Hi Professor O'Brien. Your point about Douthat being too smart not to know better is the killer. What we're watching is the launch of an entire genre -- the "he meant to do that" foreign policy commentary -- and Thiessen will absolutely be the next media priest offering absolution for Trump's insanity.
Trump spent fifteen months treating Ukraine as a problem to be liquidated. He courted Putin, ambushed Zelensky in the Oval Office, suspended intelligence sharing at the worst possible moments.
Now that the Ukrainians have held the line despite all of this, Douthat retrofits the chaos as strategy. The bullying becomes "a geopolitical accelerant." The aid cuts become "rebalancing." Trump's open hostility toward Kyiv becomes a kind of tough-love mentorship program.
Douthat's tell is the opening concession that "Ukraine's champions would recoil from this description." When you have to begin a column by acknowledging that the people who actually follow the subject will find your argument absurd, you're audibly realigning your priors with the new battlefield reality and gaslighting your readers about the seams.
Exactly what I was thinking, Dominique! For the Party, reality "is not external," that is, there is no such thing as objective truth— truth that exists outside of each of our minds. Truth is what the Party says it is. The goal of Newspeak is to limit people's vocabulary. Humans cannot think without language; the impoverishment of language necessarily leads to the impoverishment of thinking. People whose thinking has become impoverished cannot challenge the Party.
And there's more - the "Epic Fury" campaign, conducted with the sure and certain knowledge that Iran would block the strait, has been a dramatic "accelerant" to the adoption of EVs, solar panels and other renewable technologies world-wide.
I would not be surprised if Trump apologists begin to argue that Trump's anti alternate energy rhetoric and even the whole Iran war have really been a genius political ploy to move the world away from fossil fuels and toward cleaner energy sources.
Douthat & Thiessen are the mainstream 'intellectual' pillars of Trumpism. May we use the "three-legged stool" metaphor for this? ...that there really is no 3rd leg is why their arguments typically fall flat
I wonder if Trump's view on Ukraine was altered by increases in PURL purchasing power by a big donation from Canada? World trade is moving away from the US. Surely someone in the government has seen how things are moving? Trade agreements will keep the US sidelined for the foreseeable future.
Always look forward to your insights and would welcome further mid-week posts. And this one, even if it is meant to keep us up to date about the Iran conflict has some very valuable inputs about Ukraine and Putin. Many thanks !
- US congressional aid (the tiny amount approved as part of the budget process to help increase production volumes of high priority items) is trickling out amidst congressional pressure
- I recall hearing European countries publicly discussing an audit of their PURL contracts with the US. This was some time ago, I presume designed to apply pressure.
I read a lengthy article yesterday that Putin has set things up like a crime family so that no one of the five defined groups dare make a move. I don't know. I rejoiced when Yeltsin was able to stand up against rebellion, but we know he proved to be more a drunk then a democrat -- he's the one who gave the world Putin. Who follows Putin? More to the point, what follows Putin.
Although the time frames are drastically different. It's hard not to think Trump is stuck in his violence against Iran, just like Putin is stuck in Ukraine. It seems both face a decision of either drastically escalating or somehow walking away and trying to claim victory. Also, it's difficult to know why Trump's tone about Ukraine and Zelenskyy has changed a bit. The well-known edge the US maintains with its extensive intelligence-gathering capabilities could very well be informing the Trump folks that there has indeed been a visible and measurable change on the battlefield favoring Ukraine. The large-scale strikes into the Russian hinterlands are definitely a factor in all of this.
I don t believe Putin can escalate. He has already tried every umspeakable tactic and yet now it is yet more obvious that his defeat is inevitable and gathering pace. How differently it could have turned out if he had reached out a hand of friemdship to Ukraine and the EU. The same for Trump. Neither can even rreach out a hand of friendship to their own country. Survival of the fittest turns out as always to mean survival of the friemdliest.
It's hard to see how Putin could escalate short of the nuclear option. The entire Russian economy is straining to try to maintain the aggression against Ukraine.
I don't understand the US presidential system but is there any way Vance can stage a democratic coup using 26th ammendment after the mid terms based on Trump's mental incapacity or some such and then pull out of Iran unilaterally saying Don betrayed MAGA's commitment to no more foreign wars?
Or could it require a self interested Vance realising he's more likely to be president this way than through an election. And persuading others he is their best hope to jump from the sinking ship?
