At the start of this century we got used to people power being able to topple dictators. Putin watched the orange revolution and euromaidan with particular horror. His life’s work is to build tactics to stop and reverse this trend and we have to acknowledge how successful he has been. Democracy has been in retreat globally since he launched his invasion of Georgia. And now he’s hoping to finish off that once promising democracy. Our leaders have barely even registered the challenge never mind put together a coherent strategy to push back.
A trump victory would represent almost total victory for him. He’d have successfully subverted the world’s strongest democracy and in the process Ukraine and Europe would be abandoned to his mercy.
Hoping our American friends can see sense before it’s too late
Well, the most important thing right now is to elect Harris, and unfortunately two reputable polls have just shown her tied nationally. Basically at this point we have to hope that some combination of the undecided voters heavily breaking for her and higher turnout due to abortion and better GOTV operation will put he on top.
My wife filled out my mail-in ballot a week ago. I mustered the focus to sign it.
Women are just more organized and responsible people on the whole. Maybe it has to do with their traditional roles managing the details of family. The Republicans are relying on young men to show up and vote. The Dems superpower is the more reliable voting of women. I've never seen a more gender split election in my lifetime.
Yeah, the GOP is making the wrong bet. Young men are not easily distractable, prone to procrastination and are not all that motivated to vote - unlike young women who are very directly affected by abortion bans.
You said it. I think women will be the deciding factor in the coming Harris victory. I truly think we will see again how wrong the polls are and it will be a rout for Kamala
Probably within the margin of error actually. I expect her to outperform the polls by a couple points, but 5% seems to be the absolute ceiling for Kamala's margin of victory, as much as I would love to see fascism repudiated in a landslide.
Nov 4th will tell. And I expect a victory. A big one. trump is so erratic in his decline and it's on display. Outside of maggot world, I can't see anyone rational voting for him, his decline and his con.
But you are the kind of person needed to vote in the most important US election in history. I'm glad you will be there for it. I have to sit on the sidelines.
I'm not merely here, but in the city where the whole election may be decided if Trump wins one of the three "Blue Wall" states. About 10% of North Carolina population live in Mecklenburg County (consisting mostly of Charlotte). The state is very close (Trump won it by 1.3% in 2020 and now leads by about as much in the polls), and here in Charlotte we have a huge number of black voters whose turnout may be the decisive factor and lots of very educated white Republican leaning voters who may be open to voting for Kamala. Well, the County already accepted my ballot, so it will be counted, probably before the election day. The polls close at 7:30, and by 8 there may already be clear from key precincts what's going on.
Ir doesn’t seem as if anyone is confident in their predictions. It’s going to be rough going, even if Kamala wins. Where did we in the US go so wrong? A society full of people with Grievances? People who have no understanding of history? People who don’t care because they think that they will be OK?
We need reforms. But the Left also needs to become more responsible. E.g. its position on transgender issues is indefensible. We've just learned that an important study on puberty blockers has been hidden for years because the results contradicted leftist orthodoxy. As a co-author of dozens of medical studies and a member of the editorial board of Frontiers in Public Health, I'm very troubled by this. Not only because of the immediate effect of thousands of children continuing to receive wrong and potentially harmful treatment, but because it also undermines public confidence in science (and specifically my efforts to eliminate cervical cancer through vaccination).
A combination of the slaver Confederacy types (which wasn't crushed enough in 1865) and plain old delusional death cult members. There is no public civics education to speak of.
I'm of two minds about 1865. National reconciliation was very important. Especially since the government, of course, did not have the luxury of knowing that there would be no foreign war for 33 years (and we can't be sure there would have been none in the alternative history with a guerrilla war in the South triggered by harsh treatment of the defeated Confederates).
I also thought the tragedy was that Lincoln put Johnson on the ticket in 1864 so he took over after the assassination. He handed all the plantations back to the slave owners instead of to the previous slaves as promised. And then simply forgave all the confederates so reconstruction was really killed at birth. It’s an interesting counterfactual anyway if Lincoln or another republican had been in charge of the process
Lincoln also wanted to forgive. He explicitly wanted Jeff Davis to be allowed to flee the country. One of the problems was that the racist attitudes were prevalent in all parts of the country. So there was no chance of true racial equality in that era. Back then even white Catholics were not viewed as truly equal. At least, fortunately, most people saw slavery as too much.
So, I've studied this some. There was a real "out of sight out of mind" thing going on. Most people in the North were tolerating slavery as long as it was happening "somewhere else".
For some reason, the Southern plantation slavers insisted on EXPANDING slavery and forcing it on the whole country. This was the point of the Dred Scott Decision. Lincoln talks about this in the Cooper Union Speech. THIS was too much for most people.
After the war, Jim Crow was allowed to be established in the South. But the difference is that they never tried to force Jim Crow into Minnesota or Illinois or New York, which is essentially why they got away with it.
It still wouldn't have happened the same way if the Confederate leadership, such as Nathan Bedford Forrest (the KKK founder), had been executed as they should have been. Without the hardcore pro-slavery leadership, the paramilitary establishment of Jim Crow would probably never have gotten as far as it did. The country would still have been racist, but it probably wouldn't have been the "prison leasing" level neo-slavery crap which actually happened in the South.
(BTW, there was a guerrilla war in the South anyway, in the actual history. If the Union had executed the traitorous Confederate leadership, it would have made those guerrillas, such as the KKK, a lot less powerful, a lot weaker.)
