I think of the Norwegian Kings’ chronicles (Heimskringla) written by Icelander Snorre Sturlasson sometime around year 1230. What he had for historical sources was mostly the writings of kings’ court poets (mostly Icelandic skalds), who were paid handsomely to spin poetic propaganda about the (war) bravery of their royal employers.
When discussing the sources’ credibility in his foreword, Snorre claims that any jester praising a king for deeds he had not done would correspond to mocking the king in public. No skald would ever dare mocking the king. Thus the Skaldic praise poems had to be (mostly) true.
If Snorre's skalds told as little truth as the media today reporting about Trump? Then Snorre's conclusion was dead wrong. One of the consequences of power and influence is the tendency to overrate one's contributions to same. Of course, there is the possibility that you presented Snorre's story with tongue in cheek. If that is the case - well, you are too subtle for me, then!
Snorre was a skald himself, so we should probably take his "assumption" as tongue-in-cheek, him being a personal friend/ skald of both King Haakon and Earl Skule of Norway. There is not just the "ordinary" Kings hyperbole in Heimskringla, but also stories about sorcery, Jesus-like healing powers, trolls and more (ordinary stories in their time).
BTW Snorre actually ended up mocking King Haakon by crossing his personal ban on leaving Norway for Iceland. That lead the King to order his extradition to Norway, or his death. His countrymen probably had enough of Snorres power plays on Iceland, and finished him at his own farm, the year 1241.
Excellent summary and recommendations of how to deal with someone like Trump
For me, people should always remember that the narcissist is never as strong as they project, and that you are often much stronger in important ways. You can act confidently and intelligently to disarm a narcissist, without provoking them into an overreaction, or indeed reinforcing their perceived superiority
Many thanks for this update and the reference to the Jones/McCabe report. It is gratifying to read in a serious report of this kind that Russia is defined as "a declining power". Something that most of us in this community have known for some time but that is not yet widely accepted in official circles, rather the contrary.
The crucial question, given Russia's unprecedented losses in this campaign, is how much longer it can go on fighting. Interestingly, the CSIS reports avoids make any predictions and ends with these words: "Without greater pain, Putin will drag the talks out and keep fighting—even if it means millions of Russian and Ukrainian casualties".
Mick Ryan, who seems to have had some input into this report, writes in his latest update that Putin will go on talking and fighting, simply because he can't countenance any other option. Especially if no "greater pain is inflicted", at least by the US, which seems self-evident.
The conclusion: the onus must be on the "coalition of the willing" (i.e Europe, EU and non EU plus Canada) to defy Trump and continue to help Ukraine ramp up the pressure on Russia until its military and financial resources run out.
Hopefully by the end of 2026, Trump will quietly remove the photo of himself and Putin in the White House !
Putin's ace in the hole is China and the USA. The US is now protecting him and China is supplying him, and this will extend his declining power further. However, even then, if European powers really wanted to help Ukraine, the Ukrainians could achieve a solid victory. That will be in part 2 of my victory piece, to be released later in the week.
I suspect that China will turn out to be a wildcard and not an ace in the near medium term.
As Europe, Canada etc all pivot towards China why bother to keep supporting Russia, that has an economy about the size of Italy and 8x smaller than the EU27 combined, not even counting UK, CA and anyone else pivoting away from the USA?
Stab Russia in the back in late 2026, and then in Spring 2027 take Mongolia, seize control of the Irkutsk to Vladivostok rail line, put the squeeze on Vladivostok by rail and sea (and via economic levers) and then just... wait.
Russian losses and territorial gains compared to the British debacle that was the Battle of the Somme is quite the comparator! That is not just malevolent incompetence but that takes a conscious effort to continue to act so stupidly.
On the economic front, Russia has been so hollowed out by corruption an a fatal dependence on exporting oil and gas this it is not shocking the economy is tanking. With every shadow fleet tanker stopped, every Ukrainian strike on refineries and pipelines, it gets worse and worse. Oh, and what has happened to world oil markets? KSA and others are easily filling the need and then some killing the export value of every barrel.
Agree with the Somme comparison--it was very effective. Russia's economy is so vulnerable that if the US and Europe really wanted to hammer it, they could. However both seem too reluctant.
