Russia is not even the biggest loser in Syria. Over the 14 months since the October 7 attacks Iran has seen a dramatic collapse of its regional power, and it's not even guaranteed that the regime itself will survive for long, being now perceived as weak. As a result of their (mostly proxy) war against Israel, the ayatollahs now learn what FAFO means. No matter how bad the new Syrian regime will be domestically, the precipitous decline of Russian and Iranian ability to project power is very good strategic news for the West. It's also bad news for China, as its allies now have much less ability to create a big distraction in MENA when China needs it.
Iran has suffered a great deal as well--but I wonder (assuming Russia loses access to the bases) whether in concrete terms Russia is the bigger loser. Without those facilities, the geographical range of what it can try will be severely restricted. Overall--good news indeed!
That may depend on whether you look at absolute or proportional terms. Russia lost a lot of power in absolute terms, but Iran lost a great proportion of its power. Unlike for Russia, Middle East is the ONLY game for Iran. Now the Assad regime is gone, Hamas and Hezbollah are in bad shape (and Houthis have been damaged too), while some Arab air forces openly fly combat missions to defend Israel from Iran, and Israeli F-35's fly over Iran at will and destroy air defenses. And to think that ALL these setbacks have happened over the course of just 14 months! In comparison to this monumental strategic miscalculation, Putin does indeed remain a master strategist.
One can at least understand why Putin thought Ukraine was weak. But how on Earth could the ayatollahs have thought the same about Israel?!
The Iranians have backed themselves into a corner. This is the same danger China is facing, where even the appearance of weakness will be decried by ultranationalists. It effectively eliminates many avenues for compromise and rapprochement.
So leadership allows its hotheads to go on “Heia Safari!” as the Germans would say. Stir the pot a little here and there to have bread and circus for the folk back home, but crucially, without impacting same.
I don’t think anyone expected Israel to fly over Iran and selectively blow up pretty much all anti-aircraft assets as a show of force. Worse for Iran: there is no place to buy more of them on short notice since Russia has pretty much blown its stocks of s300 and s400 systems as well.
So now Iran literally lies bare when it comes to any strategic bombing campaign. The Israelis can hit them at will and the Iranians know it.
As for the biggest loser in all this, it seems that the chapter is not yet written. Yes, the Iranians and their proxies cannot stir up a conflict easily and quickly like they could before but at the same time the conflict is NOT resolved until we actually see the Alawaite areas agree to whatever the next Syrian government will be.
That may yet take years. I read reports elsewhere that the Alawaites have 20k troops, plenty of ammo, and the mountains at their disposal. Plus their backs literally to the sea. They may put up a much stiffer resistance out of necessity and fear than the rest of the Syrian army. But then again, if they got assurances re: mercy they too may decide to put down arms for the time being.
A Syria no longer aligned with Iran would likely be the best news yet for the tortured country that is Lebanon. Perpetually caught in the middle of multiple proxy wars, that place also finally deserves a rest.
Actually I saw some stories a couple of years ago about Israeli F-35's venturing into Iranian airspace just to see if they would be detected (just as with every BMW or Mercedes I ever rented in Germany you bet I found out just how fast it can go on the autobahn - and a stealth fighter is a lot cooler). Apparently, Israel was very satisfied with the results back then, so their return in force was indeed expected in certain contingencies.
I hope there's no fighting on the coastal plain. The anti-Assad coalition is very diverse, and it's quite perilous for the Sunni Arabs to go after any minorities. E.g. the Kurds may not like it, and they have quite an army too. The population in general may have little appetite for more civil war after 13 years. Turkey presumably does not want it either.
Lebanon may indeed be the greatest beneficiary if it manages to take full advantage of it. There's not only any Syrian occupation but even any threat thereof. Hezbollah is most unpopular ever, after blowing up half of Beirut a few years ago and provoking a war with Israel recently. And now it is in complete disarray, decimated, largely disarmed and with little prospect of resupply from Iran. As a minimum, the ceasefire is now likely to hold (those headbangers don't even have any place to flee to if everything goes very wrong for them). But if the Lebanese can finally get their act together and take advantage of the situation...
Alawite areas overthrew Assad without a fight, as it happens. There's going to be a unity government in Syria, except for the Turkish and Israeli invasions of Syria (SIGH)
The ayatollahs' primary external enemy is actually Saudi Arabia.
Israel is convenient for them to talk about because everyone in the Middle East detests the apartheid regime in Israel, but it's too far away to be truly relevant -- there was a similar dynamic in Africa for decades during the apartheid era of South Africa, where every African leader loved to call South Africa the enemy, but nobody actually cared about it except the immediately neighboring countries; they were concerned about their neighbors.
The actual primary enemy of the ayatollahs is, of course, the internal enemy: the forces of democracy and liberalism.
While losing Lebanese Hizbollah and losing influence in Syria is significant for the ayatollahs, as long as the new regimes are hostile to the Saudis, it's not necessarily fatal for them geopolitically.
The democratization is more dangerous to them from an internal politics point of view though.
This fear of democracy doesn't prevent the ayatollahs from supporting fairly-democratic Armenia against authoritarian Azerbaijan based on geopolitical interests though, so I think the geopolitical interests come first in the case of the ayatollahs. And that means as long as the new regimes are relatively anti-Saudi, they'll consider themselves to be doing OK. The new regime in Syria *is* anti-Saudi so Iran will open up relations with them and move on.
Israel is a democracy, not an apartheid regime. BTW Hegseth, Patel, Gabbard and RFK Jr. send their thanks to the anti-Israel Left for virtually guaranteeing their confirmation. Had the Left not vetoed nomination of a Jewish candidate for VP, Casey probably would have held on to his seat, and then a single GOP senator joining Collins and Murkowski could sink any nominee.
Israel is an apartheid regime, in the opinion of the South Africans who lived through apartheid (including Desmond Tutu). They know.
If it were a non-apartheid democracy, everyone would have the right to vote, which they don't. The apartheid regime in South Africa had elections, too.
Netenyahu is transforming Israel into an actual dictatorship, though hopefully he won't succeed. There are lots of people in Israel protesting against him, most of whom do have the right to vote.
He is actually trying to imprison his peaceful politicial opponents. Yes, Jewish opponents. For speaking out against him.
I'm not going to listen to the opinion of the South Africans supporting Putin.
Every Israeli citizen has the right to vote. You must be referring to territories outside Israel under Israeli control (although Gaza was not for almost two decades before October 7).
I supported Israeli protesters from the start, but that does not mean Israel is a dictatorship or an apartheid regime.
Does it matter? The fact that Iran cannot even project power next door to protect Assad is telling of its weakness in the region as well as at home where domestic tensions over basic rights and the economy threaten the Mullahs
Very interesting update, many thanks, especially so as the Assad regime has now collapsed.
Will be very interesting to follow how, or if, Russia sets out to save its naval and air base. The HTS and other rebel groups are not likely to make it easy for them.
