There are huge technical differences between Ukrainian and Israeli situations. Even if Ukraine were as supported as Israel, a similar aerial assault on Ukraine would still be devastating. I can think of at least several reasons. To begin with, some Russian missiles seem to be more advanced (and harder to intercept) that the Iranian ones. Then Iran is far from Israel, so there was ample warning (in fact it took the drones several hours to approach Israel). The range of directions of approach was also limited, as almost all projectiles originated to the east from Israel (except for some from Yemen). OTOH Russia can launch from Belarussian airspace, Crimea and everywhere in between. US naval assets are located in the Mediterranean and Red Seas and in the Persian Gulf, and presumably there are AWACS planes flying around. So Iranian launches were quickly detected, and some projectiles could be shot down by US ships. When the Russians launch missiles from e.g. the Caspian Sea, they may not even be detected soon (let alone shot down), as there can be no US (or other friendly) naval or air assets within hundreds of miles. Israeli fighters could venture hundreds of miles outside Israel for interceptions because it was perfectly safe for them to fly over Jordan (in fact the local air force joined them in their efforts and shot down dozens of drones). But even if Ukraine had a lot of F-16s, they would not dare to try any interceptions in Russian air space. They would not even risk flying over Kharkiv. Finally, Israel is much smaller than Ukraine, so it needs fewer systems to cover all important areas. Half of Israeli population lives in the area that is at most twice bigger than the area within Kyiv city limits. And Kyiv is well protected.
I dearly wish your contacts are right about a possibility of a vote. And sadly, I fear your absolutely on point about this being the worst signal to send about nuclear weapons.
The wisdom of Ukraine giving up all its nuclear weapons in exchange for the security 'assurances' of the big powers in the Budapest Memorandum - rather than 'guarantees' - is increasingly in doubt. And the mendacious decisions to keep Ukraine out of NATO seem to make one thing clear. Ukraine is not in the Nuclear Club. Talks of not escalating the war, which is popular rhetoric in the USA , seem to be come down to only one thing. Is Ukraine's fight-back going to cause the rise in gas prices?! In an election year!! There are reports of Russian propagandists aghast by American pressure on Ukraine to pull back. They are well aware how weak it makes the Biden administration look. Russia is taking advantage of this weakness. So the old truism stands 'with friends ( the USA) like these, who needs enemies?'
No rational actor will ever give up nuclear deterrence again after the pitiful response to the 2014 invasion of Ukraine. While there were the usual tut-tuts, even MH17 didn't deter the EU from seeking closer ties through the expansion of Nordstream and like direct investments in the Russian economy by all western multinational companies. Once those investments happened, there were lots of powerful people all over the west holding politicians hostage via their purse strings.
Back in 2014, Ukraine may have seemed far away. The 2008 response to the invasion of Georgia was similarly anemic. The destruction of Chechnya was written off as an internal matter, etc. Without any serious deterrence, why wouldn't Putin feel encouraged to invade on a wider scale? It had worked for him before...
I fully agree that more Patriot, ATCAMs, etc. need to be released, ditto the shackles on targeting inside Russia. Ukraine is the victim here and the conflict could be resolved tomorrow if Putin decides to withdraw his troops from inside the Ukrainian territorial lines recognized in 1991.
France, UK, US, Germany, Poland, etc. could absolutely provide assets to defend Ukrainian civilian and energy targets with their own equipment and own personnel from their own bases. Defending against unmanned drones, missiles, etc. would not be an escalation or a provocation against Russia, simply a defense of human life and a reduction in human suffering.
The US has done much more to kill Russians by providing huge amounts of weapons, not everything I would like but massive aid nonetheless, targeting information that killed many senior Russian officers, including many Generals, likely supports and trains Russian nationalists enjoying safe harbor in Ukraine. Providing defense of civilians lives would be accepted globally, and would send a message to China that Japan, South Korea, Australia and the UK would join the US in a similar fashion in defending Taiwan.
