The Ends, Ways and Means of Ukrainian Strategy

The 4 possible scenarios and the complexity of planning.

Hello all,

Fighting a war is always an unstable and dynamic process. Things happen that are not expected and there are geopolitical events (countries switching sides, some entering alliances, some leaving) that can cause chaos and major adjustments. That being said, Ukraine (and the nation’s that want it to “win” the war) are presented with an extreme task of planning in the coming months—in some ways unprecedented. There are three very different scenarios that could come about, each of which would require a very different response almost totally different response. There is even be a fourth which I’ve not seen mentioned anywhere, but is a definite possibility.

Means-Ways-Ends and the Making of Strategy

Strategy is often described as involving Means, Ways and Ends. In this framework, strategy involves coming up with a plan for using your resources (your means) in a certain manner (your ways) to achieve a strategic goal (your ends). Its a nice theory though I would say it has some issues when it comes to imposing a coherency on strategy that is rarely there. I’m addressing this issue my next book, called The Strategists, which will be published by Penguin/Random House this coming summer.¹ Here is the proposed cover (it might change). I hope you like it!

Btw, I will be talking more about this book in the coming months, as it contains many of my ideas on how strategy really operates (its even more chaotic than you think), by looking at these 5, how their different strategic ideas were formed and then how they tried to implemen them.

That being said, even if it has problems, the Means-Ways-Ends paradigm provides a useful model for examining the strategic choices confronting a state at war—such as Ukraine today or the major powers in World War II.

The main difference between World War II is that Ukraine has far more instability in knowing what its means will be to achieve its ends using different ways. The major powers in World War II at least had some reasonable idea of what they would be producing for war equipment or receiving in aid (such as lend-lease) in the coming months. They tended to screw up badly in in how they used that production, their ways. Ukraine is living in a completely different strategic world. Ukraine has no idea what it will have in terms of means (the equipment it will need to fight the war) because it has no idea what the US will do in terms of aid. I’m struggling to think of a more difficult strategic planning situation.

US HIMARS of the type supplied to Ukraine. Will Ukraine receive no more of these, or the ammunition that goes with them?, or Will they receive lots more with even more varied and longer range ammunition? Ukraine must strategically plan for totally different worlds