Weekend Update #138: Do Not Forget About Ukraine

Putin Restates Maximalist Demands; A Ukrainian Victory Strategy; The Russian Summer Offensive: The Real Center Of Gravity?

Hi all,

This week Kyiv experienced the most deadly attack it had gone through for many months. On Tuesday evening Kyiv, and other places in Ukraine, were hit by one of the largest Russian ranged attacks of the entire war—involving 440 drones and 32 missiles. One drone, for instance, smashed into a Kyiv apartment block, causing many deaths. By the end of the next day, the death toll in Kyiv was up to 28 with more than 100 injured.

Ukrainians In the Aftermath Of The Kyiv Attacks

And yet the reporting about this attack came and went in a blink of an eye. There were no European interventions to try and protect Ukrainian civilians and Donald Trump did not even do one of his fake threats to sanction Putin. It was passed over as just another night in Ukraine—which is certainly now of secondary importance in coverage to what is going on between Israel and Iran (and now the USA). This is a tragedy.

Do Not Forget About Ukraine

The focus on Ukraine has fallen off a cliff in the last few weeks—and after Trump joined the war against Iran last night (note—boy was I wrong in thinking he would not attack, will write a piece on that for tomorrow) it might be downgraded from reporting for even longer. This is a tragedy as Ukraine is daily still fighting for its existence as an independent state and its cities are being attacked in a constant cycle. Moreover, the Ukrainians themselves are presented with a strategic reality in which their existence is obviously considered of secondary importance to that of other peoples—though arguably when it comes to Europe, Ukraine is fighting for the security of the whole continent.

Looking at things from a Ukrainian perspective, this has to be deeply troubling. They see European partners, for instance, being unwilling not only to shoot down Russian drones and missiles over Ukraine—but even unwilling to shoot down Russian missiles and drones that fly over their own country on the way to attack Ukraine. This cowardice in the face of Russian attacks stands in stark contrast, for instance, to what European states are willing to do for Israel. The UK, for instance, confirmed a few days ago that it was helping to shoot down Iranian drones. The French intercepted Iranian drones in attacks on Israel two months ago, and it seems that they have been requested to do so again now—though it is not clear that they have.

For years now, however, Russian drones that were part of the Russian attack against Ukraine have crossed into the airspace of European countries, and European states have done nothing to stop them. The reason for this seems to be the desperate desire of the Europeans not to get the US government, with its worries about escalation, upset.

For the Ukrainians, however, the differences that they can see about how they are being treated versus Israel, is hardly reassuring. There are great words spoken regularly about how Ukraine’s future is at the heart of Europe, and that Ukrainian independence is vital to the security of Europe—but right now what we can see is that protecting Ukraine and saving Ukrainian lives is not so great.

Do not think that is a small thing that the Ukrainians can simply look past.

As part of keeping the focus on Ukraine this week, I will do a new podcast with Mykola Bielieskov and I will publish an interview with former Ukrainian Minister of Defense Andriy Zagorodnyuk, who has just published a new article on a Ukrainian strategy for victory. The Ukrainians are still fighting for their lives and Europe’s future (and fighting remarkably effectively), even if its not being reported.

Putin Restates Maximalist Demands

For years its been said by those who looked to excuse the Russian invasion of Ukraine that Putin was had no intention of wiping out Ukraine, that he was provoked into this by NATO, that it was about Russian security, etc, etc. Its been a constant narrative, which is preposterous as Putin himself has regularly stated that he wanted to end Ukraine’s existence and incorporate Ukraine into Russia. Indeed for decades now Putin has basically denied Ukrainian independence and said he believed that the Ukrainians are fundamentally not a different people than the Russians—denying the Ukrainians the ability to define themselves.

A little over 24-hours ago he did it again—in a very striking and undeniable fashion. In an address to the St Petersburg International Economic Forum (which was also worthy of note because of some comments about the state of the Russian economy), Putin went out of his way to deny Ukrainian independence as a historical fact. He also, as he has done regularly, refused to admit that the Ukrainians are their own people. Amongst the quotes he gave were.

"I have said many times that I consider the Russian and Ukrainian peoples to be one people. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours,"

Moreover, he reasserted the Russian right of conquest to any part of Ukraine, not just the parts that have been illegally annexed.

"We have a saying… where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours."

So anytime you hear people argue that Putin was forced into this invasion, can be bought off with concessions and will be happy to allow for an independent and free Ukraine on his doorstep—you might direct them to his comments this week. He is out to end Ukraine’s existence.

