The recent all drone offensive operation in Kharkiv, I believe was a proof of concept. As you have stated Ukraine has built significant numbers of drones but reporting has focussed primarily on air drones with little attention on the advancements they have made on their ground drones. What we have seen is technological advancements, led by Ukraine, that have or are creating the potential for offensive operations based on this technology with the aim of destroying the enemy, air dominance and only utilising troops to mop-up. Their ground drones include engineering systems that enable them to overcome obstacles and I know that they are developing "swarm" technology for their air drones. Given the numbers that they are producing, this I believe will form the vanguard of any future offensives this year.
I subscribe to the WP but given their totally unrealistic reporting means I no longer consider it a reliable check on what is happening. Unfortunately, I paid a full years subscription and cannot undo that.
The Ukranian Officer's perspective is encouraging and I am still convinced that this is the year that Russia reaches an inflection point. However, the turd in the punch bowl is Trump, but again President Z and his European supporters are playing a very clever game of not showing their hands. The Daily Mail recently published "Trumps" peace plan. I believe it was BS but I also think that the Trump administration was testing the water to see what the reactions were (Trump has history). It was interesting that President Z called it Russian propaganda thus maintaining a non-confrontational position regarding Trump.
Phillips, you still have a very negative opinion of European support and with cause, but I am still firmly of the opinion that Trump will fail to acknowledge Ukraines independence and favour Russia which will result in the fighting continuing and in a fit of pique Trump will exclude himself from any influence. Europe, or more to the point, a part of Europe and the UK will continue their support and I hope increase it.
Putin is a dead man walking, he just doesn't realise it, as is normally the case with most authoritarians until it is too late. Just look at Romania.
Hi Alan, Thanks for all that. I think in the end UAVs will be the key more than ground vehicles, but both will matter of course. As for EUrope--I know states in CEE have tried more than many. The overall issue is the lack of push from European states as a whole to have Ukraine win--partly because they have been afraid of the US reaction. I would be pleased to see Europeans understand that the US does not actually their interests at heart these days, and for Europeans to take their future more in their own hands. And that means helping Ukraine win.
I was initially enthusiastic about the "minerals for arms" proposition. It's a grim precedent, but at least a path forward. Germany has complained - they feel they've earned a slice of the loot. Such disunity is very bad but not a killer. No, in my mind, the ascension of Tulsi Gabbard suggests that the U.S. is now a Putin ally and can not deliver the goods. How could UKR function without sharing intelligence with their weapons patron?
The offer was quite clever. The minerals are concentrated in RU occupied territory. Trump only gets the big payoff with earnest action.
But enough dreaming. Europe, you are on your own! Please save the democratic experiment.
Not only do I fear trump will abandon Ukraine, I worry he will quietly extend a hand to putin. Ground News reports that trump has dropped the Biden task force aimed at seizing assets of russian oligarchs.
But Europe will not drop sanctions and even though they do not have the same weight Europe plus the UK amount to just under $20 trillion approx ten times Russia's GDP. So it will continue to have an impact.
It will be hard for Europe to bare the brunt of sanctions while the U.S. benefits from restored relations. Do you see Germany paying the cost or folding and hoping for the best? I genuinely am unsure. Europe has never faced a fascist dictatorship in the U.S.
Don't forget that Russia has stiffed pretty much every foreign company on its contracts -- i.e. not paid them. Nobody WANTS to do business with Russia. Even without sanctions:
(1) everyone will demand payment for goods in hard currency in advance at a premium (for evading European sanctions)
(2) anyone putting money into Russia will demand goods delivered in advance of payment (even North Korea is demanding this)
(3) Russia has practically nothing to export
So basically once they use up their gold reserves, how do they buy anything?
Very true. However, if US support for Russia ever came out, I can see the GOP falling apart both in the House and the Senate as there are sufficient Reps and Senators that would not tolerate that. Furthermore, Europe would also respond and I'm sure that all those military equipment contracts would go up in smoke as Europe could no longer rely on the US being a faithful partner. The European DIB would benefit.
I hope you’re right. I have to admit though that I haven’t seen anyone from the GOP with a spine. They’ve just confirmed the worst wrecking crew to the country I’ve ever seen in my life.
Spoiler: Republicans live in mortal fear of the mob and will never, ever cross Trump on anything now. They accept the dictatorship and focus on the promised opportunity to rebuild the gov to right wing specifications.
