Hi Everyone,
there has been lots of speculation for months about what Donald Trump’s Plan for Ukraine might look like. I know, I’ve taken part in the discussions. The reality is, though, that the more details emerge about the thinking of the Trump Administration figures, the more it seems that all of it has been wasted speculation. The vision that Trump wants to impose is basically the same one that has been there for a long time, certainly since last June. At that time General Kellogg released a sketch “peace” plan for Ukraine which laid out a possible Trump plan. I wrote this piece on it then.
That peace plan gave Putin most of what he wanted and Ukraine very little. I summarized its finding in four points back then.
So in summation the peace deal is:
Russia gets a frozen conflict on the present lines—with time to rebuild its military
Ukraine cannot and should not liberate any of its territory while Putin lives
Ukraine is kept out of NATO
Russia gets some (but not total) sanctions relief
And we can say now that this is the foundation of every Trump peace plan we have heard since. Indeed, if you listened to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth today you would see that this is basically where the US government is at. Arguably, in fact, Hegseth outlined a future peace plan that would be even worse that this.
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