Germany took the offensive initiative of occupying Norway the 9th of April 1940. They sent the battle cruiser Blücher to spearhead the landing forces in Oslo. Norway was really not prepared for an invasion, except at Oscarsfort in Oslofjorden, manning three 28 cm cannons and a torpedo battery.
The Sound of Drøbak (strait really) is only 500 meters across, so when Blücher came steaming at 4 AM, a corageous Norwegian colonel took the defensive initiative to fire at the warship. Blücher sank at around 6 AM.
Becides the obvious lessons of navigating hostile straits, are there others? Well, even after pumping around 1,000 metric tons of heavy bunker oil from the wreck, it still seeps oil into the fjord 86 years later. A grim reminder of the long-lasting environmental consequences of modern war.
As Magyar (birdman) himself points out, the Russians pile Ukraine with plastics, toxins, heavy metals, potentially contaminating Ukranian soil for centuries to come.
Interestingly, the torpedo battery was operated by a pensioner (the officer normally manning it was out sick, so they asked an old man living nearby to babysit the torpedoes - in his youth he actually served there, and the torpedoes and the machinery had not changed since then, so he knew which button to push - and at that distance it was really hard to miss a target of THAT size). The Blücher carried some Gestapo men tasked with arresting the king and seizing the gold reserves. Since they drowned, the king managed to escape, along with all his gold.
I always remember this story on this tour: https://www.k-d.com/en/product/ruedesheim-loreley-tour/ Why? Because the play a recording in several languages about the sights around, and in one place they mention that Feldmarschal Blücher (the namesake of the cruiser) crossed the Rein there while chasing Napoleon. I'll ride the very boat in the photo again in July (will stay the first two nights of the tip in Rüdesheim). I'm waiting for the AmEx billing cycle to close tomorrow to buy tickets on that page.
That incident caused the first Norwegian civilian casualty of WWII. A housewife was standing in her kitchen some 7 kilometres away, when a stray projectile from Blücher killed her.
After last June's bombing, the US admin used the term "obliterated" in reference to Iran's nuclear program... "completely and totally obliterated" per the president. Only 8 months later, he described an "imminent threat" of Iran achieving a nuclear weapon. Perhaps June 2025 was precisely decimation rather than obliteration
Back when i was in the Forces, a "destroyed" unit meant that approximately 30% of a given unit was incapacitated. So Iran keeping 75% of his fighting force, even if it is "destroyed", sounds about right.
i don't think the Iranians ever lacked for bloody mindedness before the war and after its elite was heavily bombed and top leaders killed I expect they are brimming over with it. They know the war is hurting Trump and the US and are prepared to endure lots of hardship if they know it makes things harder for their enemy. That's what bloody minded people do.
Trump cannot bring himself to agree to any cease fire that makes him look a loser and that's the only sort of deal likely to be offered for him. I anticipate very high fuel prices for at least the rest of 2026 and probably well into 2027. Beyond that is definitely possible but I don't predict that high.
China may be keen to have the Persian Gulf open again (it used to import a lot from there) but if it decides it's more advantagous to leave the US in a damaging quagmire then things might drag out for a very long time...I reckon sales of EVs are going to go up quite a bit from this. Ironic really given how much Trump hates low carbon technology.
I agree with your fatalistic view. Trump knows he will look like Jimmy Carter - if not worse - if he agrees to a deal that leaves the current regime in firm control. He will burn the world down before implicitly admitting failure.
It is quite something reading right wing analysts, many of them highly intelligent. They have clever theories on how Trump will soon crush the Iranian regime and oil/gas prices will rebound just in time for midterms. Everything in proceeding according to plan.
It's astonishing that Trump, in going into Iran, seems to have made the same category error that Putin made going into Ukraine
Of course, there are differences in the detail of the various parties
But, essentially both Putin and then Trump thought they had overwhelming military force, which would be enough to overthrow a regime in days, without really understanding what it takes to complete such a goal militarily
Maybe because none of them including Netanyahu understood that military coefficients in war have deeply changed and do not reflect only in tons of metal or billions of procurement anymore
So far the U.S. has spent $29 billion in the war against Iran, lost 13 U.S. Service members and over 140 are wounded. Yet Iran has 75% of its missile launchers and 30 of 33 missile launchers along the Strait of Hormuz. As a U.S. taxpayer, I'd like to know what Iranian assets have been destroyed and what have we accomplished for the extraordinary expenditure of blood and treasure?
Another observation: Ukraine and Iran are holding off nations with a much larger military with more powerful weapons and greater financial resources. Is the lesson that in the age of drone warfare, a defensive war vs offensive war is more successful in the long run?