You make a very important point about Putin’s interference in elections in European countries that, he thinks, could be influenced to support Russia. Moldova only just passed a pro-EU referendum and re-elected a pro-EU president. Georgia has seen unending evening protests against the pro-Russian government’s decision to “postpone” accession negotiations with the EU until 2028. In both countries, there is clear evidence of Russian interference in the election process.
The most interesting case however is that of Romania, where none other than the Constitutional Court cancelled the first round of voting in the presidential election only two days before the second round was due to take place. According to many reports, Câlin Georgescu, the surprise pro-Russian winner of the first round, declared no election expenses and “only” posted videos to Tik-Tok! What he failed to say was that there was a massive attempt to echo his message by numerous “influencers” who were reportedly paid up to $50 000 each to do so.
The inference drawn by the Romanian intelligence services who made their findings available to the Constitutional Court is that this campaign was clearly financed by Russia.
One can only hope that this unprecedented intervention by an institution designed to protect democracy and the rule of law in an EU country will be a wake-up call to democracies all over Europe to scrutinise much more closely future election campaigns and call out Russian interference wherever and whenever it occurs.
This is even worse for Russia now than if it would have happened three years ago. For three quarters of a century Soviet/Russian navy was able to operate in the Med even without any bases there - they would just sail out of Sevastopol. But in the Spring of 2022 Turkey closed the straits for Russian warships, so without Tartus, the Russians can only come to the Med from their Baltic or Arctic bases (and to back to them for any service and repairs). And there will be no airpower (unless they somehow make Kuzya operational again and capable of enduring a long deployment).
I doubt anyone predicted just how quickly Aleppo, Homs, and now Damascus would fall. At the same time, I expect far greater potential resistance as the HTS and other fractions start to push into the Northwest of the country. That is the area that most benefited from the Assad regime.
It is entirely possible that the Alawaite fractions up there come to an agreement, just as the remaining civilian leadership did in Damascus but I kind of doubt it will be as easy up there vs. Damascus. The folk on the coast have far more to lose and much to fear from rebel forces after being directly responsible for much bloodshed and terror throughout the land.
It will also be hard to negotiate a peace without a handover or at least some sort of reckoning for those responsible re: gassing, bombing, mass-executing, torturing, etc their fellow Syrians. The army may have dissolved in plain sight within the cauldron of Damascus, it will be far harder to not associate the worst of the worst with the Alawaite areas. (deserved or not)
The meme machines are already making fun of how Assad and Zelenskyy took opposite tacks re: staying and fighting vs. emigrating with alacrity to safer areas. I expect Assad is not even in the country anymore.
Im no expert on Syrian politics, so dont want to guess. The speed of the collapse is the most stunning thing--people just gave up on the regime. There are reports btw, that Assad's plane might have been shot down. Who knows where he is?
Reportedly. Until someone that knows Assad well observes him in Moscow, it’s simply a Russian statement.
Will be interesting to see how long Assad will remain a useful asset to Putin. After all that peacocking when Yanukovych had to leave Ukraine, Y will undoubtedly chuckle every time he sees Assad and remind A just how dismissive A was of Y when he got kicked out of Ukraine.
I'm reminded of the adage that before a dictatorship falls it looks inconceivable. After it falls it looks inevitable. I anticipate a lot of people who we didn't hear a peep from a week ago loudly proclaiming they all foresaw it happening.
Yes, this is exactly how so many dictators have fallen. And people always say the same thing. Trying to make predictions is a mug's game. It's just as possible Putin will fall from internal pressures like food prices (for example, the Great Egg Shortage this time last year which he rushed to remedy) as from the failure of his war in Ukraine. We won't know until the aftermath.
I have heard from reliable sources (aka voices inside my head) that when Putin offered to send more armaments, Assad replied, "I need a ride, not ammunition".
Yup, that’s one of the memes making the rounds. Thing is, Assad has several options re: where to go, but in each case the exile will be a golden cage.
Gone will be the days where he could go abroad with impunity even after killing so many fellow Syrians.
They will require paid protection 24x7 and there are literally millions of people who have a very personal stake in making him suffer, if possible. So it’s not only a threat against him, it also means his offspring. All in gilded cage.
It will be interesting to see what happens to the Narco market now that one of the biggest producers of illegal drugs may be going offline, if briefly.
It’s also notable that there have been zero verified sightings since the fall of Damascus. Russian pronouncements re same may be designed to buy Assad time as he tries to smuggle himself out of Damascus and into Alawite-controlled areas.
Besides, if the Russians claim that the sky is blue, it’s always good to go out and check. Anyhow, the mountains / guns / motivated Alawites may yet cause another slowdown in the resolution of the Syrian civil war but the Russian and Iranian withdrawal from the battlefield should give the rebels an advantage they’ve never had to date.
I wonder what interest the central Sunni government will have in dominating the Alawite enclave. Vengeance, of course, but do they really want to expend scarce resources and lives on it? Seems to me geographical partition, or at least accommodation settles the civil war. The Sunni majority back in power creates stability.
The issue is access to the sea, ease with which the Russians, Iranians, etc. can resupply the place with massive amounts of ordinance and "tourists". That could prolong the civil war considerably.
Currently, neither Russia or Iran are in a position to effectively help Assad. Hence, they're turning tail. But if Assad manages to hang on (and that is a big if) then there may be a future opportunity for either to stage a return.
One of the key questions will be how the allegedly-powerful crime syndicates in Syria will align themselves, i.e. will the new government try to rebuild the country without relying on being one of the biggest narco-traffickers in the ME?
That makes sense. I'm assuming that the Alawites would have to allow the central government access and control of the formally Russian naval base in Tartus.
Russia issued a statement saying that Assad gave instructions foe peaceful transfer of power. So they clearly are not going to insist that he's still the legitimate president (like they did with Yanukovich in 2014). But then operating military bases without permission from Damascus becomes tricky. And they can never trust the locals not to cut a deal with the government in Damascus.
This comment section is a strange den of Al Qaeda supporters Bre.ndan Whelen and Ian Henderson (OPCW whistleblowers) have shown the chemical weapons stories to be fabrications.
You are likely right about the Alwaite minority in the NW and they have benefited over decades from the Assad family’s rule. But what will be interesting from my perspective will be how the Kurds will factor into all this. If Turkey plays its cards right with HTS, they will allow the Kurds to have a region within Syria and a home for the PPK to mitigate that perceived problem and Turkey then becomes the big regional winner. Unfortunately I expect Erdogan to be an idiot and then turn the HTS against the Kurds creating more chaos for everybody.
It’s not clear to me how that will all resolve, regardless of what Turkey wants its proxies to accomplish. The PKK may not enjoy a lot of love in the Syrian highlands it occupies since most of the leaders appear to be Turkish and hence may feel more like an occupying force than liberators.
That said, an occupying force was preferable to Assad, so that kept the peace - until now. It wouldn’t surprise me if the locals gave the PKK the boot, with a lot of support from the Turks. That would achieve two aims by Turkey - eliminating the PKK along much of its southern flank and potentially shelving Kurdish independence dreams until after Erdogan is gone.