Good news: If you contact the WaPo, you can step up from just canceling future renewals to canceling the WaPo subscription outright and getting a refund for the remaining balance. Get them where it hurts.
Ukraine is greatly increasing its stocks of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) but it is very early days. They'll be available on in the hundreds this year and are mostly for casualty evac and logistics. It may be several years before they become a significant offensive force.
Ukraine is progressing slowly and carefully with using UGVs in combat. First, on solo test missions, then in the combined attack on a single bunker last year which featured assault UGVs plus mine-clearing UGVs, reconnaissance drones, and FPV attack drones.
They are clearly working out the best way to assualt heavily defended positions. This is the most dangerous operation imaginable in this mine-infested, FPV-heavy and ranged-in artillery warfare. If they can achieve that quickly and with minimal loss of life, they could then punch through and quickly exploit the opening. This is something neither side has been able to achieve since the opening months of the war save for the advance into Kursk.
And whilst the Ukrainians are doing all that drone work, what are the Russians doing do you think?
What should we look it as far as Romania is concerned Alan? Anything to do with the bogus annulment of their recent election? So much for freedom and democracy.
Seems to be that the assumption around here is that the Russians are just twiddling their Soviet-inspired thumbs whilst the Ukrainians are making these steps forward. Strikes me that that is cobblers - take their fibre optic (and therefore currently unjammable) drones for instance. They're active - and likely winning - this arms race.
We have three years of evidence of Ukrainians winning in innovation. UAV, USVs, UGVs, air defense (doing more with the patriots than have ever been done), use of ancient S 200s to knock down Russian bombers…
I’m probably short changing the Russians, but the top innovation that comes to mind coming from the Russian side is to use humans as literal cannon fodder.
I think you're more than short changing them. The Kinzhals and Oresniks are what in this analysis? Both sides have been innovating since 2014 and continue to do so. The idea that the RF have just defaulted to meat assaults is bonkers - there would be hours of video evidence of this online - piles of corpses, but these have been very few and far between. The idea that they're not as inovative or resourceful as their near neighbours is based almost entirely on chauvinism and wishful thinking. A lot of the RF fighting here were, until 2014, Ukrainians themselves anyway.
? There ARE piles of bodies :) - hundreds of thousands Russian-side dead, and all should be able to agree over HALF A MILLION when including seriously wounded and missing.
Re: the missiles, I would hardly consider a business as usual weapons program an example of innovation driven by this war.
I see, you want to play some dumb ass “gotcha” game. Just like I pick apart your agenda-pushing arguments every week that I read, I will oblige you again.
Second, what would you have us think the Russians mean when they talk about the meat grinder? About sending other Russians in meat assaults?
Third, we see evidence of the Russian deaths in Russian govt inheritance records. I keep pointing this out, and you keep ignoring it.
Fourth, the House of Lords says the front line is 1000 km. That’s just a snapshot in a point of time. Taking a guess, and to keep the math easy, I guess we would find Russian dead across 5,000 km of current or former front lines and rear areas. On average, that would be 40+ dead per square kilometer. You will find them in fields, but also in rivers, seabeds, buildings, burned out vehicles, and so on, and this will have been done over the course of three years. A large proportion of the bodies will have been blown to pieces. So there are probably few videos taken in active combat areas definitively showing hundreds of bodies in a single frame. But you already knew that.
Fibre optic drones cannot be jammed but can be deactivated if the cable is cut. Maybe you saw a report that the Ukrainians have managed to do this for the first time. They will probably be able to do it again.
Very probably - but this is an arms race & the Russians will develop their measures accordingly. The Russians have the great advantage of being able to do this across their economy - in small interests and large - whereas the Ukrainians are hampered by continual attacks, energy issues, funding and logistics. The Ukrainians doing exceptionally well considering all those problems, but the notion that the Russians are not at least equally capable is just silly.
As always, many thanks for your insightful updates!
One topic that I would love to see more discussion of is the Russian acts of war against NATO countries, such as the attacks on pipelines in the Baltic Sea or against the integrity of political processes e.g. quite recently in Germany cf. https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-hit-by-suspected-russia-backed-sabotage-campaign/ — not rising to the level of an armed attack in the sense of article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, but IMO still deserving of a much stronger response than I've seen so far from our governmental flobberworms in Central Europe.
