Weekend Update #170: Russian Advances Are Slower Than The Battle Of The Somme

Trump And Putin Together, Different Examples

Hello All,

Thank you. You have saved Ukrainian lives. On Thursday I was sent Come Back Alive’s data from the donation link in my last weekend update. This was after the Substack Live with Taras Tymochko, during which he outlined Project Dronefall. This project is Come Back Alive’s successful attempt to create a Ukrainian drone force to shoot down Russian attack drones which are being used to terrorize Ukraine daily.

Phillips talks with Taras Tymochko of CBA

It turns out that in five days more than 740,000 Ukrainian Hryvnia had been donated to Project Dronefall directly from that link. That is more than $17,000, and this figure will have gone up since then. This is enough money at present costs to purchase approximately 10 of the advanced drone interceptors that Taras discussed. In the hands of an experienced pilot, these drone interceptors would normally be expected to destroy 5 Russian Shahed/Geran drones.

So, you have stopped up to five of these kinds of attacks from occurring.

This is what happens when a Russian Shahed/Geran hits a Ukrainian apartment building.

The people from Come Back Alive, including Taras and Mykola Bielieskov send you their thanks. We will be doing more of these interviews in the coming months. A few things are clear. First is that readers of this Substack want to help Ukraine tangibly and second is that you benefit from hearing about the more technical and advanced developments in the war. So we will not be afraid to get into the nitty gritty details about how CBA is saving Ukrainian lives.

Oh, and if you have not yet supported Project Dronefall and would like to, here is the link again.

Now the weekend update. First story will look at the latest report issued by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on the Russian performance in the Russo-Ukraine War. It is an extraordinarily important counter to the pro-Russian narrative you see many other places, including from the White House.

Also, this week there were two or three different examples (depends on how you want to count them) of just how close Trump and Putin are working in this war. One was one of the truly weird moments of the war. Trump promised the world that Putin had agreed to a form of ceasefire to not damage Ukraine too much during this period of cold. However the Russians continued on doing their damage as if nothing happened. Added to that, the Trump administration continues on protecting Putin by providing the Russian dictator cover through sham negotiations, which they tell the world are succeeding. I guess we can expect no less from an administration led by a man who keeps a picture of himself and Putin amongst his family photos.

Russian Advances Are Slower Than The Battle Of The Somme

First of all I need to offer a disclaimer. I am a non-resident Senior Associate of CSIS and I am proud to have that relationship. While many think-tanks in Washington and elsewhere have trimmed their colors shockingly to get in line with the Trump administration’s policies (which are weakening the USA terribly), CSIS has remained a bedrock of solid, dispassionate research. You can see that in one of their most recent reports, which is available for free download in its entirety here. Please do take a moment and get yourself a copy.

While far too many people, in the most senior of positions, accept Kremlin talking points about a super-powerful Russia and its inevitable victory over Ukraine (I also discussed this problem this week in my piece on a Victory Strategy for Ukraine), this report, written by Seth Jones, an excellent historian, and Riley McCabe, an up and coming research star, puts three key questions in perspective. They are Russian (and Ukrainian) losses, Russian gains in relation to these losses, and Russia’s economic and technological resources. For each they show that far from being a great power marching to victory, Russia is a “declining power” making tiny advances at a shockingly high cost.

Let me take you the three points so you can see how important this report is.

Russian Losses: Sometimes people talk about Russia losing 1.2 million soldiers (probably minimum estimate) and do not realize just how shocking this figure is historically. When compared to major power performance in the 20th and 21st centuries, the Russians are losing soldiers at an unprecedented clip. Here is one excerpt which puts these losses in some context.

These numbers are extraordinary. No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II.18 For example, U.S. battlefield casualty and fatality numbers are significantly lower, with the United States suffering 54,487 battle deaths during the Korean War, 47,434 deaths during the Vietnam War, 149 deaths during the 1990–1991 Gulf War, 2,465 deaths in Afghanistan during Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Freedom’s Sentinel, and 4,432 deaths in Iraq during Operation Iraqi Freedom.19 Russian casualties and fatalities are also remarkable from a historical Russian and Soviet perspective (see Appendix A). Russian battlefield fatalities in Ukraine are more than 17 times greater than Soviet fatalities in Afghanistan during the 1980s, 11 times greater than during Russia’s First and Second Chechen Wars in the 1990s and 2000s, respectively, and over five times greater than all Russian and Soviet wars combined since World War II.

