Putin has bought into his own infallibility and thinking the west would always cave. There is blood in the water, and now everybody smells it. China cannot object to Ukraine getting what it needs to end the war as this is bad for business, and allows China to make Russia a vassal state, de facto. Arab League even recognizes this, why else would they invite Zelensky? Now everybody wants to be on the winning side and no longer fears Putin and Russia seeing how incapable and incompetent they truly are.
It would be interesting to know how much the Biden team was focused on creating the genuine view that the EU countries were driving the new weaponry allocation decisions. If true, while it makes the US look too passive, it reduces the perception that this is a US versus Russia conflict. Such a superpower head butting perception would feed the China / Russia cooperation desire and likely weaken the resolve of the other involved nations.
In other words, the US created a vacuum that drew the EU nations into the desired leadership role. And the fact that Ukraine is getting what it’s asking for without significant Chinese/Russian reactions suggests it has worked, albeit not as rapidly as one might wish.
If the above perspective is accurate I think the Biden administration deserves major kudos.
I'm not sure that the F-16s won't be available for the summer offensive. Reasoning is this:
1. It wouldn't surprise me that various nations have quietly been training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s already as they pushed to get the formal sign-off.
2. The Dutch and Danish seem to be ready to transfer F-16s sooner rather than later
3. The Ukrainian's showing adept at operating NATO equipment that 4 months is probably pessimistic.
UK, Dutch and Danish seem to have a plan that involved Storm Shadow and F-16s that they put into action a month or so back. The Storm Shadows arrived in Ukraine before the official announcement so doing training (albeit probably simulator training) of pilots for the last month or so would also fit.
It did seem that Ukraine was going to launch the offensive in Spring but then it seemed the plans changed. Which would fit with a Storm Shadow and F-16 deal being presented to them. Now waiting a few extra months gets them more Storm Shadows and F-16s to make the offensive even more potent.
It would seem in the diplomatic/international relations sphere Zelensky is kicking Russian butt even more comprehenisvley than what the Ukrainian Armed Forces are doing to the Russian army. Not to put to fine a point on it the Russians are being beaten comprehensively in all departments
I think that the people in Washington have been making fairly sound judgments given circumstances. I wish they'd agreed to F-16s a few months earlier, to accommodate the counteroffensive, but as I see it, changes in the *political* landscape have made possible a change in the strategy to supply weapons.
-- First, and most important, Ukraine survived the initial onslaught. The Biden Admin should get credit for pumping in something like $2-$3B of Javelins, Stingers, and small arms in a fairly should time frame even while dealing with the pandemic and an attempted overthrow of the US government.
--Second, NATO revived. The US alone could not have helped Ukraine survive after the Battle of Kyiv. Substantial assistance--including crucial aid to civilians-- came from the NATO countries.
--Third, an even higher priority for Ukraine than aircraft has been air defense. It's shocking to me that there are still only three Patriot batteries in Ukraine. F-16s could have been part of that air defense, but am I not correct in thinking GBAD is cheaper? Cost is a consideration when facing a hostile Congress. Further, as Ukraine moves now from defense to offense, F-16s will operate a lot better if they have a good air defense to back them up.
--Fourth, Ukraine has had to absorb a lot of different weapons systems with their logistics and supply chains. While they have done brilliantly, there are limits and planners have to consider those as well.
-- Fifth, Russian capabilities have shifted and somewhat improved. Early in the war, the Russian air force was not much of a factor because Ukraine had SAMs. Now as SAMs run low, GBAD has not replaced the deficit, Russia has started to use JDAM equivalents, and Ukraine is moving from primarily defense to offense, there's a gap that F-16s could fill. But the gap has appeared relatively recently.
--Sixth, China's decision not to openly support Russia is very helpful. While I would bet they are providing covert aid, especially through North Korea, it's clearly limited. Had the West intervened more directly, China might have intervened more directly as well.
--Seventh, the US has to be prepared for hostile action toward Taiwan. It has to be careful to preserve naval and air defenses. While I don't think that a dozen or two F-16s are critical to that effort, the delay has allowed the US to step up manufacturing, get some supplies to Taiwan, and otherwise deter having a second conflict open up while the first is unresolved.
--Finally, the fact that Russia has run through much of its missile stock makes it harder for them to attack airfields. So an opening has been created.
It is horribly frustrating to see cities leveled, children kidnapped, civilians slaughtered and terrorized, and the Ukrainians fighting with limited weaponry. Everything in us screams to just get it over with. But I think that we have to acknowledge that conditions have changed over the last 15 months, and that decision-makers had valid reasons to deliver weapons as they saw a need and a capability on the part of Ukraine.
----
As a footnote, I also suspect that there are reasons that US decision-makers want to ensure that nothing traveling really fast heads on a trajectory toward Moscow. It is not far from Ukraine to Moscow, and an error on the part of Russian air defense could have really, really bad consequences. Let's just be glad that Ukraine is winning, and that there hasn't been a further breakdown in the world order.
