Even if Putin were right about the Russians and Ukrainians being one people, so what? There are five "Anglo-Saxon" countries, and nobody questions their right to independence (except for Trump briefly making noises about "51st state"). Then there are multiple German speaking, French speaking, Spanish speaking and Arabic speaking countries. If, say, the residents of Siberia overwhelmingly wanted to split from Russia and form their own country, would it really matter that they are the same Russians as in the European part of Russia? Putin's argument implies that Moscow rulers are entitled to rule the entire Russian people, so the only question is whether some foreigners are actually Russians. But why exactly does Moscow have a right to govern all Russian people?
And used as cannon fodder in the next war of conquest, aimed at restoring Moscow’s control of further still-defiant provinces of the empire of Eurasia.
You touch on a very interesting history. Scandinavian Vikings from roughly Norway and Denmark went west out in the Atlantic to the "British Isles" and Ireland as well as down the coast to France and eventually into the Mediterranean, while eastern Vikings, principally from Sweden, went down the north-south rivers of what became Muscovy to settle at the confluence of two major rivers in what became Kievan Rus.
As the legend goes, sometime in the 6th century 3 brothers and a sister began a settlement that because of its defensible location grew fairly quickly into a town named after one of the brothers, Kyy, the town eventually taking the name of Kyiv. The first written mention of Moscow was, depending on the source, in either the 9th or 12th century.
A case could be made that Muscovy belongs to Kievan Rus but my belief is that a better case could be made for Sweden owning the whole shot. All of this is actually moot because of the number and fluidity of tribes and the borders of various dukedoms (Lithuania, Poland and so forth) which had fairly massive if dubious territorial control.
No matter. It's now the 21st century and Putin remains the current Muscovite ruler, now of an empire which extends all the way to the Pacific. You'd think that would be enough, but apparently it isn't.
"Russia" actually means "Sweden" in Finnish. Well, not "Russia" but "Ruotsi". A millennium ago it was the same words, I believe the Finnish word "Rus" actually meant "oarsmen", as the Swedes were arriving by boat.
Yes, the Kievan Rus were originally founded by Vikings from Sweden, often called Varangians or Rus'. Historical sources like the Primary Chronicle describe how East Slavic and Finnic tribes invited Scandinavian Vikings, led by Rurik, to rule and bring order in the region around 862 AD. Rurik and his successors established the Rurikid dynasty, which ruled Kievan Rus for centuries.
Putin actually bored Tucker Carlson almost to death with a half hour lecture starting in 862 AD and then proceeding to some letters from 1654 incontrovertibly proving that Ukraine belongs to Russia (apparently he showed him the originals!).
For many centuries, the meaning of “all of Rus” has been “all the land that those who claim to rule Rus succeed in actually asserting control over”. Putin is actually part of a long historic tradition of imperialistic war criminals in that regard.
Russia's lack of clear geographical boundaries invites this kind of thinking. Where does Russia end and Poland begin? Where does the Ottoman Empire end and Russia begin?
In stark contrast, while the war is depleting Russia's economy, it's interesting to note how Ukraine, with its strong and creative engineering ecosystem, is emerging as a global leader in weapon manufacturing (notably UAV, USV and UGV but also cheaper and more effective missiles of all sorts). The knowledge and know-how gathered by defending themselves makes for the best marketing...
Ukraine wouldn't have to try very hard to have a brighter future than Russia with Putin at the helm. When this war is over someone is going to have to write an economic history of the war and what I expect to be Russia's unsuccessful efforts to defy the laws of economic gravity.
And the impact on the Russian economy will persist for decades (European demand / need / infrastructure to receive for Russian fossil fuels, history of Russian theft of foreign-owned property (remember the tens of billions in planes they tried to - and mostly did - seize), track record of not paying, under performance of Russian air weaponry, loss of 1-2% of the labor force with need for lifetime medical care for a majority).
Since Stalingrad is usually counted since about two months before the Germans actually approached the city, perhaps the official start of the Great Battle of Pokrovsk should be the Great Popasna Breakthrough.
I’m very happy to see a reminder to not forget about Ukraine. With the US abandoning them, we have to step up in everything we do and actively help them win.
On a personal level, my 3D printer is running 24/7 pumping out things for the Ukrainian DrukArmy, from training kits to drone launchers and much else. It isn’t much, but if enough people do it, it does add up.
It's interesting that Putin reacted to the bombing of his treaty ally the same way Republican politicians react to school shootings - by sending lots of thoughts and prayers.