At his core, Trump is transactional. Anyone, including Zelenskyy, can flatter their way into his good graces. It's why Team Putin ultimately found Trump disappointing. And I'll be frank with you, Phillips. If Trump endorsed Ukraine aid tomorrow, I would have to vote for him because Joe Biden has been a massive disappointment. We'd have been better off making Jimmy Carter president again.
Another week, another round of *how terrible is America!?*. Hooray!
Seriously though, I believe the reason for Mike Johnson’s reversal on Ukraine aid can be found in this article that I’ve not seen covered anywhere else.
Essentially, as Speaker Johnson is a hardcore Evangelical, the Ukrainian Evangelicals have been working the religion angle. In Ukraine, they met with Zelensky and convinced him to establish a “National Prayer Breakfast” in Ukraine. This is an American Evangelical thing and one is thrown every year in DC by an organization known as “The Family”. (If you’re unfamiliar with this organization, there is a Netflix documentary series about them.). This group met with Johnson prior to his trip to see Donnie on Friday. We shall see what comes of it. 🤞Regardless, the whole piece is worth reading.
You also didn’t mention Dmytro Kuleba’s worldwide tour to identify and secure Patriots and that he’s apparently gotten at least one commitment for another system + ammo for it from Germany.
The idea of nuclear weapons as the only real protection from aggressive neighbors is not new. You only have to look at Israel. So then it will come as no surpise to learn, in the future, that Ukraine has a secret plan to develop some form of nuclear weapons of their own. They have the expertise and the very obvious need. Also, they don't need very many to provide an effective deterrence. Of course, this pre-supposes that Ukraine will survive the next year or two of Russian aggression and gets adequate support from the West...something very much in doubt at the moment. Having said that, it is maddening to see the lengths the U.S. is willing to go to in defense of Israel...a country more than capable of defending itself, while allowing Ukraine to "bleed out". Never doubt the power of AIPAC in U.S. domestic politics. Many years ago, when Mao Zedong and the Chinese communists had successfully defeated Sun Yat-sen's Kuomintang and forced it to re-locate to present day Taiwan the U.S. political leaders were in a ferment over "Who lost China?". Will they be saying something similar about Ukraine?
Phillips, with a bit of adjustment your part 1 about the Biden administration's Ukraine strategy is really having the inevitable effect of leading to nuclear proliferation would make an important and timely opinion piece placed somewhere in the mainstream media. It would inform the general public of the potentially dire consequences of this dangerously wrong headed strategy, and it would put pressure on Biden to rethink it. As an aside, that 'photo' of Johnson and Trump (the still from the CBS News video) is a masterpiece.
The major “houses” had “atomics”. These were basically a suicide pill that would also wipe out either the emperor or the other house attacking them directly
So what happened?
All war was through intelligence services basically
Proxy wars, terrorism
But everyone having nukes so to speak did bring a sort of stability
Then again the great houses lived on separate planets
The Polish Foreign Minister made the very same point a couple of weeks ago about nuclear proliferation as the only guarantee of a country's sovereignty. At this point, it seems to me that the only way Ukraine can get the equipment it needs is to repudiate the Budapest Memorandum and withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Ideally it could be done in tandem with other Eastern European countries such as Poland, Czechia Romania and the Baltic States. I wager the Biden Administration would be falling over itself to give Ukraine everything it needs. And if it didn't then a weapons program could be instituted taking place in Poland or Czechia under the NATO Nuclear Umbrella.
Thank you for this piece. I am wondering how much Russia helped the Iranians to navigate their attack on Israel, given their unfortunate experience in the war with Ukraine? This axis is becoming stronger; they may share not just technology, but knowledge as well.
Difficult to argue against your position Phillips, though some have tried. Here’s my two pennies.