I wonder how much of this news reaches the average Russian person, and specifically their soldiers. Do the guys in the trenches know they're on a timer until Ukraine has a modern airforce? I can't imagine that would be very good for morale if they do.
Many thanks for putting the F-16 turnaround into perspective. While I agree that this brings Ukraine one step closer to NATO standards and NATO membership, it’s not yet a done deal. The pressure from many European countries is clear and you cover that comprehensively, but I wonder about the views of France and Germany, which you don’t mention at all. Back in 2008, at the Bucharest summit of NATO, Ukraine’s application for membership was opposed by these two important European powers. How has their position evolved and will it be different at the NATO summit in Vilnius?
France has moved a lot under Macron: from trying desperately at the outset to persuade Putin not to invade and then stating that Russia needed “security guarantees”, he now looks to be backing Ukraine fully. He seems to have played a major role in persuading his G7 partners as well as Brazil and India and the Arab League to give Zelensky à face to face hearing and even provided a French government aircraft to fly him there and back.
But will this solid support extend to approving an application for NATO membership? And what about Germany ? Scholz has also evolved, almost as slowly as Biden, in the provision of weapons but remains pretty silent on F-16s and future NATO membership. The next few weeks, with Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the offing and preparations in full swing for the Vilnius summit, are likely to be decisive.
When the pilots are trained, the Russian air force has been shot out of the skies, and Russian skies are filled with F16s making a statement, then this was the end of the beginning.
The question I'm thinking about at this point is: If Ukraine knows that it can be flying 1-3 dozen F-16s in theatre in 11-12 weeks, how should that change its counteroffensive plans in the nearer term, if at all? My guess would be to focus on pinning and degrading Russian forces in the Northeast while attacking logistics elsewhere in preparation for isolating Crimea just before introduction of the F-16s. That could mean delaying major ground offensive operations until the beginning of July.
I'm pretty sure that the difference that the F-16s will make will depend heavily on how many acres of mine fields they can clear, how many rivers they can ford, how many missiles they can down, how many battalions they can shroud from Russian ISR, how many factories they can rebuild, how many tonnes of food they can export, how many KW of electricity they can produce, how many working-age people they can bring back from the West, how many 330V transformers they can replace, how many train-tracks they can repair and I'm sure all sorts of stuff that you found important in your 'How The War Was Won' book.
The Russians and their horrible apologists are gloating on many pages of many news organisations that Bakhmut ‘has fallen’. Should this at least temper our hopes?
Putin has bought into his own infallibility and thinking the west would always cave. There is blood in the water, and now everybody smells it. China cannot object to Ukraine getting what it needs to end the war as this is bad for business, and allows China to make Russia a vassal state, de facto. Arab League even recognizes this, why else would they invite Zelensky? Now everybody wants to be on the winning side and no longer fears Putin and Russia seeing how incapable and incompetent they truly are.
It would be interesting to know how much the Biden team was focused on creating the genuine view that the EU countries were driving the new weaponry allocation decisions. If true, while it makes the US look too passive, it reduces the perception that this is a US versus Russia conflict. Such a superpower head butting perception would feed the China / Russia cooperation desire and likely weaken the resolve of the other involved nations.
In other words, the US created a vacuum that drew the EU nations into the desired leadership role. And the fact that Ukraine is getting what it’s asking for without significant Chinese/Russian reactions suggests it has worked, albeit not as rapidly as one might wish.
If the above perspective is accurate I think the Biden administration deserves major kudos.
I'm not sure that the F-16s won't be available for the summer offensive. Reasoning is this:
1. It wouldn't surprise me that various nations have quietly been training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s already as they pushed to get the formal sign-off.
2. The Dutch and Danish seem to be ready to transfer F-16s sooner rather than later
3. The Ukrainian's showing adept at operating NATO equipment that 4 months is probably pessimistic.
UK, Dutch and Danish seem to have a plan that involved Storm Shadow and F-16s that they put into action a month or so back. The Storm Shadows arrived in Ukraine before the official announcement so doing training (albeit probably simulator training) of pilots for the last month or so would also fit.
It did seem that Ukraine was going to launch the offensive in Spring but then it seemed the plans changed. Which would fit with a Storm Shadow and F-16 deal being presented to them. Now waiting a few extra months gets them more Storm Shadows and F-16s to make the offensive even more potent.
It would seem in the diplomatic/international relations sphere Zelensky is kicking Russian butt even more comprehenisvley than what the Ukrainian Armed Forces are doing to the Russian army. Not to put to fine a point on it the Russians are being beaten comprehensively in all departments
I think that the people in Washington have been making fairly sound judgments given circumstances. I wish they'd agreed to F-16s a few months earlier, to accommodate the counteroffensive, but as I see it, changes in the *political* landscape have made possible a change in the strategy to supply weapons.
-- First, and most important, Ukraine survived the initial onslaught. The Biden Admin should get credit for pumping in something like $2-$3B of Javelins, Stingers, and small arms in a fairly should time frame even while dealing with the pandemic and an attempted overthrow of the US government.
--Second, NATO revived. The US alone could not have helped Ukraine survive after the Battle of Kyiv. Substantial assistance--including crucial aid to civilians-- came from the NATO countries.
