Weekend Update #141 and 142
The Bombardment of Ukrainian Cities—How Trump Has Already Helped Russia; The New York Times Embeds With The Waffen SS?
Weekend Update 142
Hi All,
A few people have accused me of being unkind to Trump in not recognizing the supposedly great support he gave to Ukraine this week. And yes, it does seem that a number of Patriot Anti-Air batteries are on their way to Ukraine (though no one can say exactly when they will get there and be operable). This is undoubtedly a good thing—and will save some Ukrainian lives (when they get there). Of course in the meantime, Putin has been given free rein to batter Ukrainian cities with everything he can, safe in the knowledge that the possibility of new US sanctions have been put off until September.
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So this news to me represents a very mixed bag by Trump—I struggle to see it as some clear US pivot to being a supporter of Ukraine. I see it as much as a case of one the one hand—and then on the other.
The final thing that people do not seem to get, that whatever US military equipment Ukraine will get is still not to help it win the war. The Trump “final” peace plan as outlined a few months ago remains, as far as we know, the ideal US end point. If so, Ukraine (and Europe) are still being prepared for calamity by the administration. Indeed, it could be argued that what we will see over the next 45 days is an attempt by the Russians, with Trump’s tacit support, to try compel Ukraine to take this bad deal.
No Trump Has Not “Given” Ukraine Anything: And Why That Matters
This was also the week that any prospect of Trump reviving the notion of direct US aid/support for Ukraine died. Remember, until this point the US, under Biden, provided US weapons to Ukraine as a form of military aid, free of charge, understanding that supporting Ukraine was in US interest.
We can safely say that the era of US direct aid for Ukraine is over. Now the US under Trump is treating the Ukraine conflict as a money-making prospect (in some ways playing both sides off each other). US Patriot batteries (and perhaps some other military aid—though its not clear what as of yet) will be provided to Ukraine sometime in the coming months, but they will have to be purchased by European states and then transferred to Ukraine. The US is giving nothing, it is making money off a desperate Ukraine and Europe.
You see why I have trouble getting too excited about this being a pivot to Ukraine—the fundamental policy change underlining all of this makes it worse for Ukraine/Europe.
Here was how Trump announced the change on Monday, according to the New York Post, one of Trump’s favored media sources.
So the USA will sell Patriot batteries to European states, make its pound of flesh off of Ukrainian desperation, and these batteries will make their way to Ukraine. At least there seems to be attempts to speed up the transfer (again its very difficult to know). Reports are that some Patriots that were supposed to go to Switzerland (that regular target of air attacks) are being re-routed to the Germans who will pay for them and then transfer them to Ukraine.
When they get there and are working, this will be a good thing.
At the same time, Trump could be said to have pivoted towards Putin when it came to sanctions. When reports started coming in that Trump was going to start helping Ukraine, new harsh sanctions on Russia were amongst the most common thing mentioned. These were primarily the very high penalties to be imposed on those outside of Russia who do business with Putin’s regime—so called secondary sanctions as outlined in the Graham-Blumenthal bill. Graham, last Sunday, sounded like he was expecting to get immediate approval from Trump to send the bill to a vote, saying on Meet The Press:
“(Blumenthal) and I have got 85 co-sponsors in the United States Senate for congressional sanctions with a sledgehammer available to President Trump to go after Putin’s economy and all those countries who prop up the Putin war machine,”
Well, that reality was actually put off for a considerable period by Trump. One of the first things Trump said on Monday was that there would be no new sanctions for 50 days—and so far we have no indication that Graham-Blumenthal is coming up for a vote. Here was the piece I wrote on that on Monday.
At the same time that sanctions were being put off, none of the other exciting things that were supposedly coming for Ukraine, such as JASSM cruise missiles, seem to be on their way. So if were to summarize the last week the following points seem most important:
The era of direct US military aid for Ukraine is over. Now the US will treat Ukraine as a source of profit.
Some Patriot batteries will be sold to Germany to make their way to Ukraine—hopefully in the near future (months most likely—maybe weeks in a few cases?).
There will be no new US sanctions on Putin until at least September, and no guarantee of any new sanctions then (Trump’s normal tactic is to talk tough on this, and then delay). So the Russians can continue their successful sanctions evasion without fear of new US moves.
As of now there are no indications of the US selling Ukraine offensive strike weapons such as JASSMs.
So, it seems to be what we have is a Trump plan that helps both sides in this war—and in the short term provides most of the benefits to Russia. Putin can continue his summer offensive on land and air free in the knowledge that no new sanctions will be coming.