1. Israel was attacked by Hamas in October and almost immediately there were two US Carrier Strike Groups plus one Ohio Class SSGN sitting off Tel Aviv to provide support. As soon as Russia started its exercises back in January 2022, the US and NATO allies could have sent a task force on a freedom of navigation exercise through the Bosporus into the Black Sea for a Navel Exercise off Odesa. Plus a combined operations force comprising the 82nd Airborne, US Marines, UK Royal Marines and 16 Air Assault Brigade to do some land exercises. Of course this did not happen because we have forgotten how to do deterrence!
2. After the Russian full scale invasion in 2022, I remember Boris Johnston was in Poland speaking to some Ukrainians refugees and there was a reporter there who asked Boris about a no fly zone. He nearly crapped himself but I think he was genuinely ashamed that he had to show such timidly to avoid the dreaded escalation that every western leader feared. He seemed to grow a pair after that and so the UK acted as a leader for a while in sending weapon systems to Ukraine before other countries to test the so called Russian red lines, which in reality are a pale shade of pink.
3. Imagine how Ukrainians living in Odesa, Kharkiv, Kyiv, or any other city attacked by Russian cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and Shaheed drones night after night when the west have supplied an meagre amount of air defence equipment and won’t countenance boots on the ground or airplanes in the sky, only to see the US, UK and Jordan fall over themselves to help Israel in its hour of need.
4. Not in anyway condemning the western support for Israel. The enemies of Israel are part of the same axis of evil that is fighting Ukraine now and threatening world peace. Just saying that it exposes in a stark contrast the lack of support we’ve given to Ukraine for two years.
Excellent post Phillips and, as usual, outstanding comments.
The comment by LCB about Israel’s retaliation against Iran causing mass destruction of their missile/drone production capabilities stands out. That outcome would assist Ukraine greatly and harm Russia. Please make it happen.
There are huge technical differences between Ukrainian and Israeli situations. Even if Ukraine were as supported as Israel, a similar aerial assault on Ukraine would still be devastating. I can think of at least several reasons. To begin with, some Russian missiles seem to be more advanced (and harder to intercept) that the Iranian ones. Then Iran is far from Israel, so there was ample warning (in fact it took the drones several hours to approach Israel). The range of directions of approach was also limited, as almost all projectiles originated to the east from Israel (except for some from Yemen). OTOH Russia can launch from Belarussian airspace, Crimea and everywhere in between. US naval assets are located in the Mediterranean and Red Seas and in the Persian Gulf, and presumably there are AWACS planes flying around. So Iranian launches were quickly detected, and some projectiles could be shot down by US ships. When the Russians launch missiles from e.g. the Caspian Sea, they may not even be detected soon (let alone shot down), as there can be no US (or other friendly) naval or air assets within hundreds of miles. Israeli fighters could venture hundreds of miles outside Israel for interceptions because it was perfectly safe for them to fly over Jordan (in fact the local air force joined them in their efforts and shot down dozens of drones). But even if Ukraine had a lot of F-16s, they would not dare to try any interceptions in Russian air space. They would not even risk flying over Kharkiv. Finally, Israel is much smaller than Ukraine, so it needs fewer systems to cover all important areas. Half of Israeli population lives in the area that is at most twice bigger than the area within Kyiv city limits. And Kyiv is well protected.
I'm hearing hopeful news about the Ukraine aid bill but I've heard it before. I'll believe it when I see it.
I dearly wish your contacts are right about a possibility of a vote. And sadly, I fear your absolutely on point about this being the worst signal to send about nuclear weapons.
The wisdom of Ukraine giving up all its nuclear weapons in exchange for the security 'assurances' of the big powers in the Budapest Memorandum - rather than 'guarantees' - is increasingly in doubt. And the mendacious decisions to keep Ukraine out of NATO seem to make one thing clear. Ukraine is not in the Nuclear Club. Talks of not escalating the war, which is popular rhetoric in the USA , seem to be come down to only one thing. Is Ukraine's fight-back going to cause the rise in gas prices?! In an election year!! There are reports of Russian propagandists aghast by American pressure on Ukraine to pull back. They are well aware how weak it makes the Biden administration look. Russia is taking advantage of this weakness. So the old truism stands 'with friends ( the USA) like these, who needs enemies?'