On 1st July 1916, the British artillery barrage ended at 0725 and the men went over the top at 0730. They here ordered to walk rather than run (owing to command believing that volunteers and conscripts were considered incapable) and no phased infantry movement to provide covering fire.
The gap between barrage and over the top allowed the Germans to move out of protective cover and set up their machine guns.
You would think that by now we would be inured to the disgraceful actions taken by the Trump regime, especially with regards to the Trump/Putin relationship, but I, for one, am not. The nauseating spectacle of the Trump "cabinet meetings" and the abject obsequiousness displayed by his toadies is too much to watch (how can these people live with themselves?).
The revelation that Trump has placed a picture of Putin in the White House...the People's house (!)...is enraging, and should be front page news throughout the US. The fact that it's not simply shows how far compromised the billionaire-owned media has become.
The Russian "kompromat" on Trump, starting from his earliest trips to Moscow in the 1980's, has proved its weight in gold for Putin. This has to rank as the greatest KGB success (coup?) in history...and it's not played out yet. The fact that you still have people denying his complicity, if not outright traitorous behaviour, is astounding. We may never know just how much Trump has compromised US, and our allies' security. How much of NATO's inner workings have been passed on to the Russians by now? How many agents have been exposed?
The destruction of long-time alliances may be the worst of it all because that damage will last for years to come. Trump, hand in hand with Putin, has destroyed US hegemony, severely damaged its global and domestic economic strength, turned the global power structure upside down, and brought the American people face-to-face with fascism and potential civil war. A literal "Sturm und Drang". I am not a religious person, but if ever there was a case to be made for the Anti-Christ, Trump fits the bill.
It is true that the billionaire-owned media is under-playing the Trumpian outrages. But a bigger factor is that ppl are numbed by the volume of stories. The Putin picture hanging in White House is surreal and disgraceful, but we are somewhat inured to it by the earlier scenes of cartoon villain Putin walking down a red carpet in Alaska.
I think Americans are overwhelmed by our domestic transformation into a nascent police state. (At least the part of the population that isn't pleased by it.) ICE's behavior in Minnesota is actually worse than most ppl know. I heard report on Minneapolis hospitals. ICE is stalking hospitals because brown skinned ppl will leave their homes to visit very sick family members. People taken into custody by ICE are showing up in hospitals with injuries; beatings are routine.
Generally, Americans are turning away from Ukraine and all overseas issues.
Yes, the situation in Minneapolis is worse than is being reported. Intimidation of the press has had some success. Are Americans numb to what is happening? Yes, I think there is truth in that, but we cannot let that cause us to disengage. I'm sure that Ukrainians often feel that numbness, too. This is the time in the world when people must fight for the future, in every country. The world is inter-connected, for better or worse. We must all stand up to anti-democratic forces wherever they are.
With all due respect to the competent scholars behind the analysis, I just think that using a weak and weakening Russian economy as an argument for a potential Ukrainian victory is a bit misleading.
Russia has a stable and growing output of ballistic missiles, which they use for steadily destroying the Ukraine energy grid. Russia also has China as an ally, as Phillips himself has written many times over.
Satire warning: Russia could start pounding Baltic countries energy grids tomorrow, using Chinese ballistic missiles, and it would take at least a decade to zero the EU/ China trade deficit.
I agree when it comes to missile output. However you need to have a functioning economy on all levels to keep a war going. Russia is struggling domestically, and has been getting buy through selling oil and buying things. If the oil revenue could be hit dramatically, the spillover would be real.
You could argue that Ukraine would also need to have a functioning economy to wage their defensive war through 4 years of full scale war? Ukraine wartime economy is and has been completely dependent on US/ EU cash contributions, right? Why should or could not Russia be just as dependent on China, given that they choose to continue the war?
And it's impossible to have a functioning economy when all the smart young people have left the country, or are fertilising Ukrainian fields (another Somme reference).
What does the population pyramid of Russia even look like now in 2026?
From the article you have cited: "As George Orwell warned, "who controls the past controls the future." By erasing its demographic present, Russia imperils its future. Russia's people deserve better than to be erased from their own country's official record. The world deserves better than the instability that demographic denial inevitably brings."