So far, russia seems to be the biggest beneficiary of tRUMP's war against Iran since the price of oil has skyrocketed and tRUMP has lifted russian oil sanctions. russia recently completed an expansion of its Alabuga drone manufacturing facility, the largest drone plant in the world, and more expansion continues. russia is now exporting its new and improved version of Iran's Shahed drone, the Geran, back to Iran for use in the war. russia's investment in Iranian drone technology is paying big dividends.
Agreed, and I didn't mention the depletion of the U.S. stockpile of Patriot Missiles, Tomahawks, THAAD and Precision Strike Missiles. The U.S. has used up nearly half of these weapons so I doubt if the U.S. will be selling any future Patriot Missiles to Ukraine through the PURL program. Another way lil' putin appears to be the biggest beneficiary of the war at Ukraine's expense.
It is true that Russia has gained a windfall from the Iran crisis, but Russia’s problems go far deeper. It is losing the technology war with Ukraine, it has a manpower crisis, and has suffered a setback in Mali/Sahel.
In what way is a country that produces Oresniks and Kinzhals possibly losing a technology war with a country making drones in sheds (albiet pretty good ones).
In the way that those missiles are clearly not enough in the face or a brilliant, dynamic and creative use of drones is proving to be more effective militarily. Russia’s keeps thinking killing civilians is a better strategy than Ukraine’s attention to destroy Moscow’s economy and weapons manufacturing
Well, Russia WOULD be making even more windfall oil profits --- except that Ukraine is dedicatedly BOMBING the hell out of Russian refineries and other oil installations. The price to sell Russian oil may be high, but if it can't refine or deliver it, then the windfall is all on paper...
russia's oil production has declined for the 4th straight year, and is now at its lowest level in 17 years due to Ukraine's "kinetic sanctions", the best kind of sanctions, in my opinion. However, russia's oil revenue increased from $9.75 billion in February to $19 billion in March due to the skyrocketing increase in global oil prices and tRUMP's lifting of russian oil sanctions. More oil revenue means more revenue to wage war against Ukraine.
Good data! Thank you. Yet you will no doubt agree that the windfall would have been even bigger if Ukraine were NOT repeat bombing Russian oil facilities, yes?
This all feels like we've gone through the looking glass. Hesgeth might say China has "a lot of leverage" because it buys oil from Iran, but Iran has even greater leverage over China because it SELLS oil to China.
I heard he is traveling with CEO's though do not know which one's. Jr. and his other son? trump is certainly hoping he can make deals.... That puts investing in US strategic industries at the top of trumps list, particularly if he can pocket transaction fees as a fascilitator, I.E. President of the United States, nothing like emolument(s) heading his way
When tRUMP descended Air Force One in China this evening (8:18 PM) immediately behind him was Lara and Eric tRUMP followed by Elon Musk and Jensen Huang, who grew up in Taiwan. Sec of State Rubio and Kegsbreath are also on the trip but obviously had to wait until the important people in first class deplaned.
Thank you Mary Ann, musk has the key to the back door of the vault he created and stored all of our information in. Wonder what they will be selling ‘US’ for?
Slava Ukraine. Ready to transport there. Beam me dup Scotty
Big News: Testifying before a Senate Subcommittee yesterday, Hegseth said he approved sending U.S. military personnel to Ukraine to "ensure that we are learning every possible lesson from that conflict and incorporating it in real time into how we defend and we go on defense in an era where drone dominance is required.” There is reporting that the U.S. and Ukraine have prepared a draft memorandum to permit Ukraine to export its combat-tested military technologies to American defense manufacturers. I hope Ukraine has strong safe guards to protect its Intellectual Property.
Looks like President Zelenskyy has the "The King of Drones" card, the best card in the deck.
President Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine could produce twice as many drones as it currently produces if it had more investment funds. If Ukraine is smart about its intellectual property rights, it may be a good deal. In other joint cooperation agreements with Denmark, the UK, Germany, Norway and other nations, 50 to 100% of the drones go back to Ukraine even if manufactured in another nation. The deal with the U.S. is just a draft agreement so far and tRUMP could always nix it at the last minute because he wants the drone firm partially owned by Eric and Don, Jr, Powerus, to get the contracts vs Ukraine. That would not surprise me.
Thank you Mary Ann, clearly the key is for Ukraine to maintain its intellectual property rights. I just inquired on The Concis regarding the CEO’s traveling with trump to China.and received a response. The Kobeissi Letter on X shared it. One cannot trust trump or this regime regarding sharing information. We already know from tr101 that he lives sharing ‘what he knows!(ha)’ for $$
1. Elon Musk, Tesla and SpaceX CEO 2. Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO 3. Tim Cook, Apple CEO 4. Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO 5. Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone CEO 6. Kelly Ortberg, Boeing CEO 7. Brian Sikes, Cargill CEO 8. Jane Fraser, Citigroup CEO 9. Larry Culp, General Electric CEO 10. David Solomon, Goldman Sachs CEO 11. Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron CEO 12. Cristiano Amon, Qualcomm CEO
Ukraine's view is that the tech evolves very very fast. They will always be selling the US tech which is several generations back from Ukraine's most recent.