He might indeed. I wasn't suggesting he'd be an improvement, though conceivably he could be more predictable. Rather I was asking if it might happen. As a Brit our politics is currently very focused on whether Keir Starmer will be ousted by Labour MPs following today's local council elections. I knew it was much harder to depose a US President but understood mental incapacity was one potential route. I wondered if anyone felt internal MAGA politics might lead to that if Trump continues to flounder.
It was just a few days ago that Trump had another perfect call with Putin and then decided to pull US troops out of Germany. It doesn’t seem typical of Trump to evaluate facts and rethink his position that quickly. But who knows what Trump’s calculations are.
One of the bigger ironies is that almost no one in the administration has crawled further out publicly on the “corrupt Ukrainians are our real enemies” branch than Vance. It would be darkly funny if Trump cuts that branch off. Maybe this is part of trying to position Don Jr as the new crown prince.
And yes, Don Jr has also spewed a lot of anti Ukrainian rhetoric, but as a Trump he reserves the right to have nothing he says taken seriously. Vance doesn’t have that privilege.
I am puzzled by any suggestion that Trump “thinks” what he says. What he says seems only ever to reflect what he believes is in his self interest. He hates Zelenskyy and loves Putin. This much is clear. And so his words must serve some other self interest. It is possible that he is trying out some formulation to cope with Ukraine demonstrably hurting Russia very badly (and honestly the children with broomsticks and palpable fear around the Moscow parade is the clearest indication of many the dire straits Russia is in), but that also carries with it a clear risk.
As the clock ticks down on the potentially catastrophic - for Trump - midterms, and his one true friend in the world in trouble, we are in very dangerous territory. Because if there was a way for Trump to help Putin and hurt Ukraine he would find it. And the man who gave us 6th January has already shown there are no limits to the depths he will plumb to get there.
So, some words may change, and I would be astonished if he repeats even these, as they went against what he sees as his own self interest, but if he stops helping Putin it will not be through choice. We are entering the endgame for Trump’s Ukraine calumny.
There was a NY Times story on White House lawyers briefing White House staff on what to expect from a Democratic House next year. That seemed a dose of reality,
His self-interest is greatly served in his machinations to change petrodollars to petroyuan, which is happening bit by bit now. He and Lutnick and the UAE will get a monster payoff due to their crypto holdings when the changeover is a fait accompli.
The notion that Trump is in thrall to Putin only holds if you completely ignore what he's done over the decades to support Netanyahu and Israel - something the Professor routinely does for one reason or another (probably cos he still wants to get his work into the Atlantic).
Recent Hebrew language reports have detailed what led Trump down this garden parth - this is the best summary I've found - spoiler alert, it wasn't Putin pulling the strings:
100% agree. I get a lot of updates on Ukraine/Iran in my inbox, but this is the only one I read front to back and the tone definitely contributes to that. 😅
If the info IS factual, it is wonderful that Putin is hiding in a bunker. Keep it up. Dying in a bunker will be better than being hauled out of a pipe by US forces and summarily shot (a la Saddam Hussein), right? Get ready. Because if this coup-in-the-making fizzles, you can bet there will be another one shortly.
If the info IS NOT factual, well, more than one party can play the destabilizing disinformation game.
As for the Trump Crime Family, the Lutnick Crime Family and UAE, they are hard at work, using the war on Iran to change from petrodollars to petroyuan, with the payoff being to those who hold crypto. And all three of these entities own A LOT of crypto.
I continue to be concerned for Ukraine and to make my modest donations.
And what's left of my heart goes out to Gazans and Palestinians in the West Bank. Please donate to a reputable charity on their behalf if you can.
The fact that there won't be tanks, missiles, or other heavy weapons at Moscow's May 9 Victory Day parade and the cancellation of other Victory Day parades in Crimea and other russian regions means lil' putin is plenty worried about Ukraine and his own fate. He's worried about a drone assassination either by Ukraine or the russian elites. He's even threatened that if Ukraine attacks the parade, he will unleash russian missiles at the center of Kyiv. But how is this different than any other day in this war:
If Trump is coming around on Ukraine, reluctantly, I wonder if the Saudis or other Gulf states have played a role in this.
Zelenskyy is now very popular with these countries because of Ukrainian success and technology, and the deals he signed. Trump is more likely to listen to MBS than to his own "deep state" experts.
And despite all the people mysteriously falling out of windows to their deaths in Moscow, at some point Putin's luck will run out.