Yeah he wasn’t vindictive and was for letting Davis slip away but I think he would have been slower to re-admit the slave states and would at least have kept the promise to give the plantation land to the former slaves. Their leaders thought that was the most important thing because it would give them an economic foundation in the country instead of being forced back into semi bondage again working on the land. Would always have been a long hard slog to racial justice but would have been a major difference to what happened where a lot of the gains of the war were squandered
Actually November 5, Guy Fawkes Day. The question is whether the American political system get blown up or we manage to stop the plotters at the last moment.
Many thanks for this update. Looking at the state of the campaign in the U.S, it is indeed hard not to be pessimistic about the outcome for Ukraine of a Trump victory on November 5th. However, from a European perspective, there does seem to be room for measured optimism. The Georgian election is definitely a setback, but given the obvious majority in favour of integration with the west and the clear and documented evidence of election rigging, the future is not perhaps as somber as you make out. And the counter example of Moldova is there to remind us that a strong leader with popular support can resist enormous Russian pressure and win. With a positive result in the EU referendum and 42% of the vote in the first round of the presidential poll, Maia Sandu looks set to win the run-off later this month. On Hungary, Orban may be Trump’s favourite European leader, but he is increasingly not that of his fellow countrymen. Despite all his attempts to subvert democracy, Hungary still holds regular local and national elections, political opposition is building inside the country and outside it, the EU and NATO institutions have both political and economic influence that should not be underestimated.
On Ukraine, where the stakes are the highest, as you make abundantly clear, it is heartening to read a few days ago in “The Economist” a piece by its defence editor, Shashank Joshi, who, by his own admission, has always been on the “gloomier end of the spectrum” about the outcome of the war but who has clearly been encouraged by his conversations at the recent Riga security conference. Reflecting on the opinions expressed by many European analysts there, he writes “ …there is no alternative to dogged resistance. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has not changed his war aims, remains unwilling to countenance a peace deal that would guarantee Ukraine’s long-term security and believes that time is on his side. But if Mr Putin can be convinced that Ukraine can stay on the battlefield for years to come, and that Russian gains will be limited and come at enormous cost, including a mounting economic and political cost at home, he might be forced to change course—to moderate his war aims, and abandon his quest to subjugate Ukraine.
In the event of a Trump victory, he makes two important points about US assistance: “American officials are quietly preparing to rush aid to Ukraine before inauguration day in that event”, but equally importantly, particularly for Americans who tend to lump all European countries together into the same entity, “…what is clear to me is that eastern European states will not go along quietly with American capitulation. They will resist any bad deal and will urge Ukraine to fight on. In that scenario, we might see a split in Europe. The choices made by Britain, France and Germany could be decisive. And it is vital to remember that the idea of crippling war fatigue is a myth. In a recent poll 65% of Germans surveyed said that military aid for Ukraine ought to remain at current levels; 38% wanted it raised”.
So, despite the pain, the suffering and the mounting casualties, Ukraine has everything to gain by fighting on. Their considerable achievements so far in this war are rarely given the credit they deserve in the western press, which is why it is essential that you continue to put forward the contrarian view that we are privileged to share every week.
For Democracy, if Ukraine loses it will be even worse than people realize.
What people forgot is that Ukraine is the last and only successful democratic revolution done by the people that is still standing.
Tunesia: Autoritarian "democracy"
Libia: warlord state
Egypt: dictatorship
Syria: dictatorship, civil war
Belrus: dictatorship, failed revolution
Between al these stands Ukraine as a successful example of the people implementing more democracy.
It's why Putin, Orban, Fico, Trump want to see Ukraine destroyed so badly. It represents a successful example of the people rising up against a strongman and winning. So if Ukraine loses or is sold out. Democracy will lose it's only succes story in the last 20 years.
It will create the perception that the march of towards autoritarianism is inevitable.
agreed. this is why there is so much motivation to turn the united states into a dictatorship. if that happens, democracy’s prospects around the world are grim.
i know that it sounds dramatic, but it could be the beginning of the great decline of human civilization. what remaining forces could realistically oppose it?
I really do feel like we are watching the world go to shit right now.
The causes are many but ultimately you get the politicians you deserve. In 2016 it was fair for people to say they didn’t know how Trump would behave and what he would do but that’s no longer the case.
The Democrats have made a lot of mistakes but voters will also have to own this. None of which, of course, helps Ukraine. My only hope is that the remaining European powers who are supportive of Kyiv are able to do enough but I see no evidence of this.
Sadly, it seems we are going to sell Ukraine out and they will be forced into some type of ‘peace’ agreement on Putin’s terms. Really really hope I’m wrong.
I don't agree Dems have made a lot of mistakes. Biden governed rather well under the circumstances he faced - Ukraine policy aside. (The public doesn't care about that. ) The major error I see is so many Dems going with Jill Biden's theory in 2022 that Biden had 6 more good years left in those tires.
If Harris can eke out a victory we can reverse the damage. It's 50-50, lets see how it lands.
I should add I think the unconditional support for Israel has also damaged the Dems, particularly amongst young progressive and Arab American voters (see what’s happening in Michigan).
Other than possibly encouraging the Israelis to exercise restraint in their recent military strikes on Iran I’m struggling to think what concessions Biden has gained from Netanyahu.
Further, the unconditional support for Israel when it is highly likely the IDF are committing breaches of international humanitarian law (see justification for the U.K. Government decision to suspends arms exports to Israel) has damaged American moral standing.
