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George Newcombe's avatar

Thank you for this excellent, sober discussion of the state of the war, reasonable expectations and the way forward through provisions to Ukraine of considerably more long range high precision weapons so it can isolate Crimea and choke off logistics to the southern mainland. I am at a loss to explain the slow roll of these weapons by the US.

One other point, I tried to contribute to Come Back Alive, but all my CC attempts to pay were declined.

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Phillips P. OBrien's avatar

Appreciate that George. I think the slow delivery of such weapons by the US is precisely because it is Crimea, and Putin has spooked the administration about how he would react. Sorry to hear about the difficulty you are having paying Come Back Alive--it sometimes seems to happen to people outside Ukraine. All I can say is keep trying. All help is needed.

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Alexandre Plennevaux's avatar

Very interesting discussion!

I would indeed suspect AFU waits for spring and the arrival of the first F16s to be there to bridge the Dniepr and create a larger operation, and perhaps a dash at slashing the Russian rear so as to create a breakthrough that could trigger a Russian collapse.

Does it seem plausible to you ?

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Paul M Sotkiewicz's avatar

Excellent analysis! I had no issues hearing you and Mykola. It would help with each podcast to put a link to Come Back Alive and how to donate. Toward the end of the podcast, Mykola had a great insight that I think we should all be taking to heart: WW I was a positional fight until new technology and tactics were developed and embraced and this took nearly 4 years. And then drawing the linkage to Zaluzhny’s paper foreseeing the new tech and tactics that will help break the positional nature of the war.

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Jonathan Vernon-Hunt's avatar

Great stuff Phillips. Quality on all fronts excellent.

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Phillips P. OBrien's avatar

Thanks Jonathan.

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Punksta's avatar

Please explain HOW Ukraine has managed to push the Russian fleet back despite having no warships.

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Phillips P. OBrien's avatar

Wrote two pieces on that. Here is the second (which has the link to the first). Hope they make sense!

https://open.substack.com/pub/phillipspobrien/p/winning-a-war-at-sea-without-warships?r=1tgexa&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

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Kevin Matte's avatar

Every day is an excellent day to donate to Ukraine! And today is Giving Tuesday so it’s even better. Thanks for the podcast. Come Back Alive has some of my money in return. Wish it could be more.

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Nov 22, 2023
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Hamish's avatar

This episode is so much quieter than all the others podcasts I listen to!

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Phillips P. OBrien's avatar

Sorry--will work on that!

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Phillips P. OBrien's avatar

A few people have said that--but others say its find. Have you listened to it on Buzzsprout? Maybe its better there. https://www.buzzsprout.com/2279186/14014928-avdiivka-kherson-crimea-plus-general-zaluzhny-s-ideas-on-how-ukraine-can-win-the-war

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