Btw, the first point is also one that is extremely depressing to me. The US is in the process of walking back any interest in providing direct aid to democracies now (more on that later). Helping free people’s in their struggle because they are free is no longer a priority (or indeed a policy option). The US is now a money-making concern looking to benefit from the Ukraine war.
Forgive me for not celebrating.
A Summer Of Bombardment Awaits
Because Putin can basically do what he wants this summer free from the prospect of new US sanctions, Ukrainian cities are going to get pummelled. One are of Russian war production that has steadily risen is in ranged weapons, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and the ubiquitous Shaheds (which the Russians have upgraded from the original Iranian design).
And what we have seen over the previous months is the deadly result of this production increase—particularly when it comes to the Shaheds. This chart of steadily increasing Russian drone strikes has been assembled by the Kyiv Independent.
One of the reasons Trump supposedly was moving more towards Ukraine was that the Russians were using these systems mercilessly to bombard Ukrainians and kill/wound civilians. (This was said to have made Melania Trump really upset).
If Trump really was upset, he had an odd way of showing it. By taking sanctions off the table for the summer, he is basically saying to Putin to unleash the larger and larger attacks—which are surely on their way. The size of these attacks will almost certainly dwarf what we have seen.
We are getting close to a 1000-shahed raid now—and it would not be a surprise if one happened by the end of July. However that would just be a precursor. We might soon seen nightly attacks involving up to 2000 raids, according to German General Christian Freuding. Here is a Ukrainian summary of his statements.
The Russian army plans to launch up to 2,000 drones simultaneously against Ukraine, states German General Christian Freuding, head of the Ukraine Situational Center at the German Ministry of Defense.
According to the general, Moscow is actively expanding its production capacities to deploy drones en masse in the war against Ukraine. The simultaneous use of up to 2,000 drones could pose a serious challenge for Ukraine’s air defense system.
Btw, Patriots should not be used against Shahed. Each Patriot missile is far more expensive than each Shahed, its a loser to use them former to shoot down the latter. So it will be left to other Ukrainian systems to deal with these mass assaults.
I do not want to guess what the results of such massed attacks will be like—but you will probably see them soon. And Putin can undertake them safe in the knowledge that there will be no new move towards US sanctions in the near future.
The Russian "Finger" Advances Near Pokrovsk Show What The War Has Become
Sometimes maps can reveal a great deal. One thing that has been hard to show is just how the battlefield has become increasingly restricted to limited advances that cannot result in the breakthrough/exploitation military idea that was being force fed on the public before Feb 2022 (and for a while since). What we have now is what might be called, the short death rush—small advances on foot or motorcycle, as Russian forces rush forward in a narrow area, hope to grab a little bit of land and then hold on.
More and more, these Russian advances take the shape of small finger like protrusions—many of which have popped up around Pokrovsk, as enveloping that town seems now the main Russian preoccupation. Supposedly the Russians have massed around 160,000 troops near Pokrovsk, in their attempts to take the town.
Here was the most recent Russian advance (recorded last night) around Pokrovsk according to Deep State.
Here is another one from a week ago
These kinds of death rush, finger advances for a kilometer here and a kilometer there are what war is like at the present. And we will see more of them. Both of these fingers are put of an attempt to surround Pokrovsk from the north. Its just striking that you can see things like this so clearly.
Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.
Weekend Update 141
Hi All,
Well this week Trump got really, really mad at Vladimir Putin, and promised that this time he might take some extremely tough steps—and predictably people lost their minds by saying he had “changed” and now the USA under his command was now seriously going to come to Ukraine’s aid (after helping create the very difficult situation Ukraine is in now). The willingness, even pathological need, of some people to see Trump finally riding to Ukraine’s aid is one of the most remarkable examples of hope over experience that we have seen these days. These are often Trump supporters, who were extremely critical of the Biden Administration for limiting aid to Ukraine and claimed Trump would be better—and are now trying to face up to the fact that Trump has been far, far worse for Ukraine (and better for Putin) than they expected.
What this means is that all Trump has to do is raise an eyebrow, twitch a wrist, and they erupt in a chorus about how now everything will be different—and Trump is going to do the right thing.
Its all built on deceptions btw. Trump has already done massive damage to Ukraine and provided great aid to Russia. Not only has he refused to ask for Congress to agree any new aid for Ukraine, he has not sold any new weapons of value to Ukraine, and he has not brought in any new sanctions on Russia (which has helped the Russian avoid the present ones).
Trump has helped create the present terrible situation in the air over Ukraine, by protecting Russian industry as it ramps up production while limiting Ukrainian access to air defense. He bears a great responsibility as one of the actors that has made the war what it is for now.