Netanyahu knows from immediate experience that all he has to do is wait because Trump makes decisions based on what the last person he spoke to tells him. One well-timed phone call and Bibi gets his way.
Isn't this a famous weakness of vacillating leaders throughout history to Guy of Lusignan and the fall of the Kingdom of Jerusalem and beyond? Hesgeth sees himself as a crusader, I have no doubt the Iranian leadership want to emulate Saladin.
Look how Bibi behaved on 60 Minutes last weekend. He - a foreign leader - TOLD the American people they should send their sons and daughters to fight his war.
The leaves Israel still in partnership with the US to dominate this portion of Wests Asia - just as they were when Biden was in the White House - Sullivan & Blinken were just as likely to have followed them into this catasrophe as the Trumps have. Harris too made great play of Iran being the major threat to the US in her campaign - this war was going to happen one way or another.
Israel has been agitating for years for action to be taken against Iran. Trump was too stupid to listen to Bibi this time around. The answer to the Iran problem lies in Tel Aviv, not Teheran.
Trump's going to China is a disaster. He will sell out Taiwan, secretly at first, then bragging about it later. Xi will play Trump like an Erhu (a traditional 2-string instrument, similar to a violin). Anyone else would require a Guqin ( a 7-string zither-like instrument), but Trump is a simpleton, and subtlety is miles beyond him, evidenced by King Charles' visit. By the way, can we trade King Charles for Trump for a little while? The US can use a leader who believes in democracy (even as a king), and the British right-wing could use a dose of Trumpism, in the flesh. A Farage/Trump "bro fest" should clear their minds.
Trump can't sell out Taiwan, *because he doesn't own it*. Trump tried to sell out Ukraine and you saw how that went. Didn't help Putin much in the long run, did it?
Taiwan is entirely aware that the US is not reliable. Japan is backing Taiwan. Taiwan is pursuing close ties to Ukraine. If China attacks Taiwan, I would bet on Taiwan. The Chinese people have no stomach for foreign adventurism, and an invasion of Taiwan would be very, very difficult.
Just like Trump sold out Ukraine to Russia. It's so stupid all of this. US is shooting itself in the foot constantly. It's maddening and although at times I'm highly critical of the USA, I really do hope that not all will be lost come the midterms. It's more or less the same as the UK, great countries, terrible leadership.
You hear two things. They want it over, but they also want Iran damaged. I think the Saudis are probably more disillusioned by this war than almost anyone.
The only way out of Trump’s dilemma, therefore America’s dilemma, is negotiation. That means using the Iranian specialists in the State Department, the nuclear negotiation specialists and scientists, and seriously negotiate. The Iranians have told us what their price is. I am certain that a deal can be made around the two sticking points…uranium enrichment and Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians have said they will negotiate on enrichment subject to controls. I am certain there is much they can be given to open the Strait. Will Trump send in a serious negotiating team? Doubtful.
Harold - are we sure such experts weren't all DOGEd, otherwise purged, or resigned? ...part of Trump's unilateral disarmament of expertise long before the fighting even began
No, we are not sure, but probably some remain, and others can be enlisted. The real problem is Trump’s paranoia, but I am hoping the tight spot he is in will induce him to try real negotiators, not real estate sales guys.
The following is attributed to the great English historian AJP Taylor: "The object of being a Great Power is to be able to fight a Great War. The only way of remaining a Great Power is not to fight one."
I am convinced that Trump has irrevocably damaged the US and that we will never recover. This is truly tragic for the entire world as the days where the US could represent a glimmer of hope and principled leadership are sadly over!
We are living in a post truth, post democratic, post rule of law, world where China is poised to dominate.
Strap in everyone this is going to be a BUMPY ride!
Next step is Taiwan is absorbed and US access to cutting edge chips is under Chinese control.
Thank you MAGATS! Your greedy, self righteous, bigoted ignorance has plunged the world into a very dark chapter from which frankly I doubt we will recover…
Actually, Lou, the numerous MIDDLE democratic powers in Europe, Canada, Australia, NZ and South Korea STILL 'represent a glimmer of hope and principled leadership' in the world.
No offence, but you are certainly assuming that all the light in the world shone out of the USA.
Not at all so. The USA was a hegemon, throwing its weight around.
We, the MIDDLE powers of the world, are committed to democracy and have in only the last 12 months implemented an amazing set of new treaties on trade and military matters AMONGST OURSELVES.