Until relatively recently the Russians were attacking energy infrastructure rather than (or at least as well as) apartment blocks. Not any more, it seems. Conversely, Ukraine now seems to be very effective in targeting Russian military infrastructure (including energy) with few civilain casualties. I'd be interested in comments on this.
Its worth considering. There seems to be a halt on both sides against energy attacks--which might be a sign of an unspoken agreement in this area. The attacks now seem Russians against Ukrainian willingness to fight, and Ukraine against Russian military capacity
I agree with you completely. I deliberately sought out news about Russia and Ukraine, as the bombs were falling on Fordo. Even as an expat Israeli who sees Iran's Ayatollah regime as an existential threat to the country of my childhood, I see Ukraine's war as the critical conflict of our time. It is so painful for me to see America's abandonment. Thank you for your newsletter, I don't know what I'd do without it.
Given that Netanyahu is a genocidal maniac running an aggressive war against Syria and one against Lebanon and now one against Iran, I'm sure Ukraine sees the parallels to Vladimir Putin, and I'm sure they're not reassured by Western Europe's willingness to support one genocidal maniac.
But all Ukraine needs is money. Ukraine has the best military in the entire world, bar none, by any measure, as long as they can pay for the raw materials and pay the workers. I expect them to win.
And of course Ukraine has the leadership with the most geopolitical expertise in the world. Zelenskyy knows more about history and politics than the leaders of most of the world put together, and he demonstrated it in his TV show before being elected.
The Ukrainians are realists...they have to be. They knew with the election of Trump that further support from the US was problematic. After two months of this regime there was no longer doubt. The great opportunity to defeat Putin decisively was lost under the Biden administration with its "measured" military support. Fortunately for Ukraine she was given just enough time to develop a domestic war-fighting industrial base, aided now by German investment. Europe will continue to supply material and weapons to Ukraine, the most important being fighter aircraft. A war that could have seen a culmination last year, with proper support, will now grind on.
I recall reading some commentator (that it strikes me as usually informed but I can't recall the name) indicating that anyone talking about "Sky Shield" as a viable option really does not know what they are talking about. His major point was that there were have to be a lot of integration work with Ukrainian air defence systems so the jets did not get shot down. Okay...point taken but how about they do that then? Surely over 3.5 years that could be accomplished as they are clearly doing similar things ad hoc in Israel. Perhaps not a full Sky Shield but shoot down anything in range of the Western and over the Black Sea. Or how about something rather than nothing?
Have you received any feedback from your informed sources on this issue?
Granted. But surely they could shoot down drones at least that are within range of the Western borders? If they can do similar for Israel seemingly on demand - or have there been years of integration prep work for that?
My understanding is that there is concern in countries like Poland or Romania that intervening directly in Ukraine by actions such as shooting down Russian cruise missiles in range of their defensive systems would weaken their own article 5 protection. One can easily imagine Orban or Fico vetoing Nato collective response because of supposed prior provocation of Russia.
https://u24.gov.ua/sky-sentinel From United24[ Sky Sentinel is an advanced, Ukrainian-made turret that can eliminate air threats with high precision. It has been nicknamed the ‘Shahed Catcher,’ since Shahed drones are the Kremlin's favorite weapon of destruction.
But for Sky Sentinels, the sky's the limit: at optimal distances, they are capable of neutralizing Shaheds, smaller drones, or even cruise missiles.
If the target enters the turret’s range, it will be eliminated. Instantly and automatically."
Ukraine is $200,000 shy of their goal for Sky Sentinel as of this morning 6/22
The negatives are that Putin only send prayers to Iran (his biggest supporter) which means the weapon support to Russia from Iran will drop (hopefully dry out and remain dry).
The other big supporters (like china and North Korea) see how Putin behaves toward supporters in need and may not be happy about it. This will -at least- lead to some uncomfortable discussions and hopefully a drop in support.
And most importantly in my book: this is the first time since Trump is in office he does something big that is not fully in line with Putin's wants.
thank you, very important as the War continues in Ukraine. USA and it's allies need to give Ukraine the support it needs to defend itself... In my opinion Ukraine is just a stepping stone to future aggressive actions to regain the "old" soviet union...
As with any war, or indeed any media event in this over connected digital age, our attention span is about equal to that of a goldfish. However what the Ukrainian have demonstrated is a clear propensity and capacity for adaptation under fire, notwithstanding the criticism levelled against some general officers in the Ukrainian army, I believe what Ukraine is rapidly becoming a kind of country resembling israeli society's resilience in the face of a hostile Arab neighbourhood since the first day of the official recognition of that country. Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union but is no different in than Azerbaïjan and Armenia were under the Soviet Union. In any case as surveys and even the election results in the east of the country when Zelenzski was elected president show even the Russian speaking Ukrainians rallied to the vision of an independent Ukraine. Slava Ukraina
Why did Caligula 47 pull the trigger? Perhaps a combination of netanyahu BS, insecurity re TACO label, and hopes for a domestic terror response (to ramp up the police state).