Good points in what you published in the Atlantic - thanks again! Indeed I had not realized how much we (not only our governments, but also the citizens of the countries which Russia is attacking besides Ukraine—me personally also being such a citizen) would like to be able to continue pretending that Russia is not at war with our countries, because admitting that raises the very uncomfortable questions around why our countries are not doing what it will take to end this war. Now I'm talking about "ending" the war, not about "winning" it—Ukraine's government can legitimately have that goal, ours cannot as long as there is no direct military involvement.
But what does it mean to end this war? Certainly it cannot mean any kind of outcome in which Russia keeps any Ukrainian territory and gets a pause to rebuild its military and then attack again. That would overall make the war worse, it would not end it. Ending this war requires integrating Ukraine in a credible and effective military alliance, either a (reformed) NATO or a Europe-centric successor organization. A good and relatively easy step that can be taken immediately is of course to shift to wholeheartedly supporting Ukraine with all military equipment that will help in the current situation, without further pretending to know better than the Ukrainians what needs to be done.
Here's from an AP article "Ukraine losing ground as Trump talks of ending war..." from 2/4/25: "Pokrovsk: "decisive battles are playing out" and Ukraine is experiencing "a dire shortage of infantry troops and supply routes [are] coming under Russian drone attacks" "...Ukrainian commanders say they do not have reserves to sustain defense lines and that new infantry units are failing to execute operations" "Ukrainian logistics in peril" "New recruits are unprepared: "Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk said shortages of fighting troops are "catastrophic" and challenges are compounded by newly created infantry units that are poorly trained and inexperienced....they leave their positions, they do not hold them, they do not control them, they do not monitor them". All this based on interviews of Ukrainian commanders and front line soldiers. No interviews of anyone on the Russian side of the front, of course. Dire "reporting" of this nature can only prepare the American public to want to see Trump end the war asap...to save Ukraine! Professor, I rest your case.
Thank-you for your insight as always! I have two questions: do you think Ukraine should be more aggressive in taking over more russian territory? I can see pros and cons of course. Secondly, do you know if there are any Ukrainian military in Bakhmut?
I think Ukraine actually should have done a better job putting together a larger defensible salient in Kursk, They lost alot of the land they first took--and they could have done more to hold it. At this point--probably not going to see another large offensive (famous last words)....
Hi Stanislas. Lets see how they do first. The F-16s were less than amazing at first as they were old versions with pretty limited systems. Looking forward to seeing how the Mirages operate.
Phillips, you should reach out to the WSJ (you probably have) etc to offer your counterpoint through editorials. People need to know that Russia is a corn husk with very few kernels. I know you are a very busy guy so have you thought about trying to organize a group of volunteers to work the media crowd around these kind of messages that you develop and under your direction? Food for thought.
On a related and strategic subject, I believe that Turkey is no longer useful to the NATO alliance and should be ejected. The Russian loss of control of the Black Sea and loss of Syrian ports in the Eastern Med make them irrelevant in the NATO Southern tier. So the Turkey NATO bulwark is no longer needed. Instead, Israel should be offered their spot in NATO if Israel agrees to get tough on Russia about Ukrainian genocide and start providing kinetic material support to Ukraine. Turkey under the Islamic Brotherhood leadership of Erdogan is no friend of the West and often kinetically interferes with US support to the Kurds of Iraq and Syria. Erdogan also is very hostile to Israel and a strong supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel has good relations with the Kurds and if they can find their spine versus Putin and Russia they would be a strong naval and air ally throughout the region.
Ahh--cant be bothered to do that now with all the stories that drive me nuts. There have been so many! I just try to catalogue them here when they are particularly egregious.
Turkey wont be leaving NATO anytime soon--my guess
The other big news is Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia> These seem to be almost daily now. Of course the Russians claim to be shooting everything down but somehow the "debris" does even more damage than a direct hit.
I can't help but quote from Barbara Tuchman's book "The March of Folly"; "Wooden-headedness" in statecraft, which she defined as "assessing a situation in terms of preconceived fixed notions while ignoring or rejecting any contrary signs, has clearly become a prevailing factor in our polities". She also opened the forward to this book with, "A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by government of policy contrary to their own interests. Mankind, it seems, makes a poorer performance of government than of almost any other human activity in this sphere. Wisdom, which may be defined as the exercise of judgement action on experience, common sense and available information is less operative and more frustrated than it should be. Why do holders of high office so often act contrary to the wya reason points and enlightened self-interest suggests? Why does intelligent mental process seem of often not to function."