All are possibilities, but the Kurds can also claim they have been in the highland region for many years and it is an extension of the Kurdish region in Iraq. Only time will tell, but it will definitely be chaotic and shifting rapidly. It is interesting Israel has been quite silent regarding the events in Syria. Wonder if they will quietly try to shape events post Assad?
His behavior is entirely rational in the context of the myriad of investigations he’ll have to face should he ever have to leave office. So he’ll keep pleasing his right wing coalition partners and invading the West Bank, taking more land in Syria fits into that goal. It’s also entirely likely that Israel will eventually over reach just as the other folk in the ME have over time.
HTS are not 'fellow Syrians' - they're violent jihadis with a direct lineage to ISIS and Al Qaeda. This is a disaster for the Syrian people - particularly their women and Christian communities - and the Middle East a whole.
By guaranteeing minority rights and focusing on good government, HTS has developed a reputation as *an actual government*, unlike Assad's gangster mafia.
Turns out the basics are what matters. Water, power, food, the postal service, and leaving people alone to practice their religion, and suddenly everyone wants you in power.
Al-Jolani is smart and practical, and is a pragmatist, not an ideologue.
It is a gross mistake to think of him merely as "former Al-Qaeda". He knows more about running a stable country than Netenyahu or Trump.
We'll see about that - the US turning off their murderous sanctions will no doubt make HTS look good for a while, but their Uzbek, Uighur, Iraqi, Libyan and other force members will run out of things to loot sooner or later. There's already evidence from Aleppo of those minority rights being trashed. I hope I'm wrong, I really do, but we've got the examples of Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Yemen and Libya to go on here.
Actually, smart people predicted that Homs and Damascus would fall quickly once Aleppo did. The real surprise is that Tartus and Latakia, supposedly the Alawite strongholds, overthrew Assad's government without a fight. Apparently even the Alawites hated Assad.
I knew 10 years ago that Assad was ONLY being propped up by Russia. I wasn't able to predict when Russia's propping up would fail, but once it failed, it was obvious that was the end for Assad as ruler of Syria.
I remember thinking at the time when I read the BBC article this is overly sensationalist and doesn’t correspond with what’s going on.
Like you say Ukraine is in a difficult situation. I would add that just because there hasn’t been a ‘breakthrough’ doesn’t mean there couldn’t be one, although based on the current situation I think it’s more likely to come in the form of increased rate of Russian gains using their current high casualty model than some lightning combined arms offensive.
The key point, however, is that inaccurate reporting is damaging as it shapes the narrative of the war which shapes perceptions, which in turn shapes the decisions made by policymakers.
As ever I appreciate the counter narrative you provide to the doom laden reporting.
The reporting is really important, as you say, because it informs the general discussion, and that filters very much to government. Thats one of the reasons I try to bang the drum about the fact that Ukraine can win.
As you noted, only .4 of 1 percent of Ukraine has been taken! To put that in US context, the Russians took 350,000 casualties to take the largest city in the land area in the US, Jacksonville, Fl, plus 20% extra. Challenge the NYT, BBC, Guardian to look that up on a map and then tell us this is a major success?
Thank you for your balanced, informed, and consistently accurate postings on Ukraine here and in other major publications. You are the best. This week a contributor to WAPO’s David Ignatius live chat described you as brilliant. Mr. Ignatius felt compelled to reply to that using the unsubtle quotation marks, as in ‘the “brilliant” Philips O!Brien.’ You are brilliant, and the work you do is essential and required reading.
Newsflash: AP just says that the Syrian regime has fallen!
The fortunes of war are so unpredictable—at least the timing. We had two years of stalemate in Ukraine, followed by a Russo-Syrian collapse in Syria. Not even Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) could have anticipated that the Syrian army would fight so poorly.
Turns out carpet bombing civilians and poison-gassing them and imprisoning people for decades for mild criticism of the government, things Assad did, is all *really unpopular*, including among military geniuses. Who knew? (Yeah, we all knew)
Everybody anticipated it. They fought poorly in all wars with Israel and then in the civil war. They were losing it a decade ago, but then Iran and Russia intervened. But later both Russia and Iran dramatically overestimated their own power and picked on, respectively, Ukraine and Israel. Russia has at least achieved some limited success (at very steep price), for Iran it just went from bad to worse (and we don't even know if Iran has hit rock bottom yet). And I would not call the outcome of Israel's fight with Iranian proxies (and Iran's own air defense system) unpredictable.
That said I don't think too many people anticipated the Syrian army and state to collapse so dramatically with hardly any fighting at all. I reckon if they had fought a bit this may have given time for Russia to intervene...if it could. I wouldn't have put it beyond Putin's ego to send the Russian troops in if he could have.
Very true. But depending on the attitude of local neighbors, replenishment even via a West Berlin style air bridge would have been difficult.
The air space around the EU is presumably closed to Russian combat / military transport aircraft. Ditto Turkey. Iraq wouldn’t likely let them overfly either. Ditto Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Israel.
So that leaves a narrow channel across the med which is a very circular route that the Russians would have to fly to get to their AFBs in Syria. The distances involved also rule out heavy tanks and limits gear that could be deployed. Etc.
Plus, the last thing Putin needs is more highly trained and valuable VDV troops getting ground up, potentially with a reversal of fates, ie public, slow execution of Russian nationals with maximum gore, just as the Wagner folk did to Syrians they didn’t like.
It would further underscore the myth that the Russians do a better job of protecting their soldiers, diplomatic folk, etc abroad than the west can by resorting to tactics so base that even the local crazies treat Russians as untouchable.
Importantly, air power that deliberately struck known and marked civilian infrastructure like hospitals.
Those guys would barrel bomb mother Theresa and the Air Force assets are likely the most ardent, die-hard assets that Assad had because the entire chain of command knows full well what might happen if they are exposed in public.
All of those folk are likely hanging from the door hinges as Il-76s and an-124 are trying to exfiltrate Russian nationals and higher ranking Syrian folk on the inside. But I doubt the Russians will take many Syrians, most have outlived their usefulness.
Most of the Syrian army is documented to have done one of the following four things:
(1) removed their uniforms, changed into civilian clothes, and deserted
(2) formally surrendered
(3) fled the country
(4) joined the rebels
This left the Russians and the Iranian-backed militias without local support. The Iranian-backed militias seem to have retreated to Iraq (handing over their equipment on the way), while the Russians ran to the coastal bases (but many are still surrounded, inland). HTS is letting the Russians leave.
If I was a Russian serviceman at any of those bases I wouldn't be wanting to go out and mingle with the public unless I had a few armoured vehicles with guns trained on any Syrian civilian who came close. I'm sure there's plenty of them who remember that Russia's intervention gave them and extra decade or so of Assad rule. It's going to take a lot of skilled diplomacy and plane loads of cash to persuade the new Syrian government to let them keep thier bases. Even then it may not work.
Those bases likely have more uses than one. The Americans would likely be willing to pay for the use of those bases if only to keep the Russians out and to wean their dependence on other local bases.