Might have been indirectly playing a role--the USG can see what the Ukrainians are capable of doing with their aid to the Gulf States. Interesting question.
Wouldn’t it be absolutely exquisite if Ukraine was telling Trump to go f… himself behind closed doors when it comes to sharing any of their drone tech while offering it to ALL the democracies that he has alienated in the past 16 months.
This guy along with ALL his enablers need to join Putin in a bunker somewhere in Siberia.
I know the Ukrainians do not hate all Americans, just the traitors who have betrayed us both.
I have said this before but it is truly INCREDIBLE how much damage this man and his enablers have done to the US in such a short period. I doubt I will ever see us recover from this in my lifetime. It will likely take generations if there are any future generations to be had after this.
Well stated. A more friendly relationship could have provided the Gulf countries with more drone protection BEFORE the US military started the most recent violence against Iran. There can be no doubt that many interceptions of the munitions sent to attack the Gulf countries were subsequently taken down by expensive US-provided interceptors. Namely Patriat and the like. The US has since declared that many of these missile interceptors that have been on order across many countries will be indefinitely delayed. It's hard not to think that Trump's "pause" in the Iran war is partially because the stocks of our smart munitions are getting or are very low.
Indeed he has wasted so much and gained nothing. He is a loser (as are we all) because a greedy, complacent and compliant few managed to help this criminal get re-elected. Greed will be humanities downfall…
With the Strait closed the clock is ticking on a world recession. Another four to six weeks with the Strait closed means a major reduction in chip production, farm production reductions, etc. Trump can either surrender or recession there we come.
The US 5th Fleet is based in Bahrain: did it leave Bahrain - and the Persian Gulf - before the US/Israeli attack, or is it - totally or partially - effectively trapped while passage through the strait of Hormuz is blocked by Iran?
If it is still in Bahrain, how important is it, both in terms of vulnerability and lack of availability in other parts of its responsibilities e.g. South Asia?
While I think tRUMP's praise for Ukraine was interesting, it needs to be seen in light of tRUMP's need to be associated with "fighters" and "winners." Let's not forget he invited Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic Socialist Mayor of New York City to the White House for a photo op and meeting. In the run up to the election, tRUMP referred to Mamdani as "my little communist mayor", "the 100% Communist Lunatic" and worst of all, an immigrant who was in the U.S. illegally and should be deported. tRUMP now says he likes Mamdani but he's still critical of his policies.
I don't think tRUMP knows that for five straight months, russia has lost more soldiers than it can replace, that russia lost 116 sq km (72 miles) of territory in April, the first loss since 2024, or that there's been a 40% reduction in russian oil exports from its Baltic sea ports due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Nor do I think tRUMP's comments mean there's a change in his position on Ukraine when there is zero money for Ukraine aid in the $1.5 trillion proposed 2027 Pentagon budget. But what tRUMP can do is get some media attention by complimenting Ukrainians for being "fighters", just like tRUMP and we're all talking about it. To quote Winston Churchill: "I no longer listen to what people say, I just watch what they do."
I read Ross Douhat's Opinion piece yesterday and while the bile was rising in my mouth, the title of one of your Substack articles came ringing back to me:
"tRUMP is helping putin kill Ukrainians."
Before I was able to share this in my comment in response to Douhat's propaganda, the Comments Section was closed. But we need to repeat your words as often as possible to counter the thinking tRUMP was being benevolent when when he abandoned Ukraine. Regardless of what he says now about President Zelenskyy and Ukraine, tRUMP's been a malevolent factor on behalf of his russian friends of 40 years and his special friend, lil' putin.
When two U.S. destroyers "guiding" three merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were fired upon by the Iranians, it got real for tRUMP and Kegsbreath. No suprise tRUMP paused the process because now the war became up close and personal. It's one thing to send Tomahawks and other ordinance from a ship, a fighter jet or bomber miles away from the target but it's another thing to be in a sitting duck in a 2 mile wide space like the Strait of Hormuz. The sinking of an American military vessel on tRUMP's watch would be a national tragedy and HUGE failure for the man who describes himself as a "very stable genius". So yes, tRUMP TACO'd on Tuesday. There are so many questions ahead but chief among them: which group is in charge in Iran- the moderates or the hard liners, and what will allow Iran and tRUMP to save face and end the war?
And BTW: Please keep the Midweek Updates coming. Your writing helps us make sense of the chaos of the world.