I think it makes other countries hesitant to lend their support when America is genuinely fighting the ‘good fight’ as is in the case of Ukraine.
Strong supporters of Israel claim the problem is that Biden's support has been too conditional. And I'm not referring to Republican partisans.
If Biden pursued the policy you prefer the Dems would have no chance in November. I'm not even certain that the case for international support would be much different if the U.S. is viewed as abandoning their closest ally. You think the anti Iran coalition in the mideast will be impressed?
I think Israel is on a terrible path. One expects U.S. support to dwindle over time as Israel deservedly becomes even more of a pariah. But could we actually be seeing the ascendecy of a Putin-Trump-Netanyahu ++ axis of authoritarianism?
Harris could have opted to have a Palestinian speaker at the DNC without jeopardising the election. It might have been largely symbolic but it would have made a difference.
Re the conditionality of support, people will argue whatever they want. I guess the key is what facts are there to support their arguments? Biden’s entire approach appears to have been based on trying to show outward support for Bibi in the hope it would yield concessions. Other than the statement made last week about potentially restricting arms transfers if Israel did not allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza I’m struggling to think of what conditions the U.S. has imposed on its support?
As for selling out its closest ally, I don’t think that’s how the majority of the world would see it. People look at US support for Israel as exemplifying hypocrisy. It makes arguments about human rights and standing up for international law seem shallow and disingenuous.
She made the judgment that a Palestinian activist would have been a net harm to the Dem party. You claim it would have helped. I suggest that Dems who made this choice are calculating without bias towards a cause.
That goes without saying. I guess the question is was it the right call? Time will tell but based on yesterday’s reports that Muslim leaders in Michigan (a state where 500,000 Arab Americans live and that Biden won by only 154,000 votes) are endorsing Trump due to anger about the war in Gaza I would argue it wasn’t.
"Strong supporters of Israel" who are as extreme as you describe are fascist genocide supporters; they're voting for Trump already because they like his white supremacy.
History will judge Biden as an absolute disaster President due to his actions on Covid alone. He killed a million + Americans by refusing to even talk about respirator masks and air filters.
It occurs to me, even as a novice studying history, that we have lived through a remarkable time of relative peace. We have had cold wars and bitter wars in some isolation but not all these fissures in the fabric of the world order happening at the same time and at such intensity. Plus we are exposed to more details about things that are changing. Wars and conflicts might be the more natural state. I am not sure where it comes from but humans seem predisposed to wanting to OWN the world. People just do not listen to the better angels.
I think one of the US led international order’s biggest achievements (the other being limiting nuclear proliferation) has been the relative peace that has endured since WW2 (Vietnam, Iraq et al aside).
I agree that war is much more the historical norm. A key question will be whether nuclear deterrence continues to prevent wars to between the ‘great powers’.
The really sad thing is that wars are not a natural thing; rather, they demand the active decisions of parties to engage in war. And one would think that people might remember that wars = more wars. It occurred to me today that I entered adulthood walking in peace marches and that it seems more likely every day that I will march again.
The West is in an existential fight for democracy...not just in Ukraine...but within its own borders. In almost all western democracies there is a growing right wing movement. We must ask: what is the cause? It is not just the result of Russian and Chinese propaganda. There seems to be a disconcerting trend among the general public to ignore facts and reality in favour of "wishful thinking" and outright falsehoods. The ability of "carnival barkers" like Trump, Orban, Le Pen "et al." to sway the masses is an indictment not only of failures in educational systems but also of governments increasingly "owned" by corporations and billionaires. The world's MSM also plays a major part as it, too, has fallen to the likes of Murdoch, Musk, Bezos and others whose interests are less about defending and supporting democracy and more about acquiring greater wealth and subsequent power. In short, we are in a crisis that, in some ways, is greater than that of Ukraine but which has been revealed because of Ukraine...if that makes any sense. For the last few years I have been referring to the situation the West finds itself in as the "Age of UnEnlightenment". A dystopian view, I admit, but one that seems increasingly true.
I think this is somewhat exgagerated. Le Pen was rejected. The US, it's a cult, not support for the right. The maggots have no clue about political ideology. So that leaves a stolen election in Georgia (possibly), Slovakia, Hungary and.....???
Moldava chose the EU, Ukraine is figjting to be democratic and regain it's territory. Where is the right being truly embraced by the masses?
You're quite right about the wishful-thinking problem.
The Covid pandemic is still happening. It's airborne. Aerosols. People are pretending otherwise. The vaccines don't stop you from getting infected, or from dying from Covid, though they help a bit.
Wear a respirator mask (N95, P100). Anyone who isn't... is engaging in wishful thinking.
It appears that the amount of Ukrainian land that Russia is able to capture is the equivalent of the size of one grave for every soldier it has sacrificed in the process.
It is a moral imperative to elect Harris. The ongoing comparison of "policies" between Trump and Harris is a moral equivalency failure by the media. There is no policy debate. There are Harris policies one may not agree with but they are not irrational policies. Trump policy is an end of the Western era.
He's a narcissist and one thing about the US justice system. If they file something against someone, that smoke is usually a raging fire. I have no clue how they found out about musk and putin, but if the NSA has intercepts, I can't see things going well for him.
That being said, you're right. Presume innocence until guilt is proven in court. It's only fair, no matter how much I despite the cretin.