I really doubt that. I mean, after they deliberately bombed schools and hospitals. And Russia is still friendly with Iran but not particularly with any Sunni Arab country. Finally, the West already views the rebels very suspiciously. Why aggravate that by allowing Russia to stay? Most importantly, I don't think Turkey wants that, and it is now the most important external player (and supporter of some factions).
You know you're cheering on an organisation proscribed as terrorist under UK law don't you? An organisation whose leader still has a $10million US CIA bounty on his head? Funny old comment section this.
No Adrian, we're cheering the collapse of depicable, blood-drenched dictatorship and a major strategic reverse of two very malign actors in the world geo-politics (Russia and Iran). If you read the comments section closely you want find a single statement of support for any of the rebel factions, including the most victorious one.
Adrian, we realize that, for the most part, the saviors are/were also the oppressors at times. I think many factions with differing motives were able to agree on this one objective: to get Assad ousted. That was the hard part - to make Assad finally take advantage of his 2011 invitation to leave.
But now, the really difficult part begins. Making a government that can function. And forming a functional government with a lot of international interference most probably by Russia, Iran, and even France, who still feel they have a stake in Syria. Let alone do this with many sectarian issues which surfaced during the war dividing the Syrian people. The war wounds are still fresh for the Syrians.
If ousting Assad was hard and forming a functional government is difficult, then dealing with the Syrian refugees all over the world may take a miracle.
I don't know. This is what I see play out. I incline to pray. For Syria. And Gaza and for all the mess mankind makes in the name of power.
Syria is bombed out, has lots of IDPs, tons of destroyed infrastructure, 20 years of generational trauma as various factions waged their bloody battles and tyranny, etc. If a functional government emerges, it will be close to a miracle.
I look to east Germany circa 1989 that I think we can all agree was a semi functional central economy with standing houses, jobs, no ongoing war, etc. Bringing that third of the German landmass (and ~1/4 of the total population) up to west German standards pretty much bankrupted Germany.
So I wonder where the money will come from given that the Europeans are far more likely to invest in Ukraine and the east to help build a barrier to Russia. If the money comes from the Middle East, I expect more tribal / religious feuds on a proxy basis. Ie no lasting peace.
To your last paragraph. It takes a senior court in central Europe to finally say we are not ’aving it and anull the first round of an election due Russian interference
BtW what they doing was standard sowjet procedure during the cold ear Already everything forgotten?
Its a slow, painful learning curve. I am still optimistic that we get our act together.
I have not seen any politician that starts to role the pitch with ’peace dividend is a thing of the past ( when there was peace) now its higher taxes, more spending on defence and vigilance towards non democratic actors
Better--but we need to keep this in perspective. The Ukrainians are still not being supported as they should. The Biden administration has basically thrown in the towel and Trump still doesnt support them.
I think it may be much more possible now for Rubio to argue that the best way to complement economic pressure on China is to let Ukraine and Israel undermine Russia and Iran
I've just looked up the trade in Capatagon/Fenethylline. Assad's Syria is arguably the largest narco-state in the world. The trade in Cap is estimated at $57 billion USD a year with Assad manufacturing 80% of it. That's an annual income three times greater than all the Mexican cartels combined. And it's how he's kept his regime going.
The irony is that Cap is the drug of choice for militias on both sides this civil war (and pretty much everywhere else in the Levant and North Africa). So the rebels' fearless, almost reckless charge through Idlib and collapse of Assad's dictatorship was fuelled by the drug he manufactures.
Btw, Captagon is what suicide bombers are given to make sure they carry out their missions. And there are tabloid reports that the Crocus City Hall massacre in Moscow earlier this year was carried out by Jihadists stoked up on Cap.
Edit: I read further down and same article claims Assad's revenues from drug are $57 billion. So one or the other of numbers is wrong. Doesn't matter. Interesting to see that Cap pills with Fenethylline are more expensive to make, so market is flooded with fake pills made with cheaper amphetamines.
Trump decided to wear a navy suit and gold tie to the reopening of Notre Dame because those are the colors of the Notre Dame college football team. (I'd bet a large martini that this was his thinking).
How does Michael Korfman stay employed? That's the real question haunting Europr today.
He’s an actor. He chose a costume. But probably not to signal future-going support for Ukraine—maybe just to throw people off balance and generate some confusion?
350,000 losses for 2,700 sq km works out to an exchange rate of about 130 lost/sq km that Ukraine charges for Putin's advances. Is that perhaps the key metric of who is winning the land for losses aspect of the war?
I think the time when we respected the war coverage by over-worked and inexperienced reporters and editors is long gone. That the narrative of "inexorable Russian advance means imminent collapse" has proved impossible to kill despite the best efforts of the likes of Phillips is evidence of how deep-entrenched it has become. I have no way of proving it, but I suspect history will show it to be Russia's greatest and only triumph in this war. And by 'war', I mean information war.
Russia is not even the biggest loser in Syria. Over the 14 months since the October 7 attacks Iran has seen a dramatic collapse of its regional power, and it's not even guaranteed that the regime itself will survive for long, being now perceived as weak. As a result of their (mostly proxy) war against Israel, the ayatollahs now learn what FAFO means. No matter how bad the new Syrian regime will be domestically, the precipitous decline of Russian and Iranian ability to project power is very good strategic news for the West. It's also bad news for China, as its allies now have much less ability to create a big distraction in MENA when China needs it.
Iran has suffered a great deal as well--but I wonder (assuming Russia loses access to the bases) whether in concrete terms Russia is the bigger loser. Without those facilities, the geographical range of what it can try will be severely restricted. Overall--good news indeed!
That may depend on whether you look at absolute or proportional terms. Russia lost a lot of power in absolute terms, but Iran lost a great proportion of its power. Unlike for Russia, Middle East is the ONLY game for Iran. Now the Assad regime is gone, Hamas and Hezbollah are in bad shape (and Houthis have been damaged too), while some Arab air forces openly fly combat missions to defend Israel from Iran, and Israeli F-35's fly over Iran at will and destroy air defenses. And to think that ALL these setbacks have happened over the course of just 14 months! In comparison to this monumental strategic miscalculation, Putin does indeed remain a master strategist.
One can at least understand why Putin thought Ukraine was weak. But how on Earth could the ayatollahs have thought the same about Israel?!
The Iranians have backed themselves into a corner. This is the same danger China is facing, where even the appearance of weakness will be decried by ultranationalists. It effectively eliminates many avenues for compromise and rapprochement.
So leadership allows its hotheads to go on “Heia Safari!” as the Germans would say. Stir the pot a little here and there to have bread and circus for the folk back home, but crucially, without impacting same.
I don’t think anyone expected Israel to fly over Iran and selectively blow up pretty much all anti-aircraft assets as a show of force. Worse for Iran: there is no place to buy more of them on short notice since Russia has pretty much blown its stocks of s300 and s400 systems as well.
So now Iran literally lies bare when it comes to any strategic bombing campaign. The Israelis can hit them at will and the Iranians know it.