And, yes, it's tragic that European nations are hedging their steps into the trumpian breach but if they can ramp up their anti-missile supply, the russian economy will bleed dry.
Worth re-watching 'Downfall' to understand the putin mindset.
"Victory for Ukraine may not come through peace negotiations or battlefield capitulation but through the construction of a resilient, secure, and thriving state under permanent threat. "
It strikes me that this quote, and the full paragraph, is also a pretty good description of Israel and its situation.
Even if Putin were right about the Russians and Ukrainians being one people, so what? There are five "Anglo-Saxon" countries, and nobody questions their right to independence (except for Trump briefly making noises about "51st state"). Then there are multiple German speaking, French speaking, Spanish speaking and Arabic speaking countries. If, say, the residents of Siberia overwhelmingly wanted to split from Russia and form their own country, would it really matter that they are the same Russians as in the European part of Russia? Putin's argument implies that Moscow rulers are entitled to rule the entire Russian people, so the only question is whether some foreigners are actually Russians. But why exactly does Moscow have a right to govern all Russian people?
Of course he does not believe that they are one shared people--he basically believes that Ukrainians are Russians who need to be slapped down
And used as cannon fodder in the next war of conquest, aimed at restoring Moscow’s control of further still-defiant provinces of the empire of Eurasia.
So from the Ukrainian perspective: “In this sense, all of Russia is ours,"
Thankfully the Ukrainians dont think like this!
No. But the inverse of the Putin statement demonstrates its absurdity
Well, the Princes of Kyiv used to rule what is now Russia. One of them actually founded Moscow.
Yes, and I was told that the Kyivan Rus were originally Swedish Vikings. Not “Putin’s People.”
You touch on a very interesting history. Scandinavian Vikings from roughly Norway and Denmark went west out in the Atlantic to the "British Isles" and Ireland as well as down the coast to France and eventually into the Mediterranean, while eastern Vikings, principally from Sweden, went down the north-south rivers of what became Muscovy to settle at the confluence of two major rivers in what became Kievan Rus.
As the legend goes, sometime in the 6th century 3 brothers and a sister began a settlement that because of its defensible location grew fairly quickly into a town named after one of the brothers, Kyy, the town eventually taking the name of Kyiv. The first written mention of Moscow was, depending on the source, in either the 9th or 12th century.
A case could be made that Muscovy belongs to Kievan Rus but my belief is that a better case could be made for Sweden owning the whole shot. All of this is actually moot because of the number and fluidity of tribes and the borders of various dukedoms (Lithuania, Poland and so forth) which had fairly massive if dubious territorial control.
No matter. It's now the 21st century and Putin remains the current Muscovite ruler, now of an empire which extends all the way to the Pacific. You'd think that would be enough, but apparently it isn't.
"Russia" actually means "Sweden" in Finnish. Well, not "Russia" but "Ruotsi". A millennium ago it was the same words, I believe the Finnish word "Rus" actually meant "oarsmen", as the Swedes were arriving by boat.
There are two theories. One is Vikings; the other is no Vikings, only Slavic tribes. I wonder if Putin subscribes to the latter.
Yes, the Kievan Rus were originally founded by Vikings from Sweden, often called Varangians or Rus'. Historical sources like the Primary Chronicle describe how East Slavic and Finnic tribes invited Scandinavian Vikings, led by Rurik, to rule and bring order in the region around 862 AD. Rurik and his successors established the Rurikid dynasty, which ruled Kievan Rus for centuries.
Putin actually bored Tucker Carlson almost to death with a half hour lecture starting in 862 AD and then proceeding to some letters from 1654 incontrovertibly proving that Ukraine belongs to Russia (apparently he showed him the originals!).
Can a mindless fool like Tucker Carlson actually be bored? There's no brain activity. It's open for any s#### to be poured in
For many centuries, the meaning of “all of Rus” has been “all the land that those who claim to rule Rus succeed in actually asserting control over”. Putin is actually part of a long historic tradition of imperialistic war criminals in that regard.
Russia's lack of clear geographical boundaries invites this kind of thinking. Where does Russia end and Poland begin? Where does the Ottoman Empire end and Russia begin?
>But why exactly does Moscow have a right to govern all Russian people?
As we all seem to come from Africa ... which African has the right to govern the world?
Good point.