Trump vs Biden: A Laughable Comparison
It was said this week that Trump, having earlier seen his administration claw back hundreds of millions of dollars of aid to Ukraine, might now pivot and provide Ukraine aid of up to $300 million (btw we have no confirmation of this—it was all anonymous and Trump has said he is making an announcement tomorrow). This kind of story has been used by some Trump/Ukraine supporters to claim (with almost no substance) that Trump is now moving away from Russia and towards Ukraine.
If a so-far mythical $300 million in aid (which btw would probably take months to arrive even if approved this week) is enough to cause people to say Trump is now pro-Ukraine—many, many apologies need to be extended to President Biden and his Administration.
Look, I was as critical as anyone about how the Biden Administration aided Ukraine. It seemed to me hesitant and far too deferential to Russia. However, compared to Donald Trump, Joe Biden was a lion in defense of Ukraine—and comparisons between them show how laughable the idea is that Trump is now a Ukraine supporter.
For instance, in the last two weeks, the Trump administration, scraping the bottom of the barrel, as part of its claw back of military support for Ukraine, kept 30 Patriot missiles from being delivered to Kyiv. Then, after the outcry worried Trump and he pivoted—he had ten of these missiles were reallocated to Ukraine. Ten whole missiles—hosannah!
I reached out to some people in the Biden Administration foreign policy world, and they saw this figure for the derisory move that it was. One source, who knows exactly the situation, said that in 2024 the Biden administration basically forced US partners to divert 700 Patriot missiles to Ukraine. What the Biden Administration did was decree that all countries that were supposed to receive Patriots of a certain type, would see their deliveries pushed back by one year, and the missiles they were supposed to receive were then allocated to Ukraine. This mass delivery has been vital.
And this is only a small amount of the massive amount of anti-air support that Biden funnelled to Ukraine in 2024. There were thousands of NASMs and Hawk interceptors, Sparrows and Sidewinders sent as well. Counting all anti-air systems that the Biden Administration is not now possible because we do not have access to the sources, but I was assured by this source that, numerically many “thousands, possibly tens of thousands” of units of anti-air ammunition were allocated to Ukraine in 2024 by Biden.
The monetary commitment of the US under Biden backs this up. While Trump supporters will probably lose their mind if Trump allocates $300 million to Ukraine (which might not even make up for all the aid he clawed back—much of which might never reach Ukraine), the Biden Administration secured Congressional approval and allocated almost $70 billion in military aid to Ukraine before it left office. It sent so much aid near the end, that it had not all been delivered (which allowed Trump to try and take it back). Indeed if Trump sends $300 million more to Ukraine—that will come from allocations that Biden secured. Trump has asked Congress for no more aid at all.
And Biden’s aid has really helped this year. One thing the Biden administration invested in was Ukraine’s UAV industry—to the tune of $2.3 billion over the last few years. This alone is 8 times the aid the Trump administration might now send (and which it still might not).
So it is laughable to compare what Biden has done for Ukraine and what Trump might do. Biden, for all his faults, oversaw an honest attempt to support Ukraine and funnelled billions and billions into the effort. Trump has so far only damaged Ukraine and helped Russia. If he makes a small pivot now, he cannot undo the damage he has already enacted.
Before I leave this segment—I think we also need to be clear on a few points. The Trump administration, and Trump himself, relies on bluster and misdirection so much—and almost never gives concrete facts and figures, that people have to rely on their imagination much of the time (which is what Trump wants.
But here are a few things to consider.
First: We still do not know if Trump was actually out of the loop with the first US move to claw back aid to Ukraine. When there was an outcry the White House claimed that he did not know anything—however he has made sure that those responsible for the move (Elbridge Colby and Pete Hegseth) are still in post—and indeed he has gone out of his way to praise Hegseth recently. If he was blindsided by the move, as the White House is trying to claim, he has an odd way of showing it by praising the architects of the plan. Btw, its just as likely that he knew what was going to happen (this is the second time the US has tried to cut all aid to Ukraine) and only pivoted after the fact. As long as Colby and Hegseth are still in post, that remains as plausible a reading as the one that Trump is trying to spin.
Second: There is no evidence that Ukraine will receive all, or even a majority of the aid that the Trump administration clawed back. As stated above, we know that Ukraine is down 20 Patriot missiles from expected allocation—and there has been no evidence that other clawed back anti-air systems are going to be returned—such as Stingers and Sparrows. Yes, US aid is now being redirected back, but we have no idea what percentage of the original allocation that will be. Unless the Trump administration is clear that “all” of what was allocated to Ukraine is being sent—Ukraine is and will continue to be weaker than it should have been because of this move. When Trump talks about sending “aid” to Ukraine—that needs to be put in perspective. If he wants to aid Ukraine, he can do so easily and make masses of money for the US economy, by selling weapons. Ukraine has said it is willing to pay for $50 billion in US weapons—and Trump so far has refused to sell (though he sells to many others). Its a perplexing decision—to say the least.