Yes I am well aware that Europe seems to be awakening from its slumber and that this represents at least a glowing ember.
But they have yet to really join Ukraine in defeating the existential threat to the East. They haven’t even really mobilized their defense industry and they are still sucking at the tit of US tech which has and will be weaponized against them in the ongoing information war between hostile states and anti democratic billionaires.
That ember can be snuffed out in a heartbeat and I don’t believe people truly understand that.
Don’t count America out yet. The electorate was looking for change in 2016 and the Democrats chose to run Clinton, part of the establishment. Then the Dems screwed up again by sticking to Biden til the last minute. Let’see what the primaries can produce in 2028.
I agree with your observations and I TRULY hope you are right, but so far I have not seen any indication that this is something that not only will we have an opportunity to actually do (given the obvious willingness to tamper with elections) but then if it did happen we would need some super strong leadership and a willingness to completely revamp a very broken political system and frankly I think that is an ask too big for even the most wildly optimistic among us. It would absolutely be a miracle!
Even so, he is on his way right now to sell the US national interests and Taiwan off to China in order save his ego and his sorry ass once again... I hope I am wrong but fear I am not.
So what I'm most afraid of is that Xi is so stupid and incompetent that he thinks he can take over Taiwan.
The US has not been the obstacle to taking over Taiwan since 1989. The obstacle is... Taiwan. China invading Taiwan is just as much a mistake as Russia invading Ukraine, *and Ukraine would be fully backing Taiwan*, along with Japan backing Taiwan. In that war, China could prove to have an army even less effective than the US or Russia.
It is the one scenario which could destroy the power of Beijing within five years. All Xi has to do to avoid it is... just not attack Taiwan.
When Hegseth said "Epic Fury decimated Iran's military”, out of sheer ignorance he actually told something truth-adjacent: having destroyed merely 10% of Iran’s military strength sounds about right.
This little adventure of Trumps has, very, very strong Suez vibes. Not exactly the same, but 1956 marked the definitive end of European Great Power pretensions, and this is now doing the same.
Germany took the offensive initiative of occupying Norway the 9th of April 1940. They sent the battle cruiser Blücher to spearhead the landing forces in Oslo. Norway was really not prepared for an invasion, except at Oscarsfort in Oslofjorden, manning three 28 cm cannons and a torpedo battery.
The Sound of Drøbak (strait really) is only 500 meters across, so when Blücher came steaming at 4 AM, a corageous Norwegian colonel took the defensive initiative to fire at the warship. Blücher sank at around 6 AM.
Becides the obvious lessons of navigating hostile straits, are there others? Well, even after pumping around 1,000 metric tons of heavy bunker oil from the wreck, it still seeps oil into the fjord 86 years later. A grim reminder of the long-lasting environmental consequences of modern war.
As Magyar (birdman) himself points out, the Russians pile Ukraine with plastics, toxins, heavy metals, potentially contaminating Ukranian soil for centuries to come.
Imagine the environmental catastrophe we could see in the SoH, let alone the whole Gulf. Frightening
terrifying indeed
Interestingly, the torpedo battery was operated by a pensioner (the officer normally manning it was out sick, so they asked an old man living nearby to babysit the torpedoes - in his youth he actually served there, and the torpedoes and the machinery had not changed since then, so he knew which button to push - and at that distance it was really hard to miss a target of THAT size). The Blücher carried some Gestapo men tasked with arresting the king and seizing the gold reserves. Since they drowned, the king managed to escape, along with all his gold.
Indeed, Colonel Eriksen and his crew bought the King and government 30 hours of time to pack up the gold reserves, and escape to London.
I always remember this story on this tour: https://www.k-d.com/en/product/ruedesheim-loreley-tour/ Why? Because the play a recording in several languages about the sights around, and in one place they mention that Feldmarschal Blücher (the namesake of the cruiser) crossed the Rein there while chasing Napoleon. I'll ride the very boat in the photo again in July (will stay the first two nights of the tip in Rüdesheim). I'm waiting for the AmEx billing cycle to close tomorrow to buy tickets on that page.
That incident caused the first Norwegian civilian casualty of WWII. A housewife was standing in her kitchen some 7 kilometres away, when a stray projectile from Blücher killed her.
That’s why I love this newsletter. I learn a ton of history from the commenters.
Cheers Don!
When Hegseth said "Epic Fury decimated Iran's military" did he mean it in the original Roman sense of "1 in 10" has been destroyed?
Dont know whether to laugh or cry
Clearly he doesn't know the correct meaning of the word "decimated".
