they think they should arrange their lives. It seems never to occur to them to ask Ukrainians what they think, or to read Ukrainian writers.
Reading eastern European history, including the writings of dissidents as well as everyday people who kept diaries, has changed me irrevocably. I am utterly contemptuous of those who see human beings as chess pieces to be wiped off a board at will.
Hi Rose- can you tell me or point me to more info on this point you made?
“Ukraine could very easily have won the war in the autumn of 2022 had Musk not cut off Starlink in the middle of a major operation.”
No, no, no. Realists live in a world in which military capacities matter and in which the capabilities and physical existence of munitions and troops matter. Both these factors have been missing from the Professor's analysis and that of his commentariat - lots of talks of 'should', but less of 'can' - how many ATACMS and Storm Shadows for instance would be required for Ukrainian victory - how many Abrahms, Bradleys etc. The numbers required are likely a multiple of those that physically exist.
Dunno what’s wrong with these people; I think Niall Ferguson has become so self-regarding since his move to the U.S. that he’s a parody of his former analytical rigour. I am very surprised to read that Thomas Friedman is an Ukraine defeatist; he is so right, and so forthright, about Israel and Gaza that I’d have thought he would be too about Ukraine. Are you sure?
Tom Friedman has been deeply disappointing on Ukraine. He urged sending more weapons in first year, but his position was "Lets get this over quickly; we'll have to cut a deal so Ukraine doesn't become an endless U.S. dependent." He never complained when the weapons he urged were withheld. The last column he wrote on Ukraine, which is a full year ago in my memory, he went full Elon Musk, dignifying Russia's rightful claim to Russian speaking areas.
I too have long admired Friedman, agree or disagree. He is a good example of the inability of so many analysts to fully see the Russian threat. So many want to go back to detente, to use a cold war word. (Richard Haas is clear eyed on Russian threat, but he seems to think China will match any increased support we give to Ukraine.)
Thank you! What else should we give Putin to keep him happy? Some other Eastern European country? Anyway, Yogi Berra, as usual, got it right. “It ain’t over’ til it’s over.”
Your list includes people who have been prominent in Middle East matters and sympathise with the Israeli cause. Israel’s diplomacy has been working from the beginning - Bennet’s visit to Ukraine - to find a compromise favourable to Russia. They consider, rightly or wrongly, that the important thing is not to have Russia and Russian forces in Syria so antagonised that they start obstructing any attack Israel may make on Iran. The world is complex
It might be a question of the analysts to whom they listen
Clicks? The same reason they seem to be *in the bag* for Donald Trump? I think the state of US corporate media is decline - and they know it. They lost *the right* years ago and it seems they’re aggressively pursuing pissing the rest of us off.
Once again, great post, Prof. O'Brien. I didn't know you were asked to join the Ukrainian History Global Initiative, though I'm not surprised. I can hardly wait for the papers/books.
"One of the benefits that Ukraine has over Russia is that it has a more nimble and adaptable economy." Yes, that and the fact that Ukraine is a nation of engineers who are very tech- and digital-savvy. I've seen several videos of both boys and girls in their teens making drones for their fathers' units.
The man with the disheveled hair is Boris Johnson.
The one next to Johnson was Mike Pompeo
Ukraine really is doing some fascinating things in developing and building UAVs--its cutting edge.
Holy moly. I would never have guessed it was Mike Pompeo.
Pompeo and Johnson? Be afraid Ukraine.... No moral fiber there, just opportunists.
I think AI-guided drones will not only have an impact on this war, but will end up being one of the really important innovations in the history of warfare.
strong chance
Thanks very much for this report.
Thanks for that Francesca
Fascinating as ever - many thanks.
Appreciate that Andy
Thanks very much for your poignant observations from Ukraine. It's wonderful you were able to visit and spend a little time there. What Ukrainians are going through breaks my heart. We absolutely could do so much more to help them, at very little cost to ourselves.
They are the tip of the spear fighting Russian imperialism. They are defending their families, their homes, and their way of life. They just want to be able to live normal lives, and the only way for that to happen is for Russia to lose this war and give up on any future European conquests.
Agree with that Paul