Russia’s economic growth last year wasn’t great but it was no worse than Europe’s. If they can maintain their armaments output without significantly lowering the standard of living then they won’t be in a lot of trouble
China as an ally until about late 2026 is my crystal ball prediction and then all aid ceases leaving Putin high and dry. Then leave Russia to simmer for three months and then in Spring China moves north and annexes Mongolia and then further north into Siberia to take control of the rail network at Irkutsk or possibly Tayshet if they are feeling bold. This is "necessary to safeguard the security of the Chinese people and their strategic investment in the Belt and Road Initiative investment during this period of political and economic instability in Russia. This is, of course, only a temporary until such time that the conditions are restored for the greater prosperity of the Regions and the Chinese, Mongolian and Siberian people".
Whether they bother taking Vladivostok is an interesting question, but tbh why bother? If you control the rail network at multiple strategy points you control goods moving in and out and that's probably more than enough economic control. And if you want to emphasise the point park some SSN subs offshore and a small surface blockade fleet for the optics. China is already the major source of foreign direct investment into Vladivostok anyway, so they probably already own the key players who'd only be too happy to flip for more money if China can guarantee to keep Putin off their backs. Which they can.
I think my point is somewhat: we just do not know how far China is willing to reach, in order to keep the Ukraine war going. If China started building drone and missile plants in Russia, and started firing those weapons towards Ukraine, all with Chinese personnel, how would Europe react, and by which means?
On the topic of the Russian economy and its ability to sustain the war, it is often said that it is only the size of Italy' or Spain's. Making it hard to understand why the democracies together (even now without the US) cannot equip Ukraine enough to hold off or push back the Russians.
However, Mark Galeotti makes the claim that that is a false, nominal analysis. And that in reality it is much bigger once one looks at purchasing power parity. (He does though also say it is heavily stressed),
Though this could be turned on its head and say that the Russian economy is a resource extraction and selling entity, which is actually weaker than its GDP figures as it cannot make much of what it needs.
As for Galeotti, he is a paid lobbyist for Russian oligarchs. I do not believe he should be treated as a serious, impartial analyst.
PPP may be useful for comparing living standards. But hardly for comparing countries' power. A barbershop in Russia may be much cheaper than in the West and therefore surprisingly affordable to the Russians despite their low nominal incomes. That's what PPP means. However the Russian government will collect much less in taxes from the barbershop and thus will have far fewer nominal dollars to spend. All imports have to be paid for in nominal foreign currency, not in cheap haircuts. And while military pilots may be flying for much lower salaries, their main cost is actually the cost of fuel that it takes to maintain their skills in regular training flights - and fuel either needs to be imported or can be exported for dollars if produced domestically. Friends abroad (both countries and individuals) again want to be paid in cash (I'm sure Galeotti was not paid in haircuts and taxi rides). Finally, the importance of the country to foreign investors and exporters is determined by its nominal GDP, not PPP, since they want to get nominal cash out of it. If Russia were indeed the biggest economy in Europe (greater than even Germany!), as they like to brag based on their PPP GDP, it would be A LOT harder to impose tough sanctions and get so many Western companies to leave Russia.
Not making much of what you need is no sign of weakness. It's all about comparative advantage - trading what you can economically produce, for what you can't. Autarky is not efficient.
From his newspaper articles (and book Putin's Wars), I must say I'm surprised at your claim about Galeotti's lobbying. Is there evidence of this? I had the impression he is persona non-grata in Russia. And are the Russian oligarchs all that keen on Putin anyway, since the sanctions his war has attracted, must surely be cramping their style ?
From the first (non italics) para of the CSIS report:
"As one U.S. policymaker noted, Russia has the “upper hand. And they always did. They’re much bigger. They’re much stronger. . . . At some point, size will win.”"
Have the American "policy makers" learned nothing from Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan?
The US was hugely more powerful than their opponents, and yet failed to achieve anything like complete victory in any of these wars.
The authors barely need to have bothered with the rest of the report
I hope you have had an opportunity to listen to the latest Bulwark interview with Fiona Hill. She details all the irregularities in communications between Trump and Putin over the years.. The Anchorage meeting where they surprised everyone by jumping in the Beast together where no one else can listen, is typical. All of this begs many questions, besides the examples you have raised. How did the capture of Maduro, get approved by Putin? How is any action we take with Venezuelan oil arranged so that it will be to Putin's benefit, or at least limiting any damage to Russia? How is the US allowing work arounds for supposed sanctions? What about everything you mentioned about Ukraine, and the dismantling of NATO? How do they communicate to make all this happen?