Third: Lets see real sanctions on Russia—and this means enforcement of the Graham/Blumenthal bill (if Trump allows it to have a vote). Every day now the USA is helping Russian war industry by refusing to put on new sanctions (there has not been a single new sanction since Biden left office). Trump has talked since January of imposing super-duper sanctions on Russia if Putin does not relent—but they never appear. No more talk—let the bill pass, and then enforce it. Anything else is a continuing delaying tactic while the US helps Russia.
The Bombardment of Ukrainian Cities—How Trump Has Already Helped Russia
I have talked about this so many times over the last 6 months that I’m sure I sound like a broken record to regular readers—but the fact is that the US under Trump has made the mass Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities far more bloody and destructive than they should be because he has been so stingy on air defense. This was all so predictable as said before and reiterated earlier this week in this (free) piece.
This week these attacks have reached historic levels. Each day a new record seems to be broken as the Russians attack Ukraine with more and more systems. And the attacks are spreading across Ukraine. On the evening of July 11-12, the Russians fired more than 600 Shaheds and more than two dozen cruise missiles at Ukraine—this time concentrating on the western part of the country and doing real damage to Lviv.
This comes hot on the heels of other mass attacks earlier in the week. On Wednesday night, for instance, the Russian fired about 400 Shaheds and 30 missiles at Ukraine (mostly Kyiv)—and a number got through the defensive screen and did real damage. This came a day after the Russians launched their largest attack of the war, with more than 700 shaheds and around 15 missiles.
This is in many ways the key campaign of the war right now. The Russian attacks seem designed to sap Ukrainian will and ability to wage war. If they can saturate Ukrainian air defense (which is running out of Patriots) they can assume more and more systems will hit their targets.
Future aid is of cold comfort as these attacks are ongoing. Ukraine needs to be supported in this fight now.
The New York Times Embeds With The Waffen SS?
Imagine if a New York Time reporters spent a week embedded with a Waffen SS Unit as it invaded the USSR in 1941, and then reported back about possible Soviet war crimes? Hard to imagine you might say—well maybe not as just a few hours ago the New York Times released the modern day equivalent in the Russo-Ukraine War.
The Times sent a reporter, Nanna Heitman, into the areas of Russia that Ukraine occupied in Kursk oblast in 2024—under the protection of Akhmat special forces. For those who do not know, the Akhmat special forces are a creation of Roman Kadyrov, Putin’s henchman murderous enforcer, who runs Chechnya as a personal fiefdom. Akhmat has also recently been said to be incorporating a large number of Wagner fighters—and Akhmat soldiers have been accused by the Ukrainians of committing war crimes.
The story itself is a rehash of the Putin view of the war. Russians blame NATO expansion for causing the war, say Russians and Ukrainians are really brothers (even as the Russians are bombarding Ukrainian cities at night) and make unsubstantiated claims that the Ukrainian committed war crimes in Ukraine.
Quite how the Times got to this stage of basically unfiltered expositions of Putin’s narratives is beyond me—but there we are. There was not a single mention of a Russian war crime in the piece, just possible Ukrainian ones.
Btw—the entire Russian invasion and thus this war, is a war crime under the UN charter—just in case you had your doubts.
Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.
What the NYT has done is not surprising at all. They are still proud of the Pulitzer they received for their Holodomor denial (very willful and deliberate) as it was happening in real time (and thus potentially could have been mitigated - if, say, public outrage had led to the end of US assistance with Soviet industrialization).
Phillips, we all need to understand that the orange child has no plan. None. Nada. Zip. The only thing trump understands is his own self interest and trying to hide his own insecurities. Putin and Russia have something…many somethings on the man. They are playing his insecurities and his need for constant attention to their advantage. In that sense, he looks and acts like a Russian agent because they have him pegged. I wish everybody else would see it for what it is. Trump loves the attention he gets each time he twitches or makes some incoherent announcement. And you are correct, he had to green light the cut off in aid, otherwise he would have taken vengeance on Hegseth and Colby.
In the end for orange Donny, it is all about “TV ratings” and feeding his bottomless ego to deflect from things that could seriously hurt him (Epstein files anybody??)
That makes what happens every night in Ukraine extra infuriating…people are dying to soothe the fragile ego of an increasingly demented and cruel man who views it all like a TV show.