Whether he has actually had the years secret conversations as reported in the Wall Street Journal, which he denies -- well, I'm pretty sure he did. There appears to be tons of evidence
Almost every article I read about social discord, troublesome elections, trade conflicts, etc., anywhere in the world, includes "China and Russia" as supporters of the discord. North Korea often appears along with Iran. You know the cast of characters better than I.
Perhaps my judgment is too harsh, but it seems those supporting democracy are in a dither, absorbed with their own infighting. I can only surmise that changes to the world order are messy and often horrible things -- uncomfortable as hell to live through. And wars breed more wars.
In 7 Italian cities yesterday, thousands marched for peace in the world. Now that is an idea I can support.
ROME (AP) — Tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets in seven Italian cities on Saturday calling for an immediate cease-fire in the Middle East, Ukraine and all global conflicts.
Peaceful rallies were held in Rome, Turin, Milan, Florence, Bari, Palermo and Cagliari, with the support of hundreds of associations committed to peace, disarmament and human rights.
The marches came in response to escalating violence in the Middle East and growing conflicts worldwide and denounced the diminished role of the United Nations on the global scene.
In Rome, a few thousand demonstrators marched waving a giant rainbow flag in front of the Colosseum and a banner with the slogan: “Let’s stop wars. The time for peace is now!”
Due to its inherent openness, democracies are inherently easy to subvert from within. Was no different in FRG, circa 1930. Was heartened to see counter demonstrations in FRG against AFD just as folk in USA are organizing to resist GOP excesses like Dobbs, etc.
Presently, we also lack a strong free press the world over thanks to the internet companies siphoning off all the advertisement revenue. Once papers are poor, it’s trivial for the rich to pick papers up for a penny and then exert undue editorial influence (LA times and WaPo most recently)
Lastly, voters have intentionally siloed themselves to hear only what they want to hear. That only keeps reinforcing perceptions that things are not as they should be. Substack is part of that trend, ie who do you subscribe to vs. who do you run across serendipitously in the pages of a newspaper while reading other articles?
As one economist put it, there is no doubt that the American economy is booming relative to the rest of the world. But the fruits of that wealth are unevenly distributed due to a tax code that benefits the rich with loopholes, exemptions, and other fun stuff.
He suggested a 30% minimum income tax for any annual income over $2MM. While attractive on the surface, that proposal doesn’t address how Elon and like bazillionnaires can borrow against their stock, then claim interest payments on their IRS tax docs, etc. Or eternal trusts cloaked as documented by the New Yorker.
There is much to undo in the tax code that benefits
We in the US have been increasingly governed by the (ultra)wealthy...for their perceived interests and often against the interests of the rest of us. Their increased wealth given to them by bought politicians (financially and/or ideologically) got them the Senate which got them the Supreme Court which got them Citizens United... and the rest is history. It might just get them Trump. Insufficiently regulated capitalism is the fundamental problem. The logic of capitalism...and its modus operandi...is greed...for both money AND power. For democracy not only to survive but also to thrive, there must be a way to moderate the increasing momentum of capitalism/greed and the maniacal push of the wealthy for total control. (And yes, the irony is that the rich would be controlled by the authoritarian they install rather than vice versa.) But how can a democracy put in place the required safeguards against the ruthless march of unregulated capitalism? Aye, that is the question. A humane tax policy into the constitution itself? Of course the US wouldn't be so close to fascist autocracy if an earlier generation had removed the electoral college from the equation. Alas the great structural reforms seemingly needed to perpetuate our democratic experiment seem almost impossible to put into place.
Orban's takeover was calculated and competently executed while he was popular (Paul Krugman was putting in guest blogs from an expert as it happened).
Georgian Dream is... a hell of a lot less competent and in a much worse position. They can't quietly establish *control* like Orban did, because he did that *while he was popular*.
Instead, I expect Georgia will get a civil war. While Armenia and Azerbaijan formally congratulated Georgian Dream on their victory, both countries universally (people and government) hate Russia now and need nothing from Russia -- and they're tied up in their own issues, so they won't get involved. Russia itself can't very well send troops into Georgia, because Russia doesn't HAVE any troops left after sending everyone to Ukraine. So that makes it a proper civil war without significant outside troops. (Unless Turkiye decides to step in, which seems unlikely.)
Especially with the PRESIDENT OF GEORGIA denouncing the stolen election, and opposing the leader of the Parliament who is from Georgian Dream. That's civil war material. Both sides have a claim, and both sides have prominent leaders.
I don't have a good picture on what percentage of the military-trained people in Georgia support the election theft and what percentage oppose it, but I would strongly bet that there are enough on both sides to make it a real civil war.
At the start of this century we got used to people power being able to topple dictators. Putin watched the orange revolution and euromaidan with particular horror. His life’s work is to build tactics to stop and reverse this trend and we have to acknowledge how successful he has been. Democracy has been in retreat globally since he launched his invasion of Georgia. And now he’s hoping to finish off that once promising democracy. Our leaders have barely even registered the challenge never mind put together a coherent strategy to push back.
A trump victory would represent almost total victory for him. He’d have successfully subverted the world’s strongest democracy and in the process Ukraine and Europe would be abandoned to his mercy.
Hoping our American friends can see sense before it’s too late
Well, the most important thing right now is to elect Harris, and unfortunately two reputable polls have just shown her tied nationally. Basically at this point we have to hope that some combination of the undecided voters heavily breaking for her and higher turnout due to abortion and better GOTV operation will put he on top.
My wife filled out my mail-in ballot a week ago. I mustered the focus to sign it.