I've been re-reading this book but it's really hard given the current political situation, in the United States and the rest of the world. It did get mixed reviews when it was first published.
Phillips, Mick Ryan (whose analysis I rate highly) this weekend talks of Russian “asymmetry”: in manpower (as you and everyone else does) and also in glide bombs of 500, 1000 and 1500kg, and he said they even have an air-launched 3000kg bomb, all being launched deep inside Russia. He says Ukraine currently has no way to stop these - they are launched beyond its air defences and fly too fast to be picked up. They are doing a lot of damage.
Phillips, thanks again for a useful update.
The recent all drone offensive operation in Kharkiv, I believe was a proof of concept. As you have stated Ukraine has built significant numbers of drones but reporting has focussed primarily on air drones with little attention on the advancements they have made on their ground drones. What we have seen is technological advancements, led by Ukraine, that have or are creating the potential for offensive operations based on this technology with the aim of destroying the enemy, air dominance and only utilising troops to mop-up. Their ground drones include engineering systems that enable them to overcome obstacles and I know that they are developing "swarm" technology for their air drones. Given the numbers that they are producing, this I believe will form the vanguard of any future offensives this year.
I subscribe to the WP but given their totally unrealistic reporting means I no longer consider it a reliable check on what is happening. Unfortunately, I paid a full years subscription and cannot undo that.
The Ukranian Officer's perspective is encouraging and I am still convinced that this is the year that Russia reaches an inflection point. However, the turd in the punch bowl is Trump, but again President Z and his European supporters are playing a very clever game of not showing their hands. The Daily Mail recently published "Trumps" peace plan. I believe it was BS but I also think that the Trump administration was testing the water to see what the reactions were (Trump has history). It was interesting that President Z called it Russian propaganda thus maintaining a non-confrontational position regarding Trump.
Phillips, you still have a very negative opinion of European support and with cause, but I am still firmly of the opinion that Trump will fail to acknowledge Ukraines independence and favour Russia which will result in the fighting continuing and in a fit of pique Trump will exclude himself from any influence. Europe, or more to the point, a part of Europe and the UK will continue their support and I hope increase it.
Putin is a dead man walking, he just doesn't realise it, as is normally the case with most authoritarians until it is too late. Just look at Romania.
Hi Alan, Thanks for all that. I think in the end UAVs will be the key more than ground vehicles, but both will matter of course. As for EUrope--I know states in CEE have tried more than many. The overall issue is the lack of push from European states as a whole to have Ukraine win--partly because they have been afraid of the US reaction. I would be pleased to see Europeans understand that the US does not actually their interests at heart these days, and for Europeans to take their future more in their own hands. And that means helping Ukraine win.
I was initially enthusiastic about the "minerals for arms" proposition. It's a grim precedent, but at least a path forward. Germany has complained - they feel they've earned a slice of the loot. Such disunity is very bad but not a killer. No, in my mind, the ascension of Tulsi Gabbard suggests that the U.S. is now a Putin ally and can not deliver the goods. How could UKR function without sharing intelligence with their weapons patron?
The offer was quite clever. The minerals are concentrated in RU occupied territory. Trump only gets the big payoff with earnest action.
But enough dreaming. Europe, you are on your own! Please save the democratic experiment.
Ukraine stopped sharing sensitive intel with the US after the gigantic leak by whats-his-name a year or two ago -- Jack Teixeira.
Makes sense. It does make the Big arms for Big minerals Big deal seem unlikely.
Not only do I fear trump will abandon Ukraine, I worry he will quietly extend a hand to putin. Ground News reports that trump has dropped the Biden task force aimed at seizing assets of russian oligarchs.
Trump would love to drop sanctions and get back to business with Russia. Its his default position
But Europe will not drop sanctions and even though they do not have the same weight Europe plus the UK amount to just under $20 trillion approx ten times Russia's GDP. So it will continue to have an impact.
It will be hard for Europe to bare the brunt of sanctions while the U.S. benefits from restored relations. Do you see Germany paying the cost or folding and hoping for the best? I genuinely am unsure. Europe has never faced a fascist dictatorship in the U.S.