Russian Gains: What the report then really hammers home is that such losses have been suffered for shockingly small gains (with some very effective graphics). Not only have the Russians gained little since the end of 2022, their loss to advance ratio has gotten to the point that it is arguably the worst in modern military history. It compares badly to British advances during Battle of the Somme, for instance, which are often historically described as horrific in battle losses for the land gained. Here is one chart that shows just how small the Russian advances in Ukraine have been historically (and note how as the war goes on, the advances get smaller and smaller in relative terms).

I particularly like the continuing reference to Chasiv Yar at the top. This battle has been going on for two years. However focus has left it because Russian advances have basically stopped and instead reporters and analysts talk about Pokrovsk and Kupiansk as there has been slightly more movement in these places. However take a look at Chasiv Yar. After two years of attacks and untold losses, the Russians have still not taken the whole town. Just to reinforce that, here is a map of the front line around Chasiv Yar today (down to a 2-kilometer map gauge).

And here is the same map 2 years and 1 month ago.

The front line in 761 days has moved maybe 8 kilometres. The Russian offensive to take Chasiv Yar might be the most self-harming in modern military history.

Russian Economic Strength: Having discussed high Russian casualties and low Russian gains, the paper then gets to one of the factors for such lack of success—the weakness of the Russian economy. In a nutshell, the Russian economy is simply not that strong and is struggling to support a winning war effort. It is burning through its cash reserves, its growth is stagnating, and it is not competitive in high tech. One chart shows after the original large spurt in economic growth brought about by the massive spending right after the full-scale invasion (entirely predictable) Russian growth has stalled badly (not predictable).

To have such anaemic growth in 2025 and 2026 (projected) shows just how the Russian economy is running on fumes.

You add these points up and it reinforces the point that the Russian war machine is underperforming and Ukraine can win. I know that might not be a shock to regular readers here, but it needs to be stressed and shared more widely. Hopefully this excellent report can help do that.

Trump And Putin Together, Different Examples

I often have one lead story in my weekend updates, followed by two shorter stories. However this week I thought I would have one other “lead” story made up of two or arguably three pieces of evidence. Though these stories were not reported together, they all reinforce the same argument and I believe actually work well as one. They are three different pieces of evidence about just how close Trump and Putin are (or at least just how close Trump wants to be with Putin).

Lets start with one of the smaller, but most telling, examples of just how much Donald Trump values his relationship with Vladimir Putin. This week a reporter took a picture from the Palm Room in the White House, and lo and behold what the President of the USA had chosen to hang in his home was a picture of himself and Putin during the Alaska Summit in August.

Here is same picture blown up.

Vladmir Putin is a war criminal, slaughtering Ukrainians and his own people, waging a subversion campaign against what used to be the USA’s European allies, and someone deeply distrusted by the American people. And yet the President of the USA wants to mark their close relationship by posting a picture of the two of them together very close to the Oval Office. For those who do not know, the Palm Room is a staging room for people who are often going to be shown into the Oval Office.

Moreover, the importance of the placement cannot be denied because the picture below it is Trump with one of his grandchildren (or so I was told). So this is an intimate space for Trump. We know how much he is obsessed with remaking the White House in his own image, and has taken pains to change everything from bathroom fittings to placing gold trim wherever he can. As such, a picture of himself with Putin would not have been placed there by accident. To him, Putin is a close associate, almost family. And at this point he does not seem to care who knows it.

To reinforce just how much Trump is out to work with Putin this week, there were two further political/diplomatic moments which showed just how much the US president is in thrall to the Russian dictator. They were both touched upon during this week’s televised Cabinet meetings from the White House. These are truly excruciating affairs during which members of Trump’s inner circle take turns praising him without restraint in front of the world, revealing their utter dependence on Trump. There were two particularly stellar examples of debased obsequiousness this week. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Trump that the seizing of Nicolas Maduro was one of the greatest military operations in “world history”, even outshining D-Day in World War II, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick saying that Trump was “fixing everything” in the country.