Hi Professor O'Brien. Your point about Douthat being too smart not to know better is the killer. What we're watching is the launch of an entire genre -- the "he meant to do that" foreign policy commentary -- and Thiessen will absolutely be the next media priest offering absolution for Trump's insanity.
Trump spent fifteen months treating Ukraine as a problem to be liquidated. He courted Putin, ambushed Zelensky in the Oval Office, suspended intelligence sharing at the worst possible moments.
Now that the Ukrainians have held the line despite all of this, Douthat retrofits the chaos as strategy. The bullying becomes "a geopolitical accelerant." The aid cuts become "rebalancing." Trump's open hostility toward Kyiv becomes a kind of tough-love mentorship program.
Douthat's tell is the opening concession that "Ukraine's champions would recoil from this description." When you have to begin a column by acknowledging that the people who actually follow the subject will find your argument absurd, you're audibly realigning your priors with the new battlefield reality and gaslighting your readers about the seams.
Yep--he knows how ludicrous that argument is, but he still makes it as he must defend Trump regardless. The state we are in.
We all saw what happened in the Oval Office, with Trump, Vance, and their bullying of Zelensky. We saw it, ourselves.
And now yet again, we're being told. "You need to believe whatever fraud we're telling you now, not your own lying eyes!"
The point is: you have to accept everything I say, whether you believe it or not. I alone decide what is true.
Exactly!!! The acceptance of 'my word' is the point...and the only meaningful point. So well said. Thank you!
And that's what authoritarianism is.
1984!!
Exactly what I was thinking, Dominique! For the Party, reality "is not external," that is, there is no such thing as objective truth— truth that exists outside of each of our minds. Truth is what the Party says it is. The goal of Newspeak is to limit people's vocabulary. Humans cannot think without language; the impoverishment of language necessarily leads to the impoverishment of thinking. People whose thinking has become impoverished cannot challenge the Party.
Also on a fundamental level, Trump does not want to be on the losing side. For him, the absolute worse thing to be called or to be is a “loser”
...which makes him. . . . . a LOSER.
If there was a championship for loser-dom, then Trump would win it hands down. That's the one award he richly deserves.
And we all it know it except for his cult
Important point.
And there's more - the "Epic Fury" campaign, conducted with the sure and certain knowledge that Iran would block the strait, has been a dramatic "accelerant" to the adoption of EVs, solar panels and other renewable technologies world-wide.
Next perhaps, Mr Douthat will reveal that the Iran conflict was a successful initiative by Trump to promote the uptake of renewable energy.
I would not be surprised if Trump apologists begin to argue that Trump's anti alternate energy rhetoric and even the whole Iran war have really been a genius political ploy to move the world away from fossil fuels and toward cleaner energy sources.
It’s the old “He’s playing 3-D chess” argument yet again. Pathetic!
Douthat & Thiessen are the mainstream 'intellectual' pillars of Trumpism. May we use the "three-legged stool" metaphor for this? ...that there really is no 3rd leg is why their arguments typically fall flat
I trust Khodorkovsky. Putin is in trouble.
I wonder if Trump's view on Ukraine was altered by increases in PURL purchasing power by a big donation from Canada? World trade is moving away from the US. Surely someone in the government has seen how things are moving? Trade agreements will keep the US sidelined for the foreseeable future.
I thought that thread was really interesting--surprised more people are not talking about it.
I can only speak for myself that I don't have an X account and don't really want one.
Always look forward to your insights and would welcome further mid-week posts. And this one, even if it is meant to keep us up to date about the Iran conflict has some very valuable inputs about Ukraine and Putin. Many thanks !
Yes yes YES!
I agree that Putin is in trouble.
The fires at oil installations must be terrifying. Drones hitting deep into Russia too.
Are the PURL purchases actually happening, in the sense of the bought items actually getting delivered to Ukraine?
Yes. They are in the pipeline. Should really happen. Concis talked about this a day or two ago.
I also want to know and I asked the question a long time ago but I got no satisfactory answer.
I assume countries putting more money in the pot is
A) PURL does deliver
B) putting more pressure on US to deliver
Tangential tidbits:
- US congressional aid (the tiny amount approved as part of the budget process to help increase production volumes of high priority items) is trickling out amidst congressional pressure
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5856026-pentagon-releases-ukraine-aid/amp/
- I recall hearing European countries publicly discussing an audit of their PURL contracts with the US. This was some time ago, I presume designed to apply pressure.