Whups, the simple bare necessities - can't blame autocorrect this time
Don't forget that Russia has stiffed pretty much every foreign company on its contracts -- i.e. not paid them. Nobody WANTS to do business with Russia. Even without sanctions:
(1) everyone will demand payment for goods in hard currency in advance at a premium (for evading European sanctions)
(2) anyone putting money into Russia will demand goods delivered in advance of payment (even North Korea is demanding this)
(3) Russia has practically nothing to export
So basically once they use up their gold reserves, how do they buy anything?
Very true. However, if US support for Russia ever came out, I can see the GOP falling apart both in the House and the Senate as there are sufficient Reps and Senators that would not tolerate that. Furthermore, Europe would also respond and I'm sure that all those military equipment contracts would go up in smoke as Europe could no longer rely on the US being a faithful partner. The European DIB would benefit.
I hope you’re right. I have to admit though that I haven’t seen anyone from the GOP with a spine. They’ve just confirmed the worst wrecking crew to the country I’ve ever seen in my life.
That is true and it will take time for some to grow a spine but it will happen if Trump sides with Russia.
Spoiler: Republicans live in mortal fear of the mob and will never, ever cross Trump on anything now. They accept the dictatorship and focus on the promised opportunity to rebuild the gov to right wing specifications.
I hope you are wrong.
Good news: If you contact the WaPo, you can step up from just canceling future renewals to canceling the WaPo subscription outright and getting a refund for the remaining balance. Get them where it hurts.
Ukraine is greatly increasing its stocks of unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) but it is very early days. They'll be available on in the hundreds this year and are mostly for casualty evac and logistics. It may be several years before they become a significant offensive force.
https://en.defence-ua.com/events/milrem_robotics_expects_over_200_of_its_platforms_to_be_in_ukraine_by_year_end-13396.html
https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/how_tarhan_ugv_helps_ukrainian_forces_evacuate_drones_and_in_other_combat_missions-13479.html
Ukraine is progressing slowly and carefully with using UGVs in combat. First, on solo test missions, then in the combined attack on a single bunker last year which featured assault UGVs plus mine-clearing UGVs, reconnaissance drones, and FPV attack drones.
https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/9_unmanned_systems_bolster_ukrainian_military_capabilities_minimizing_casualties_on_the_front_lines-10470.html
They are clearly working out the best way to assualt heavily defended positions. This is the most dangerous operation imaginable in this mine-infested, FPV-heavy and ranged-in artillery warfare. If they can achieve that quickly and with minimal loss of life, they could then punch through and quickly exploit the opening. This is something neither side has been able to achieve since the opening months of the war save for the advance into Kursk.
Ukraine will figure it out before Russia does, that much I'm sure of.
And whilst the Ukrainians are doing all that drone work, what are the Russians doing do you think?
What should we look it as far as Romania is concerned Alan? Anything to do with the bogus annulment of their recent election? So much for freedom and democracy.
Thanks indeed for this novel and highly interesting perspective on the course of the war. Just after reading your piece, I found this account of the all drone attack that your refer to in Tim Mak's Counteroffensive substack: https://www.counteroffensive.news/p/the-first-ever-all-drone-assault?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-834af911-5c62-454a-b2e4-7450229a1f20. it makes for fascinating reading. Maybe the Ukrainians are the first ones to usher in the future of warfare.
Just saw that--interesting. Its going to be the future.
Yes, I believe they will.
Seems to be that the assumption around here is that the Russians are just twiddling their Soviet-inspired thumbs whilst the Ukrainians are making these steps forward. Strikes me that that is cobblers - take their fibre optic (and therefore currently unjammable) drones for instance. They're active - and likely winning - this arms race.
We have three years of evidence of Ukrainians winning in innovation. UAV, USVs, UGVs, air defense (doing more with the patriots than have ever been done), use of ancient S 200s to knock down Russian bombers…
I’m probably short changing the Russians, but the top innovation that comes to mind coming from the Russian side is to use humans as literal cannon fodder.
I think you're more than short changing them. The Kinzhals and Oresniks are what in this analysis? Both sides have been innovating since 2014 and continue to do so. The idea that the RF have just defaulted to meat assaults is bonkers - there would be hours of video evidence of this online - piles of corpses, but these have been very few and far between. The idea that they're not as inovative or resourceful as their near neighbours is based almost entirely on chauvinism and wishful thinking. A lot of the RF fighting here were, until 2014, Ukrainians themselves anyway.
? There ARE piles of bodies :) - hundreds of thousands Russian-side dead, and all should be able to agree over HALF A MILLION when including seriously wounded and missing.