Perhaps someone should ask whether America is Great Again yet. (At every press conference)
Imbeciles tend not to know much really
After last June's bombing, the US admin used the term "obliterated" in reference to Iran's nuclear program... "completely and totally obliterated" per the president. Only 8 months later, he described an "imminent threat" of Iran achieving a nuclear weapon. Perhaps June 2025 was precisely decimation rather than obliteration
I’m pretty confident Hegseth has no idea what the term decimated truly means. They don’t teach this in his gym
To be fair, losing even "only" 10% of the force in combat is serious.
Back when i was in the Forces, a "destroyed" unit meant that approximately 30% of a given unit was incapacitated. So Iran keeping 75% of his fighting force, even if it is "destroyed", sounds about right.
Yes, 30% as a ballpark limit is a good average figure.
i don't think the Iranians ever lacked for bloody mindedness before the war and after its elite was heavily bombed and top leaders killed I expect they are brimming over with it. They know the war is hurting Trump and the US and are prepared to endure lots of hardship if they know it makes things harder for their enemy. That's what bloody minded people do.
Trump cannot bring himself to agree to any cease fire that makes him look a loser and that's the only sort of deal likely to be offered for him. I anticipate very high fuel prices for at least the rest of 2026 and probably well into 2027. Beyond that is definitely possible but I don't predict that high.
China may be keen to have the Persian Gulf open again (it used to import a lot from there) but if it decides it's more advantagous to leave the US in a damaging quagmire then things might drag out for a very long time...I reckon sales of EVs are going to go up quite a bit from this. Ironic really given how much Trump hates low carbon technology.
What you say reinforces just why China is in such a powerful position
I agree with your fatalistic view. Trump knows he will look like Jimmy Carter - if not worse - if he agrees to a deal that leaves the current regime in firm control. He will burn the world down before implicitly admitting failure.
It is quite something reading right wing analysts, many of them highly intelligent. They have clever theories on how Trump will soon crush the Iranian regime and oil/gas prices will rebound just in time for midterms. Everything in proceeding according to plan.
ha ha ha ha
Yeah. The Iranian plan.
It's astonishing that Trump, in going into Iran, seems to have made the same category error that Putin made going into Ukraine
Of course, there are differences in the detail of the various parties
But, essentially both Putin and then Trump thought they had overwhelming military force, which would be enough to overthrow a regime in days, without really understanding what it takes to complete such a goal militarily
Indeed
I thought from the start that trump thought he was going to show Putin what he could do in three days. A plan that has backfired on the world.
Even Putin knew that if you want change regime you have to put boots on the ground in the capital..
… which turned out not to be so easy
Maybe because none of them including Netanyahu understood that military coefficients in war have deeply changed and do not reflect only in tons of metal or billions of procurement anymore
So far the U.S. has spent $29 billion in the war against Iran, lost 13 U.S. Service members and over 140 are wounded. Yet Iran has 75% of its missile launchers and 30 of 33 missile launchers along the Strait of Hormuz. As a U.S. taxpayer, I'd like to know what Iranian assets have been destroyed and what have we accomplished for the extraordinary expenditure of blood and treasure?
Another observation: Ukraine and Iran are holding off nations with a much larger military with more powerful weapons and greater financial resources. Is the lesson that in the age of drone warfare, a defensive war vs offensive war is more successful in the long run?
So far, russia seems to be the biggest beneficiary of tRUMP's war against Iran since the price of oil has skyrocketed and tRUMP has lifted russian oil sanctions. russia recently completed an expansion of its Alabuga drone manufacturing facility, the largest drone plant in the world, and more expansion continues. russia is now exporting its new and improved version of Iran's Shahed drone, the Geran, back to Iran for use in the war. russia's investment in Iranian drone technology is paying big dividends.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/75806
Slava Ukraini!
And that $29 billion figure is probably deceptively low. The real bill (repairs on damaged bases) will be much much higher.
Agreed, and I didn't mention the depletion of the U.S. stockpile of Patriot Missiles, Tomahawks, THAAD and Precision Strike Missiles. The U.S. has used up nearly half of these weapons so I doubt if the U.S. will be selling any future Patriot Missiles to Ukraine through the PURL program. Another way lil' putin appears to be the biggest beneficiary of the war at Ukraine's expense.
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5842118-patriot-thaad-prsm-expenditure-iran/
Slava Ukraini!
Costs will be massive in the end, and all to make the US weaker
It is true that Russia has gained a windfall from the Iran crisis, but Russia’s problems go far deeper. It is losing the technology war with Ukraine, it has a manpower crisis, and has suffered a setback in Mali/Sahel.
In what way is a country that produces Oresniks and Kinzhals possibly losing a technology war with a country making drones in sheds (albiet pretty good ones).
