Weekend Update #118: The Trump Administration’s Talking Points are Straight from Moscow

Also: Ukrainian attacks on Russian Refineries; Ukrainian Collapse Continues (In the Press)

Hello All,

I’m starting with some good news. Mykola Bielieskov and I recorded a new Ukraine-Russia War Talk podcast on Friday afternoon. I’m waiting to get it back from our producer and I will release it as soon as possible thereafter. It is a longer one than normal, to make up for the fact that its been a while since our last episode. So watch out for that—it should be with you shortly. We discuss geopolitics, the battle, ranged war, etc.

Apologies it has taken so long.

Also, this podcast will be completely new to many people reading this. This Substack has gained more than 10,000 subscribers since our last episode (yikes) and now has more than 70,000.

For those who do not know of it, Ukraine-Russia War Talk (like this weekend update) is always free to listen, has no commercials and Mykola and I release it as a public service. However, we would be delighted if you did want to support our work and made a donation to the Ukrainian charity Come Back Alive. They are an amazing group, trusted throughout Ukraine, which provides vital support to Ukrainian soldiers. Check them out.

With US aid winding down, all the support you can give to Ukraine is doubly valuable.

Now, without further ado—the weekend update.

The Trump Administration’s Talking Points are Straight from Moscow

Look, I know I’m a pessimist about Trump—but this week seemed to confirm that the brief flurry of messages that emanated from the Trump camp about Russia being weak (which they realize) was more a negotiating ploy than anything else. What we saw this week was Trump settling back into his normal sympathetic stance for Putin, the repeating of Russian talking points (by those around Trump) and signs that Trump is working would a deal with Russia that will not be good for Ukraine.

Lets talk about the reality. First, Trump himself or someone close to him (though I’m wagering on Trump himself) is in contact with Putin and trying to hammer out a deal for Ukraine—without it seems involving Ukraine. Trump himself said as much on Friday to the press. The exact words that he said showed that the administration is in contact with Russian sources, they are trying to reach common ground (all bluster is gone) and something “significant” should happen soon.

“We will be speaking, and I think will perhaps do something that’ll be significant,” Trump said in an exchange with reporters in the Oval Office. “We want to end that war. That war would have not started if I was president.”

Trump did not say who from his administration has been in contact with the Russians but insisted the two sides were “already talking.”

Asked if he has already spoken directly with Putin, Trump was coy: “I don’t want to say that.”

This is exactly what Putin has called for; bilateral US-Russian talks (great powers and all that) in which the two work out a deal that is forced on Ukraine. Putin desperately wants Ukraine to be relegated to a bystander in its own future—and right now Trump seems to be saying that it is.

Now, Trump really likes Putin, so maybe this was no surprise. However, an even more ominous sign about how these talks are going came from comments from those around Trump who are considered to be the most pro-Ukrainian, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Gen Keith Kellogg (retd), Trump’s specially named envoy to try and help end the war.

Keith Kellogg is now not just repeating Trump’s words, he is repeating Putin’s

What Kellogg said on Saturday might be the most worrying—as it is a call for a position that the Russian government has been pressing for a while. Kellogg said that the US wants Ukraine to hold an election in 2025 if possible, especially as part of any cease-fire deal. Its a straight-up Russian talking point. Sergei Lavrov, Russia Foreign Minister and Putin mouthpiece, said something similar in November, that Ukraine will have to have elections for Russia to respect any deal.

Kellogg’s supporting the Russian narrative opens up a number of very advantageous lines of attack for Russia.

1. It casts doubt on Zelensky’s legitimacy right now. The US is saying that they are viewing the present Ukrainian government as needing another popular mandate to respect its decisions.

2. It actually gives Russia an ability to reject any terms negotiated with Zelensky—they can claim that the US itself doubts Zelensky’s legitimacy.

3. It also will provide an early legal process showing that the occupied territories are not part of Ukraine—the Russians can say that they will not allow a vote there (they have been illegally annexed). So, if Ukraine has to have an election (which Russia wants) and can be denied the ability to poll all Ukrainians, its providing support for the Russian claim to Ukrainian land.

And lastly, its the worst example of Trumpist hypocrisy. Trump has never questioned Putin’s electoral mandate or called for another free Russian election. That Kellogg is now parroting this line shows how important its become.

Rubio added to this chorus by repeating one central claim that Russia wants spread, and repudiating another that Russia wants repudiated.

Rubio repeating Trump/Putin words on the Megyn Kelly show.

Rubio was speaking on the Megyn Kelly show—and the whole transcript is here if you want to read it.

First, he actually moved away from the Russia is weak narrative, and started talking about the growth of Russian strength. Indeed, he restores the notion of Russia being a great power, and implies that Russia is stronger now than it was before the full-scale invasion.

If you look around the world, I would say that in many cases our adversaries are stronger than they’ve ever been and became stronger over the last four years. Certainly Russia does not consider itself weaker than they were four years ago. They now control territory they didn’t have when Donald Trump left office.

Rubio went on to reinforce the idea of independent Russia strength, by claiming that in a multipolar world, Russia is one of the poles.