--Third, an even higher priority for Ukraine than aircraft has been air defense. It's shocking to me that there are still only three Patriot batteries in Ukraine. F-16s could have been part of that air defense, but am I not correct in thinking GBAD is cheaper? Cost is a consideration when facing a hostile Congress. Further, as Ukraine moves now from defense to offense, F-16s will operate a lot better if they have a good air defense to back them up.
--Fourth, Ukraine has had to absorb a lot of different weapons systems with their logistics and supply chains. While they have done brilliantly, there are limits and planners have to consider those as well.
-- Fifth, Russian capabilities have shifted and somewhat improved. Early in the war, the Russian air force was not much of a factor because Ukraine had SAMs. Now as SAMs run low, GBAD has not replaced the deficit, Russia has started to use JDAM equivalents, and Ukraine is moving from primarily defense to offense, there's a gap that F-16s could fill. But the gap has appeared relatively recently.
--Sixth, China's decision not to openly support Russia is very helpful. While I would bet they are providing covert aid, especially through North Korea, it's clearly limited. Had the West intervened more directly, China might have intervened more directly as well.
--Seventh, the US has to be prepared for hostile action toward Taiwan. It has to be careful to preserve naval and air defenses. While I don't think that a dozen or two F-16s are critical to that effort, the delay has allowed the US to step up manufacturing, get some supplies to Taiwan, and otherwise deter having a second conflict open up while the first is unresolved.
--Finally, the fact that Russia has run through much of its missile stock makes it harder for them to attack airfields. So an opening has been created.
It is horribly frustrating to see cities leveled, children kidnapped, civilians slaughtered and terrorized, and the Ukrainians fighting with limited weaponry. Everything in us screams to just get it over with. But I think that we have to acknowledge that conditions have changed over the last 15 months, and that decision-makers had valid reasons to deliver weapons as they saw a need and a capability on the part of Ukraine.
----
As a footnote, I also suspect that there are reasons that US decision-makers want to ensure that nothing traveling really fast heads on a trajectory toward Moscow. It is not far from Ukraine to Moscow, and an error on the part of Russian air defense could have really, really bad consequences. Let's just be glad that Ukraine is winning, and that there hasn't been a further breakdown in the world order.
Aside note: Colin Kahl left his job as Undersecretary of Defense this week. Interesting that he was the principal opponent to F-16s to Ukraine.
I wonder how much of this news reaches the average Russian person, and specifically their soldiers. Do the guys in the trenches know they're on a timer until Ukraine has a modern airforce? I can't imagine that would be very good for morale if they do.
Many thanks for putting the F-16 turnaround into perspective. While I agree that this brings Ukraine one step closer to NATO standards and NATO membership, it’s not yet a done deal. The pressure from many European countries is clear and you cover that comprehensively, but I wonder about the views of France and Germany, which you don’t mention at all. Back in 2008, at the Bucharest summit of NATO, Ukraine’s application for membership was opposed by these two important European powers. How has their position evolved and will it be different at the NATO summit in Vilnius?
France has moved a lot under Macron: from trying desperately at the outset to persuade Putin not to invade and then stating that Russia needed “security guarantees”, he now looks to be backing Ukraine fully. He seems to have played a major role in persuading his G7 partners as well as Brazil and India and the Arab League to give Zelensky à face to face hearing and even provided a French government aircraft to fly him there and back.
But will this solid support extend to approving an application for NATO membership? And what about Germany ? Scholz has also evolved, almost as slowly as Biden, in the provision of weapons but remains pretty silent on F-16s and future NATO membership. The next few weeks, with Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the offing and preparations in full swing for the Vilnius summit, are likely to be decisive.
Hard war now with all the weapons to win quickly in UKR hands makes peace easier later.
If Bakhmut has’fallen’ then wagner has fallen into the trap. Encirclement approaches...
When the pilots are trained, the Russian air force has been shot out of the skies, and Russian skies are filled with F16s making a statement, then this was the end of the beginning.
The question I'm thinking about at this point is: If Ukraine knows that it can be flying 1-3 dozen F-16s in theatre in 11-12 weeks, how should that change its counteroffensive plans in the nearer term, if at all? My guess would be to focus on pinning and degrading Russian forces in the Northeast while attacking logistics elsewhere in preparation for isolating Crimea just before introduction of the F-16s. That could mean delaying major ground offensive operations until the beginning of July.
Just a thought.
I'm pretty sure that the difference that the F-16s will make will depend heavily on how many acres of mine fields they can clear, how many rivers they can ford, how many missiles they can down, how many battalions they can shroud from Russian ISR, how many factories they can rebuild, how many tonnes of food they can export, how many KW of electricity they can produce, how many working-age people they can bring back from the West, how many 330V transformers they can replace, how many train-tracks they can repair and I'm sure all sorts of stuff that you found important in your 'How The War Was Won' book.
.
The Russians and their horrible apologists are gloating on many pages of many news organisations that Bakhmut ‘has fallen’. Should this at least temper our hopes?