As for the biggest loser in all this, it seems that the chapter is not yet written. Yes, the Iranians and their proxies cannot stir up a conflict easily and quickly like they could before but at the same time the conflict is NOT resolved until we actually see the Alawaite areas agree to whatever the next Syrian government will be.
That may yet take years. I read reports elsewhere that the Alawaites have 20k troops, plenty of ammo, and the mountains at their disposal. Plus their backs literally to the sea. They may put up a much stiffer resistance out of necessity and fear than the rest of the Syrian army. But then again, if they got assurances re: mercy they too may decide to put down arms for the time being.
A Syria no longer aligned with Iran would likely be the best news yet for the tortured country that is Lebanon. Perpetually caught in the middle of multiple proxy wars, that place also finally deserves a rest.
Actually I saw some stories a couple of years ago about Israeli F-35's venturing into Iranian airspace just to see if they would be detected (just as with every BMW or Mercedes I ever rented in Germany you bet I found out just how fast it can go on the autobahn - and a stealth fighter is a lot cooler). Apparently, Israel was very satisfied with the results back then, so their return in force was indeed expected in certain contingencies.
I hope there's no fighting on the coastal plain. The anti-Assad coalition is very diverse, and it's quite perilous for the Sunni Arabs to go after any minorities. E.g. the Kurds may not like it, and they have quite an army too. The population in general may have little appetite for more civil war after 13 years. Turkey presumably does not want it either.
Lebanon may indeed be the greatest beneficiary if it manages to take full advantage of it. There's not only any Syrian occupation but even any threat thereof. Hezbollah is most unpopular ever, after blowing up half of Beirut a few years ago and provoking a war with Israel recently. And now it is in complete disarray, decimated, largely disarmed and with little prospect of resupply from Iran. As a minimum, the ceasefire is now likely to hold (those headbangers don't even have any place to flee to if everything goes very wrong for them). But if the Lebanese can finally get their act together and take advantage of the situation...
Alawite areas overthrew Assad without a fight, as it happens. There's going to be a unity government in Syria, except for the Turkish and Israeli invasions of Syria (SIGH)
The ayatollahs' primary external enemy is actually Saudi Arabia.
Israel is convenient for them to talk about because everyone in the Middle East detests the apartheid regime in Israel, but it's too far away to be truly relevant -- there was a similar dynamic in Africa for decades during the apartheid era of South Africa, where every African leader loved to call South Africa the enemy, but nobody actually cared about it except the immediately neighboring countries; they were concerned about their neighbors.
The actual primary enemy of the ayatollahs is, of course, the internal enemy: the forces of democracy and liberalism.
While losing Lebanese Hizbollah and losing influence in Syria is significant for the ayatollahs, as long as the new regimes are hostile to the Saudis, it's not necessarily fatal for them geopolitically.
The democratization is more dangerous to them from an internal politics point of view though.
This fear of democracy doesn't prevent the ayatollahs from supporting fairly-democratic Armenia against authoritarian Azerbaijan based on geopolitical interests though, so I think the geopolitical interests come first in the case of the ayatollahs. And that means as long as the new regimes are relatively anti-Saudi, they'll consider themselves to be doing OK. The new regime in Syria *is* anti-Saudi so Iran will open up relations with them and move on.
Israel is a democracy, not an apartheid regime. BTW Hegseth, Patel, Gabbard and RFK Jr. send their thanks to the anti-Israel Left for virtually guaranteeing their confirmation. Had the Left not vetoed nomination of a Jewish candidate for VP, Casey probably would have held on to his seat, and then a single GOP senator joining Collins and Murkowski could sink any nominee.
Hopefully women like Metzger will win the fight in Israel.
Netenyahu's police trampled her with a horse.
https://www.972mag.com/ayala-metzger-nir-oz-israeli-hostage-families/
Israel is an apartheid regime, in the opinion of the South Africans who lived through apartheid (including Desmond Tutu). They know.
If it were a non-apartheid democracy, everyone would have the right to vote, which they don't. The apartheid regime in South Africa had elections, too.
Netenyahu is transforming Israel into an actual dictatorship, though hopefully he won't succeed. There are lots of people in Israel protesting against him, most of whom do have the right to vote.
He is actually trying to imprison his peaceful politicial opponents. Yes, Jewish opponents. For speaking out against him.
I'm not going to listen to the opinion of the South Africans supporting Putin.
Every Israeli citizen has the right to vote. You must be referring to territories outside Israel under Israeli control (although Gaza was not for almost two decades before October 7).
I supported Israeli protesters from the start, but that does not mean Israel is a dictatorship or an apartheid regime.
Does it matter? The fact that Iran cannot even project power next door to protect Assad is telling of its weakness in the region as well as at home where domestic tensions over basic rights and the economy threaten the Mullahs
That's why I said we don't even known whether the regime has hit rock bottom yet. Its very survival is not guaranteed.
Very interesting update, many thanks, especially so as the Assad regime has now collapsed.
Will be very interesting to follow how, or if, Russia sets out to save its naval and air base. The HTS and other rebel groups are not likely to make it easy for them.
You make a very important point about Putin’s interference in elections in European countries that, he thinks, could be influenced to support Russia. Moldova only just passed a pro-EU referendum and re-elected a pro-EU president. Georgia has seen unending evening protests against the pro-Russian government’s decision to “postpone” accession negotiations with the EU until 2028. In both countries, there is clear evidence of Russian interference in the election process.
The most interesting case however is that of Romania, where none other than the Constitutional Court cancelled the first round of voting in the presidential election only two days before the second round was due to take place. According to many reports, Câlin Georgescu, the surprise pro-Russian winner of the first round, declared no election expenses and “only” posted videos to Tik-Tok! What he failed to say was that there was a massive attempt to echo his message by numerous “influencers” who were reportedly paid up to $50 000 each to do so.
The inference drawn by the Romanian intelligence services who made their findings available to the Constitutional Court is that this campaign was clearly financed by Russia.
One can only hope that this unprecedented intervention by an institution designed to protect democracy and the rule of law in an EU country will be a wake-up call to democracies all over Europe to scrutinise much more closely future election campaigns and call out Russian interference wherever and whenever it occurs.
The ability of Russia to manipulate democratic elections might be the greatest challenge that European and North American states are facing
And the US needs to wake up to this. As a country.
This is even worse for Russia now than if it would have happened three years ago. For three quarters of a century Soviet/Russian navy was able to operate in the Med even without any bases there - they would just sail out of Sevastopol. But in the Spring of 2022 Turkey closed the straits for Russian warships, so without Tartus, the Russians can only come to the Med from their Baltic or Arctic bases (and to back to them for any service and repairs). And there will be no airpower (unless they somehow make Kuzya operational again and capable of enduring a long deployment).
Yep--Russia is now at Turkey's beck and call when it comes to access to the Med.
Funny how Turkey about 250 years after Ekaterina had Potemkin take Ukraine and Crimea is getting payback of sorts.