So it’s not normal for the world to simply have a unipolar power. That was not – that was an anomaly. It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, multi-great powers in different parts of the planet. We face that now with China and to some extent Russia…

Second, he repeated the claim made at his Senate confirmation hearing, that Ukraine can never regain its legally recognized territory and had no chance of defeating Russia.

But what – the dishonesty that has existed is that we somehow led people to believe that Ukraine would be able not just to defeat Russia but destroy them, push them all the way back to what the world looked like in 2012 or 2014, before the Russians took Crimea and the like.

You add it all together, and what Trump, Kellogg and Rubio are doing is basically articulating a Russian-centric view of the war; Ukraine’s government is illegitimate (though Russia’s obviously is legitimate), Russia is still a great power, Ukraine cant possible liberate its territory, and, we live in an age where great powers settle all issues in their interest.

BTW—Rubio also goes out of his way in the interview to repeat Trump’s threats about seizing Greenland and the Panama Canal. It basically is an articulation of a world without allies.

The consistency and depth of the Russian hold on US policy statements is a little numbing.

However words are not all. The Trump administration is taking actions that are already harming Ukraine a great deal. The cut off of all USAID funding did indeed cover Ukraine (one of the countries being helped a great deal by USAID). This has led to an immediate cessation of US support for a wide range of societally important initiatives, from helping with the rehabilitation of severely wounded veterans to support for free media in Ukraine.

Any visitor to Ukraine can tell you how vital it is to help wounded Ukrainian veterans, for instance. This war has taken a terrible toll on younger Ukrainians, and helping the wounded rebuild their lives (maybe even start families and have children) is a major part of Ukraine’s future.

In other words, the Trump administration has already started to actively weaken Ukraine.

And remember, Trump has not lifted a finger to ask Congress for any new aid for Ukraine. When the last of the Biden aid gets delivered—that’s it. What we are seeing is an unstoppable process of the Trump administration turning the US away from being an open supporter of Ukraine into something more neutral or even a supporter of some basic Russian goals.

This is not just ominous for Ukraine, its ominous for democracies around the world.

Ukrainian attacks on Russian Refineries

One thing that makes Rubio’s comments so pathetic is that its becoming clear that Ukraine is doing more to win the war than he understands and could do even more if properly supported by the US and others. The importance of ranged strike has become more and more obvious over the last few weeks. The reason that people like Trump (and those in the Biden Administration) have always opposed ranged strike for Ukraine is not because they do not believe Ukraine can win, its because they never wanted Ukraine to win. Limiting Ukrainian ranged strike has always been a way of saying to Putin that the US respects his position and wants to keep him in power.

And its been sadly effective.

Because right now we are more and more witnessing what the Ukrainians can do with ranged strike, even relying overwhelmingly on their own home-made systems, which are not nearly as sophisticated, accurate and powerful as western ones.

The Ukrainians for another weak have kept up the attack on Russian oil refining and distribution. Looking at just the attacks we know about over the last two months, its clear that the campaign has been a high priority. Here is a map that is circulating about the different known targets.

And impressively for Ukraine, the pace of these attacks is, if anything, accelerating. This week there were a number of reported new operations, including what the Ukrainian military says is one of the 10 largest facilities in all of Russia.

The attack on Ust-Luga was particularly telling. This is one of the main ports for Russia to ship out its oil to the shadow fleet. For a few days now, reports are that all oil shipments from the port have halted.

Its both an important but also frustrating development. Ukraine clearly has an excellent target set and is going about it. And if oil production and shipping in western Russia could be seriously degraded, this will hit the Russian economy hard. Russian oil revenues were already declining before these attacks happened.

However, it will take much more than one attack each to make this campaign work. See how long it takes the Russians to get Ust-Lugo back and working, and you will see how hard it really is to completely disable a target.

Certainly what is the case is that if Ukraine’s partners pulled out the stops and provided support to this campaign, the Russian ability to make money from oil would not just be damaged for days, it would be months or longer.

In other words, it would help Ukraine win the war.

Ukrainian Collapse Continues (In the Press)

The Ukraine is about to collapse Article of the Week (a new award Im thinking of bestowing) goes to The Economist this week. This is a refreshing change as the Washington Post and the Financial Times have dominated this category for months. The Economist seems to have decided because the Russians have seized the strategically insignificant large village of Velyka Novosilka, much of Ukraine’s defenses are about to fail.

Its such a weird reading, as what we have seen over January is a significant slowing in Russian micro advances. Indeed, according to Deep State, in January Russia took less territory than it has taken in any month since August.

Indeed, its less than a third of the amount Russia took in November.

Now, lets not read much into one month. As Mykola says in the podcast, its been a warm winter in the Donbas, and this has led to more mud than usual which could be hampering movement on both sides.

The thing about this narrative is not just that it is manifestly false—its that it feeds the ignorance of Rubio and others that Ukraine is doomed.

Ukraine is being swamped by the stupidity of the age, and everything that can be done to counter that stupidity must be done. And that starts with ridiculing stupid headlines.

Have a good rest of the weekend everyone.