18 Comments

I've missed you guys!!!

Listening to your commentary, I cannot help thinking about all that Russia has lost in this invasion. Putin must still be in shock. It was not 2014 again and he could NOT annex a whole sovereign nation, even from what I understand now was his fractured fairy tale of history between the two regions.

In addition to all the immediate losses and the human devastation Russia has caused, on a more strategic basis, Putin has discredited his army; and had his authority questioned with the Wagner rebellion, crippled if not soon to topple his economy, and, most probably degrading the quality of life in his country ... and, the list could go on.

I was reading about another example of the strategic costs to Russia. The Arctic is on my list to study.

The strategic importance of that region is considerable, where China has declared itself a "near Arctic" country. (Hmm). Discounting the near Arctic neighbors, seven or so countries claim Arctic territory. Since this war, two of those nations have become new NATO members. And because of the war, Russian development in the area has lagged. I bet you that was not on Putin's list of "Wants".

More immediately, in this mix, I doubt that adding NK forces will change a lot. Ukraine's restraint is admirable. Time will tell, but I honestly believe that a lot more can go wrong than right in that tenuous arrangement and in the interactions between two of the world's worst maniacs. Not to mention what a headache all this is causing China.

PS The Ukrainian made gifts I ordered as Christmas gifts have arrived, Now I need to convince myself to give them away and not keep them for myself. They are treasures.

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Listening to you, Phillips, and Mykola I felt for the first time you were both trying very hard to put the most positive spin on things as possible. I agree with everything you both said but I’m starting to break down myself on hope. I’m sure everyone feels it. It’s this sense that Ukraine is hanging on. With the West’s inane fear of standing up to Putin and thereby not equipping Ukraine properly it’s forcing her to go it alone. Russia’s short of troops in Kursk…..no problem…….bring in some soldiers from N Korea. NATO’s reaction……..good luck with that!

I’m trying to think of another situation in history where capable allies stood by and refused to ably help an ally. The only one I can come up with is Poland in 1939. With Germany and Russia picking over its host like carrion, France and the UK, even though both had declared war on Germany, did nothing. The whole world sat back and watched.

I’m sure there are other examples I’m missing but that’s the one that stands out to me since it’s the most recent.

What I can’t get over is the absolute arrogance and smugness of the US and Germany, both in particular, turning their backs on an innocent, vulnerable country like Ukraine fighting for its life while micromanaging the conflict and looking past it for an already decided outcome. They’ve washed their hands of it.

I can’t see anything changing after the US election. European NATO is not serious enough to take the initiative.

Of course, I hope I’m absolutely wrong on all this but deep down we can all see that Ukraine has been abandoned and it makes me want to cry. When this is all over, even if there is a very positive outcome for Ukraine, I will never forgive the West for its behaviour.

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Don, I console myself because at least we (the West) have done more than just throw a few sanctions (that get bypassed ) as we did in the case of the Crimea steal. This war will have no winners or losers since it will probably be a negotiated settlement. Korea dejas vu? While the war will have no winners or losers, the world stage will see Ukraine as the winner, regardless of the outcome. Ukraine has the recognition and admiration of the world now and it has brought Putin to his knees. Think about it? In what scenario did Putin think he would have to negotiate with NK? Territory is one thing and Putin may get some of that in ruins. World recognition and support is another. Putin made Ukraine a world player.

That is my two cents, and with inflation, it is probably worth less than that. My concern is that Ukraine is granted God's daily grace to keep the deaths and injuries of this war low for them. I have to admit I am not proud of the US's actions. We do not deal well with bullies.

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GR: well said by you and Don. Yes, this looks like a bitter stalemate for Ukraine, unless Harris wins and decisively breaks from Biden’s pusillanimous caution. Still, NATO and the EU can produce a strategic win for Ukraine out of this: immediate NATO membership once the shooting stops (ie, secure borders with Russia facing what it most loathes, NATO on its doorstep) and EU membership which will secure Ukraine’s economic future. And by the way, my guess is that the 11,000 NK troops will be slaughtered to a man if they are put into the cauldron. Ukraine is battle-hardened and tactically astute; NK hasn’t fought a war for 72 years. And it would be a humiliation for Kim Dong Un as well as for Putin.

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I certainly am praying for that strategic win for Ukraine, Will.