Re: the missiles, I would hardly consider a business as usual weapons program an example of innovation driven by this war.
You ought to be able to link to a few videos for me then.
I see, you want to play some dumb ass “gotcha” game. Just like I pick apart your agenda-pushing arguments every week that I read, I will oblige you again.
First, here you go.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/22/world/europe/russia-ukraine-toll-bodies.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
Second, what would you have us think the Russians mean when they talk about the meat grinder? About sending other Russians in meat assaults?
Third, we see evidence of the Russian deaths in Russian govt inheritance records. I keep pointing this out, and you keep ignoring it.
Fourth, the House of Lords says the front line is 1000 km. That’s just a snapshot in a point of time. Taking a guess, and to keep the math easy, I guess we would find Russian dead across 5,000 km of current or former front lines and rear areas. On average, that would be 40+ dead per square kilometer. You will find them in fields, but also in rivers, seabeds, buildings, burned out vehicles, and so on, and this will have been done over the course of three years. A large proportion of the bodies will have been blown to pieces. So there are probably few videos taken in active combat areas definitively showing hundreds of bodies in a single frame. But you already knew that.
#DisinformationPlaybook
Fibre optic drones cannot be jammed but can be deactivated if the cable is cut. Maybe you saw a report that the Ukrainians have managed to do this for the first time. They will probably be able to do it again.
Very probably - but this is an arms race & the Russians will develop their measures accordingly. The Russians have the great advantage of being able to do this across their economy - in small interests and large - whereas the Ukrainians are hampered by continual attacks, energy issues, funding and logistics. The Ukrainians doing exceptionally well considering all those problems, but the notion that the Russians are not at least equally capable is just silly.
Thanks, Phillips. This perspective deserves broader distribution!
Thanks Paul
As always, many thanks for your insightful updates!
One topic that I would love to see more discussion of is the Russian acts of war against NATO countries, such as the attacks on pipelines in the Baltic Sea or against the integrity of political processes e.g. quite recently in Germany cf. https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-hit-by-suspected-russia-backed-sabotage-campaign/ — not rising to the level of an armed attack in the sense of article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, but IMO still deserving of a much stronger response than I've seen so far from our governmental flobberworms in Central Europe.
Ive written on that in the past--even did a piece in the Atlantic on it recently.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2025/01/europe-russia-ukraine-multifront-war/681295/
Europe must do more
Good points in what you published in the Atlantic - thanks again! Indeed I had not realized how much we (not only our governments, but also the citizens of the countries which Russia is attacking besides Ukraine—me personally also being such a citizen) would like to be able to continue pretending that Russia is not at war with our countries, because admitting that raises the very uncomfortable questions around why our countries are not doing what it will take to end this war. Now I'm talking about "ending" the war, not about "winning" it—Ukraine's government can legitimately have that goal, ours cannot as long as there is no direct military involvement.
But what does it mean to end this war? Certainly it cannot mean any kind of outcome in which Russia keeps any Ukrainian territory and gets a pause to rebuild its military and then attack again. That would overall make the war worse, it would not end it. Ending this war requires integrating Ukraine in a credible and effective military alliance, either a (reformed) NATO or a Europe-centric successor organization. A good and relatively easy step that can be taken immediately is of course to shift to wholeheartedly supporting Ukraine with all military equipment that will help in the current situation, without further pretending to know better than the Ukrainians what needs to be done.
Love this week’s summary. Good for the soul.
Appreciate that David
Here's from an AP article "Ukraine losing ground as Trump talks of ending war..." from 2/4/25: "Pokrovsk: "decisive battles are playing out" and Ukraine is experiencing "a dire shortage of infantry troops and supply routes [are] coming under Russian drone attacks" "...Ukrainian commanders say they do not have reserves to sustain defense lines and that new infantry units are failing to execute operations" "Ukrainian logistics in peril" "New recruits are unprepared: "Ukrainian soldiers in Pokrovsk said shortages of fighting troops are "catastrophic" and challenges are compounded by newly created infantry units that are poorly trained and inexperienced....they leave their positions, they do not hold them, they do not control them, they do not monitor them". All this based on interviews of Ukrainian commanders and front line soldiers. No interviews of anyone on the Russian side of the front, of course. Dire "reporting" of this nature can only prepare the American public to want to see Trump end the war asap...to save Ukraine! Professor, I rest your case.
I believe the US military says, "send a bullet and not a man."
Indeed!