I doubt anyone predicted just how quickly Aleppo, Homs, and now Damascus would fall. At the same time, I expect far greater potential resistance as the HTS and other fractions start to push into the Northwest of the country. That is the area that most benefited from the Assad regime.
It is entirely possible that the Alawaite fractions up there come to an agreement, just as the remaining civilian leadership did in Damascus but I kind of doubt it will be as easy up there vs. Damascus. The folk on the coast have far more to lose and much to fear from rebel forces after being directly responsible for much bloodshed and terror throughout the land.
It will also be hard to negotiate a peace without a handover or at least some sort of reckoning for those responsible re: gassing, bombing, mass-executing, torturing, etc their fellow Syrians. The army may have dissolved in plain sight within the cauldron of Damascus, it will be far harder to not associate the worst of the worst with the Alawaite areas. (deserved or not)
The meme machines are already making fun of how Assad and Zelenskyy took opposite tacks re: staying and fighting vs. emigrating with alacrity to safer areas. I expect Assad is not even in the country anymore.
Im no expert on Syrian politics, so dont want to guess. The speed of the collapse is the most stunning thing--people just gave up on the regime. There are reports btw, that Assad's plane might have been shot down. Who knows where he is?
He's in Moscow
Reportedly. Until someone that knows Assad well observes him in Moscow, it’s simply a Russian statement.
Will be interesting to see how long Assad will remain a useful asset to Putin. After all that peacocking when Yanukovych had to leave Ukraine, Y will undoubtedly chuckle every time he sees Assad and remind A just how dismissive A was of Y when he got kicked out of Ukraine.
I'm reminded of the adage that before a dictatorship falls it looks inconceivable. After it falls it looks inevitable. I anticipate a lot of people who we didn't hear a peep from a week ago loudly proclaiming they all foresaw it happening.
Almost certainly--and then they will say it is a sign of their brilliance
On the negative side, Tulsi can now say that her meeting with Assad is ancient history and completely irrelevant.
And the race to rewrite and unwrite what they have been writing for years, no doubt.
OK, then let me state that the fall of Putin's dictatorship is inconceivable :-)
;)
Oh I hope so Andrew, I really hope so.
Yes, this is exactly how so many dictators have fallen. And people always say the same thing. Trying to make predictions is a mug's game. It's just as possible Putin will fall from internal pressures like food prices (for example, the Great Egg Shortage this time last year which he rushed to remedy) as from the failure of his war in Ukraine. We won't know until the aftermath.
I have heard from reliable sources (aka voices inside my head) that when Putin offered to send more armaments, Assad replied, "I need a ride, not ammunition".
Yup, that’s one of the memes making the rounds. Thing is, Assad has several options re: where to go, but in each case the exile will be a golden cage.
Gone will be the days where he could go abroad with impunity even after killing so many fellow Syrians.
They will require paid protection 24x7 and there are literally millions of people who have a very personal stake in making him suffer, if possible. So it’s not only a threat against him, it also means his offspring. All in gilded cage.
It will be interesting to see what happens to the Narco market now that one of the biggest producers of illegal drugs may be going offline, if briefly.
It’s also notable that there have been zero verified sightings since the fall of Damascus. Russian pronouncements re same may be designed to buy Assad time as he tries to smuggle himself out of Damascus and into Alawite-controlled areas.
Besides, if the Russians claim that the sky is blue, it’s always good to go out and check. Anyhow, the mountains / guns / motivated Alawites may yet cause another slowdown in the resolution of the Syrian civil war but the Russian and Iranian withdrawal from the battlefield should give the rebels an advantage they’ve never had to date.
I wonder what interest the central Sunni government will have in dominating the Alawite enclave. Vengeance, of course, but do they really want to expend scarce resources and lives on it? Seems to me geographical partition, or at least accommodation settles the civil war. The Sunni majority back in power creates stability.
The issue is access to the sea, ease with which the Russians, Iranians, etc. can resupply the place with massive amounts of ordinance and "tourists". That could prolong the civil war considerably.
Currently, neither Russia or Iran are in a position to effectively help Assad. Hence, they're turning tail. But if Assad manages to hang on (and that is a big if) then there may be a future opportunity for either to stage a return.
One of the key questions will be how the allegedly-powerful crime syndicates in Syria will align themselves, i.e. will the new government try to rebuild the country without relying on being one of the biggest narco-traffickers in the ME?
That makes sense. I'm assuming that the Alawites would have to allow the central government access and control of the formally Russian naval base in Tartus.
Russia issued a statement saying that Assad gave instructions foe peaceful transfer of power. So they clearly are not going to insist that he's still the legitimate president (like they did with Yanukovich in 2014). But then operating military bases without permission from Damascus becomes tricky. And they can never trust the locals not to cut a deal with the government in Damascus.
The Russians don't actually have massive amounts of ordnance. They use all they have (and can get from Norks) in Ukraine.
This comment section is a strange den of Al Qaeda supporters Bre.ndan Whelen and Ian Henderson (OPCW whistleblowers) have shown the chemical weapons stories to be fabrications.
Adrian--youre back! And as moderate as always. Worth noting that that former head of Mi6 is claiming that HTS has moved a long way from Al Qaeda. https://x.com/SaulStaniforth/status/1865688363358917087
You are likely right about the Alwaite minority in the NW and they have benefited over decades from the Assad family’s rule. But what will be interesting from my perspective will be how the Kurds will factor into all this. If Turkey plays its cards right with HTS, they will allow the Kurds to have a region within Syria and a home for the PPK to mitigate that perceived problem and Turkey then becomes the big regional winner. Unfortunately I expect Erdogan to be an idiot and then turn the HTS against the Kurds creating more chaos for everybody.
It’s not clear to me how that will all resolve, regardless of what Turkey wants its proxies to accomplish. The PKK may not enjoy a lot of love in the Syrian highlands it occupies since most of the leaders appear to be Turkish and hence may feel more like an occupying force than liberators.
That said, an occupying force was preferable to Assad, so that kept the peace - until now. It wouldn’t surprise me if the locals gave the PKK the boot, with a lot of support from the Turks. That would achieve two aims by Turkey - eliminating the PKK along much of its southern flank and potentially shelving Kurdish independence dreams until after Erdogan is gone.
All are possibilities, but the Kurds can also claim they have been in the highland region for many years and it is an extension of the Kurdish region in Iraq. Only time will tell, but it will definitely be chaotic and shifting rapidly. It is interesting Israel has been quite silent regarding the events in Syria. Wonder if they will quietly try to shape events post Assad?
They allegedly are taking more territory beyond the Golan Heights.
Yep, Israel's invading Syria, beyond the Golan Heights.
Netenyahu is gross. I mean, this is utterly predictable behavior, but it's worth remembering he's every bit as bad as Putin.
His behavior is entirely rational in the context of the myriad of investigations he’ll have to face should he ever have to leave office. So he’ll keep pleasing his right wing coalition partners and invading the West Bank, taking more land in Syria fits into that goal. It’s also entirely likely that Israel will eventually over reach just as the other folk in the ME have over time.