Then there is the real question. How completely does Putin control Trump and how? Everything you have outlined suggests the control is near total. Every action this administration takes on the international stage serves Putin's interests. What is happening? Thank you for pursuing this.
Speaking of Fiona Hill, in her 2019 appearance before Congress prior to tRUMP's first impeachment, she testified that in 2019, the russians informally approached the U.S. with a proposal: "You have your Monroe doctrine. You want us out of your backyard. Well, you know, we have our own version of this. You're in our backyard in Ukraine." John Bolton, the National Security Advisor, dispatched Fiona Hill to tell the russians "Nyet". Venezuela and Greenland are different parts of a long term russian influence campaign and tRUMP fell for it:
Craig Unger researched the tRUMP/russia relationship that started in 1984, when a russia mobster paid tRUMP $6 million in cash to buy 5 condos in tRUMP Tower. Since 1984, tRUMP received billions of dollars from russian oligarchs and mobsters buying tRUMP real estate. Those sales bailed him out of 6 bankruptcies and $4 billion in debt from failing casinos and other ventures. Along the way, tRUMP also received other russian "favors", including an invitation in 1987 from the russian government to visit Moscow. The purpose: discuss a future "tRUMP Tower" in Moscow. tRUMP sees russians as friends and business associates, not enemies of the West. And tRUMP knows, he's expected to return the "favors" he's received:
Glad to hear that Come Back Alive got additional support as a result of your interview but you should also count the $200k (that was sent at the end of last year) as having been inspired by your urging Phillips.
What stood out to me in the CSIS Report was that in 2025, russia averaged 35,000 casualties a month and only seized 0.8% of Ukraine’s territory or 1,865 sq miles (4,831 sq km). Ukraine is a country of 233,013 sq miles and if this rate of advance continues, it will take russia over 100 years to conquer all of Ukraine. Another even more embarrassing point for russians: Jan 12, 2026 was the 1,418th day of russia's war against Ukraine, which is the same length of time as Nazi Germany's war against the Soviet Union (June 22 1941 to May 9 1945). Over 1,418 days of the "Great Patriotic War", the Red Army pushed the Nazis out of russia, captured Eastern Europe, and the Baltic nations and surrounded Berlin on the east, north and south. Clearly lil' putin's army is not his father's Red Army. But unlike Stalin, who won the war with U.S. aid, the U.S. has abandoned Ukraine.
I could not sit and watch that nauseating cabinet meeting. I am glad you have the stomach. These people put perverse lies on record like there is no tomorrow. But they are on record.
On Thursday, Jan 29, tRUMP said lil' putin promised not to attack Kyiv and other cities for a week but by Saturday, Jan 31, 5 people were killed and 19 were injured from russian attacks across Ukraine. On Feb 1, a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia was attacked injuring 6 people and russian drones killed 15 miners and injured 7 others outside the city of the city of Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk Region. The miners were on a bus, being transported from work. There never was a "ceasefire", just more "maskirovka" to create the illusion tRUMP and lil' putin are interested in peace while lil' putin terrorizes Ukraine:
Thanks, Mr. O'Brien. I put a link to the CSIS analysis of Russia's grinding war in a comment a few days ago on your site. It's of course far better that you take subscribers through it bit by bit.
I think of the Norwegian Kings’ chronicles (Heimskringla) written by Icelander Snorre Sturlasson sometime around year 1230. What he had for historical sources was mostly the writings of kings’ court poets (mostly Icelandic skalds), who were paid handsomely to spin poetic propaganda about the (war) bravery of their royal employers.
When discussing the sources’ credibility in his foreword, Snorre claims that any jester praising a king for deeds he had not done would correspond to mocking the king in public. No skald would ever dare mocking the king. Thus the Skaldic praise poems had to be (mostly) true.
Trump cannot be mocked--a sadly unexpected development for poor Snorre.
History rhymes, Phillips, all the times.
thank you for mentioning this, I found a copy in English
If Snorre's skalds told as little truth as the media today reporting about Trump? Then Snorre's conclusion was dead wrong. One of the consequences of power and influence is the tendency to overrate one's contributions to same. Of course, there is the possibility that you presented Snorre's story with tongue in cheek. If that is the case - well, you are too subtle for me, then!