The other interesting thing to come out of the St Petersburg Forum was the rather gloomy (and surprisingly open) discussion of the weakening state of the Russian economy. Though Putin himself put an upbeat face on the situation, others, including government ministers, were more pessimistic.

One, Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov, even warned, “We are on the brink of transitioning into recession.”

The key question seems to be the clash between the needs to battle inflation, which has been supercharged by military spending, and to keep borrowing costs from becoming too crippling. In a nutshell, wartime spending had flooded the Russian economy with capital (much of it from oil sales or the sovereign wealth fund—which is getting depleted), and that stoked extreme inflation. To combat that, borrowing costs had to be raised precipitously to 20% or over—which has made repaying loans a huge burden. Now the Russian economy seems to be slowing significantly, and its not clear how the government can mitigate that.

This struggle between super high interest rates and massive war spending will break at some point—the question is whether that is now (I’m not guessing). However, if the government cannot keep propping up the economy with new spending, a major recession could be on its way. And it is worthy of note, however, how openly this is now being discussed.

Sadly, the Russians also seem to be banking on Trump helping them out of their economic predicament. Kirill Dmitriev, President Putin's envoy on foreign investment, was quoted at St Petersburg saying: "I think the American administration understands that dialogue and joint cooperation is better than sanctions that do not work and hurt your businesses.”

Trump riding to the rescue of the Russian economy—hmm.

A Ukrainian Victory Strategy

One of the most cogent pieces on Ukrainian strategy that I have read in a long time was published this week by Andriy Zagorodnyuk. For those who do not know Andriy, he was actually Defense Minister of Ukraine for a year before the full-scale invasion (2019-2020), and he is a leader in the running of one of the best Ukrainian security think-tanks, the Center for Defense Strategies. In other words, he has a very strong grasp of the Ukrainian military and Ukrainian politics and I believe that his opinion should be taken very seriously (which is why I will publish an interview with him later this week).

The piece that he just published with the Carnegie Institute is entitled Ukraine’s New Theory of Victory Should be Strategic Neutralization.

its a strategy for Ukraine to cope without much, if any US support, and based around resources that should be obtainable from Ukraine’s European partners. It is also based on the idea that the war might not end, even with a weak truce. anytime soon. It judges that Putin might not shift from his maximalist demands, and as such Ukraine needs to adjust to this reality and as the war is going on Ukraine must be built up as a powerful and integral part of Europe.

I will include just part of one paragraph to give you an idea of what he means.

Victory for Ukraine may not come through peace negotiations or battlefield capitulation but through the construction of a resilient, secure, and thriving state under permanent threat. This means normalizing national life, rebuilding the economy, maintaining a viable defense posture, and ensuring that Russia’s attempts to disrupt Ukrainian sovereignty are strategically ineffective. It also means persuading allies to support Ukraine not just until peace but through a sustained period of resistance during which the war continues but Russia repeatedly fails to achieve its goals. In this light, Ukraine’s strategic objective would not be to end the war on ideal terms but to functionally nullify Russia’s war aims while building a successful nation under pressure.

Its a hard-nosed understanding of what Ukrainian faces, and its basically a strategy of defiance. Ukraine cannot allow Putin to dictate its future, but in fact to make a rejection of Putinism its modus operandi.

More on this later in the week—but please have a look at the piece.

The Russian Summer Offensive: The Real Center Of Gravity?

Russian advances if anything slowed this week from their already snail-like pace. We are now a week from July and the Russians have hardly advanced towards Pokrovsk (which was pronounced doomed last August) and the Ukrainians are still fighting in parts of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, etc. Even in the Sumy front, Russian advances were slowing. Here is the map last Saturday.

And here is the map right now.

In a week the line has not moved much at all.

There remains no sign that the Russians can do anything more than what we have seen—these small, bloody advances with no ability to create/exploit a breakthrough.

Indeed, the lack of progress even calls into question what is the real center of gravity of the Russian offensive. It seems that the attacks on Ukrainian morale and civilian willingness to continue the war are at least as important as these battlefield efforts—and we can expect Russia to try and keep hammering away at Ukrainian civilian life over the coming months. What they cannot do on the battlefield (defeat the Ukrainian military) they will have to try and do in other ways.

Another reason why the focus on Ukraine cannot be allowed to lift.

Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.