Thanks Phillips and Mykola. Will have a listen shortly. Will be good to hear your perspective.
They New York Times was up to it’s defeatist narrative yesterday with a story about Ukrainian forces being pushed out of Krynky, when the reality on the ground is that it is very hot and humid and the Russian forces there are suffering from disease - cholera I do believe - hence the Ukrainian forces withdrew to let nature take it’s course.
Sounds like the Ukrainian general staff no longer felt it was worth holding. Understanding the value of the campaign will be impossible unless we know what losses the Russians suffered. They look to be considerable.
The action that Ukraine sustained on the left bank of the Dnipro was a fixing operation in which a limited number of Ukrainian troops was able to fix in place a disproportionately greater number of Russian troops for about six months. From what I have read from Ukrainian and other OSINT sources there was a Russian VDV (airborne) and another infantry division.
Thanks, but I meant: the.reality on the ground is that it is very hot and humid and the Russian forces there are suffering from disease - cholera I do believe -
I didn’t read that. I heard it from Chuck Pfarrer, a retired US Navy Seal Team 6 squadron commander who has a segment on Tuesdays and Thursdays on the Mriya Report Twitter Space - their website is www.mriyareport.org - his segment is called “Bullet Points”.
He seems to have his ear on the ground and provides good analysis of the situation on the zero line.
The Mriya Report shows are recorded live and put onto Spotify as podcasts. Here is a link to the last Bullet Points show. I’m not sure if this is the one where Chuck mentioned the cholera though.
However his update the other night gelled with other sources of information.
1. There is a heatwave affecting southern and Eastern Europe. A lot of my Ukrainian twitter followers are posting updates about the high temperatures, lack of air conditioning due to the power outages caused by the Russian terror bombing.
2. The area of the left bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson region is swampy. There are a lot of channels and tributaries of the Dnipro and, since the destruction of the Nova Kovhovka dam last year the Dnipro is running unregulated by that Hydro power plant.
3. The Russians are notorious for mistreating its troops and notably General Popov was removed as commander of the VDV forces in the Kherson area of operations for being too candid in his complaints about his troops not being adequately supplied etc.
I’m not sure if there is any other sources for the news about sickness in the Russian forces - I will have a dig around on the Russian milbloggers telegram channels - they sometimes pass on unit complaints.
Further to this - have had a look at the Institute For The Study Of War, Russo Ukrainian War daily update: for July 19th
Kherson Area of Operation:
Positional engagements continued in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky, on July 18 and July 19.[68] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Krynky.[69] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces do not have sufficient personnel in the Kherson direction to conduct tactical frontline rotations and that Russian forces fighting on the east bank and on islands in the Dnipro River Delta are fatigued. [70]
The reference 70 is a telegram post by the DVA Majors Telegram Channel which I have quoted below:
He is not overly positive….
“Kherson direction, they write to us:
I wish you good health!
I am writing to you from the Kherson direction! Finally got the long-awaited vacation in civilization! At this time, I want to take a couple of minutes to describe some problems that depend on each of us:
The first is vacation . No one forcibly leaves anyone in a position, unless, of course, there are people who can replace the fighter for this purpose . But they are not , and this must be recognized.
Second . This should not be kept silent, but on the contrary, it is worth raising this issue: there are not enough people, which leads to fatigue in the personnel of the units performing combat missions along our coast and in the floodplain of the Dnieper River. This applies to all departments. We need to talk about this problem, because in the understanding of the civilian population, against the backdrop of various kinds of news, there are so many of us here that we will not need help and replenishment for another decade. Maybe things are better with the infantry, but with the specialists... I’d better keep silent.
The third concerns those men who decide to sign a contract and come to us. Study, study and study again. Ask and pester your instructors about the specifics of combat operations in a particular direction, take courses, and so on. After all, it’s not a very good situation when young green contract soldiers arrive and instead of replacing personnel who want to rest in the rear or go on vacation for the first time in 10-15 months, they get stupid, in my opinion, wounds and go to the hospital, but the fighter and remains in position.
I hope I didn’t offend anyone or write anything bad. Take care of yourselves, guys!
I wish I had time to listen to more of the podcasts but this was one to remember. Mykola with his phrase “linguistic equilibrium” will stand out as a great quote that speaks volumes about where we are with Ukraine and NATO (meaning the US and Germany).
Listening to your analysis, Russia might be in a holding pattern - just holding their own and trying to wait out the US election, as you mentioned. While there has been little progress on the ground, I cringe when I read about more infrastructure damage. Some discussion on that and any ideas on plans to help through the winter would be appreciated - not to mention the status of the nuclear plant being held hostage.
I would say Russia is trying to take as much territory as possible before the US election--hoping Trump wins and they can keep it. The issue is that they can only take little bits at a time
Dr o'brien - any thoughts on the reports of Zelensky-Trump phone call and subsequent Zelensky statement about the goal of ending the 'hot' phase of the war by the end of 2024?
Thanks Phillips and Mykola. Will have a listen shortly. Will be good to hear your perspective.
They New York Times was up to it’s defeatist narrative yesterday with a story about Ukrainian forces being pushed out of Krynky, when the reality on the ground is that it is very hot and humid and the Russian forces there are suffering from disease - cholera I do believe - hence the Ukrainian forces withdrew to let nature take it’s course.