Snorre was a skald himself, so we should probably take his "assumption" as tongue-in-cheek, him being a personal friend/ skald of both King Haakon and Earl Skule of Norway. There is not just the "ordinary" Kings hyperbole in Heimskringla, but also stories about sorcery, Jesus-like healing powers, trolls and more (ordinary stories in their time).
BTW Snorre actually ended up mocking King Haakon by crossing his personal ban on leaving Norway for Iceland. That lead the King to order his extradition to Norway, or his death. His countrymen probably had enough of Snorres power plays on Iceland, and finished him at his own farm, the year 1241.
Excellent infill, thank you!
The largest German security policy podcast was talking about this this week: https://gppi.net/2025/10/12/when-your-ally-turns-narcissistic - a potentially unifying grand theory of US politics under Trump.
Interesting, will have a listen.
„Sicherheitshalber“ is the name of the pod.
Excellent summary and recommendations of how to deal with someone like Trump
For me, people should always remember that the narcissist is never as strong as they project, and that you are often much stronger in important ways. You can act confidently and intelligently to disarm a narcissist, without provoking them into an overreaction, or indeed reinforcing their perceived superiority
Many thanks for this update and the reference to the Jones/McCabe report. It is gratifying to read in a serious report of this kind that Russia is defined as "a declining power". Something that most of us in this community have known for some time but that is not yet widely accepted in official circles, rather the contrary.
The crucial question, given Russia's unprecedented losses in this campaign, is how much longer it can go on fighting. Interestingly, the CSIS reports avoids make any predictions and ends with these words: "Without greater pain, Putin will drag the talks out and keep fighting—even if it means millions of Russian and Ukrainian casualties".
Mick Ryan, who seems to have had some input into this report, writes in his latest update that Putin will go on talking and fighting, simply because he can't countenance any other option. Especially if no "greater pain is inflicted", at least by the US, which seems self-evident.
The conclusion: the onus must be on the "coalition of the willing" (i.e Europe, EU and non EU plus Canada) to defy Trump and continue to help Ukraine ramp up the pressure on Russia until its military and financial resources run out.
Hopefully by the end of 2026, Trump will quietly remove the photo of himself and Putin in the White House !
Putin's ace in the hole is China and the USA. The US is now protecting him and China is supplying him, and this will extend his declining power further. However, even then, if European powers really wanted to help Ukraine, the Ukrainians could achieve a solid victory. That will be in part 2 of my victory piece, to be released later in the week.
I suspect that China will turn out to be a wildcard and not an ace in the near medium term.
As Europe, Canada etc all pivot towards China why bother to keep supporting Russia, that has an economy about the size of Italy and 8x smaller than the EU27 combined, not even counting UK, CA and anyone else pivoting away from the USA?
Stab Russia in the back in late 2026, and then in Spring 2027 take Mongolia, seize control of the Irkutsk to Vladivostok rail line, put the squeeze on Vladivostok by rail and sea (and via economic levers) and then just... wait.
Who can, or will, do anything in response?
Absolutely no-one.
Russian losses and territorial gains compared to the British debacle that was the Battle of the Somme is quite the comparator! That is not just malevolent incompetence but that takes a conscious effort to continue to act so stupidly.
On the economic front, Russia has been so hollowed out by corruption an a fatal dependence on exporting oil and gas this it is not shocking the economy is tanking. With every shadow fleet tanker stopped, every Ukrainian strike on refineries and pipelines, it gets worse and worse. Oh, and what has happened to world oil markets? KSA and others are easily filling the need and then some killing the export value of every barrel.
Agree with the Somme comparison--it was very effective. Russia's economy is so vulnerable that if the US and Europe really wanted to hammer it, they could. However both seem too reluctant.
On 1st July 1916, the British artillery barrage ended at 0725 and the men went over the top at 0730. They here ordered to walk rather than run (owing to command believing that volunteers and conscripts were considered incapable) and no phased infantry movement to provide covering fire.
The gap between barrage and over the top allowed the Germans to move out of protective cover and set up their machine guns.
Warning, this is a rant:
You would think that by now we would be inured to the disgraceful actions taken by the Trump regime, especially with regards to the Trump/Putin relationship, but I, for one, am not. The nauseating spectacle of the Trump "cabinet meetings" and the abject obsequiousness displayed by his toadies is too much to watch (how can these people live with themselves?).