In stark contrast, while the war is depleting Russia's economy, it's interesting to note how Ukraine, with its strong and creative engineering ecosystem, is emerging as a global leader in weapon manufacturing (notably UAV, USV and UGV but also cheaper and more effective missiles of all sorts). The knowledge and know-how gathered by defending themselves makes for the best marketing...
And with EUrope behind them, Ukraine would have an even brighter economic future than Putin's dead hand state
Ukraine wouldn't have to try very hard to have a brighter future than Russia with Putin at the helm. When this war is over someone is going to have to write an economic history of the war and what I expect to be Russia's unsuccessful efforts to defy the laws of economic gravity.
Im sure they will!
The problem is access to documents. I believe they still haven't declassified documents from Prokhorovka.
Indeed.
And the impact on the Russian economy will persist for decades (European demand / need / infrastructure to receive for Russian fossil fuels, history of Russian theft of foreign-owned property (remember the tens of billions in planes they tried to - and mostly did - seize), track record of not paying, under performance of Russian air weaponry, loss of 1-2% of the labor force with need for lifetime medical care for a majority).
The Great Battle of Pokrovsk has now lasted longer than Verdun. Is it the longest battle in modern history?
Good Lord, Thats right--and much longer than Stalingrad too
Since Stalingrad is usually counted since about two months before the Germans actually approached the city, perhaps the official start of the Great Battle of Pokrovsk should be the Great Popasna Breakthrough.
Well, that would make it one of the longest battles in history!
Chasiv Yar even longer. It was supposed to fall in time for Victory Day 2024, IIRC
Indeed, we are well over a year on that now
I’m very happy to see a reminder to not forget about Ukraine. With the US abandoning them, we have to step up in everything we do and actively help them win.
On a personal level, my 3D printer is running 24/7 pumping out things for the Ukrainian DrukArmy, from training kits to drone launchers and much else. It isn’t much, but if enough people do it, it does add up.
Amazing.
https://drukarmy.org.ua/en
I'm shocked by the bombing of Iran. If you can't trust Trump to always chicken out, who CAN you trust nowadays?!
Me too! More on that tomorrow
It's interesting that Putin reacted to the bombing of his treaty ally the same way Republican politicians react to school shootings - by sending lots of thoughts and prayers.
The Ukrainians have so consumed his military that he has no options but thoughts and prayers
For what it's worth, Medvedevs' statements after the attack were a tad off neutral, as usual.
Until relatively recently the Russians were attacking energy infrastructure rather than (or at least as well as) apartment blocks. Not any more, it seems. Conversely, Ukraine now seems to be very effective in targeting Russian military infrastructure (including energy) with few civilain casualties. I'd be interested in comments on this.
Its worth considering. There seems to be a halt on both sides against energy attacks--which might be a sign of an unspoken agreement in this area. The attacks now seem Russians against Ukrainian willingness to fight, and Ukraine against Russian military capacity
Isn't destroying energy facilities a "winter event"?
I agree with you completely. I deliberately sought out news about Russia and Ukraine, as the bombs were falling on Fordo. Even as an expat Israeli who sees Iran's Ayatollah regime as an existential threat to the country of my childhood, I see Ukraine's war as the critical conflict of our time. It is so painful for me to see America's abandonment. Thank you for your newsletter, I don't know what I'd do without it.
Given that Netanyahu is a genocidal maniac running an aggressive war against Syria and one against Lebanon and now one against Iran, I'm sure Ukraine sees the parallels to Vladimir Putin, and I'm sure they're not reassured by Western Europe's willingness to support one genocidal maniac.
But all Ukraine needs is money. Ukraine has the best military in the entire world, bar none, by any measure, as long as they can pay for the raw materials and pay the workers. I expect them to win.
And of course Ukraine has the leadership with the most geopolitical expertise in the world. Zelenskyy knows more about history and politics than the leaders of most of the world put together, and he demonstrated it in his TV show before being elected.
The Ukrainians are realists...they have to be. They knew with the election of Trump that further support from the US was problematic. After two months of this regime there was no longer doubt. The great opportunity to defeat Putin decisively was lost under the Biden administration with its "measured" military support. Fortunately for Ukraine she was given just enough time to develop a domestic war-fighting industrial base, aided now by German investment. Europe will continue to supply material and weapons to Ukraine, the most important being fighter aircraft. A war that could have seen a culmination last year, with proper support, will now grind on.
Yes. And I’m also pained by (1) lack of unity govt and (2) AFU being so slow to identify and address low-skill commanders that waste heroes’ lives.