In the way that those missiles are clearly not enough in the face or a brilliant, dynamic and creative use of drones is proving to be more effective militarily. Russia’s keeps thinking killing civilians is a better strategy than Ukraine’s attention to destroy Moscow’s economy and weapons manufacturing
Hardly in sheds. Read more.
Re: offensive v defensive
Motivation must be a factor
When someone attacks your country, your cities, your children, your old folks, anyone is motivated to defend for their very lives
What motivates those soldiers, sailors airmen, attacking, especially when the orders come from the like of Putin, Trump, Hegseth?
There's nothing like the sense of self preservation
Even the Russian troops in the meat grinder, caught between their officers and the Ukrainian drones aren't going to be motivated to achieve objectives
Well, Russia WOULD be making even more windfall oil profits --- except that Ukraine is dedicatedly BOMBING the hell out of Russian refineries and other oil installations. The price to sell Russian oil may be high, but if it can't refine or deliver it, then the windfall is all on paper...
russia's oil production has declined for the 4th straight year, and is now at its lowest level in 17 years due to Ukraine's "kinetic sanctions", the best kind of sanctions, in my opinion. However, russia's oil revenue increased from $9.75 billion in February to $19 billion in March due to the skyrocketing increase in global oil prices and tRUMP's lifting of russian oil sanctions. More oil revenue means more revenue to wage war against Ukraine.
https://united24media.com/world/russian-oil-production-projected-to-reach-lowest-level-in-17-years-18743
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/05/04/russia-record-oil-revenue-march-2026-federal-budget-shortfall/
Slava Ukraini!
Good data! Thank you. Yet you will no doubt agree that the windfall would have been even bigger if Ukraine were NOT repeat bombing Russian oil facilities, yes?
That was my humble little point.
Agreed.
Slava Ukraini!
This all feels like we've gone through the looking glass. Hesgeth might say China has "a lot of leverage" because it buys oil from Iran, but Iran has even greater leverage over China because it SELLS oil to China.
It is all so very dumb.
could not be dumber
And simplistic
What will China request from trump in order to buy a little less Iranian oil?
A great deal one assumes
No more weapons for Taiwan?
That and the ability to basically invest in US strategic industries.
I heard he is traveling with CEO's though do not know which one's. Jr. and his other son? trump is certainly hoping he can make deals.... That puts investing in US strategic industries at the top of trumps list, particularly if he can pocket transaction fees as a fascilitator, I.E. President of the United States, nothing like emolument(s) heading his way
When tRUMP descended Air Force One in China this evening (8:18 PM) immediately behind him was Lara and Eric tRUMP followed by Elon Musk and Jensen Huang, who grew up in Taiwan. Sec of State Rubio and Kegsbreath are also on the trip but obviously had to wait until the important people in first class deplaned.
Slava Ukraini!
Thank you Mary Ann, musk has the key to the back door of the vault he created and stored all of our information in. Wonder what they will be selling ‘US’ for?
Slava Ukraine. Ready to transport there. Beam me dup Scotty
Best regards
Per Kobeissi Letter, reporting from a Trump social post:
1. Elon Musk, Tesla and SpaceX CEO
2. Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO
3. Tim Cook, Apple CEO
4. Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO
5. Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone CEO
6. Kelly Ortberg, Boeing CEO
7. Brian Sikes, Cargill CEO
8. Jane Fraser, Citigroup CEO
9. Larry Culp, General Electric CEO
10. David Solomon, Goldman Sachs CEO
11. Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron CEO
12. Cristiano Amon, Qualcomm CEO
Nothing Good happens with this list. Thank you J AZ!
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2054411496344420520
And no Karp from Palantir.
Musk-0X, the Apple guy, and a person whose surname is possibly Huang if I recall correctly.
Notice that Karp from Palantir is not on board. Karp was in meetings yesterday about new weapons deals with Ukraine. UGH
Get rid of the tariffs. Top Chinese priority is maintaining their export power.
Big News: Testifying before a Senate Subcommittee yesterday, Hegseth said he approved sending U.S. military personnel to Ukraine to "ensure that we are learning every possible lesson from that conflict and incorporating it in real time into how we defend and we go on defense in an era where drone dominance is required.” There is reporting that the U.S. and Ukraine have prepared a draft memorandum to permit Ukraine to export its combat-tested military technologies to American defense manufacturers. I hope Ukraine has strong safe guards to protect its Intellectual Property.
Looks like President Zelenskyy has the "The King of Drones" card, the best card in the deck.
https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/pentagon-sends-personnel-to-ukraine-to-study-drone-warfare-hegseth-says-18752
Slava Ukraini!
Ukraine should be very careful about what it gives to a US that stabs it in the back every chance it gets.
My thoughts exactly.
Slava Ukraini!
My thoughts exactly.