Sounds like the Ukrainian general staff no longer felt it was worth holding. Understanding the value of the campaign will be impossible unless we know what losses the Russians suffered. They look to be considerable.
Where did you read that?
Here is a link to the article -
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/world/europe/ukraine-war-dnipro-river.html
The action that Ukraine sustained on the left bank of the Dnipro was a fixing operation in which a limited number of Ukrainian troops was able to fix in place a disproportionately greater number of Russian troops for about six months. From what I have read from Ukrainian and other OSINT sources there was a Russian VDV (airborne) and another infantry division.
Thanks, but I meant: the.reality on the ground is that it is very hot and humid and the Russian forces there are suffering from disease - cholera I do believe -
Where did you read that?
Hi Judith. Ah, sorry about that.
I didn’t read that. I heard it from Chuck Pfarrer, a retired US Navy Seal Team 6 squadron commander who has a segment on Tuesdays and Thursdays on the Mriya Report Twitter Space - their website is www.mriyareport.org - his segment is called “Bullet Points”.
He seems to have his ear on the ground and provides good analysis of the situation on the zero line.
The Mriya Report shows are recorded live and put onto Spotify as podcasts. Here is a link to the last Bullet Points show. I’m not sure if this is the one where Chuck mentioned the cholera though.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6JLf5S1dG6GxcsYagcq3ej?si=Dn6Jsh08RVmRvB1T1NMFWA
This is a link to Chuck’s Kherson update from the 19th July
https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1814331556871225833
However his update the other night gelled with other sources of information.
1. There is a heatwave affecting southern and Eastern Europe. A lot of my Ukrainian twitter followers are posting updates about the high temperatures, lack of air conditioning due to the power outages caused by the Russian terror bombing.
2. The area of the left bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson region is swampy. There are a lot of channels and tributaries of the Dnipro and, since the destruction of the Nova Kovhovka dam last year the Dnipro is running unregulated by that Hydro power plant.
3. The Russians are notorious for mistreating its troops and notably General Popov was removed as commander of the VDV forces in the Kherson area of operations for being too candid in his complaints about his troops not being adequately supplied etc.
I’m not sure if there is any other sources for the news about sickness in the Russian forces - I will have a dig around on the Russian milbloggers telegram channels - they sometimes pass on unit complaints.
Hope this helps.
Further to this - have had a look at the Institute For The Study Of War, Russo Ukrainian War daily update: for July 19th
Kherson Area of Operation:
Positional engagements continued in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky, on July 18 and July 19.[68] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Krynky.[69] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces do not have sufficient personnel in the Kherson direction to conduct tactical frontline rotations and that Russian forces fighting on the east bank and on islands in the Dnipro River Delta are fatigued. [70]
The reference 70 is a telegram post by the DVA Majors Telegram Channel which I have quoted below:
He is not overly positive….
“Kherson direction, they write to us:
I wish you good health!
I am writing to you from the Kherson direction! Finally got the long-awaited vacation in civilization! At this time, I want to take a couple of minutes to describe some problems that depend on each of us:
The first is vacation . No one forcibly leaves anyone in a position, unless, of course, there are people who can replace the fighter for this purpose . But they are not , and this must be recognized.
Second . This should not be kept silent, but on the contrary, it is worth raising this issue: there are not enough people, which leads to fatigue in the personnel of the units performing combat missions along our coast and in the floodplain of the Dnieper River. This applies to all departments. We need to talk about this problem, because in the understanding of the civilian population, against the backdrop of various kinds of news, there are so many of us here that we will not need help and replenishment for another decade. Maybe things are better with the infantry, but with the specialists... I’d better keep silent.
The third concerns those men who decide to sign a contract and come to us. Study, study and study again. Ask and pester your instructors about the specifics of combat operations in a particular direction, take courses, and so on. After all, it’s not a very good situation when young green contract soldiers arrive and instead of replacing personnel who want to rest in the rear or go on vacation for the first time in 10-15 months, they get stupid, in my opinion, wounds and go to the hospital, but the fighter and remains in position.
I hope I didn’t offend anyone or write anything bad. Take care of yourselves, guys!
Two majors”
Link - https://t.me/dva_majors/47650
Thanks very much for all of that information!
Excellent update from both of you. Thank you.
Appreciate that Alan!
I wish I had time to listen to more of the podcasts but this was one to remember. Mykola with his phrase “linguistic equilibrium” will stand out as a great quote that speaks volumes about where we are with Ukraine and NATO (meaning the US and Germany).
It was a great quote--and not bad for someone who only recently has been speaking English regularly
Listening to your analysis, Russia might be in a holding pattern - just holding their own and trying to wait out the US election, as you mentioned. While there has been little progress on the ground, I cringe when I read about more infrastructure damage. Some discussion on that and any ideas on plans to help through the winter would be appreciated - not to mention the status of the nuclear plant being held hostage.
I would say Russia is trying to take as much territory as possible before the US election--hoping Trump wins and they can keep it. The issue is that they can only take little bits at a time
Dr o'brien - any thoughts on the reports of Zelensky-Trump phone call and subsequent Zelensky statement about the goal of ending the 'hot' phase of the war by the end of 2024?
Ukrainians can see there is a good chance of a Trump victory and are trying to adjust to that eventuality.