As far as I can see the article you referred to has nothing to do with PURL but with money allocated by the Biden admin for Ukraine but not yet spent.
It’s neither. The link relates to the first bullet and the $400M baked into the Pentagon’s budget by Congress late last year.
I read a lengthy article yesterday that Putin has set things up like a crime family so that no one of the five defined groups dare make a move. I don't know. I rejoiced when Yeltsin was able to stand up against rebellion, but we know he proved to be more a drunk then a democrat -- he's the one who gave the world Putin. Who follows Putin? More to the point, what follows Putin.
Although the time frames are drastically different. It's hard not to think Trump is stuck in his violence against Iran, just like Putin is stuck in Ukraine. It seems both face a decision of either drastically escalating or somehow walking away and trying to claim victory. Also, it's difficult to know why Trump's tone about Ukraine and Zelenskyy has changed a bit. The well-known edge the US maintains with its extensive intelligence-gathering capabilities could very well be informing the Trump folks that there has indeed been a visible and measurable change on the battlefield favoring Ukraine. The large-scale strikes into the Russian hinterlands are definitely a factor in all of this.
Putin might be even more stuck, as if he cuts and run his whole life is in danger. However the comparison is not bad.
I don t believe Putin can escalate. He has already tried every umspeakable tactic and yet now it is yet more obvious that his defeat is inevitable and gathering pace. How differently it could have turned out if he had reached out a hand of friemdship to Ukraine and the EU. The same for Trump. Neither can even rreach out a hand of friendship to their own country. Survival of the fittest turns out as always to mean survival of the friemdliest.
It's hard to see how Putin could escalate short of the nuclear option. The entire Russian economy is straining to try to maintain the aggression against Ukraine.
I don't understand the US presidential system but is there any way Vance can stage a democratic coup using 26th ammendment after the mid terms based on Trump's mental incapacity or some such and then pull out of Iran unilaterally saying Don betrayed MAGA's commitment to no more foreign wars?
The words 'Vance' and 'democratic' never really belong in the same sentence. Vance is surely a pretty leaky vessel to be putting much hope in.
Yes, it is theoretically possible. It requires a sane Cabinet with spine and trust in one another; I put the chance at 0%.
Or could it require a self interested Vance realising he's more likely to be president this way than through an election. And persuading others he is their best hope to jump from the sinking ship?
Vance might be even worse than Trump in terms of Ukraine.
He might indeed. I wasn't suggesting he'd be an improvement, though conceivably he could be more predictable. Rather I was asking if it might happen. As a Brit our politics is currently very focused on whether Keir Starmer will be ousted by Labour MPs following today's local council elections. I knew it was much harder to depose a US President but understood mental incapacity was one potential route. I wondered if anyone felt internal MAGA politics might lead to that if Trump continues to flounder.
I don’t know.
It was just a few days ago that Trump had another perfect call with Putin and then decided to pull US troops out of Germany. It doesn’t seem typical of Trump to evaluate facts and rethink his position that quickly. But who knows what Trump’s calculations are.
One of the bigger ironies is that almost no one in the administration has crawled further out publicly on the “corrupt Ukrainians are our real enemies” branch than Vance. It would be darkly funny if Trump cuts that branch off. Maybe this is part of trying to position Don Jr as the new crown prince.
And yes, Don Jr has also spewed a lot of anti Ukrainian rhetoric, but as a Trump he reserves the right to have nothing he says taken seriously. Vance doesn’t have that privilege.
Indeed--hopefully Europeans state will still keep him at an arms length
The 90-minute phone call Trump says occurred between him and Putin begs the question. What on earth could they talk about for that length of time?
The kompromat? 😅
Child sex trafficking? Ghislaine Maxwell?
Rubbish about mail-in ballots being used to cheat?
I am puzzled by any suggestion that Trump “thinks” what he says. What he says seems only ever to reflect what he believes is in his self interest. He hates Zelenskyy and loves Putin. This much is clear. And so his words must serve some other self interest. It is possible that he is trying out some formulation to cope with Ukraine demonstrably hurting Russia very badly (and honestly the children with broomsticks and palpable fear around the Moscow parade is the clearest indication of many the dire straits Russia is in), but that also carries with it a clear risk.
As the clock ticks down on the potentially catastrophic - for Trump - midterms, and his one true friend in the world in trouble, we are in very dangerous territory. Because if there was a way for Trump to help Putin and hurt Ukraine he would find it. And the man who gave us 6th January has already shown there are no limits to the depths he will plumb to get there.