Ukraine should also be more than careful around a Palantir snake like Karp.
I don't understand how Ukraine could trust the US right now enough to enter into an agreement with (us).
President Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine could produce twice as many drones as it currently produces if it had more investment funds. If Ukraine is smart about its intellectual property rights, it may be a good deal. In other joint cooperation agreements with Denmark, the UK, Germany, Norway and other nations, 50 to 100% of the drones go back to Ukraine even if manufactured in another nation. The deal with the U.S. is just a draft agreement so far and tRUMP could always nix it at the last minute because he wants the drone firm partially owned by Eric and Don, Jr, Powerus, to get the contracts vs Ukraine. That would not surprise me.
https://apnews.com/article/drones-eric-donald-trump-powerus-iran-defense-089bff3892f921a10ef4ec785308e716
Slava Ukraini!
Ukraine has also made deals with Saudia Arabia and other West Asian states. Would you make a deal with SA? ? ? Much caution needed.
Ukraine has a 'drone rush' - like a gold rush - on its hands. Beware the fraudsters and double-dealers!! And lawyer up.
Thank you Mary Ann, clearly the key is for Ukraine to maintain its intellectual property rights. I just inquired on The Concis regarding the CEO’s traveling with trump to China.and received a response. The Kobeissi Letter on X shared it. One cannot trust trump or this regime regarding sharing information. We already know from tr101 that he lives sharing ‘what he knows!(ha)’ for $$
1. Elon Musk, Tesla and SpaceX CEO 2. Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO 3. Tim Cook, Apple CEO 4. Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO 5. Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone CEO 6. Kelly Ortberg, Boeing CEO 7. Brian Sikes, Cargill CEO 8. Jane Fraser, Citigroup CEO 9. Larry Culp, General Electric CEO 10. David Solomon, Goldman Sachs CEO 11. Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron CEO 12. Cristiano Amon, Qualcomm CEO
Ukraine's view is that the tech evolves very very fast. They will always be selling the US tech which is several generations back from Ukraine's most recent.
This makes sense.. thank you..
Where does Israel figure in all of this ? Trump must be frustrated that Israel dragged the USA into this catastrophe ?
The reporting is that Trump is pretty angry with Netanyahu--but I do not know more than that
Netanyahu knows from immediate experience that all he has to do is wait because Trump makes decisions based on what the last person he spoke to tells him. One well-timed phone call and Bibi gets his way.
that has happened in the past
Isn't this a famous weakness of vacillating leaders throughout history to Guy of Lusignan and the fall of the Kingdom of Jerusalem and beyond? Hesgeth sees himself as a crusader, I have no doubt the Iranian leadership want to emulate Saladin.
Saladin remains a hero.
Look how Bibi behaved on 60 Minutes last weekend. He - a foreign leader - TOLD the American people they should send their sons and daughters to fight his war.
The leaves Israel still in partnership with the US to dominate this portion of Wests Asia - just as they were when Biden was in the White House - Sullivan & Blinken were just as likely to have followed them into this catasrophe as the Trumps have. Harris too made great play of Iran being the major threat to the US in her campaign - this war was going to happen one way or another.
Israel has been agitating for years for action to be taken against Iran. Trump was too stupid to listen to Bibi this time around. The answer to the Iran problem lies in Tel Aviv, not Teheran.
40 years +
Trump's going to China is a disaster. He will sell out Taiwan, secretly at first, then bragging about it later. Xi will play Trump like an Erhu (a traditional 2-string instrument, similar to a violin). Anyone else would require a Guqin ( a 7-string zither-like instrument), but Trump is a simpleton, and subtlety is miles beyond him, evidenced by King Charles' visit. By the way, can we trade King Charles for Trump for a little while? The US can use a leader who believes in democracy (even as a king), and the British right-wing could use a dose of Trumpism, in the flesh. A Farage/Trump "bro fest" should clear their minds.
Trump can't sell out Taiwan, *because he doesn't own it*. Trump tried to sell out Ukraine and you saw how that went. Didn't help Putin much in the long run, did it?
Taiwan is entirely aware that the US is not reliable. Japan is backing Taiwan. Taiwan is pursuing close ties to Ukraine. If China attacks Taiwan, I would bet on Taiwan. The Chinese people have no stomach for foreign adventurism, and an invasion of Taiwan would be very, very difficult.
Just like Trump sold out Ukraine to Russia. It's so stupid all of this. US is shooting itself in the foot constantly. It's maddening and although at times I'm highly critical of the USA, I really do hope that not all will be lost come the midterms. It's more or less the same as the UK, great countries, terrible leadership.
Professor Timothy Snyder terms it 'Superpower Suicide', a never before seen and very very quick phenomenon.