Women are just more organized and responsible people on the whole. Maybe it has to do with their traditional roles managing the details of family. The Republicans are relying on young men to show up and vote. The Dems superpower is the more reliable voting of women. I've never seen a more gender split election in my lifetime.
Yeah, the GOP is making the wrong bet. Young men are not easily distractable, prone to procrastination and are not all that motivated to vote - unlike young women who are very directly affected by abortion bans.
Did you mean “easily distractable”?
Yes, of course. I was just typing slower than thinking, as always (and already thinking about the 'not motivated' part).
Thanks for voting, Richard. You might change your opinion about the organizational skills of women if you knew me, though. ^^
You said it. I think women will be the deciding factor in the coming Harris victory. I truly think we will see again how wrong the polls are and it will be a rout for Kamala
Probably within the margin of error actually. I expect her to outperform the polls by a couple points, but 5% seems to be the absolute ceiling for Kamala's margin of victory, as much as I would love to see fascism repudiated in a landslide.
Nov 4th will tell. And I expect a victory. A big one. trump is so erratic in his decline and it's on display. Outside of maggot world, I can't see anyone rational voting for him, his decline and his con.
Polls are very unreliable nowadays due to extremely high nonresponse rates (less than 10% of people will actually respond to polling).
Just gotta run the campaign, do the GOTV, do the election protection (stopping voter suppression, etc.), and count the results.
Yes, of course. Still, it's scary. I wish I never actually got to vote in the most important election in history.
But you are the kind of person needed to vote in the most important US election in history. I'm glad you will be there for it. I have to sit on the sidelines.
I'm not merely here, but in the city where the whole election may be decided if Trump wins one of the three "Blue Wall" states. About 10% of North Carolina population live in Mecklenburg County (consisting mostly of Charlotte). The state is very close (Trump won it by 1.3% in 2020 and now leads by about as much in the polls), and here in Charlotte we have a huge number of black voters whose turnout may be the decisive factor and lots of very educated white Republican leaning voters who may be open to voting for Kamala. Well, the County already accepted my ballot, so it will be counted, probably before the election day. The polls close at 7:30, and by 8 there may already be clear from key precincts what's going on.
Exactly.
Ir doesn’t seem as if anyone is confident in their predictions. It’s going to be rough going, even if Kamala wins. Where did we in the US go so wrong? A society full of people with Grievances? People who have no understanding of history? People who don’t care because they think that they will be OK?
We need reforms. But the Left also needs to become more responsible. E.g. its position on transgender issues is indefensible. We've just learned that an important study on puberty blockers has been hidden for years because the results contradicted leftist orthodoxy. As a co-author of dozens of medical studies and a member of the editorial board of Frontiers in Public Health, I'm very troubled by this. Not only because of the immediate effect of thousands of children continuing to receive wrong and potentially harmful treatment, but because it also undermines public confidence in science (and specifically my efforts to eliminate cervical cancer through vaccination).
A combination of the slaver Confederacy types (which wasn't crushed enough in 1865) and plain old delusional death cult members. There is no public civics education to speak of.
Yep 💯%
I'm of two minds about 1865. National reconciliation was very important. Especially since the government, of course, did not have the luxury of knowing that there would be no foreign war for 33 years (and we can't be sure there would have been none in the alternative history with a guerrilla war in the South triggered by harsh treatment of the defeated Confederates).
I also thought the tragedy was that Lincoln put Johnson on the ticket in 1864 so he took over after the assassination. He handed all the plantations back to the slave owners instead of to the previous slaves as promised. And then simply forgave all the confederates so reconstruction was really killed at birth. It’s an interesting counterfactual anyway if Lincoln or another republican had been in charge of the process
Lincoln also wanted to forgive. He explicitly wanted Jeff Davis to be allowed to flee the country. One of the problems was that the racist attitudes were prevalent in all parts of the country. So there was no chance of true racial equality in that era. Back then even white Catholics were not viewed as truly equal. At least, fortunately, most people saw slavery as too much.
So, I've studied this some. There was a real "out of sight out of mind" thing going on. Most people in the North were tolerating slavery as long as it was happening "somewhere else".
For some reason, the Southern plantation slavers insisted on EXPANDING slavery and forcing it on the whole country. This was the point of the Dred Scott Decision. Lincoln talks about this in the Cooper Union Speech. THIS was too much for most people.
After the war, Jim Crow was allowed to be established in the South. But the difference is that they never tried to force Jim Crow into Minnesota or Illinois or New York, which is essentially why they got away with it.
It still wouldn't have happened the same way if the Confederate leadership, such as Nathan Bedford Forrest (the KKK founder), had been executed as they should have been. Without the hardcore pro-slavery leadership, the paramilitary establishment of Jim Crow would probably never have gotten as far as it did. The country would still have been racist, but it probably wouldn't have been the "prison leasing" level neo-slavery crap which actually happened in the South.
(BTW, there was a guerrilla war in the South anyway, in the actual history. If the Union had executed the traitorous Confederate leadership, it would have made those guerrillas, such as the KKK, a lot less powerful, a lot weaker.)
Yeah he wasn’t vindictive and was for letting Davis slip away but I think he would have been slower to re-admit the slave states and would at least have kept the promise to give the plantation land to the former slaves. Their leaders thought that was the most important thing because it would give them an economic foundation in the country instead of being forced back into semi bondage again working on the land. Would always have been a long hard slog to racial justice but would have been a major difference to what happened where a lot of the gains of the war were squandered
When a society starts underfunding education, you end up in a mess like this.