So, some words may change, and I would be astonished if he repeats even these, as they went against what he sees as his own self interest, but if he stops helping Putin it will not be through choice. We are entering the endgame for Trump’s Ukraine calumny.
I have always said I think Trump knows what he is doing more than people often give him credit for.
There was a NY Times story on White House lawyers briefing White House staff on what to expect from a Democratic House next year. That seemed a dose of reality,
Phil, look into the substack of Bandy Lee. She has a lot to say on the state of mind of trump. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandy_X._Lee
His self-interest is greatly served in his machinations to change petrodollars to petroyuan, which is happening bit by bit now. He and Lutnick and the UAE will get a monster payoff due to their crypto holdings when the changeover is a fait accompli.
The notion that Trump is in thrall to Putin only holds if you completely ignore what he's done over the decades to support Netanyahu and Israel - something the Professor routinely does for one reason or another (probably cos he still wants to get his work into the Atlantic).
Recent Hebrew language reports have detailed what led Trump down this garden parth - this is the best summary I've found - spoiler alert, it wasn't Putin pulling the strings:
https://substack.com/@kitklarenberg/p-196554608
I love the tone of your writing. Somehow you bring out the humor in despair.
Merilee, I love it when people compliment my writing! Thank you.
100% agree. I get a lot of updates on Ukraine/Iran in my inbox, but this is the only one I read front to back and the tone definitely contributes to that. 😅
“It’s like an orange Groundhog Day”!
The European intelligence leak is the best!
If the info IS factual, it is wonderful that Putin is hiding in a bunker. Keep it up. Dying in a bunker will be better than being hauled out of a pipe by US forces and summarily shot (a la Saddam Hussein), right? Get ready. Because if this coup-in-the-making fizzles, you can bet there will be another one shortly.
If the info IS NOT factual, well, more than one party can play the destabilizing disinformation game.
As for the Trump Crime Family, the Lutnick Crime Family and UAE, they are hard at work, using the war on Iran to change from petrodollars to petroyuan, with the payoff being to those who hold crypto. And all three of these entities own A LOT of crypto.
I continue to be concerned for Ukraine and to make my modest donations.
And what's left of my heart goes out to Gazans and Palestinians in the West Bank. Please donate to a reputable charity on their behalf if you can.
Thought that leak was fascinating too--though it is one leak so we need to be careful. Overall, the evidence seems strong that Putin is very worried.
The fact that there won't be tanks, missiles, or other heavy weapons at Moscow's May 9 Victory Day parade and the cancellation of other Victory Day parades in Crimea and other russian regions means lil' putin is plenty worried about Ukraine and his own fate. He's worried about a drone assassination either by Ukraine or the russian elites. He's even threatened that if Ukraine attacks the parade, he will unleash russian missiles at the center of Kyiv. But how is this different than any other day in this war:
https://united24media.com/world/russia-declares-unilateral-may-holiday-truce-warns-of-kyiv-strikes-if-attacked-18468
Slava Ukraini!
If Trump is coming around on Ukraine, reluctantly, I wonder if the Saudis or other Gulf states have played a role in this.
Zelenskyy is now very popular with these countries because of Ukrainian success and technology, and the deals he signed. Trump is more likely to listen to MBS than to his own "deep state" experts.
And despite all the people mysteriously falling out of windows to their deaths in Moscow, at some point Putin's luck will run out.
Might have been indirectly playing a role--the USG can see what the Ukrainians are capable of doing with their aid to the Gulf States. Interesting question.
All Trump has left is words, you summarized it best.
The more analyses the better!
Will do Rodney---unless the poll changes direction quite dramatically.
Chicken, chicken, chicken!
Loser, loser, loser!
Liar, liar, liar!
Wouldn’t it be absolutely exquisite if Ukraine was telling Trump to go f… himself behind closed doors when it comes to sharing any of their drone tech while offering it to ALL the democracies that he has alienated in the past 16 months.
This guy along with ALL his enablers need to join Putin in a bunker somewhere in Siberia.
I wonder what they are saying behind close doors--my guess is that they will want tangible aid from the US before changing their tune
I know the Ukrainians do not hate all Americans, just the traitors who have betrayed us both.
I have said this before but it is truly INCREDIBLE how much damage this man and his enablers have done to the US in such a short period. I doubt I will ever see us recover from this in my lifetime. It will likely take generations if there are any future generations to be had after this.