The revelation that Trump has placed a picture of Putin in the White House...the People's house (!)...is enraging, and should be front page news throughout the US. The fact that it's not simply shows how far compromised the billionaire-owned media has become.
The Russian "kompromat" on Trump, starting from his earliest trips to Moscow in the 1980's, has proved its weight in gold for Putin. This has to rank as the greatest KGB success (coup?) in history...and it's not played out yet. The fact that you still have people denying his complicity, if not outright traitorous behaviour, is astounding. We may never know just how much Trump has compromised US, and our allies' security. How much of NATO's inner workings have been passed on to the Russians by now? How many agents have been exposed?
The destruction of long-time alliances may be the worst of it all because that damage will last for years to come. Trump, hand in hand with Putin, has destroyed US hegemony, severely damaged its global and domestic economic strength, turned the global power structure upside down, and brought the American people face-to-face with fascism and potential civil war. A literal "Sturm und Drang". I am not a religious person, but if ever there was a case to be made for the Anti-Christ, Trump fits the bill.
There, rant is over. Do I feel better now?
No.
It is true that the billionaire-owned media is under-playing the Trumpian outrages. But a bigger factor is that ppl are numbed by the volume of stories. The Putin picture hanging in White House is surreal and disgraceful, but we are somewhat inured to it by the earlier scenes of cartoon villain Putin walking down a red carpet in Alaska.
I think Americans are overwhelmed by our domestic transformation into a nascent police state. (At least the part of the population that isn't pleased by it.) ICE's behavior in Minnesota is actually worse than most ppl know. I heard report on Minneapolis hospitals. ICE is stalking hospitals because brown skinned ppl will leave their homes to visit very sick family members. People taken into custody by ICE are showing up in hospitals with injuries; beatings are routine.
Generally, Americans are turning away from Ukraine and all overseas issues.
Yes, the situation in Minneapolis is worse than is being reported. Intimidation of the press has had some success. Are Americans numb to what is happening? Yes, I think there is truth in that, but we cannot let that cause us to disengage. I'm sure that Ukrainians often feel that numbness, too. This is the time in the world when people must fight for the future, in every country. The world is inter-connected, for better or worse. We must all stand up to anti-democratic forces wherever they are.
BTW the account about Minneapolis hospitals came from Norm Ornstein, a guy not given to exaggeration
With all due respect to the competent scholars behind the analysis, I just think that using a weak and weakening Russian economy as an argument for a potential Ukrainian victory is a bit misleading.
Russia has a stable and growing output of ballistic missiles, which they use for steadily destroying the Ukraine energy grid. Russia also has China as an ally, as Phillips himself has written many times over.
Satire warning: Russia could start pounding Baltic countries energy grids tomorrow, using Chinese ballistic missiles, and it would take at least a decade to zero the EU/ China trade deficit.
I agree when it comes to missile output. However you need to have a functioning economy on all levels to keep a war going. Russia is struggling domestically, and has been getting buy through selling oil and buying things. If the oil revenue could be hit dramatically, the spillover would be real.
You could argue that Ukraine would also need to have a functioning economy to wage their defensive war through 4 years of full scale war? Ukraine wartime economy is and has been completely dependent on US/ EU cash contributions, right? Why should or could not Russia be just as dependent on China, given that they choose to continue the war?
And it's impossible to have a functioning economy when all the smart young people have left the country, or are fertilising Ukrainian fields (another Somme reference).
What does the population pyramid of Russia even look like now in 2026?
Hmmm a fascinating read!
https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/russias-demographic-vanishing-act-warning-history
From the article you have cited: "As George Orwell warned, "who controls the past controls the future." By erasing its demographic present, Russia imperils its future. Russia's people deserve better than to be erased from their own country's official record. The world deserves better than the instability that demographic denial inevitably brings."
"Marchons, marchons! Qu'un sang impur abreuve nos sillons!"
Good lord!