Polls don't vote. They've been wrong for 8 years now.
The only poll that counts is the tally taken on Nov 4th.
Actually November 5, Guy Fawkes Day. The question is whether the American political system get blown up or we manage to stop the plotters at the last moment.
Many thanks for this update. Looking at the state of the campaign in the U.S, it is indeed hard not to be pessimistic about the outcome for Ukraine of a Trump victory on November 5th. However, from a European perspective, there does seem to be room for measured optimism. The Georgian election is definitely a setback, but given the obvious majority in favour of integration with the west and the clear and documented evidence of election rigging, the future is not perhaps as somber as you make out. And the counter example of Moldova is there to remind us that a strong leader with popular support can resist enormous Russian pressure and win. With a positive result in the EU referendum and 42% of the vote in the first round of the presidential poll, Maia Sandu looks set to win the run-off later this month. On Hungary, Orban may be Trump’s favourite European leader, but he is increasingly not that of his fellow countrymen. Despite all his attempts to subvert democracy, Hungary still holds regular local and national elections, political opposition is building inside the country and outside it, the EU and NATO institutions have both political and economic influence that should not be underestimated.
On Ukraine, where the stakes are the highest, as you make abundantly clear, it is heartening to read a few days ago in “The Economist” a piece by its defence editor, Shashank Joshi, who, by his own admission, has always been on the “gloomier end of the spectrum” about the outcome of the war but who has clearly been encouraged by his conversations at the recent Riga security conference. Reflecting on the opinions expressed by many European analysts there, he writes “ …there is no alternative to dogged resistance. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has not changed his war aims, remains unwilling to countenance a peace deal that would guarantee Ukraine’s long-term security and believes that time is on his side. But if Mr Putin can be convinced that Ukraine can stay on the battlefield for years to come, and that Russian gains will be limited and come at enormous cost, including a mounting economic and political cost at home, he might be forced to change course—to moderate his war aims, and abandon his quest to subjugate Ukraine.
In the event of a Trump victory, he makes two important points about US assistance: “American officials are quietly preparing to rush aid to Ukraine before inauguration day in that event”, but equally importantly, particularly for Americans who tend to lump all European countries together into the same entity, “…what is clear to me is that eastern European states will not go along quietly with American capitulation. They will resist any bad deal and will urge Ukraine to fight on. In that scenario, we might see a split in Europe. The choices made by Britain, France and Germany could be decisive. And it is vital to remember that the idea of crippling war fatigue is a myth. In a recent poll 65% of Germans surveyed said that military aid for Ukraine ought to remain at current levels; 38% wanted it raised”.
So, despite the pain, the suffering and the mounting casualties, Ukraine has everything to gain by fighting on. Their considerable achievements so far in this war are rarely given the credit they deserve in the western press, which is why it is essential that you continue to put forward the contrarian view that we are privileged to share every week.
For Democracy, if Ukraine loses it will be even worse than people realize.
What people forgot is that Ukraine is the last and only successful democratic revolution done by the people that is still standing.
Tunesia: Autoritarian "democracy"
Libia: warlord state
Egypt: dictatorship
Syria: dictatorship, civil war
Belrus: dictatorship, failed revolution
Between al these stands Ukraine as a successful example of the people implementing more democracy.
It's why Putin, Orban, Fico, Trump want to see Ukraine destroyed so badly. It represents a successful example of the people rising up against a strongman and winning. So if Ukraine loses or is sold out. Democracy will lose it's only succes story in the last 20 years.
It will create the perception that the march of towards autoritarianism is inevitable.
agreed. this is why there is so much motivation to turn the united states into a dictatorship. if that happens, democracy’s prospects around the world are grim.
i know that it sounds dramatic, but it could be the beginning of the great decline of human civilization. what remaining forces could realistically oppose it?
I really do feel like we are watching the world go to shit right now.
The causes are many but ultimately you get the politicians you deserve. In 2016 it was fair for people to say they didn’t know how Trump would behave and what he would do but that’s no longer the case.
The Democrats have made a lot of mistakes but voters will also have to own this. None of which, of course, helps Ukraine. My only hope is that the remaining European powers who are supportive of Kyiv are able to do enough but I see no evidence of this.
Sadly, it seems we are going to sell Ukraine out and they will be forced into some type of ‘peace’ agreement on Putin’s terms. Really really hope I’m wrong.
I don't agree Dems have made a lot of mistakes. Biden governed rather well under the circumstances he faced - Ukraine policy aside. (The public doesn't care about that. ) The major error I see is so many Dems going with Jill Biden's theory in 2022 that Biden had 6 more good years left in those tires.
If Harris can eke out a victory we can reverse the damage. It's 50-50, lets see how it lands.
I should add I think the unconditional support for Israel has also damaged the Dems, particularly amongst young progressive and Arab American voters (see what’s happening in Michigan).
Other than possibly encouraging the Israelis to exercise restraint in their recent military strikes on Iran I’m struggling to think what concessions Biden has gained from Netanyahu.
Further, the unconditional support for Israel when it is highly likely the IDF are committing breaches of international humanitarian law (see justification for the U.K. Government decision to suspends arms exports to Israel) has damaged American moral standing.
I think it makes other countries hesitant to lend their support when America is genuinely fighting the ‘good fight’ as is in the case of Ukraine.
Strong supporters of Israel claim the problem is that Biden's support has been too conditional. And I'm not referring to Republican partisans.