Unfortunately that bullet will be charged at $23,302.15 by General Dynamics. Ker-ching!
Thank you. You won’t get this in the NY Times. Sad.
I fear you are right Carol.
Thank-you for your insight as always! I have two questions: do you think Ukraine should be more aggressive in taking over more russian territory? I can see pros and cons of course. Secondly, do you know if there are any Ukrainian military in Bakhmut?
I think Ukraine actually should have done a better job putting together a larger defensible salient in Kursk, They lost alot of the land they first took--and they could have done more to hold it. At this point--probably not going to see another large offensive (famous last words)....
and I dont have any knowledge on whats happening in Bakhmut
Hi Phillips,
Great post again.
I thought you'd comment on the delivery of Mirage 2000 to Ukraine this week.
https://x.com/SebLecornu/status/1887436710021050400?t=VlFPh1el1Q3nBxurwLszEQ&s=19
Is there a reason you didn't?
Hi Stanislas. Lets see how they do first. The F-16s were less than amazing at first as they were old versions with pretty limited systems. Looking forward to seeing how the Mirages operate.
Phillips, you should reach out to the WSJ (you probably have) etc to offer your counterpoint through editorials. People need to know that Russia is a corn husk with very few kernels. I know you are a very busy guy so have you thought about trying to organize a group of volunteers to work the media crowd around these kind of messages that you develop and under your direction? Food for thought.
On a related and strategic subject, I believe that Turkey is no longer useful to the NATO alliance and should be ejected. The Russian loss of control of the Black Sea and loss of Syrian ports in the Eastern Med make them irrelevant in the NATO Southern tier. So the Turkey NATO bulwark is no longer needed. Instead, Israel should be offered their spot in NATO if Israel agrees to get tough on Russia about Ukrainian genocide and start providing kinetic material support to Ukraine. Turkey under the Islamic Brotherhood leadership of Erdogan is no friend of the West and often kinetically interferes with US support to the Kurds of Iraq and Syria. Erdogan also is very hostile to Israel and a strong supporter of Hamas and Hezbollah. Israel has good relations with the Kurds and if they can find their spine versus Putin and Russia they would be a strong naval and air ally throughout the region.
What do you think of this idea?
Ahh--cant be bothered to do that now with all the stories that drive me nuts. There have been so many! I just try to catalogue them here when they are particularly egregious.
Turkey wont be leaving NATO anytime soon--my guess
But you're happy to be published in bonkers Neocon rag edited by a Iraq War cheer-leader.
Didn’t you have a piece in the Journal a while back? And of course several in The Atlantic.
The other big news is Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia> These seem to be almost daily now. Of course the Russians claim to be shooting everything down but somehow the "debris" does even more damage than a direct hit.
I can't help but quote from Barbara Tuchman's book "The March of Folly"; "Wooden-headedness" in statecraft, which she defined as "assessing a situation in terms of preconceived fixed notions while ignoring or rejecting any contrary signs, has clearly become a prevailing factor in our polities". She also opened the forward to this book with, "A phenomenon noticeable throughout history regardless of place or period is the pursuit by government of policy contrary to their own interests. Mankind, it seems, makes a poorer performance of government than of almost any other human activity in this sphere. Wisdom, which may be defined as the exercise of judgement action on experience, common sense and available information is less operative and more frustrated than it should be. Why do holders of high office so often act contrary to the wya reason points and enlightened self-interest suggests? Why does intelligent mental process seem of often not to function."
I've been re-reading this book but it's really hard given the current political situation, in the United States and the rest of the world. It did get mixed reviews when it was first published.
Thanks for the good news. Sorely needed.
I see this column in Paul Keegan’s Substack column today. Apparently he is a fan.
Phillips, Mick Ryan (whose analysis I rate highly) this weekend talks of Russian “asymmetry”: in manpower (as you and everyone else does) and also in glide bombs of 500, 1000 and 1500kg, and he said they even have an air-launched 3000kg bomb, all being launched deep inside Russia. He says Ukraine currently has no way to stop these - they are launched beyond its air defences and fly too fast to be picked up. They are doing a lot of damage.
Any comments?
Bluesky comment this past week claimed that Ukraine is now able to shoot down glide bombs. I don’t have any corroboration for that though.
Here is something.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/war-and-conflicts/military/ukraine-using-secret-weapon-to-shoot-down-russia-s-killer-glide-bombs/ar-AA1yE3QH