Well stated. A more friendly relationship could have provided the Gulf countries with more drone protection BEFORE the US military started the most recent violence against Iran. There can be no doubt that many interceptions of the munitions sent to attack the Gulf countries were subsequently taken down by expensive US-provided interceptors. Namely Patriat and the like. The US has since declared that many of these missile interceptors that have been on order across many countries will be indefinitely delayed. It's hard not to think that Trump's "pause" in the Iran war is partially because the stocks of our smart munitions are getting or are very low.
Indeed he has wasted so much and gained nothing. He is a loser (as are we all) because a greedy, complacent and compliant few managed to help this criminal get re-elected. Greed will be humanities downfall…
With the Strait closed the clock is ticking on a world recession. Another four to six weeks with the Strait closed means a major reduction in chip production, farm production reductions, etc. Trump can either surrender or recession there we come.
Thats the real time pressure on Trump.
Get thee a glass eye and like a scurvy politician pretend to see things thou doest not - king Lear from Shakespeare!
Lots of glass eyes out there these days
Aye. Btw I just finished your book War re ww2. Loved it thank you. Has anyone in the Pentagon read it?
Probably but they were all fired over the last 16 months, in imagine. Of those left, highly doubtful.
Thank ‘ee!
The US 5th Fleet is based in Bahrain: did it leave Bahrain - and the Persian Gulf - before the US/Israeli attack, or is it - totally or partially - effectively trapped while passage through the strait of Hormuz is blocked by Iran?
If it is still in Bahrain, how important is it, both in terms of vulnerability and lack of availability in other parts of its responsibilities e.g. South Asia?
Its out of the Gulf as far as I know...
While I think tRUMP's praise for Ukraine was interesting, it needs to be seen in light of tRUMP's need to be associated with "fighters" and "winners." Let's not forget he invited Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic Socialist Mayor of New York City to the White House for a photo op and meeting. In the run up to the election, tRUMP referred to Mamdani as "my little communist mayor", "the 100% Communist Lunatic" and worst of all, an immigrant who was in the U.S. illegally and should be deported. tRUMP now says he likes Mamdani but he's still critical of his policies.
I don't think tRUMP knows that for five straight months, russia has lost more soldiers than it can replace, that russia lost 116 sq km (72 miles) of territory in April, the first loss since 2024, or that there's been a 40% reduction in russian oil exports from its Baltic sea ports due to Ukrainian drone attacks. Nor do I think tRUMP's comments mean there's a change in his position on Ukraine when there is zero money for Ukraine aid in the $1.5 trillion proposed 2027 Pentagon budget. But what tRUMP can do is get some media attention by complimenting Ukrainians for being "fighters", just like tRUMP and we're all talking about it. To quote Winston Churchill: "I no longer listen to what people say, I just watch what they do."
Slava Ukraini!
I read Ross Douhat's Opinion piece yesterday and while the bile was rising in my mouth, the title of one of your Substack articles came ringing back to me:
"tRUMP is helping putin kill Ukrainians."
Before I was able to share this in my comment in response to Douhat's propaganda, the Comments Section was closed. But we need to repeat your words as often as possible to counter the thinking tRUMP was being benevolent when when he abandoned Ukraine. Regardless of what he says now about President Zelenskyy and Ukraine, tRUMP's been a malevolent factor on behalf of his russian friends of 40 years and his special friend, lil' putin.
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/trump-is-helping-putin-kill-ukrainians?r=1lbnim&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/29/trump-russia-asset-claims-former-kgb-spy-new-book
Slava Ukraini!
When two U.S. destroyers "guiding" three merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were fired upon by the Iranians, it got real for tRUMP and Kegsbreath. No suprise tRUMP paused the process because now the war became up close and personal. It's one thing to send Tomahawks and other ordinance from a ship, a fighter jet or bomber miles away from the target but it's another thing to be in a sitting duck in a 2 mile wide space like the Strait of Hormuz. The sinking of an American military vessel on tRUMP's watch would be a national tragedy and HUGE failure for the man who describes himself as a "very stable genius". So yes, tRUMP TACO'd on Tuesday. There are so many questions ahead but chief among them: which group is in charge in Iran- the moderates or the hard liners, and what will allow Iran and tRUMP to save face and end the war?
And BTW: Please keep the Midweek Updates coming. Your writing helps us make sense of the chaos of the world.
Slava Ukraini!
‘Kegsbreath’ - nice!