No rational actor will ever give up nuclear deterrence again after the pitiful response to the 2014 invasion of Ukraine. While there were the usual tut-tuts, even MH17 didn't deter the EU from seeking closer ties through the expansion of Nordstream and like direct investments in the Russian economy by all western multinational companies. Once those investments happened, there were lots of powerful people all over the west holding politicians hostage via their purse strings.
Back in 2014, Ukraine may have seemed far away. The 2008 response to the invasion of Georgia was similarly anemic. The destruction of Chechnya was written off as an internal matter, etc. Without any serious deterrence, why wouldn't Putin feel encouraged to invade on a wider scale? It had worked for him before...
I fully agree that more Patriot, ATCAMs, etc. need to be released, ditto the shackles on targeting inside Russia. Ukraine is the victim here and the conflict could be resolved tomorrow if Putin decides to withdraw his troops from inside the Ukrainian territorial lines recognized in 1991.
France, UK, US, Germany, Poland, etc. could absolutely provide assets to defend Ukrainian civilian and energy targets with their own equipment and own personnel from their own bases. Defending against unmanned drones, missiles, etc. would not be an escalation or a provocation against Russia, simply a defense of human life and a reduction in human suffering.
The US has done much more to kill Russians by providing huge amounts of weapons, not everything I would like but massive aid nonetheless, targeting information that killed many senior Russian officers, including many Generals, likely supports and trains Russian nationalists enjoying safe harbor in Ukraine. Providing defense of civilians lives would be accepted globally, and would send a message to China that Japan, South Korea, Australia and the UK would join the US in a similar fashion in defending Taiwan.
At his core, Trump is transactional. Anyone, including Zelenskyy, can flatter their way into his good graces. It's why Team Putin ultimately found Trump disappointing. And I'll be frank with you, Phillips. If Trump endorsed Ukraine aid tomorrow, I would have to vote for him because Joe Biden has been a massive disappointment. We'd have been better off making Jimmy Carter president again.
Another week, another round of *how terrible is America!?*. Hooray!
Seriously though, I believe the reason for Mike Johnson’s reversal on Ukraine aid can be found in this article that I’ve not seen covered anywhere else.
https://thefuckingnews.substack.com/p/dying-for-us-aid-zelenskyy-agrees?
Essentially, as Speaker Johnson is a hardcore Evangelical, the Ukrainian Evangelicals have been working the religion angle. In Ukraine, they met with Zelensky and convinced him to establish a “National Prayer Breakfast” in Ukraine. This is an American Evangelical thing and one is thrown every year in DC by an organization known as “The Family”. (If you’re unfamiliar with this organization, there is a Netflix documentary series about them.). This group met with Johnson prior to his trip to see Donnie on Friday. We shall see what comes of it. 🤞Regardless, the whole piece is worth reading.
You also didn’t mention Dmytro Kuleba’s worldwide tour to identify and secure Patriots and that he’s apparently gotten at least one commitment for another system + ammo for it from Germany.
The idea of nuclear weapons as the only real protection from aggressive neighbors is not new. You only have to look at Israel. So then it will come as no surpise to learn, in the future, that Ukraine has a secret plan to develop some form of nuclear weapons of their own. They have the expertise and the very obvious need. Also, they don't need very many to provide an effective deterrence. Of course, this pre-supposes that Ukraine will survive the next year or two of Russian aggression and gets adequate support from the West...something very much in doubt at the moment. Having said that, it is maddening to see the lengths the U.S. is willing to go to in defense of Israel...a country more than capable of defending itself, while allowing Ukraine to "bleed out". Never doubt the power of AIPAC in U.S. domestic politics. Many years ago, when Mao Zedong and the Chinese communists had successfully defeated Sun Yat-sen's Kuomintang and forced it to re-locate to present day Taiwan the U.S. political leaders were in a ferment over "Who lost China?". Will they be saying something similar about Ukraine?