HTS are not 'fellow Syrians' - they're violent jihadis with a direct lineage to ISIS and Al Qaeda. This is a disaster for the Syrian people - particularly their women and Christian communities - and the Middle East a whole.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2024/12/the-end-of-pluralism-in-the-middle-east/
Wrong. Their history does not tell the true story of what they're up to now.
For people who have the will to read:
https://bsky.app/profile/charleslister1.bsky.social/post/3lcl25jwtqs27
By guaranteeing minority rights and focusing on good government, HTS has developed a reputation as *an actual government*, unlike Assad's gangster mafia.
Turns out the basics are what matters. Water, power, food, the postal service, and leaving people alone to practice their religion, and suddenly everyone wants you in power.
Al-Jolani is smart and practical, and is a pragmatist, not an ideologue.
It is a gross mistake to think of him merely as "former Al-Qaeda". He knows more about running a stable country than Netenyahu or Trump.
We'll see about that - the US turning off their murderous sanctions will no doubt make HTS look good for a while, but their Uzbek, Uighur, Iraqi, Libyan and other force members will run out of things to loot sooner or later. There's already evidence from Aleppo of those minority rights being trashed. I hope I'm wrong, I really do, but we've got the examples of Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Yemen and Libya to go on here.
Actually, smart people predicted that Homs and Damascus would fall quickly once Aleppo did. The real surprise is that Tartus and Latakia, supposedly the Alawite strongholds, overthrew Assad's government without a fight. Apparently even the Alawites hated Assad.
I knew 10 years ago that Assad was ONLY being propped up by Russia. I wasn't able to predict when Russia's propping up would fail, but once it failed, it was obvious that was the end for Assad as ruler of Syria.
I remember thinking at the time when I read the BBC article this is overly sensationalist and doesn’t correspond with what’s going on.
Like you say Ukraine is in a difficult situation. I would add that just because there hasn’t been a ‘breakthrough’ doesn’t mean there couldn’t be one, although based on the current situation I think it’s more likely to come in the form of increased rate of Russian gains using their current high casualty model than some lightning combined arms offensive.
The key point, however, is that inaccurate reporting is damaging as it shapes the narrative of the war which shapes perceptions, which in turn shapes the decisions made by policymakers.
As ever I appreciate the counter narrative you provide to the doom laden reporting.
The reporting is really important, as you say, because it informs the general discussion, and that filters very much to government. Thats one of the reasons I try to bang the drum about the fact that Ukraine can win.
Or put in another way…130 casualties per sq km taken.
As you noted, only .4 of 1 percent of Ukraine has been taken! To put that in US context, the Russians took 350,000 casualties to take the largest city in the land area in the US, Jacksonville, Fl, plus 20% extra. Challenge the NYT, BBC, Guardian to look that up on a map and then tell us this is a major success?
At this point, the Russians have no troops or units trained for a combined arms operations.
Nope--yet people talk like they will just streak ahead like some well trained unit. Its really weird
I wonder if it ever had, but there's no doubt they have any trained at the moment!
They certainly were not as well trained to start with anyway!
Thank you for your balanced, informed, and consistently accurate postings on Ukraine here and in other major publications. You are the best. This week a contributor to WAPO’s David Ignatius live chat described you as brilliant. Mr. Ignatius felt compelled to reply to that using the unsubtle quotation marks, as in ‘the “brilliant” Philips O!Brien.’ You are brilliant, and the work you do is essential and required reading.
Appreciate that Gerry. I hadnt heard about the Ignatius podcast--but not surprised by his reaction. He is a mouthpiece of the establishment
Newsflash: AP just says that the Syrian regime has fallen!
The fortunes of war are so unpredictable—at least the timing. We had two years of stalemate in Ukraine, followed by a Russo-Syrian collapse in Syria. Not even Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) could have anticipated that the Syrian army would fight so poorly.
Yep--its quite the fast moving day. The collapse of the Syrian army is extremely telling of the state of the regime
It's amazing that there are so many excellent military leaders within 500 miles of Damascus, and Assad didn't seem to have one of them.
Turns out carpet bombing civilians and poison-gassing them and imprisoning people for decades for mild criticism of the government, things Assad did, is all *really unpopular*, including among military geniuses. Who knew? (Yeah, we all knew)
Everybody anticipated it. They fought poorly in all wars with Israel and then in the civil war. They were losing it a decade ago, but then Iran and Russia intervened. But later both Russia and Iran dramatically overestimated their own power and picked on, respectively, Ukraine and Israel. Russia has at least achieved some limited success (at very steep price), for Iran it just went from bad to worse (and we don't even know if Iran has hit rock bottom yet). And I would not call the outcome of Israel's fight with Iranian proxies (and Iran's own air defense system) unpredictable.
That said I don't think too many people anticipated the Syrian army and state to collapse so dramatically with hardly any fighting at all. I reckon if they had fought a bit this may have given time for Russia to intervene...if it could. I wouldn't have put it beyond Putin's ego to send the Russian troops in if he could have.
Very true. But depending on the attitude of local neighbors, replenishment even via a West Berlin style air bridge would have been difficult.
The air space around the EU is presumably closed to Russian combat / military transport aircraft. Ditto Turkey. Iraq wouldn’t likely let them overfly either. Ditto Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Israel.
So that leaves a narrow channel across the med which is a very circular route that the Russians would have to fly to get to their AFBs in Syria. The distances involved also rule out heavy tanks and limits gear that could be deployed. Etc.
Plus, the last thing Putin needs is more highly trained and valuable VDV troops getting ground up, potentially with a reversal of fates, ie public, slow execution of Russian nationals with maximum gore, just as the Wagner folk did to Syrians they didn’t like.
It would further underscore the myth that the Russians do a better job of protecting their soldiers, diplomatic folk, etc abroad than the west can by resorting to tactics so base that even the local crazies treat Russians as untouchable.
OK Constantin. He couldn't have even if he had the time.
I'm not sure the Syrian army did fight poorly Kathleen. I'm waiting for confirmation that they fought at all!
Why would they fight without air support?
Well, the rebels don't have air support, and they still fight.
They are better motivated. And at least they were no longer opposed by significant air power.
Importantly, air power that deliberately struck known and marked civilian infrastructure like hospitals.
Those guys would barrel bomb mother Theresa and the Air Force assets are likely the most ardent, die-hard assets that Assad had because the entire chain of command knows full well what might happen if they are exposed in public.
All of those folk are likely hanging from the door hinges as Il-76s and an-124 are trying to exfiltrate Russian nationals and higher ranking Syrian folk on the inside. But I doubt the Russians will take many Syrians, most have outlived their usefulness.
Putin can't be THAT heartless! Besides, he actually has a great need for experienced war criminals right now.
Most of the Syrian army is documented to have done one of the following four things:
(1) removed their uniforms, changed into civilian clothes, and deserted
(2) formally surrendered
(3) fled the country
(4) joined the rebels
This left the Russians and the Iranian-backed militias without local support. The Iranian-backed militias seem to have retreated to Iraq (handing over their equipment on the way), while the Russians ran to the coastal bases (but many are still surrounded, inland). HTS is letting the Russians leave.