I'd never read the English translation of "La Marseillaise" before... It is *rather* bloodthirsty... 😳
Russia’s economic growth last year wasn’t great but it was no worse than Europe’s. If they can maintain their armaments output without significantly lowering the standard of living then they won’t be in a lot of trouble
China as an ally until about late 2026 is my crystal ball prediction and then all aid ceases leaving Putin high and dry. Then leave Russia to simmer for three months and then in Spring China moves north and annexes Mongolia and then further north into Siberia to take control of the rail network at Irkutsk or possibly Tayshet if they are feeling bold. This is "necessary to safeguard the security of the Chinese people and their strategic investment in the Belt and Road Initiative investment during this period of political and economic instability in Russia. This is, of course, only a temporary until such time that the conditions are restored for the greater prosperity of the Regions and the Chinese, Mongolian and Siberian people".
Whether they bother taking Vladivostok is an interesting question, but tbh why bother? If you control the rail network at multiple strategy points you control goods moving in and out and that's probably more than enough economic control. And if you want to emphasise the point park some SSN subs offshore and a small surface blockade fleet for the optics. China is already the major source of foreign direct investment into Vladivostok anyway, so they probably already own the key players who'd only be too happy to flip for more money if China can guarantee to keep Putin off their backs. Which they can.
Fun times ahead... 👀 🤔
I think my point is somewhat: we just do not know how far China is willing to reach, in order to keep the Ukraine war going. If China started building drone and missile plants in Russia, and started firing those weapons towards Ukraine, all with Chinese personnel, how would Europe react, and by which means?
On the topic of the Russian economy and its ability to sustain the war, it is often said that it is only the size of Italy' or Spain's. Making it hard to understand why the democracies together (even now without the US) cannot equip Ukraine enough to hold off or push back the Russians.
However, Mark Galeotti makes the claim that that is a false, nominal analysis. And that in reality it is much bigger once one looks at purchasing power parity. (He does though also say it is heavily stressed),
Though this could be turned on its head and say that the Russian economy is a resource extraction and selling entity, which is actually weaker than its GDP figures as it cannot make much of what it needs.
As for Galeotti, he is a paid lobbyist for Russian oligarchs. I do not believe he should be treated as a serious, impartial analyst.
PPP may be useful for comparing living standards. But hardly for comparing countries' power. A barbershop in Russia may be much cheaper than in the West and therefore surprisingly affordable to the Russians despite their low nominal incomes. That's what PPP means. However the Russian government will collect much less in taxes from the barbershop and thus will have far fewer nominal dollars to spend. All imports have to be paid for in nominal foreign currency, not in cheap haircuts. And while military pilots may be flying for much lower salaries, their main cost is actually the cost of fuel that it takes to maintain their skills in regular training flights - and fuel either needs to be imported or can be exported for dollars if produced domestically. Friends abroad (both countries and individuals) again want to be paid in cash (I'm sure Galeotti was not paid in haircuts and taxi rides). Finally, the importance of the country to foreign investors and exporters is determined by its nominal GDP, not PPP, since they want to get nominal cash out of it. If Russia were indeed the biggest economy in Europe (greater than even Germany!), as they like to brag based on their PPP GDP, it would be A LOT harder to impose tough sanctions and get so many Western companies to leave Russia.
Not making much of what you need is no sign of weakness. It's all about comparative advantage - trading what you can economically produce, for what you can't. Autarky is not efficient.
From his newspaper articles (and book Putin's Wars), I must say I'm surprised at your claim about Galeotti's lobbying. Is there evidence of this? I had the impression he is persona non-grata in Russia. And are the Russian oligarchs all that keen on Putin anyway, since the sanctions his war has attracted, must surely be cramping their style ?
If trump's lips are moving, he's lying. And his minions (witkoff, lil' Marco, etc.) lie and flatter him too. Believe nothing that comes from this WH.
From the first (non italics) para of the CSIS report:
"As one U.S. policymaker noted, Russia has the “upper hand. And they always did. They’re much bigger. They’re much stronger. . . . At some point, size will win.”"
Have the American "policy makers" learned nothing from Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan?
The US was hugely more powerful than their opponents, and yet failed to achieve anything like complete victory in any of these wars.
The authors barely need to have bothered with the rest of the report
I hope you have had an opportunity to listen to the latest Bulwark interview with Fiona Hill. She details all the irregularities in communications between Trump and Putin over the years.. The Anchorage meeting where they surprised everyone by jumping in the Beast together where no one else can listen, is typical. All of this begs many questions, besides the examples you have raised. How did the capture of Maduro, get approved by Putin? How is any action we take with Venezuelan oil arranged so that it will be to Putin's benefit, or at least limiting any damage to Russia? How is the US allowing work arounds for supposed sanctions? What about everything you mentioned about Ukraine, and the dismantling of NATO? How do they communicate to make all this happen?