I recall reading some commentator (that it strikes me as usually informed but I can't recall the name) indicating that anyone talking about "Sky Shield" as a viable option really does not know what they are talking about. His major point was that there were have to be a lot of integration work with Ukrainian air defence systems so the jets did not get shot down. Okay...point taken but how about they do that then? Surely over 3.5 years that could be accomplished as they are clearly doing similar things ad hoc in Israel. Perhaps not a full Sky Shield but shoot down anything in range of the Western and over the Black Sea. Or how about something rather than nothing?
Have you received any feedback from your informed sources on this issue?
Giving Ukraine a sky shield at present seems almost impossible--the US wont even sell more Patriot missiles
Granted. But surely they could shoot down drones at least that are within range of the Western borders? If they can do similar for Israel seemingly on demand - or have there been years of integration prep work for that?
My understanding is that there is concern in countries like Poland or Romania that intervening directly in Ukraine by actions such as shooting down Russian cruise missiles in range of their defensive systems would weaken their own article 5 protection. One can easily imagine Orban or Fico vetoing Nato collective response because of supposed prior provocation of Russia.
Are you sure there is a veto right? It’s not some sort of council with binding outcomes. All countries are sovereign and in the end do what they like.
There is the principle of consensus
I would argue that if Orban and Fico do not agree then there is no consensus
Same principle used by orban to block eu funds for Ukraine
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49178.htm?utm_source=perplexity
That seems correct but on the other hand, if you want to fight as NATO you will need a central command and a NATO agreement to act.
So yes everybody is sovereign but there is also a need for a "council" to act as NATO.
EDIT:
Remember that article 5 has only been activated once (by USA) so it is not that this is a well drilled procedure.
https://u24.gov.ua/sky-sentinel From United24[ Sky Sentinel is an advanced, Ukrainian-made turret that can eliminate air threats with high precision. It has been nicknamed the ‘Shahed Catcher,’ since Shahed drones are the Kremlin's favorite weapon of destruction.
But for Sky Sentinels, the sky's the limit: at optimal distances, they are capable of neutralizing Shaheds, smaller drones, or even cruise missiles.
If the target enters the turret’s range, it will be eliminated. Instantly and automatically."
Ukraine is $200,000 shy of their goal for Sky Sentinel as of this morning 6/22
The further escalation in Iran will push up the oil price.
Given that the Russian goverment is almost bancrupt, they probably need high oil price more than Iran.
So the USA strikes are probably in Putins favour.
My 2 cent:
The oil prices a clearly a pro for Putin.
The negatives are that Putin only send prayers to Iran (his biggest supporter) which means the weapon support to Russia from Iran will drop (hopefully dry out and remain dry).
The other big supporters (like china and North Korea) see how Putin behaves toward supporters in need and may not be happy about it. This will -at least- lead to some uncomfortable discussions and hopefully a drop in support.
And most importantly in my book: this is the first time since Trump is in office he does something big that is not fully in line with Putin's wants.
China already knows what Putin is like, so his behavior re: Iran won't change their dealings.
thank you, very important as the War continues in Ukraine. USA and it's allies need to give Ukraine the support it needs to defend itself... In my opinion Ukraine is just a stepping stone to future aggressive actions to regain the "old" soviet union...
As with any war, or indeed any media event in this over connected digital age, our attention span is about equal to that of a goldfish. However what the Ukrainian have demonstrated is a clear propensity and capacity for adaptation under fire, notwithstanding the criticism levelled against some general officers in the Ukrainian army, I believe what Ukraine is rapidly becoming a kind of country resembling israeli society's resilience in the face of a hostile Arab neighbourhood since the first day of the official recognition of that country. Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union but is no different in than Azerbaïjan and Armenia were under the Soviet Union. In any case as surveys and even the election results in the east of the country when Zelenzski was elected president show even the Russian speaking Ukrainians rallied to the vision of an independent Ukraine. Slava Ukraina
Why did Caligula 47 pull the trigger? Perhaps a combination of netanyahu BS, insecurity re TACO label, and hopes for a domestic terror response (to ramp up the police state).
And, yes, it's tragic that European nations are hedging their steps into the trumpian breach but if they can ramp up their anti-missile supply, the russian economy will bleed dry.
Worth re-watching 'Downfall' to understand the putin mindset.
“Trump riding to the rescue of the Russian economy—hmm”. Plausible and secretive and right up Trump’s alley.
"Victory for Ukraine may not come through peace negotiations or battlefield capitulation but through the construction of a resilient, secure, and thriving state under permanent threat. "
It strikes me that this quote, and the full paragraph, is also a pretty good description of Israel and its situation.