If Biden pursued the policy you prefer the Dems would have no chance in November. I'm not even certain that the case for international support would be much different if the U.S. is viewed as abandoning their closest ally. You think the anti Iran coalition in the mideast will be impressed?
I think Israel is on a terrible path. One expects U.S. support to dwindle over time as Israel deservedly becomes even more of a pariah. But could we actually be seeing the ascendecy of a Putin-Trump-Netanyahu ++ axis of authoritarianism?
Harris could have opted to have a Palestinian speaker at the DNC without jeopardising the election. It might have been largely symbolic but it would have made a difference.
Re the conditionality of support, people will argue whatever they want. I guess the key is what facts are there to support their arguments? Biden’s entire approach appears to have been based on trying to show outward support for Bibi in the hope it would yield concessions. Other than the statement made last week about potentially restricting arms transfers if Israel did not allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza I’m struggling to think of what conditions the U.S. has imposed on its support?
As for selling out its closest ally, I don’t think that’s how the majority of the world would see it. People look at US support for Israel as exemplifying hypocrisy. It makes arguments about human rights and standing up for international law seem shallow and disingenuous.
She made the judgment that a Palestinian activist would have been a net harm to the Dem party. You claim it would have helped. I suggest that Dems who made this choice are calculating without bias towards a cause.
That goes without saying. I guess the question is was it the right call? Time will tell but based on yesterday’s reports that Muslim leaders in Michigan (a state where 500,000 Arab Americans live and that Biden won by only 154,000 votes) are endorsing Trump due to anger about the war in Gaza I would argue it wasn’t.
"Strong supporters of Israel" who are as extreme as you describe are fascist genocide supporters; they're voting for Trump already because they like his white supremacy.
I don’t disagree with you on the record of governance Richard. I actually think history will judge Biden more kindly than the polls/media did.
For me, the excessive risk aversion vis-à-vis Ukraine and the hesitancy to arm the Ukrainians to win that stemmed from that are big mistakes.
Further, as you state the failure of the party apparatus to get rid of Biden earlier and allow for a proper primary process were big errors.
Finally, I think the Dems have been unable to create an effective narrative to support their campaign and counter Trump’s bullshit.
History will judge Biden as an absolute disaster President due to his actions on Covid alone. He killed a million + Americans by refusing to even talk about respirator masks and air filters.
It occurs to me, even as a novice studying history, that we have lived through a remarkable time of relative peace. We have had cold wars and bitter wars in some isolation but not all these fissures in the fabric of the world order happening at the same time and at such intensity. Plus we are exposed to more details about things that are changing. Wars and conflicts might be the more natural state. I am not sure where it comes from but humans seem predisposed to wanting to OWN the world. People just do not listen to the better angels.
I think one of the US led international order’s biggest achievements (the other being limiting nuclear proliferation) has been the relative peace that has endured since WW2 (Vietnam, Iraq et al aside).
I agree that war is much more the historical norm. A key question will be whether nuclear deterrence continues to prevent wars to between the ‘great powers’.
The really sad thing is that wars are not a natural thing; rather, they demand the active decisions of parties to engage in war. And one would think that people might remember that wars = more wars. It occurred to me today that I entered adulthood walking in peace marches and that it seems more likely every day that I will march again.
I wonder, even in the rest of nature, there is conflict over territory.
We, on the other hand have no excuse. We are intelligent and should know that discussion trumps war any day.
The West is in an existential fight for democracy...not just in Ukraine...but within its own borders. In almost all western democracies there is a growing right wing movement. We must ask: what is the cause? It is not just the result of Russian and Chinese propaganda. There seems to be a disconcerting trend among the general public to ignore facts and reality in favour of "wishful thinking" and outright falsehoods. The ability of "carnival barkers" like Trump, Orban, Le Pen "et al." to sway the masses is an indictment not only of failures in educational systems but also of governments increasingly "owned" by corporations and billionaires. The world's MSM also plays a major part as it, too, has fallen to the likes of Murdoch, Musk, Bezos and others whose interests are less about defending and supporting democracy and more about acquiring greater wealth and subsequent power. In short, we are in a crisis that, in some ways, is greater than that of Ukraine but which has been revealed because of Ukraine...if that makes any sense. For the last few years I have been referring to the situation the West finds itself in as the "Age of UnEnlightenment". A dystopian view, I admit, but one that seems increasingly true.
I think this is somewhat exgagerated. Le Pen was rejected. The US, it's a cult, not support for the right. The maggots have no clue about political ideology. So that leaves a stolen election in Georgia (possibly), Slovakia, Hungary and.....???
Moldava chose the EU, Ukraine is figjting to be democratic and regain it's territory. Where is the right being truly embraced by the masses?
You're quite right about the wishful-thinking problem.
The Covid pandemic is still happening. It's airborne. Aerosols. People are pretending otherwise. The vaccines don't stop you from getting infected, or from dying from Covid, though they help a bit.
Wear a respirator mask (N95, P100). Anyone who isn't... is engaging in wishful thinking.
It appears that the amount of Ukrainian land that Russia is able to capture is the equivalent of the size of one grave for every soldier it has sacrificed in the process.
It is a moral imperative to elect Harris. The ongoing comparison of "policies" between Trump and Harris is a moral equivalency failure by the media. There is no policy debate. There are Harris policies one may not agree with but they are not irrational policies. Trump policy is an end of the Western era.