Phillips, with a bit of adjustment your part 1 about the Biden administration's Ukraine strategy is really having the inevitable effect of leading to nuclear proliferation would make an important and timely opinion piece placed somewhere in the mainstream media. It would inform the general public of the potentially dire consequences of this dangerously wrong headed strategy, and it would put pressure on Biden to rethink it. As an aside, that 'photo' of Johnson and Trump (the still from the CBS News video) is a masterpiece.
I loved the Frank Herbert Dune novels
The major “houses” had “atomics”. These were basically a suicide pill that would also wipe out either the emperor or the other house attacking them directly
So what happened?
All war was through intelligence services basically
Proxy wars, terrorism
But everyone having nukes so to speak did bring a sort of stability
Then again the great houses lived on separate planets
I will never forgive the Republicans for betraying Ukraine, even if they belatedly approve aid now.
The Polish Foreign Minister made the very same point a couple of weeks ago about nuclear proliferation as the only guarantee of a country's sovereignty. At this point, it seems to me that the only way Ukraine can get the equipment it needs is to repudiate the Budapest Memorandum and withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Ideally it could be done in tandem with other Eastern European countries such as Poland, Czechia Romania and the Baltic States. I wager the Biden Administration would be falling over itself to give Ukraine everything it needs. And if it didn't then a weapons program could be instituted taking place in Poland or Czechia under the NATO Nuclear Umbrella.
Thank you for this piece. I am wondering how much Russia helped the Iranians to navigate their attack on Israel, given their unfortunate experience in the war with Ukraine? This axis is becoming stronger; they may share not just technology, but knowledge as well.
Difficult to argue against your position Phillips, though some have tried. Here’s my two pennies.
1. Israel was attacked by Hamas in October and almost immediately there were two US Carrier Strike Groups plus one Ohio Class SSGN sitting off Tel Aviv to provide support. As soon as Russia started its exercises back in January 2022, the US and NATO allies could have sent a task force on a freedom of navigation exercise through the Bosporus into the Black Sea for a Navel Exercise off Odesa. Plus a combined operations force comprising the 82nd Airborne, US Marines, UK Royal Marines and 16 Air Assault Brigade to do some land exercises. Of course this did not happen because we have forgotten how to do deterrence!
2. After the Russian full scale invasion in 2022, I remember Boris Johnston was in Poland speaking to some Ukrainians refugees and there was a reporter there who asked Boris about a no fly zone. He nearly crapped himself but I think he was genuinely ashamed that he had to show such timidly to avoid the dreaded escalation that every western leader feared. He seemed to grow a pair after that and so the UK acted as a leader for a while in sending weapon systems to Ukraine before other countries to test the so called Russian red lines, which in reality are a pale shade of pink.
3. Imagine how Ukrainians living in Odesa, Kharkiv, Kyiv, or any other city attacked by Russian cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and Shaheed drones night after night when the west have supplied an meagre amount of air defence equipment and won’t countenance boots on the ground or airplanes in the sky, only to see the US, UK and Jordan fall over themselves to help Israel in its hour of need.
4. Not in anyway condemning the western support for Israel. The enemies of Israel are part of the same axis of evil that is fighting Ukraine now and threatening world peace. Just saying that it exposes in a stark contrast the lack of support we’ve given to Ukraine for two years.
Excellent post Phillips and, as usual, outstanding comments.
The comment by LCB about Israel’s retaliation against Iran causing mass destruction of their missile/drone production capabilities stands out. That outcome would assist Ukraine greatly and harm Russia. Please make it happen.