Then there is the real question. How completely does Putin control Trump and how? Everything you have outlined suggests the control is near total. Every action this administration takes on the international stage serves Putin's interests. What is happening? Thank you for pursuing this.
Speaking of Fiona Hill, in her 2019 appearance before Congress prior to tRUMP's first impeachment, she testified that in 2019, the russians informally approached the U.S. with a proposal: "You have your Monroe doctrine. You want us out of your backyard. Well, you know, we have our own version of this. You're in our backyard in Ukraine." John Bolton, the National Security Advisor, dispatched Fiona Hill to tell the russians "Nyet". Venezuela and Greenland are different parts of a long term russian influence campaign and tRUMP fell for it:
https://america2.news/the-russian-roots-of-trumps-venezuela-and-greenland-operations/
Slava Ukraini!
I am concerned with the thought that "Trump fell for it" vs Trump is in on it. How does Putin so control him?
Craig Unger researched the tRUMP/russia relationship that started in 1984, when a russia mobster paid tRUMP $6 million in cash to buy 5 condos in tRUMP Tower. Since 1984, tRUMP received billions of dollars from russian oligarchs and mobsters buying tRUMP real estate. Those sales bailed him out of 6 bankruptcies and $4 billion in debt from failing casinos and other ventures. Along the way, tRUMP also received other russian "favors", including an invitation in 1987 from the russian government to visit Moscow. The purpose: discuss a future "tRUMP Tower" in Moscow. tRUMP sees russians as friends and business associates, not enemies of the West. And tRUMP knows, he's expected to return the "favors" he's received:
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/03/05/craig-unger-trump-wont-betray-putin-after-40-years-of-russian-money/
https://newrepublic.com/article/165553/donald-trump-everything-vladimir-putin-wished-russian-asset
Slava Ukraini!
Glad to hear that Come Back Alive got additional support as a result of your interview but you should also count the $200k (that was sent at the end of last year) as having been inspired by your urging Phillips.
What stood out to me in the CSIS Report was that in 2025, russia averaged 35,000 casualties a month and only seized 0.8% of Ukraine’s territory or 1,865 sq miles (4,831 sq km). Ukraine is a country of 233,013 sq miles and if this rate of advance continues, it will take russia over 100 years to conquer all of Ukraine. Another even more embarrassing point for russians: Jan 12, 2026 was the 1,418th day of russia's war against Ukraine, which is the same length of time as Nazi Germany's war against the Soviet Union (June 22 1941 to May 9 1945). Over 1,418 days of the "Great Patriotic War", the Red Army pushed the Nazis out of russia, captured Eastern Europe, and the Baltic nations and surrounded Berlin on the east, north and south. Clearly lil' putin's army is not his father's Red Army. But unlike Stalin, who won the war with U.S. aid, the U.S. has abandoned Ukraine.
Slava Ukraini!
https://united24media.com/latest-news/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-has-slowed-to-a-crawl-unseen-in-over-a-century-15412
https://united24media.com/latest-news/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-has-now-lasted-longer-than-nazi-germanys-war-against-the-soviet-union-14916
I could not sit and watch that nauseating cabinet meeting. I am glad you have the stomach. These people put perverse lies on record like there is no tomorrow. But they are on record.
Do you have an update on where Ukraine is with the cruise missile they were developing, I think it was code named "flamingo"?
On Thursday, Jan 29, tRUMP said lil' putin promised not to attack Kyiv and other cities for a week but by Saturday, Jan 31, 5 people were killed and 19 were injured from russian attacks across Ukraine. On Feb 1, a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia was attacked injuring 6 people and russian drones killed 15 miners and injured 7 others outside the city of the city of Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk Region. The miners were on a bus, being transported from work. There never was a "ceasefire", just more "maskirovka" to create the illusion tRUMP and lil' putin are interested in peace while lil' putin terrorizes Ukraine:
https://kyivindependent.com/at-least-5-killed-19-injured-in-russian-attacks-over-past-day/
Slava Ukraini!
Thanks, Mr. O'Brien. I put a link to the CSIS analysis of Russia's grinding war in a comment a few days ago on your site. It's of course far better that you take subscribers through it bit by bit.