I have a 2nd question; how is Saudi Arabia viewing the situation? They must be thoroughly p——d off with Trump, having lost a lot and gained nothing.
You hear two things. They want it over, but they also want Iran damaged. I think the Saudis are probably more disillusioned by this war than almost anyone.
Huh. That's interesting.
Which will prompt them to do what, I wonder? Become partners with China, too, to maintain a better balance?
The only way out of Trump’s dilemma, therefore America’s dilemma, is negotiation. That means using the Iranian specialists in the State Department, the nuclear negotiation specialists and scientists, and seriously negotiate. The Iranians have told us what their price is. I am certain that a deal can be made around the two sticking points…uranium enrichment and Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians have said they will negotiate on enrichment subject to controls. I am certain there is much they can be given to open the Strait. Will Trump send in a serious negotiating team? Doubtful.
Harold - are we sure such experts weren't all DOGEd, otherwise purged, or resigned? ...part of Trump's unilateral disarmament of expertise long before the fighting even began
They were fired the week before the war began.
No, we are not sure, but probably some remain, and others can be enlisted. The real problem is Trump’s paranoia, but I am hoping the tight spot he is in will induce him to try real negotiators, not real estate sales guys.
He only trusts his old real estate buddies.
Exactly.
And his Russian money-laundering Big Finance buddies at major US banks.
Right.
The following is attributed to the great English historian AJP Taylor: "The object of being a Great Power is to be able to fight a Great War. The only way of remaining a Great Power is not to fight one."
I am convinced that Trump has irrevocably damaged the US and that we will never recover. This is truly tragic for the entire world as the days where the US could represent a glimmer of hope and principled leadership are sadly over!
We are living in a post truth, post democratic, post rule of law, world where China is poised to dominate.
Strap in everyone this is going to be a BUMPY ride!
Next step is Taiwan is absorbed and US access to cutting edge chips is under Chinese control.
Thank you MAGATS! Your greedy, self righteous, bigoted ignorance has plunged the world into a very dark chapter from which frankly I doubt we will recover…
Actually, Lou, the numerous MIDDLE democratic powers in Europe, Canada, Australia, NZ and South Korea STILL 'represent a glimmer of hope and principled leadership' in the world.
No offence, but you are certainly assuming that all the light in the world shone out of the USA.
Not at all so. The USA was a hegemon, throwing its weight around.
We, the MIDDLE powers of the world, are committed to democracy and have in only the last 12 months implemented an amazing set of new treaties on trade and military matters AMONGST OURSELVES.
The lights are on.
Yes I am well aware that Europe seems to be awakening from its slumber and that this represents at least a glowing ember.
But they have yet to really join Ukraine in defeating the existential threat to the East. They haven’t even really mobilized their defense industry and they are still sucking at the tit of US tech which has and will be weaponized against them in the ongoing information war between hostile states and anti democratic billionaires.
That ember can be snuffed out in a heartbeat and I don’t believe people truly understand that.
Needless to say, you are greatly exaggerating. Such is often the American way, I regret to advise, and the world sees it. Good luck.
Don’t count America out yet. The electorate was looking for change in 2016 and the Democrats chose to run Clinton, part of the establishment. Then the Dems screwed up again by sticking to Biden til the last minute. Let’see what the primaries can produce in 2028.
I agree with your observations and I TRULY hope you are right, but so far I have not seen any indication that this is something that not only will we have an opportunity to actually do (given the obvious willingness to tamper with elections) but then if it did happen we would need some super strong leadership and a willingness to completely revamp a very broken political system and frankly I think that is an ask too big for even the most wildly optimistic among us. It would absolutely be a miracle!
Even so, he is on his way right now to sell the US national interests and Taiwan off to China in order save his ego and his sorry ass once again... I hope I am wrong but fear I am not.
So what I'm most afraid of is that Xi is so stupid and incompetent that he thinks he can take over Taiwan.
The US has not been the obstacle to taking over Taiwan since 1989. The obstacle is... Taiwan. China invading Taiwan is just as much a mistake as Russia invading Ukraine, *and Ukraine would be fully backing Taiwan*, along with Japan backing Taiwan. In that war, China could prove to have an army even less effective than the US or Russia.
It is the one scenario which could destroy the power of Beijing within five years. All Xi has to do to avoid it is... just not attack Taiwan.
When Hegseth said "Epic Fury decimated Iran's military”, out of sheer ignorance he actually told something truth-adjacent: having destroyed merely 10% of Iran’s military strength sounds about right.
Looks like on the question of how to post a comment at the right place in the discussion, my competence is positively Hegsethian.
This little adventure of Trumps has, very, very strong Suez vibes. Not exactly the same, but 1956 marked the definitive end of European Great Power pretensions, and this is now doing the same.