If I was a Russian serviceman at any of those bases I wouldn't be wanting to go out and mingle with the public unless I had a few armoured vehicles with guns trained on any Syrian civilian who came close. I'm sure there's plenty of them who remember that Russia's intervention gave them and extra decade or so of Assad rule. It's going to take a lot of skilled diplomacy and plane loads of cash to persuade the new Syrian government to let them keep thier bases. Even then it may not work.
The fate of those bases will be fascinating. Cant see why the new Syrian government would want to keep them--but I could be wrong
Those bases likely have more uses than one. The Americans would likely be willing to pay for the use of those bases if only to keep the Russians out and to wean their dependence on other local bases.
I really doubt that. I mean, after they deliberately bombed schools and hospitals. And Russia is still friendly with Iran but not particularly with any Sunni Arab country. Finally, the West already views the rebels very suspiciously. Why aggravate that by allowing Russia to stay? Most importantly, I don't think Turkey wants that, and it is now the most important external player (and supporter of some factions).
Yep
They are all good reasons Andrew but I'll wait to see the Russian serviceman flying home before I pour myelf a celebratory drink.
Me too.
A lack of certainty? I thought you foresaw everything.
Putin befriended the Taliban. There's no reason he can't at least try to befriend an Al Qaeda offshoot.
But you must make a firm prediction or your reputation for knowing everything in advance goes right down the tubes.
You know you're cheering on an organisation proscribed as terrorist under UK law don't you? An organisation whose leader still has a $10million US CIA bounty on his head? Funny old comment section this.
No Adrian, we're cheering the collapse of depicable, blood-drenched dictatorship and a major strategic reverse of two very malign actors in the world geo-politics (Russia and Iran). If you read the comments section closely you want find a single statement of support for any of the rebel factions, including the most victorious one.
Adrian, we realize that, for the most part, the saviors are/were also the oppressors at times. I think many factions with differing motives were able to agree on this one objective: to get Assad ousted. That was the hard part - to make Assad finally take advantage of his 2011 invitation to leave.
But now, the really difficult part begins. Making a government that can function. And forming a functional government with a lot of international interference most probably by Russia, Iran, and even France, who still feel they have a stake in Syria. Let alone do this with many sectarian issues which surfaced during the war dividing the Syrian people. The war wounds are still fresh for the Syrians.
If ousting Assad was hard and forming a functional government is difficult, then dealing with the Syrian refugees all over the world may take a miracle.
I don't know. This is what I see play out. I incline to pray. For Syria. And Gaza and for all the mess mankind makes in the name of power.
Agreed.
Syria is bombed out, has lots of IDPs, tons of destroyed infrastructure, 20 years of generational trauma as various factions waged their bloody battles and tyranny, etc. If a functional government emerges, it will be close to a miracle.
I look to east Germany circa 1989 that I think we can all agree was a semi functional central economy with standing houses, jobs, no ongoing war, etc. Bringing that third of the German landmass (and ~1/4 of the total population) up to west German standards pretty much bankrupted Germany.
So I wonder where the money will come from given that the Europeans are far more likely to invest in Ukraine and the east to help build a barrier to Russia. If the money comes from the Middle East, I expect more tribal / religious feuds on a proxy basis. Ie no lasting peace.
G Renner, let's definitely add Ukraine to that list.
One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter, and the government lists of "terrorist organizations" have always been a joke
Perhaps I haven't been alert enough, but I haven't noticed any reports on clashes between Ukrainian and North Korean forces.
Theyve been happening I believe--but the lines in Kursk have stabilized
ISW Dec 10:
Paparo noted that North Korean soldiers remain in combat zones, likely in reference to Kursk Oblast, but are not yet actively fighting.
To your last paragraph. It takes a senior court in central Europe to finally say we are not ’aving it and anull the first round of an election due Russian interference
BtW what they doing was standard sowjet procedure during the cold ear Already everything forgotten?
The inability of Europe to stand up for itself is sad.
Its a slow, painful learning curve. I am still optimistic that we get our act together.
I have not seen any politician that starts to role the pitch with ’peace dividend is a thing of the past ( when there was peace) now its higher taxes, more spending on defence and vigilance towards non democratic actors
Its all looking a lot better for Ukraine. Way better!
Better--but we need to keep this in perspective. The Ukrainians are still not being supported as they should. The Biden administration has basically thrown in the towel and Trump still doesnt support them.
I think it may be much more possible now for Rubio to argue that the best way to complement economic pressure on China is to let Ukraine and Israel undermine Russia and Iran
I've just looked up the trade in Capatagon/Fenethylline. Assad's Syria is arguably the largest narco-state in the world. The trade in Cap is estimated at $57 billion USD a year with Assad manufacturing 80% of it. That's an annual income three times greater than all the Mexican cartels combined. And it's how he's kept his regime going.
The irony is that Cap is the drug of choice for militias on both sides this civil war (and pretty much everywhere else in the Levant and North Africa). So the rebels' fearless, almost reckless charge through Idlib and collapse of Assad's dictatorship was fuelled by the drug he manufactures.
Btw, Captagon is what suicide bombers are given to make sure they carry out their missions. And there are tabloid reports that the Crocus City Hall massacre in Moscow earlier this year was carried out by Jihadists stoked up on Cap.
wiki says global market for cap is $5.7 billion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fenethylline
I didn't know anything about this drug.
Edit: I read further down and same article claims Assad's revenues from drug are $57 billion. So one or the other of numbers is wrong. Doesn't matter. Interesting to see that Cap pills with Fenethylline are more expensive to make, so market is flooded with fake pills made with cheaper amphetamines.
Nope. I though that too. Double-checked it. Multiple sources agree. Post your sources (other than Wikipedia) if you find some that still disagree.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/tackling-the-illicit-drug-trade-fuelling-assads-war-machine
Trump decided to wear a navy suit and gold tie to the reopening of Notre Dame because those are the colors of the Notre Dame college football team. (I'd bet a large martini that this was his thinking).
How does Michael Korfman stay employed? That's the real question haunting Europr today.
Re. clothes: I don't think Trump wanted to make a statement, agreed, but I also don't think, 100%, that it was random.
Your guess is as good as mine
He’s an actor. He chose a costume. But probably not to signal future-going support for Ukraine—maybe just to throw people off balance and generate some confusion?
350,000 losses for 2,700 sq km works out to an exchange rate of about 130 lost/sq km that Ukraine charges for Putin's advances. Is that perhaps the key metric of who is winning the land for losses aspect of the war?
I think the time when we respected the war coverage by over-worked and inexperienced reporters and editors is long gone. That the narrative of "inexorable Russian advance means imminent collapse" has proved impossible to kill despite the best efforts of the likes of Phillips is evidence of how deep-entrenched it has become. I have no way of proving it, but I suspect history will show it to be Russia's greatest and only triumph in this war. And by 'war', I mean information war.