However it was this exchange between Trump and Steve Witkoff that revealed the most about Trump and Putin and how the USA is helping Russia. During the meeting, Trump asked Witkoff for an update about the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the conversation took an extraordinary turn.

“(Trump Speaking) Steve. Uh, Russia, Ukraine, been we've making a lot of progress. Could you explain that?

(Witkoff Speaking) The Ukrainians actually said that we've made more progress in the last -- since Geneva than they've seen in the last four years of that conflict. So, um, we had five Russian generals last Sunday in Abu Dhabi with Jared, I and Dan Driscoll. And we think we made a lot of progress. The talks will continue in about a week. But lots of good things happening between the counterparties discussing uh, the land deal and --[Inaudible] They are talking together. We have a security protocol agreement that's largely finished, a prosperity agreement that's largely -- largely finished. And I think the people of Ukraine are now hopeful and expectant that we're going to deliver a peace deal sometime soon.

(Trump Speaking) And because of the cold, extreme cold, they have the same that we do, uh, I personally asked President Putin not to fire on Kyiv and the cities and towns for a week during this. It's extraordinary. It's not just like cold, it's extraordinary cold, record setting cold, over there too, they're having the same. It's a big -- it's a big pile of bad weather, the worst. But it was really -- they said they've never experienced cold like that. And I personally asked President Putin not to fire into Kyiv and the various towns for a week, and he agreed to do that. And I have to tell you. I was very nice. A lot of people said don't waste the call. You're not going to get that. And he did it. And we're very happy that they did it…Because on top of everything else, that's not what they need is missiles coming into their towns and cities. So I just thought I should say it. I thought it was a very, very good thing and -- and Ukraine was -- they're struggling. Uh, almost didn't believe it, but they were very happy about it because they -- they are struggling badly.

(Witkoff Speaking) I think it shows, Mr. President, um, how you, uh, you provide an overarching, uh, sort of presence in these negotiations. The Ukrainians never thought it could happen. The Russians are doing things maybe that people wouldn't give them the credit for doing. And I think it's -- it always comes down to your indomitable spirit.”

The two things to take from this is that the USA is continuing to provide cover to Putin as he kills Ukrainians. The Ukrainians understand that they are being played by the USA, they are not hopeful that the Trump administration will get them a fair deal, and “lots of good things” are not happening under the Trump administration’s oversight. However, by maintaining this fiction, the administration keeps any attempt to sanction Russia off the table and helps discourage Europeans from intervening more forcefully for Ukraine. The US government is simply lying at this point to protect Putin while he attacks Ukrainian civilian life. Btw, the fiction continues right now. Witkoff just met with Kirill Dmitriev in Florida and released this positive statement. According to Witkoff, Russia is “working hard” for a peace deal.

Of course it is.

Added to the general attempt to pretend that Trump is bringing Putin to the table for peace is the specific extraordinary claim in the cabinet meeting that Putin agreed to spare “Kyiv and various towns for a week” from attack. Trump seemed incredibly proud of this achievement and went into it a few times. You can see him trying to tell the world, “ look Vladimir actually listens to me and did something I asked”.

Of course it was a claim of nonsense as well. It turned out that the break on attacking Kyiv and other cities (actually many Ukrainian cities were attacked this week) had almost already expired and coincided with one of Russia’s stockpiling phases for large strategic attacks. Russian production is limited enough that the Russians often need 10 days to two weeks to build up stockpiles of missiles (Kinzhals, Kalibrs, etc) to go along with the Shahed/Gerans for the truly large attacks. All Putin seems to have done is used such a stockpiling phase to say to Trump that he would not attack Kyiv—and Trump was so desperate to show he has some influence over Putin that he played it up as a great victory.

Actually, even this last week the Russians launched numerous attacks on Ukrainian non-combatants including an attack on a passenger train near Kharkiv that killed 5 civilians.

This was how the “nice” Putin reacted to Trump’s request. And btw, the stockpiling for the next mass attack seems almost over.

You might want to note that its been three and a half weeks since we were last assured that Trump supported a vote on the Graham-Blumenthal bill sanctioning Russia. Here we really see Trump’s “indomitable spirit” in action.

Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.