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Will, from your words to God's ears on NATO and the EU. A win from a Harris administration would be my wish for a miracle granted. My heart hurts for the people of Ukraine who have suffered so much in fighting what is really a part of the world's war for law and order.

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I think you & G Renner have plausible visions but they look unlikely to me.

Korea? The U.S. positioned military bases in Korea to make that possible.

NATO membership? What leverage does Ukraine hold to force Putin to agree to any such deep concession?

Russia itself may be degrading into a mess. But the China-Russia-North Korea-Iran- Syra BRICS-adjacent consortium seems determined to deal a bloody nose to the United States. Why the REpublican party is ready to enable such a destructive unraveling of U.S. global influence is bewildering.

I feel very strongly that no deal whatsoever will be made in 2025. The situation in that whole region is headed for instability and war, not a Korea-like cold peace.

I can imagine that Harris will react to the coming mess forcefully and with great enthusiasm from a desperate, reeling Europe. The western coalition still holds the upperhand in both soft and hard power. The holdup is leadership.

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You are certainly right G that Ukraine is a world player. She certainly has earned it.

Two things worry me a lot. One-Knowing Ukraine will not be granted membership status to NATO or to the EU until the fighting stops will push Putin to never stop fighting or agreeing to an armistice. And Two-Let’s say the war stops in 2025 or 26 and NATO says we’ll grant you membership status in 2 years time and we’ll guarantee your security during that 2 year wait period. I don’t know if I could trust that guaranteed security promise. This is the same type trust that the West promised Ukraine in the Budapest Memorandum.

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Hopefully Harris will be elected, and if so, I am optimistic that she'll throw Biden's feckless strategy in the garbage and support Ukraine in the way it's needed all along. Yes I 'm keeping hope alive...working to keep hope alive...I see it as a civic duty at this point. That the US and Germany and France and the UK could blunder so badly as to be cowed by Putin into surrendering Ukraine and the hope for ongoing peace on Russia's borders is beyond my capacity to accept...till it happens. That Biden and Co. have already done so fills me with shame and anger as an American.

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Trying to think of another similar situation?

Look up the reaction of China's allies to the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1931. Weak sanctions. Extremely weak sanctions. And a report. That was it.

Chinese people were furious and did not forget.

Stronger sanctions, which actually started hurting Imperial Japan, only started coming in after Japan started invading the rest of China in 1937.

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https://www.loc.gov/item/2021687906/

BTW, Russia is doomed. The only question is when the next Russian civil war will start. My money's on 2026

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Given the refusal to supply Ukraine with long-range ability, what options for increased force are there ?

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They need so many things desperately, with IFVs being near the top of the list. Ukraine has lots of new brigades but many have no armoured protection. The US has thousands of unwanted Bradley M2s in storage. All in good condition and with their value written down to zero. It is baffling that they have not been donated given the disproportionate effectiveness of the few hundred M2s that have been sent already. Far more useful than any other armoured vehicle including MBTs.

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Phillips, love the high quality work as always.

Robert Woodward’s book ‘War’ identified two reasons the US has declined Ukraine’s request for the ranged, precision weapons.

First, the book reports the same intelligence apparatus that discovered that Putin did intend to invade also discovered that the Russians were intending to utilize tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

Second, Woodward’s book also identifies a concern that the Russians would give the Houthis anti-ship missiles that would could sink American ships keeping the sea lanes open.

Your thoughts?

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Woodward interviewed senior officials who provided arguments that justified all of their (and ultimately Biden's) decisions in Ukraine. Woodward acted as a stenographer.

The same people who thought Ukraine could never resist Russia's conventional power also believed appeasement of Russia was justified to prevent nuclear war. These arguments have raged for 3 years. We know that the caution/appeasement advocates won the day. Woodward's reporting just repeats the faulty analysis that brought us to our current unfortunate state.

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Makes sense.

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Unfortunately, it's obvious that neither Europe nor the U.S. will do anything more than wring their hands about the North Korean entry into the war, so Kim will send more troops.

Why can't they remember WWII?

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Things will get so bad that the NATO members will not have the option to turn away.

It almost doesn't matter if Trump withdraws from NATO. Hell, it might even be best to get rid of an alliance so subverted by the likes of Hungary & Turkey. A new coalition will form with or without NATO.

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