Was the Musk/Putin connection actually confirmed? I have seen rumours/newspaper articles, but no actual validation of it.
Doj has opened an investigation. I hope the communications were picked up by the NSA.
Well, until the investigation concludes, I will not believe newspaper rumours. People attack Musk left and right, with crazy things.
He's a narcissist and one thing about the US justice system. If they file something against someone, that smoke is usually a raging fire. I have no clue how they found out about musk and putin, but if the NSA has intercepts, I can't see things going well for him.
That being said, you're right. Presume innocence until guilt is proven in court. It's only fair, no matter how much I despite the cretin.
Musk ADMITTED that he talked to Putin.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63225781
Whether he has actually had the years secret conversations as reported in the Wall Street Journal, which he denies -- well, I'm pretty sure he did. There appears to be tons of evidence
Almost every article I read about social discord, troublesome elections, trade conflicts, etc., anywhere in the world, includes "China and Russia" as supporters of the discord. North Korea often appears along with Iran. You know the cast of characters better than I.
Perhaps my judgment is too harsh, but it seems those supporting democracy are in a dither, absorbed with their own infighting. I can only surmise that changes to the world order are messy and often horrible things -- uncomfortable as hell to live through. And wars breed more wars.
In 7 Italian cities yesterday, thousands marched for peace in the world. Now that is an idea I can support.
ROME (AP) — Tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets in seven Italian cities on Saturday calling for an immediate cease-fire in the Middle East, Ukraine and all global conflicts.
Peaceful rallies were held in Rome, Turin, Milan, Florence, Bari, Palermo and Cagliari, with the support of hundreds of associations committed to peace, disarmament and human rights.
The marches came in response to escalating violence in the Middle East and growing conflicts worldwide and denounced the diminished role of the United Nations on the global scene.
In Rome, a few thousand demonstrators marched waving a giant rainbow flag in front of the Colosseum and a banner with the slogan: “Let’s stop wars. The time for peace is now!”
Due to its inherent openness, democracies are inherently easy to subvert from within. Was no different in FRG, circa 1930. Was heartened to see counter demonstrations in FRG against AFD just as folk in USA are organizing to resist GOP excesses like Dobbs, etc.
Presently, we also lack a strong free press the world over thanks to the internet companies siphoning off all the advertisement revenue. Once papers are poor, it’s trivial for the rich to pick papers up for a penny and then exert undue editorial influence (LA times and WaPo most recently)
Lastly, voters have intentionally siloed themselves to hear only what they want to hear. That only keeps reinforcing perceptions that things are not as they should be. Substack is part of that trend, ie who do you subscribe to vs. who do you run across serendipitously in the pages of a newspaper while reading other articles?
As one economist put it, there is no doubt that the American economy is booming relative to the rest of the world. But the fruits of that wealth are unevenly distributed due to a tax code that benefits the rich with loopholes, exemptions, and other fun stuff.
He suggested a 30% minimum income tax for any annual income over $2MM. While attractive on the surface, that proposal doesn’t address how Elon and like bazillionnaires can borrow against their stock, then claim interest payments on their IRS tax docs, etc. Or eternal trusts cloaked as documented by the New Yorker.
There is much to undo in the tax code that benefits
interest groups disproportionately.
We in the US have been increasingly governed by the (ultra)wealthy...for their perceived interests and often against the interests of the rest of us. Their increased wealth given to them by bought politicians (financially and/or ideologically) got them the Senate which got them the Supreme Court which got them Citizens United... and the rest is history. It might just get them Trump. Insufficiently regulated capitalism is the fundamental problem. The logic of capitalism...and its modus operandi...is greed...for both money AND power. For democracy not only to survive but also to thrive, there must be a way to moderate the increasing momentum of capitalism/greed and the maniacal push of the wealthy for total control. (And yes, the irony is that the rich would be controlled by the authoritarian they install rather than vice versa.) But how can a democracy put in place the required safeguards against the ruthless march of unregulated capitalism? Aye, that is the question. A humane tax policy into the constitution itself? Of course the US wouldn't be so close to fascist autocracy if an earlier generation had removed the electoral college from the equation. Alas the great structural reforms seemingly needed to perpetuate our democratic experiment seem almost impossible to put into place.
And ... this is only the money we see or think we see. Imagine if we could track dark money and laundered money.
Thank you for your perspectives and interesting points to ponder and research. Great reply!
Orban's takeover was calculated and competently executed while he was popular (Paul Krugman was putting in guest blogs from an expert as it happened).
Georgian Dream is... a hell of a lot less competent and in a much worse position. They can't quietly establish *control* like Orban did, because he did that *while he was popular*.
Instead, I expect Georgia will get a civil war. While Armenia and Azerbaijan formally congratulated Georgian Dream on their victory, both countries universally (people and government) hate Russia now and need nothing from Russia -- and they're tied up in their own issues, so they won't get involved. Russia itself can't very well send troops into Georgia, because Russia doesn't HAVE any troops left after sending everyone to Ukraine. So that makes it a proper civil war without significant outside troops. (Unless Turkiye decides to step in, which seems unlikely.)
Especially with the PRESIDENT OF GEORGIA denouncing the stolen election, and opposing the leader of the Parliament who is from Georgian Dream. That's civil war material. Both sides have a claim, and both sides have prominent leaders.
I don't have a good picture on what percentage of the military-trained people in Georgia support the election theft and what percentage oppose it, but I would strongly bet that there are enough on both sides to make it a real civil war.